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Unemployment rate at 8.1%, only 115K jobs added, participation rate shrinks again to new low
Hotair ^ | 05/04/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 05/04/2012 6:35:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

The April jobs report fell short of analysts expectations, as only 115,000 jobs were added. Consensus expectations had been in the 165K-170K range, which still would have been below the rate jobs were added in February, January, and December. While the jobless rate dropped slightly, the number of jobs added came in short of March's disappointing level:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.

Both the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) and the unemployment rate (8.1 percent) changed little in April. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.5 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (24.9 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed little or no change in April, while the rate for blacks (13.0 percent) declined over the month. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in April (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.1 million in April. These individuals made up 41.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 759,000. (See table A-12.)

So how did the jobless rate drop? The same way it’s been dropping all along — people exiting the workforce:

The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little.

That’s a new 30-year low in the participation rate. Here’s the chart from the BLS for the last 30 years:

Note that the biggest and steepest plunge has taken place since the Obama recovery started in June 2009.

The U-6 rate held steady in April nonetheless at 14.5%, even with the increased exodus of workers from the workforce.

Update: CNBC notes that the actual employment level in the US fell by 169,000:

April’s job report lived up to muted expectations, with the economy creating a meager 115,000 jobs during the month as the unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent. …

Though the headline number indicated job creation, the total employment level for the month actually fell 169,000.

“This remains a weak economy, and the job counts in March and April — which have come in at considerably below 200,000 per month — may perhaps continue right through the summer,” said Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board.

Wall Street economists had been expecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics report to show 170,000 new jobs created and the unemployment rate holding steady at 8.2 percent.

That weakness will keep jobs and the economy at the top of the list for voter concerns, and keep Obama and his campaign on their mission to talk about any other distraction they can find from it.

Update II: Zero Hedge notes that 522,000 people left the workforce in April, or more than four times the number of net jobs gained in the BLS report.

Update III: Yes, but what does Reuters say? The rose-colored-glasses wire service calls this a “mixed” report:

Employers decreased hiring for the second straight month in April but the unemployment rate still fell to 8.1 percent, giving mixed messages about the economy’s strength ahead of President Barack Obama’s November re-election bid.

Employers added 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Labor Department said on Friday.

The reading keeps fears alive that the U.S. economy is losing momentum and dampens hopes that a stretch of strong winter hiring signaled a turning point for the recovery.

The unemployment rate ticked a tenth of a point lower to a three-year low, as people left the work force. The jobless rate is derived from a separate survey of households, which showed a drop in the number of jobs in April.

So what was the “mixed” part? The BLS adjusted the jobs gains numbers in February and March upward, but you have to love how Reuters frames it:

Still, the government revised upward its initial estimates for payroll growth in February and March by a combined 53,000. That left the six-month average of job growth at 197,000, nearly exactly where it would have been had April job growth come in as expected at 170,000.

But, er … it didn’t. So what does that tell us about the economy and jobs growth? It ain’t a mixed message.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: jobs; unemployment

1 posted on 05/04/2012 6:35:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The recession is over. Our economy is growing. Everyone is employed.

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.


2 posted on 05/04/2012 6:37:44 AM PDT by NoKoolAidforMe (I'm clinging to my God and my guns. You can keep the change.)
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To: SeekAndFind
From ZERO HEDGE:

It is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to
88,419,000.  This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.

Labor force participation Rate:

People not in labor force:



3 posted on 05/04/2012 6:37:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind; All

I was surprised the CNN article on this openly said fairly on in the headline that the drop was due to people leaving the workforce.


4 posted on 05/04/2012 6:42:16 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: SeekAndFind

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/04/a-very-european-jobs-recovery-u-s-labor-force-participation-falls-to-63-6-88-4m-not-in-labor-force-teenage-unemployment-rises-to-22-8/

Found this on Zero Hedge. Some additional charts and tables that show how BAD things are getting.

It it a EUROPEAN jobs recovery. that is, a SOCIALIST job recovery.


5 posted on 05/04/2012 6:44:49 AM PDT by whitedog57
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To: SeekAndFind
We will all be Julia. Our last job, working in a community garden.
6 posted on 05/04/2012 6:47:35 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: SeekAndFind
ZERO AKA Mr. Hooky Junk (A Cajun Term) will cook the books with the help of the LSM to show unemployment at 5% by October.
Guaranteed. . . . . . . .
7 posted on 05/04/2012 6:51:02 AM PDT by DeaconRed (Cold War Veteran. . . . US Army Security Agency 1964-1968- I have now gone pecan.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The chart below, which incorporates pre-recession assumptions about labor force growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows how the jobs gap has evolved since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, and how long it will take to close under different assumptions for job growth. The solid line shows the net number of jobs lost since the Great Recession began. The broken lines track how long it will take to close the jobs gap under alternative assumptions about the rate of job creation going forward.

If the economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, then it will take until February 2020—8 years—to close the jobs gap. Given a more optimistic rate of 321,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 1990s, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels by April 2016—not for another four years.

8 posted on 05/04/2012 6:52:37 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

Given an expectation of a BIG decline in the participation rate on November 2 (Friday prior to November 6), I’m expecting a big increase in the rate on October 26, October 19, perhaps October 12 as well...

Some bureaucrats are playing with the inputs to the unemployment rate with the understanding that most Americans will be mostly paying attention to that resulting number, and the media will carry that message in full force.


9 posted on 05/04/2012 7:02:29 AM PDT by C210N (Wanted: Tagline)
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To: rwfromkansas

RE: I was surprised the CNN article on this openly said fairly on in the headline that the drop was due to people leaving the workforce.

______________________

It’s coming to a point where one cannot ignore the labor participation rate any longer. The U6 figures will then figure more prominently.

You can’t put a happy face on the unemployment rate figures when PEOPLE REALLY ARE NOT WORKING.

At the rate this is going, we’ll have MORE PEOPLE DROPPING OUT OF THE WORKFORCE and by November, the unemployment rate approaching 7%.

But if you don’t have a job and know that your neighbor, college grad kid and friends don’t have a job either, eventually you’ll know the figures are BS.


10 posted on 05/04/2012 7:04:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: TornadoAlley3
We will all be Julia. Our last job, working in a community garden.

Don't you mean volunteering in a community garden? Or is it an Agricultural collective?

11 posted on 05/04/2012 7:06:46 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: C210N

The Fed’s unemployment statistics are about as phoney as the Fed’s CPI/inflation statistics. Phoney baloney.

Fortunately for Obaba and the new American Fascist Party (aka Democrats), with Dem voters, you really CAN fool all the people all the time.

Jeez! But we as a people have become dumbed down!


12 posted on 05/04/2012 7:07:32 AM PDT by OldArmy52 (Scratch a Democrat, expose a Fascist.)
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To: C210N

The 115K new jobs that were created was well below the 160K that analysts had expected.

And some of the internals are distressing too.

The public sector is ugly.

There were 15K public sector jobs lost, worse than the 5K that was expected.

That’s worse than last month, and that’s worse than the virtually flat level of jobs created than we saw two months ago.

Remember, two months ago we were hopeful that this meant that the public sector bleeding has stopped.

This is a big deal, since the public sector is what’s been creaming GDP and jobs.

What’s more, this news comes amid news that California is missing badly on its tax goals for April.


13 posted on 05/04/2012 7:09:05 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: whitedog57

14 posted on 05/04/2012 7:10:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Rush keeps talking about the fewer jobs causing the rate to drop, but that is silly. It is the fewer people. Obama is making people disappear - hopefully only virtually.

The fewer numbers of workers is what drops the unemployment rate, not fewer jobs.

Any sensible person can see the trend is impossible. Unless people are dying, retiring or leaving the country, that flatting of the chart starting in 2008 is as phoney as a 3 dollar bill. You can take the chart back to 1948 using the bls.gov website Top searches and see that what happened starting in 2008 is VERY unusual and has not happened in the recorded history of the bls statistics. In fact, data that goes back during and before the GREAT DEPRESSION showed an steady increase in American workers. But, Enter Obama, master magician and conman extraordinaire. Now our workforce starts disappearing for the first time in our history!!!!

15 posted on 05/04/2012 7:12:42 AM PDT by FreeAtlanta (Liberty and Justice for ALL)
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To: TornadoAlley3

No, we won’t.

The money to support Julia has to come from somewhere.


16 posted on 05/04/2012 7:13:13 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Journalists first; then lawyers.)
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To: SeekAndFind

To quote Mr. Mom, “You’re doing it wrong.”


17 posted on 05/04/2012 7:13:23 AM PDT by I still care (I miss my friends, bagels, and the NYC skyline - but not the taxes. I love the South.)
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To: NoKoolAidforMe
I've gotten to the point that I don't believe much of what the government says, and the unemployment statistics are what I doubt the most. I would guess that about 60% of the families have someone out of work in my upper middle class neighborhood, and no, I don't live in Detroit. I'm sure that most aren't counted in 0bama's stats, because they've either exhausted benefits, or are too proud to claim them.

0bama's ugly face will be on TV and the idiot MSM announcer chosen to shill for him, will announce that his policies are working and unemployment is down! This will reach a crescendo right before the election, whether anyone gets hired or not.

18 posted on 05/04/2012 7:16:30 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Sworn to Defend The Constitution Against ALL Enemies, Foreign and Domestic. So Help Me GOD!)
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To: SeekAndFind
The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.

Related to this is the fact that legal and illegal Mexicans and others from Central America have been returning to the motherland south of the border at rates that exceed the illegals heading north. And its not just illegal aliens heading home: I've read several articles over the last few weeks about young legal Indians and Chinese - some of whom were born here to immigrant parents -- moving to India and China because of the abundance of entrepreneurial opportunities.

19 posted on 05/04/2012 7:18:13 AM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: SeekAndFind
I am sick of these convoluted, numbers twisting Obama loving bureaucrats. Unemployed should be considered almost all people are age 16 and up who are not working at least 20 hours a week.

If you are married and staying at home out of choice, then you should not be counted as unemployed. If you are retired and not seeking work, then you should not be considered unemployed.

20 posted on 05/04/2012 7:22:06 AM PDT by FreeAtlanta (Liberty and Justice for ALL)
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To: TornadoAlley3
We will all be Julia. Our last job, working in a community garden.

And when we die, we will be buried in those gardens. You know, circle of life...

21 posted on 05/04/2012 7:22:09 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (My dream ticket for 2012 is John Galt & Dagny Taggart!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Wouldn’t be beyond the ‘rats to take from whatever stimuli accounts with money in them they can muster, in October, and Tout big time - hey look, “We are Creating Jobs!”, while they create temporary poll jobs for the election, where the tasks include driving elderly to the polls, manning polling stations, manning polling station counters, helping those voters needing help (ie, provisional ballots, ID “problems”). While these jobs would be temporary, there would be a promise to the best “performers” for future employment in the government, if things work “out”.

Oh, expect the above bigtime in certain states in “need”... you know, so-called swing states.


22 posted on 05/04/2012 7:23:17 AM PDT by C210N (Wanted: Tagline)
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To: SeekAndFind

1/2 million people drop out of the jobs market. This is more than the entire population of the city of Los Vegas, or Oklahoma city just magically disapeared from the job rolls and unemployment ticked down.

They are just F’ing with us now!


23 posted on 05/04/2012 7:24:13 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Labyrinthos
I believe a lot of people are deporting, but not enough to show what is happening with the workforce graphs. People are being "magically" removed to artificially drop the unemployment percentage.

Any man who who lie in his autobiography about a compilation girlfriend will do anything. His flunkies in the bls are trying to help, because they think Democrats will be able to keep their salaries and bonuses high. Little do they realize what will happen when our economic system collapses because of government debt.

24 posted on 05/04/2012 7:28:31 AM PDT by FreeAtlanta (Liberty and Justice for ALL)
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To: SeekAndFind

My county’s real estate valuation just went down...it had stayed steady through the recession, but the appraisers could no longer keep them steady with a straight face.

Of course, this means tax revenues will drop...and this fall, our local budget hearings will be very animated. I see lots of public sector layoffs coming. I bet this is not an isolated case; and, we will see this happen all over the country.

Another revenue drop - food stamps. There is no sales tax on items purchased with them in many states. As their use goes up, local revenues go down...more government layoffs.

We have set ourselves up for a quick spiral.

Fundamentally, I do think it is good to shed public jobs, and gain private ones...but if the losses outpace the gains, its not good.


25 posted on 05/04/2012 7:55:31 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: SeekAndFind
I remember when Bush was President and you needed 450,000
jobs to stay even. Now 150,000 jobs to stay even.

Obama has got it made.

26 posted on 05/04/2012 8:18:30 AM PDT by factmart
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To: SeekAndFind

Any Republican who doesn’t soundly tar and feather Obama with the job numbers this campaign is not worth his salt.


27 posted on 05/04/2012 8:23:48 AM PDT by OrangeHoof (Evil never reveals the truth until it's too late to flee.)
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To: The Sons of Liberty

The good thing is that it takes people a long time to buy into it...even in the past when the economy started recovering right before the election, it didn’t help the candidate much since it was too late.

I think people will still be very pessimistic regardless due to what they actually see on the ground.


28 posted on 05/04/2012 8:23:48 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

As much as it hurts the Country and me personally, I pray the economy stays in the tank until after election day. It will be our only chance to rid ourselves of the communist scourge that has infected us.


29 posted on 05/04/2012 8:27:57 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Sworn to Defend The Constitution Against ALL Enemies, Foreign and Domestic. So Help Me GOD!)
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To: SeekAndFind

clearly another manufactured number.....just take some more people off the table and the rate goers down.....all BS from bambi


30 posted on 05/04/2012 8:32:20 AM PDT by The Wizard (Madam President is my President now and in the future)
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To: The Sons of Liberty
As much as it hurts the Country and me personally, I pray the economy stays in the tank until after election day. It will be our only chance to rid ourselves of the communist scourge that has infected us.

What you said, plus as much as I would hate it, I hope gas is around $8/gallon on election day, since that's one thing the drive bys can't hide from the sheeple.

31 posted on 05/04/2012 8:42:59 AM PDT by Marathoner (At least Ann Romney won't tell us what to eat.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Polls and government figures are equal to fairy tales.


32 posted on 05/04/2012 8:47:23 AM PDT by bmwcyle (I am ready to serve Jesus on Earth because the GOP failed again)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t read this chart as jobs we lost. I read this chart as jobs we never should have had.

That entire 30 year arch of maximized workforce participation came from and only from, debt. Massive debt. That is the rise and fall of a massive debt bubble expresses as the jobs gained and lost resulting from said rise and fall.

That chart mirrors the home ownership rates during the housing bubble. It is identical in nature. It is not that we lost so many home owners, but that we had so many people that should never have been sold homes because they had no way to pay for them.

Guess waht? That workforce participation chart is the same -— we should never have created those jobs because they were not a product of savings and wealth creation, but of debt.

In both cases the rise and fall was based on funny money, not fundamentals.

The chart is just a symptom or indicator of our failure to create real wealth through savings and investment.


33 posted on 05/04/2012 9:10:46 AM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (REPEAL OBAMACARE. Nothing else matters.)
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To: The Sons of Liberty

this depression will not be televised.

(we’re going to get Messiah 2.0 )


34 posted on 05/04/2012 1:07:27 PM PDT by TurboZamboni (Looting the future to bribe the present)
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