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Indiana, N Carolina, and W Va Test Romney and Paul Support (Vote PAUL to show Romney's Weakness)
UMN ^ | May 7, 2012 | Eric Ostermeier

Posted on 05/08/2012 6:54:16 AM PDT by xzins

Tuesday's primaries are three of the nine contests in the 2008 and 2012 cycles held when the presumptive GOP nominee and Ron Paul were the only active candidates left in the race

While the most closely-watched contest on Tuesday may be the Indiana Republican U.S. Senate primary battle between six-term incumbent Dick Lugar and Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, there will still be a few things to keep an eye on at the top of the ticket in the Hoosier State, North Carolina, and West Virginia.

For these three presidential primaries will be the first in which Mitt Romney faces only one opponent on the ballot who has not yet suspended his campaign - Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

Paul's campaign has had a bit of a resurgence of late, with strong showings in the delegate selection phase in caucus states like Iowa, Minnesota, and Maine.

The primaries on Tuesday in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia will be a good test both of Mitt Romney's popularity at this stage of the campaign vis-à-vis John McCain in 2008, as well as Ron Paul's own base of support.

These three states, along with the upcoming primaries in Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota, each also featured two-man races in 2008 with McCain and Paul.

And so, with Congressman Paul's support significantly higher this cycle throughout the primary season, as well as voters not coalescing around Romney's campaign compared to other presumptive nominees in Republican Party history, expect more scrutiny over Romney's ability to turn out the GOP base in November if he fails to receive at least two-thirds of the vote Tuesday.

Only one of the remaining 12 primary states, Montana, is in classic "Ron Paul country" - the Texas congressman has excelled in both cycles in northern border states - although he also may perform particularly well in Oregon and South Dakota in the coming weeks.

So how much of a boost can Paul expect to receive in his one-on-one challenge against the former Massachusetts governor?

In 2008, Congressman Paul averaged 7.4 percent in the 41 state primaries and caucuses held before Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race on March 4th - leaving the field open to just McCain and Paul.

That left just two active candidates in the race (with the occasional ex-candidate still lingering on the ballot) for the remaining 12 contests.

Paul averaged 12.4 percent of the vote in those dozen primaries, or an increase of only 5.0 points when he had a one-on-one matchup against John McCain.

In 2012, Paul has averaged 15.7 percent of the primary and caucus vote through the first 37 contests (excluding U.S. territories).

Representative Paul has at least doubled his percentage of vote received from 2008 to 2012 in nearly half of these contests (17 states): Ohio (+100.0 percent), Arizona (+104.8), Iowa (+114.0), Florida (+118.8), Georgia (+127.6), Wisconsin (+138.3), Delaware (+152.4), New York (+153.2), Missouri (+171.1), Oklahoma (+190.9), New Hampshire (+197.4), Connecticut (+221.4), Massachusetts (+251.9), South Carolina (+261.1), Rhode Island (+266.2), Vermont (+283.3), and Virginia (+800.0).

That includes double-digit improvements on his 2008 tally in seven states: Iowa (+11.4 points), Maine (+17.8), New Hampshire (+15.2), Rhode Island (+17.3), Vermont (+18.7), and Virginia (+36.0).

The only two states in which Paul has received a lower percentage of the vote in 2012 compared to 2008 are Idaho and Pennsylvania.

However, when Paul won 15.5 percent in Pennsylvania in 2008, he was the only active candidate in the race other than McCain. Paul fell just shy of that mark in April with 13.2 percent with Gingrich still officially in the race tallying 10.5 percent.

The same is true in Idaho, where Paul and McCain were the only candidates on the primary ballot in 2008 when he notched 23.7 percent of the vote. In the 2012 Idaho caucuses, Paul was one of four active candidates on the ballot when he won 18.1 percent.

In Tuesday's primary states four years ago, Paul only received 7.7 percent in Indiana, 7.2 percent in North Carolina, and 5.0 percent in West Virginia.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; paul; romney; romneytruthfile
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1 posted on 05/08/2012 6:54:26 AM PDT by xzins
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To: xzins

If I lived in one of those states, I would vote for Paul. It’s hard to believe that he’s our last hope to stop the big government liberal from MA, but that’s his role. I want a contested convention, where the adults in the party (if any) can reconsider whether shoving Romney down our throats is working as planned.


2 posted on 05/08/2012 6:57:17 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Can we afford as much government as welfare-addicted voters demand?)
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To: Pollster1

Vote Romney to defeat Obama.


3 posted on 05/08/2012 6:59:33 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way)
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To: Pollster1

Vote Romney to defeat Obama.


4 posted on 05/08/2012 6:59:33 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way)
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To: Pollster1

Vote Romney to defeat Obama.


5 posted on 05/08/2012 6:59:33 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way)
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To: Pollster1
My Pennsylvania vote for Gingrich really surprised and dismayed me (the results, I mean).

Gingrich would be tearing the zero campaign to shreds by now, especially reponding to Axleneck and the other accusers that leave mittens staring at the headlights .... and it's not even dusk yet ... too early for headlights.

6 posted on 05/08/2012 7:01:22 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: xzins

Voted before Newt pulled out. If we went to the polls today would have voted for Paul....Lot’s of support for him here.

Only saw four Lugar signs. Two in each of two yards. Just feet apart. Lots of “Fire Lugar” and Mourdock signs.

No one here is crossing over because there is a big D race (5 condidates) to run against Todd Young.


7 posted on 05/08/2012 7:02:48 AM PDT by hoosiermama
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To: Andrei Bulba

Next time you take a dump, don’t flush before looking for a clue.


8 posted on 05/08/2012 7:02:58 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: Andrei Bulba

ABOR

Romney will lose.

The Convention needs support for dumping liberal Mitt.

VOTE Paul!


9 posted on 05/08/2012 7:03:12 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: xzins

Here in Indiana, Gingrich and Santorum are still on the ballot.


10 posted on 05/08/2012 7:03:33 AM PDT by caver (Obama: Home of the Whopper)
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To: caver

Santorum was already gone when Pa had it’s primary and Santorum pulled a pretty good number. (I forget, I think in the high 20’s or low 30’s)


11 posted on 05/08/2012 7:05:56 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: hoosiermama

We need to give the GOP convention solid reasons for dumping Mitt Romney.

If they don’t, they’ll lose.

If you know you’re going to lose, then why continue down that path?


12 posted on 05/08/2012 7:07:36 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: xzins

“Romney will lose.”

I am sorry that you are so eager to see Obama re-elected over Romney, but that prediction is way off ...

Romney up 5 ...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2881233/posts


13 posted on 05/08/2012 7:10:03 AM PDT by WOSG (Anyone But Obama)
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To: xzins

I’d vote for the nutjob over the Socialist.


14 posted on 05/08/2012 7:10:30 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (The Presidential Race is about the relative light reflectivity of your Slavemaster.)
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To: xzins

Newts name was on top of my ballot....Don’t know about the rest of the state. He may pull the ABM vote. OTOH there have been a lot of Paul signs up for years. Big following in southern Indiana.


15 posted on 05/08/2012 7:10:55 AM PDT by hoosiermama
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To: xzins

“If you know you’re going to lose, then why continue down that path?”

Exactly. Why keep pushing Ron Paul when the primary has already been decided and is over?


16 posted on 05/08/2012 7:12:04 AM PDT by WOSG (Anyone But Obama)
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To: Andrei Bulba

NO to Willard and NO to Zero.


17 posted on 05/08/2012 7:13:04 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: WOSG

Willard doesn’t have the delegates and WHY are you so anxious for us NOT to stop the Socialist abomination ?


18 posted on 05/08/2012 7:14:05 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: xzins
Paul's campaign has had a bit of a resurgence of late, with strong showings in the delegate selection phase in caucus states like Iowa, Minnesota, and Maine.

Is it a "resurgence" when you lose the meaningless beauty contest and win the vote that actually matters?

19 posted on 05/08/2012 7:16:15 AM PDT by mvpel (Michael Pelletier)
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To: WOSG

Romney does not have the requisite number of delegates to be the GOP candidate.


20 posted on 05/08/2012 7:16:15 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (When we cease to be good we'll cease to be great. Be for Goode.)
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To: Pollster1

I live in the WV panhandle and am suffering voter malaise. Most of the local elections involve democrat against democrat. We’re dominated by unions around here... I’ll definitely vote in the presidential election for whatever Republican (even Romney) who is running, but I’m not sure I’m going to go stand in line to vote in this primary. Initially I liked Cain, then Gingrich.


21 posted on 05/08/2012 7:17:19 AM PDT by Sweet Hour of Prayer
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To: WOSG

Romney lost to the guy who lost to Obama, so I have no idea why anyone would be confident that he can beat Obama. And the election for President is 50 separate elections, not a Rasmussen national tracking vote, so being up by 5 in May is less than meaningless. You’d think after Florida people would understand that.


22 posted on 05/08/2012 7:20:01 AM PDT by mvpel (Michael Pelletier)
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To: knarf
Santorum was already gone when Pa had it’s primary and Santorum pulled a pretty good number.

I wonder how much of that vote was cast before Santorum announced his withdrawal.

23 posted on 05/08/2012 7:20:29 AM PDT by rogue yam
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To: Sweet Hour of Prayer

You won’t have to stand in line, since nobody will be at the polling place, and so your vote will count that much more.


24 posted on 05/08/2012 7:20:52 AM PDT by mvpel (Michael Pelletier)
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To: Andrei Bulba

“Vote Romney to defeat Obama.”

Vote Romney to give Obama a second term using a different face! (There......fixed it.)


25 posted on 05/08/2012 7:21:25 AM PDT by Forty-Niner (The barely bare, berry bear formerly known as..........Ursus Arctos Horribilis.)
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To: Andrei Bulba

“Vote Romney to defeat Obama.”

Vote Romney to give Obama a second term using a different face! (There......fixed it.)


26 posted on 05/08/2012 7:22:00 AM PDT by Forty-Niner (The barely bare, berry bear formerly known as..........Ursus Arctos Horribilis.)
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To: Andrei Bulba

“Vote Romney to defeat Obama.”

Vote Romney to give Obama a second term using a different face! (There......fixed it.)


27 posted on 05/08/2012 7:22:32 AM PDT by Forty-Niner (The barely bare, berry bear formerly known as..........Ursus Arctos Horribilis.)
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To: rogue yam

I just voted this morning in our primary. I voted for Newt. Deny the liberal any more votes.


28 posted on 05/08/2012 7:24:18 AM PDT by WVNan ("Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy." - Winston)
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To: xzins
I am voting in the NC primary today for pro marriage, McCory, Pantano, not Romney, don't know much about the Lt Gov or the rest of the ballot if anyone can help let me know.
29 posted on 05/08/2012 7:24:48 AM PDT by boomop1
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To: Sirius Lee
Romney does not have the requisite number of delegates to be the GOP candidate.

Lots of folks around here were saying that a couple of weeks ago right before Romney went 5 for 5 including NY and PA.

30 posted on 05/08/2012 7:24:53 AM PDT by rogue yam
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To: caver
Here in Indiana, Gingrich and Santorum are still on the ballot.

Same here in West Virginia. I voted for Santorum to make sure that Mitt knows that there are some conservatives out here that aren't happy with him.

I would not vote for Ron Paul because of his screwed up notion about wanting to fight the terrorist over here instead of over there. His foreign affairs ideas are out to lunch. Anyone who would vote for Ron Paul would likely vote for the Libertarian candidate in November which would hand the election over to Obama.

I hate to have to do this again (like with McCain), but I'll get a pair of vice grips and hold my nose tightly and vote for Romney in November. Hopefully we can get Sarah or Herman to run against him in the 2016 primary.

31 posted on 05/08/2012 7:25:02 AM PDT by Retired COB (Still mad about Campaign Finance Reform)
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To: rogue yam

Well good luck with your guy. I’m voting for Goode.


32 posted on 05/08/2012 7:26:05 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (When we cease to be good we'll cease to be great. Be for Goode.)
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To: xzins

LOL so now you all are paulbots? Sad.


33 posted on 05/08/2012 7:27:00 AM PDT by MARKUSPRIME
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To: xzins

So how does it help America for GOP primary voters to show Romney’s weakness today?

How is your strategy supposed to play out?


34 posted on 05/08/2012 7:28:35 AM PDT by rogue yam
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To: fieldmarshaldj
NO to Willard and NO to Zero.

In Nov. those will be the only two realistic choices.

If you and your liberal friend go to the poll and vote, each candidate advances by one and parity is maintained. If you vote third party or stay home in protest, then Zero advances by one and your vote was wasted.

Fight for the conservative in your local elections and in the primary. But, in the general election the winner will either be the (R) or the (D).

35 posted on 05/08/2012 7:41:50 AM PDT by SunTzuWu
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To: MARKUSPRIME

ABOR!


36 posted on 05/08/2012 7:46:23 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: rogue yam

With 600+ delegates remaining, the strategy is to defeat Romney by hook or by crook.

Injure his credibility to throw it to the convention.

Injure his numbers to throw it to the convention.

Do whatever possible to dump the guy!

He’s a radical liberal, pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, anti-gun, pro-big government, pro-obamacare, 3rd way, social corporatist.


37 posted on 05/08/2012 7:49:40 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: boomop1

I voted early in NC. It was after Newt said he was suspending his campaign. I still voted for him anyway. The big draw is the marriage amendment. Heavy turnout here at my school it looks like. Parking lot is full. This is a pretty conservative district so am hoping all those folks come back in November and vote to swing NC back to a red state. Hippieland (Asheville) is no longer in our district so that should help.


38 posted on 05/08/2012 7:49:51 AM PDT by NCMom57
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To: xzins

NOT ROMNEY. EVER.

To choose a backstabber, traitor, statist
is like G.W. having made Benedict Arnold POTUS.

NO WAY.


39 posted on 05/08/2012 7:50:08 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Pollster1

Got back from voting here in NC just a few minutes ago.

NO big lines.

Since everyone in the Prez Primary dropped out except Mitt and Ron - I voted for RP just so Mitt can’t be as smug about winning the GOP nomination.


40 posted on 05/08/2012 7:51:58 AM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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To: SunTzuWu
your vote was wasted.

Not if your INTENTION was to establish or strengthen a 3rd conservative party.

Then your vote would do EXACTLY as intended.

ABOR

41 posted on 05/08/2012 7:53:44 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: NCMom57

Great news we will get out in a bit I am in a small rural area in Pender, I know the morons in New Hanover will vote against.


42 posted on 05/08/2012 8:01:07 AM PDT by boomop1
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To: mvpel
Romney lost to the guy who lost to Obama, so I have no idea why anyone would be confident that he can beat Obama.

Reagan lost to the guy that lost to Carter, so I have no idea why anyone would be confident that he can beat Carter.

43 posted on 05/08/2012 8:17:32 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Diogenesis
ABwhORes
44 posted on 05/08/2012 8:17:48 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: xzins
Then your vote would do EXACTLY as intended.

I can intend to write in Donald Duck because I believe there is a nationwide movement to elect a Disney character. Doesn't mean it isn't a stupid idea. 3rd party's don't work in our winner take all system. With no opportunity for coalition government, 3rd party's will always fail. Why do you think Ron Paul came back to the Republican party? He knew that without the GOP label his beliefs could never be advanced.

45 posted on 05/08/2012 8:25:55 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: xzins
ABOR

Romney will lose.

The Convention needs support for dumping liberal Mitt.

VOTE Paul!

Photobucket

46 posted on 05/08/2012 8:38:15 AM PDT by GraceG
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To: mvpel

Same silly statement could be said about the 1980 GOP nominee who lost to Ford in 1976...and Ford lost to Carter.


47 posted on 05/08/2012 8:42:02 AM PDT by peyton randolph (Mitt has more views on an issue than he has pairs of magic underpants)
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To: Pollster1

Gingrich is still on the ballot in WV, so I voted for him.

One interesting thing I noticed about the WV presidential primary ballot is that you vote for a slate of individual delegates in addition to your candidate. One section of the ballot said ‘vote for no more than nineteen’. But it gets even more complicated... Gingrich (and many of the other candidates also) had about 25 delegates on his slate. So which 19 should I vote for? I opted to pick the first 19 in ballot order, hoping other Gingrich voters would follow a similar pattern.

But it is conceivably possible that a candidate wins the presidential preference vote AND a candidate’s slate of delegates get the most total votes, but another candidate’s delegates get elected to attend the convention because the votes have been spread out in an unfavorable pattern.

There are way too many complexities in the presidential voting process that are prone to manipulation by insiders. The WV delegate slates are a relatively minor issue, but incorrect Iowa results and the Virginia ballot access debacle had a real impact on the election by allowing insiders to give Romney momentum at times when he was vulnerable.

Having lived in Virginia for 13 years, I fully believe that the ballot exclusion of Gingrich and others was intential manipulation of the electoral process by party officials, and not just bad luck. We need to start now to end the political careers of the state officials in Iowa, Virginia and other states that manipulated the process in favor of Romney.


48 posted on 05/08/2012 8:43:48 AM PDT by CaptainMorgantown
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To: GraceG; P-Marlowe; Diogenesis; SoConPubbie; wagglebee; cripplecreek
AB(w)hOR(es)
49 posted on 05/08/2012 9:02:16 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: Longbow1969

Donald Duck is a fictional character.

The Libertarian and Constitution Party are recognized alternative parties in the US.

There is absolutely not one time that the US Constitution uses the word “party” whether in the body, the bill of rights, or the other amendments.

There is no place at all that the US Constitution says “The US is a 2 Party System”.

Now THAT is fictional.


50 posted on 05/08/2012 9:06:29 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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