Skip to comments.Is Romney Losing the Enthusiasm Race? (Tea Party Not Excited about Mitt)
Posted on 05/08/2012 9:25:34 AM PDT by xzins
The first USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll since the GOP settled on moderate former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as its presumptive Presidential nominee shows an interesting dynamic for Romney and the GOP.
After the Republican Party nominated one of the most moderate candidates in the field, enthusiasm for Romney is down among self-identified GOP moderates and Romneys likely victory or defeat now hinges on swing states where Tea Party backed candidates made strong showings in the 2010 Tea Party wave election.
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin are the swing states Romney needs to win to be elected. Key states, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida that contributed to Obamas 365 to 173 electoral vote blow-out of the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008 are in play at this time barely.
Evidence of Romney's problem in Tea Party influenced states is that while Tea Party and conservative-backed office holders are solidifying their popularity, he does not seem to be benefiting from their popularity.
In the state of Michigan, one of Romneys home states where he narrowly won the Republican primary. Romneys post-primary approval fell and he trails Obama by 6 points or more Democratic polling firm PPP has Obama leading Romney by 16 in Michigan.
In contrast, Obamas job approval rating has gone up from 42 percent in September to 50 percent today, and his disapproval rating has dropped from 50 percent to 45 percent.
Michigan's Tea Party backed Governor Rick Snyder's approval rating of 38 percent in September has now hit 50 percent in the state. The Governor's disapproval rating is now down to 36 percent, compared to 46 percent in September.
Tea Party backed Florida Governor Rick Scott, whose shakeup Tallahassee agenda cost him some popularity as he made tough calls on the budget, has gone up 10 points recently and is now at 43 percent, statistically the same as Obamas 43 percent. Romneys multi-million dollar carpet bombing of Newt Gingrich in Florida gained him exactly 1 point over Obama to place him at 43 percent.
In Pennsylvania, after Rick Santorum dropped out, Romney didnt run his usual barrage of negative ads. According to the Quinnipiac poll, Romney actually lost five points while running virtually unopposed in the Pennsylvania primary, and now trails Obama 47 percent to 39 percent.
Since March, Obama has gained two points while Romney lost three. Despite campaigning in the state, Romney still has a negative approval rating, with only 35 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Obamas approval rating in Pennsylvania is 51 percent approve to 43 disapprove.
The states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, were three of the top states where the Tea Party wave swept new constitutional conservative members into Congress. In Florida, four of the seven new Republicans were elected with significant Tea Party support, in Ohio the Tea Party backed candidates contributed five freshmen to the House Republican ranks, and in Pennsylvania four out of the five new Republicans in the delegation were elected with strong Tea Party support.
As Gallup noted, this enthusiasm gap is hurting Romney, Obama's swing-state prospects also look a bit brighter than Romney's on the basis of voter enthusiasm. More than half of Obama's supporters, 55 percent, are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this year's presidential election, up from 49 percent saying this in March. By contrast, 46 percent of Romney's supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic, unchanged from 47 percent in March. Today's figures reflect a reversal from January, when 55 percent of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 50 percent of Obama voters.
In most of the so-called swing states, the recent progress made by the GOP has been powered by Tea Party enthusiasm and Tea Party backed candidates. Unfortunately for Romney, while liberal and moderate support for him has predictably waned, the Tea Party enthusiasm that has been winning elections for the GOP in those key swing states has yet to rub-off on him.
I’ll vote for Romney in the fall, but I just registered my vote for Newt in the NC primary. Felt good.
BINGO! Lock the thread, we have a winner. Personally I'm planning to ACTUALLY PUT A CLOTHESPIN ON MY NOSE in the voting booth. Yes really.
Lack of support for Romney could blow up at the convention.
If all of our “abo’s” who claim they wouldn’t touch romney with a 10 foot pole would think just a bit, they’d realize not tipping their hand is a good thing.
Since they didn’t like him, there was no point in falling in line til the last second. Then they could have gotten considerable concessions from him.
I’ll never vote for him, but I would vote for a different republican conservative.
Meh, I’m excited about being rid of 0bama and that nest of vipers he surrounds himself with.
The GOP is gonna get an ass-whupin’ in November at the top of the ticket and they have nobody to blame but their own little clique.
I have no sympathy for them.
There is NO guarantee of mitt ousting barry, in fact, what actually what do you think his chances are? Not your wishful thinking but reality?
With Newt there was a 99.9% chance of barry being ousted ALONG with the undoing of obama’s damage from day one and on the Constitution track ALL the way.
This article explained back in December how Romney’s popularity always goes down as people get to know him better. We posted this here and attempted to explain to people how this was likely to happen again. FR seems to be batting 1,000 when it comes to figuring out who and what Romney was and is far in advance of everybody else. We’re not a “fringe” right-wing site, we’re the vastly well-informed canary in the coal mine for the conservative movement.
YOU people are going to cheer yourselves into 8 years of Romney, and then we’ll have to spend 8 years whining, complaining, and stocking up on ammo.
I supported Newt. Unfortunately so far the voters did not agree with my choice..
Last time I looked Newt suspended his campagn and has said he will support Romney ..I will vote for Newt in the primary..and for the last man standing that can possibly oust Zero in November.
I want Obama out and will support the nominee...
I don’t believe anyone has a lock in this Presidential election..no guarantees that I see.
Then he’s a severe CINO...
Actually he’s a “Democrat In All BUT Name”.
How could anyone be excited about Mittens? I’m excited about removing Obama from the White House, but my enthusiasm ends there.
The VP would only be window-dressing and totally ignored after he or she served the purpose of getting Mitt elected. Mitt wouldn't get my vote if he named me as his VP choice.
Depends how the economy is doing. Romney and the GOP seem to want to redefine the party as the party that “knows how to fix the economy.” So there’s no point in electing the GOP if the economy happens to be doing good under a Democrat. It’s going to be a big waste of money on a campaign since if the economy’s doing bad, voters will switch votes to the other party anyway. Which is why they should be spending the campaign talking about all the actual planks of conservatism, and not this whole “fixing the economy” message which sounds a lot like “our socialism is better than their socialism.” Or do they want a party that can only win when the economy happens to be doing bad and never any other time?
Face it, he’s not an excitiing guy. Even if he was a hard core conservative he wouldn’t be exciting.
Our source of excitement will have to be getting rid of Obama.
I coined a term for them: DIABLO — Democrat In All But Label Only.
When it comes down to it, I will probably hold my nose (and my gag reflex) and vote for Romney over Obama. I can at least hope that Romney isn’t a hard core socialist intent upon the destruction of America. I know that Obama is.
The 2012 election is going to be a repeat of the 1996 election. After Clinton revulsion caused the nationwide Republican landslide in 1994, no one thought that Clinton could get elected dog catcher two years later. Then the Republicans nominated Bob Dole.
Bob Dole was a war hero. I respected Bob Dole and had no problem voting for him over Clinton, but he was a weak presidential candidate that got nominated mostly because it was his turn.
Obama is going to get re-elected. Hopefully the Republicans will take back the Senate. Maybe there will be enough conservative Republicans in the Senate who will man up and filibuster Obama’s far left wing judicial nominees. I’m not holding my breath.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.