Posted on 05/08/2012 9:25:34 AM PDT by xzins
The first USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll since the GOP settled on moderate former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as its presumptive Presidential nominee shows an interesting dynamic for Romney and the GOP.
After the Republican Party nominated one of the most moderate candidates in the field, enthusiasm for Romney is down among self-identified GOP moderates and Romney’s likely victory or defeat now hinges on “swing states” where Tea Party backed candidates made strong showings in the 2010 Tea Party wave election.
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin are the swing states Romney needs to win to be elected. Key states, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida that contributed to Obama’s 365 to 173 electoral vote blow-out of the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008 are in play at this time – barely.
Evidence of Romney's problem in Tea Party influenced states is that while Tea Party and conservative-backed office holders are solidifying their popularity, he does not seem to be benefiting from their popularity.
In the state of Michigan, one of Romney’s “home” states where he narrowly won the Republican primary. Romney’s post-primary approval fell and he trails Obama by 6 points or more – Democratic polling firm PPP has Obama leading Romney by 16 in Michigan.
In contrast, Obama’s job approval rating has gone up from 42 percent in September to 50 percent today, and his disapproval rating has dropped from 50 percent to 45 percent.
Michigan's Tea Party backed Governor Rick Snyder's approval rating of 38 percent in September has now hit 50 percent in the state. The Governor's disapproval rating is now down to 36 percent, compared to 46 percent in September.
Tea Party backed Florida Governor Rick Scott, whose “shakeup Tallahassee” agenda cost him some popularity as he made tough calls on the budget, has gone up 10 points recently and is now at 43 percent, statistically the same as Obama’s 43 percent. Romney’s multi-million dollar carpet bombing of Newt Gingrich in Florida gained him exactly 1 point over Obama to place him at 43 percent.
In Pennsylvania, after Rick Santorum dropped out, Romney didn’t run his usual barrage of negative ads. According to the Quinnipiac poll, Romney actually lost five points while running virtually unopposed in the Pennsylvania primary, and now trails Obama 47 percent to 39 percent.
Since March, Obama has gained two points while Romney lost three. Despite campaigning in the state, Romney still has a negative approval rating, with only 35 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is 51 percent approve to 43 disapprove.
The states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, were three of the top states where the Tea Party wave swept new constitutional conservative members into Congress. In Florida, four of the seven new Republicans were elected with significant Tea Party support, in Ohio the Tea Party backed candidates contributed five freshmen to the House Republican ranks, and in Pennsylvania four out of the five new Republicans in the delegation were elected with strong Tea Party support.
As Gallup noted, this enthusiasm gap is hurting Romney, “Obama's swing-state prospects also look a bit brighter than Romney's on the basis of voter enthusiasm. More than half of Obama's supporters, 55 percent, are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this year's presidential election, up from 49 percent saying this in March. By contrast, 46 percent of Romney's supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic, unchanged from 47 percent in March. Today's figures reflect a reversal from January, when 55 percent of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 50 percent of Obama voters.”
In most of the so-called “swing” states, the recent progress made by the GOP has been powered by Tea Party enthusiasm and Tea Party backed candidates. Unfortunately for Romney, while liberal and moderate support for him has predictably waned, the Tea Party enthusiasm that has been winning elections for the GOP in those key “swing states” has yet to rub-off on him.
well, we’d better get excited dang quick.
We need to go into this election with great enthusiasm... every day Obama proves more and more that he is a serious danger to this country.
What is the point in continuing to bemoan Romney?
Let’s look at him in a positive way.
He has a name, also.
He’s not ABO any more. He’s my candidate name of Mitt Romney.
Newt is still going to Aug/Fl, but not campaigning, so his support of Romney was from other ‘mitt reports’ and Newt’s support was vague but throughout his debates/campaign was for defeating obama, while mitt’s was on trashing Newt and taking him out.
Nothing is set in stone till Aug and my support for Newt will stay the same until August but always against Mitt. Everyone/because of media bias, has declared mitt a winner since the beginning and now many just continues eating their propaganda - even though they ‘supposedly’ know better. It’s the media that wants to/has given us our candidate or rather they think they have.
The only way he could lose my vote is if he DID name you as vice president. :)
There are also concerns about the huge national debt and annual deficits of over $1 trillion a year since Obama took office. He has amassed more debt in four years than Bush did in 8 years. Our entitlement programs are unsustainable. They will bankrupt us. Property values have declined precipitously with millions of housing foreclosures. The unemployment rate for the young is the highest in over 60 years. Our credit rating has declined. Government regulation has stifiled business and the use of our own natural energy resources.
I could go on and on about the issues. Romney must have a clear message and one focussed on just a few things. In addition to jobs and the economy, I would go after the debt and deficits and the hugely unpopular Obamacare. You can infuse discussion of these issues with the conservative philosophy of limited government, individual liberty, fiscal responsibity, and national security.
We’re not excited. We won’t get excited.
So, the issue becomes putting conservatives in the house and senate.
That’s another reason I can easily vote for Goode and not worry about the Obama presidency.
With conservatives in the house and senate, the agenda of Obama will be dead on arrival. Romney, on the other hand, will gain a bit of party loyalty, and he’ll get his stupid liberal agenda passed. When the conservatives won’t work with him, he’ll overturn to the rinos & democrats, and he’ll get his agenda passed that way, too.
So, in reality, a radical, liberal, social corporatist like Romney is actually a bigger threat.
Conservatives in Congress is the key.
Romney doesn’t care much about the Tea Party either.
If you vote for Romney, that's about what you will be doing.
Another reason to not vote for this socialist.
The bailouts were completely unnecessary. All that would have been needed was for the government to guarantee post filing financing.
If anyone recalls, the bailouts were sold as a way to avoid Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but they filed anyway.
The governments cash was nothing more than Obama's way of buying a seat at the table to protect his union buds, screw over the bondholders and control the companies for the balance of his presidency.
If you are really a conservative and not one of the Mittens who come here to sing the praises of Romney, I can assure you that you'd like my political views far, far better than Romney's. I'd actually attract conservatives to vote for me and not just because I'm not Obama (which appears to be Mitt's only redeeming qualification). Like Sarah Palin whose political views probably most closely mirror mine, I can say conservative things like I believe them because I really do.
I'm absolutely confident that Romney won't name me as VP, so you won't have any internal conflicts to overcome. ;-)
Me, too, but I won't vote for Romney. [That joke was blatantly stolen from another FReeper who I would attribute if I could remember who it was.]
The race is between a Democrat (Romney) and a Communist (Obama).
Thanks for the ‘update.’
no, the race is between a 3rd way, social corporatist and a communist.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.