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Poll: Obama 49 - Romney 46, But..
Townhall.com ^ | May 22, 2012 | Guy Benson

Posted on 05/22/2012 12:28:41 PM PDT by Kaslin

Celebrate good times, liberals -- President Obama has again vaulted ahead of Mitt Romney in a national poll:
 

After months of aggressive campaigning on jobs and the economy, President Obama and Mitt Romney, his likely Republican challenger, are locked in a dead heat over who could fix the problem foremost on voters’ minds, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The parity on economic issues foreshadows what probably will continue to be a tough and negative campaign. Overall, voters would be split 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney if the November election were held now. On handling the economy, they are tied at 47 percent.

Despite flare-ups over issues including contraception and same-sex marriage, more than half of all Americans cite the economy as the one concern that will decide their vote in the fall, relegating others — such as health care, taxes and the federal deficit — to single-digit status. More than eight in 10 Americans still rate the national economy negatively, but there are strains of optimism as it continues to recover from the collapse of 2008. A majority of Americans — 54 percent — say they are more hopeful than anxious about the situation over the next few years, while 58 percent are bullish about their financial prospects.


In this new survey, the president's job approval slipped back underwater (47/49), and his economic marks sank even further (42/55).  So how does Obama manage to pull ahead of Romney in the head-to-head match up in light of his eroded standing?  He gets by with a little help from his friend -- the WaPo/ABC News pollster.  Ed Morrissey blows the lid off of this survey's risible partisan sample:
 

Today’s D/R/I is 32/22/38, which means this model would only be predictive for a turnout model where only 22% of voters are Republican.  Just to remind readers, the 2008 turnout split from exit polls showed a 39/32/29 split, and that was considered a nadir for Republican turnout.  In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.


Let's see if I understand this correctly.  WaPo/ABC News' sample handed Democrats a ten point edge (three points higher than 2008 -- a banner year for Democrats), and projected that Republicans would comprise less than a quarter of the electorate in November...and Romney is still within the margin of error?  This outcome has to be disconcerting for the Obama campaign, even as they put on a happy face over the top-line results.  It also may be time for the Washington Post and ABC News to start censoring their polling methodology again, because they're embarrassing themselves.  As I've written previously, the purpose of polling should be to accurately gauge public opinion; it should not be to manipulate the numbers to manufacture "good" news for your preferred candidate.  If the latter goal is the new standard, I'd be happy to roll out another IGB poll* showing Mitt Romney leading Obama by, let's say, 19 points among registered voters.  Useless, bias-massaging polls are fun, aren't they?  In any case, the Obama campaign's grand scheme to undermine Romney's advantage on the economy is to paint him as a "vampire capitalist" who destroyed businesses for profit.  (A top Democrat is now classily using rape imagery to demagogue Bain).  This idiotic attack strategy is been rebuffed by an expanding roster of Obama allies, the latest of whom is former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell:
 

Rendell joined the chorus of criticism of Obama’s attacks on finance, whose leaders have written checks to many members of both parties. “I think they’re very disappointing,” Rendell said of the ads attacking Bain. “I think Bain is fair game, because Romney has made it fair game. But I think how you examine it, the tone, what you say, is important as well.” As for Booker, “I admire him,” Rendell said. “People in politics should tell the truth. He could have qualified it better, he could have framed it better, but if you’re in this business, none of us like negative ads.”


Maybe some Democrats are wary of these economically-illiterate and hypocritical criticisms because they've seen the fresh numbers from Rasmussen:
 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters believe that Romney’s track record in business is primarily a reason to vote for him. Thirty-three percent (33%) see his business career as chiefly a reason to vote against him ... Fifty-five percent (55%) voters believe venture capital companies are better at creating jobs than government programs are.  Only 26% see government programs as better job creators. Nineteen percent (19%) are not sure. That’s essentially unchanged from January.


Obama has even lost his most devoted center-right sycophant on this issue. If you're still not convinced of O's epic Bain bust, Jennifer Rubin convincingly enumerates the persuasive evidence.  I'd posit that it might be time for Team O to go back to the drawing board, but what else do they have?  This is their gameplan.  Their entire re-election strategy is predicated on fear-mongering about Republican solutions, demonizing Mitt Romney's private sector experience, and pretending that Obama's record isn't a fetid ash heap of broken promises, economic hardship, suffocating debt, and demonstrable failure.  That last bit presents impossibly tough sledding, so more unresponsive, mindless campaign babble it is!  After all, this campaign "is going to be about" Bain Captial, come hell or high water -- so sayeth The One.  Oh goodie.


*IGB is a polling firm that exists exclusively in this author's mind.  Methodology inquiries will be ignored.  Thank you.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; baincapital; barackobama; dinosaurmedia; edrendell; jenniferrubin; lies; mittromney; msm; rasmussen; spin; washingtonpost
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1 posted on 05/22/2012 12:28:45 PM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

WaPo/abc “poll”. This means Romney is up by at least 10 points.


2 posted on 05/22/2012 12:30:59 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dumb, dependent and Democrat is no way to go through life. - Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas)
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To: Kaslin

3 posted on 05/22/2012 12:33:08 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: FlingWingFlyer

: )


4 posted on 05/22/2012 12:37:28 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: Kaslin
Pathetic results for Obama despite the laughing oversampling of donkeys. It is very clear that Romney is winning the independents in almost every poll and he who wins the independents is going to win the elections... It is that simple...
5 posted on 05/22/2012 12:38:19 PM PDT by jveritas (God bless our brave troops)
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To: Kaslin
Just goes to show that every poll is worthless unless you know the internal composition of it and whether or not likely voters or just registered voters were used.

The 32/22/38 Dem/GOP/Independent split is a joke. Not only does it oversample the Dems but add them all up and you still have 8% unaccounted for.

6 posted on 05/22/2012 12:39:01 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Kaslin.
Let's see if I understand this correctly. WaPo/ABC News' sample handed Democrats a ten point edge (three points higher than 2008 -- a banner year for Democrats), and projected that Republicans would comprise less than a quarter of the electorate in November...and Romney is still within the margin of error?

7 posted on 05/22/2012 12:39:09 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (FReepathon 2Q time -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Kaslin

After all the lies they’ve been caught in, WaPo and ABC have no sense of shame whatever.


8 posted on 05/22/2012 12:42:11 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: Kaslin
Today’s D/R/I is 32/22/38, which means this model would only be predictive for a turnout model where only 22% of voters are Republican. Just to remind readers, the 2008 turnout split from exit polls showed a 39/32/29 split, and that was considered a nadir for Republican turnout. In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.

This isn't a poll. It's an obammy campaign ad!

9 posted on 05/22/2012 12:42:54 PM PDT by pgkdan (ANYBODY BUT OBAMA!)
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To: Kaslin

in a poll of black lesbian communists maybe...


10 posted on 05/22/2012 12:43:10 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: jveritas
and he who wins the independents is going to win the elections.

Heaven help us. These are the same people who bring the drive thru to a screeching halt for fifteen minutes because they can't decide what to order off of the Value Menu.

11 posted on 05/22/2012 12:43:32 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Kaslin

Problem downloading site but good points presented.


12 posted on 05/22/2012 12:44:05 PM PDT by ZULU (Non Nobis Domine Non Nobis Sed Nomini Tuo Da Gloriam.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
Unfortunately the history of elections show that they are the ones who decide the winner... Not all independents are “mooshy middle” by the way... You can find a lot of conservatives who consider themselves independents and you can find them right here on this site.
13 posted on 05/22/2012 12:47:29 PM PDT by jveritas (God bless our brave troops)
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To: Kaslin
Today’s D/R/I is 32/22/38, which means this model would only be predictive for a turnout model where only 22% of voters are Republican

It's time for the Democrat pollsters to go all out.

Just do a D/R/I of 72/-18/38.

You know, 72% of the voters would be Democrat, NEGATIVE 18% would be Republicans, and 38% would be independents.

The way you count those votes is, when a negative-percenter in the Republican column indicates a preference for Romney, you REMOVE a vote count.

14 posted on 05/22/2012 12:49:11 PM PDT by Lazamataz (The so-called 'mainstream' media has gone from "biased" straight to "utterly surreal".)
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To: Kaslin

Heh.. They may be right...

I know Im NOT going to go out and vote for the GOP’s socialist candidate.

LOL, whos supposed to keep him in “check” again? Boner?

Best bet for the GOP is to talk enough of the delegates into skipping the first round or voting at the convention, cause I don’t think the folks who say they wont vote for a socialist even if he has a R behind his name are bluffing. I know Im not...


15 posted on 05/22/2012 12:49:46 PM PDT by myself6
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To: jveritas

They should NOT be called “independents”...they should be called UNDECIDEDS....


16 posted on 05/22/2012 12:51:08 PM PDT by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
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To: Kaslin

Any conservative COULD win, but
Romney was chosen by the DNC and Soros and
the GOPe because he is a loser, nearly
identical to Obama.


17 posted on 05/22/2012 12:51:26 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
"These are the same people who bring the drive thru to a screeching halt for fifteen minutes because they can't decide what to order off of the Value Menu."

Yeah, so? What's your point? You know there are a lot of things on that menu and sometimes trying to figure out if A Quarter Pounder is a better buy with Super Sized fries and no coke or with reg fries and a lg coke takes some time....

18 posted on 05/22/2012 12:53:22 PM PDT by galloway15
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To: Kaslin

Romney wins 55/45 according to the math.

Only 27% of the independents went for Obama in this poll.

Assume the D/R/I this time is 37/33.5/29.5 which is the average of 2008 / 2010.

Obama 45%, Romney 55%

They know this. They have better quants working than I.


19 posted on 05/22/2012 12:57:44 PM PDT by cicero2k
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To: Kaslin
propaganda to support the dem / obozo ballet fraud come Nov.
20 posted on 05/22/2012 12:58:15 PM PDT by drypowder
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To: galloway15

And then there’s the whole chicken nugget dilemma. Spicy, or regular? Ranch, or Sweet & Sour?


21 posted on 05/22/2012 12:59:50 PM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Running in circles and screaming is not a strategy.)
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To: jveritas

“Not all independents are “mooshy middle” by the way... You can find a lot of conservatives who consider themselves independents”

That is the truth. I would like to see a ideological poll of independents to see what the make up is.


22 posted on 05/22/2012 1:02:34 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: myself6

Really?

Who would you vote for between Senator candidates (If you were from Massachusetts) Elizabeth Warren or Scott Brown? Compared to nearly all republicans, Scott Brown is liberal. However, I would rather have him than the Cherokee wanna-be.

If 0bama is re-elected it will be because of people like you.

Our nation is held hostage by a socialist and may not survive if O is elected. Why not “stop the bleeding” now and get a better candidate the next time. Or, do you want to prove your point so much that you’re willing to see our nation quickly go into socialist policies???


23 posted on 05/22/2012 1:03:45 PM PDT by Justice4awe
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To: Kaslin

Starting in January, the poll has consisted of Republicans at 25%, 23%, 27%, 23%, and now 22%.

If we extapolate these results, there will 19% Republicans by November.


24 posted on 05/22/2012 1:05:19 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot.)
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To: myself6
Best bet for the GOP is to talk enough of the delegates into skipping the first round or voting at the convention, cause I don’t think the folks who say they wont vote for a socialist even if he has a R behind his name are bluffing.

Very astute observation on your part myself6.

25 posted on 05/22/2012 1:06:31 PM PDT by houeto (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
These are the same people who bring the drive thru to a screeching halt for fifteen minutes because they can't decide what to order off of the Value Menu.

LOL! Ain't that the truth?

I park and go in specifically to avoid these nimrods and they'll do the same damn thing at the counter. But at least I'm not idling off $3.75 per gallon gas while waiting for them to make up their minds.

26 posted on 05/22/2012 1:08:12 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Kaslin

The terrifying part is that 45% either don’t know or believe that government is best at creating jobs. This election is a close thing and unless we get our children’s minds back from the government school system our America isn’t long for this world.


27 posted on 05/22/2012 1:11:27 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Kaslin

That 47% of any sample could say that Obama could handle the economy better than anyone else speaks to the insanity of the group.


28 posted on 05/22/2012 1:21:55 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Ineptocracy; the Obama way.)
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To: Kaslin

That 47% of any sample could say that Obama could handle the economy better than anyone else speaks to the insanity of the group.


29 posted on 05/22/2012 1:22:19 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Ineptocracy; the Obama way.)
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To: Kaslin

That 47% of any sample could say that Obama could handle the economy better than anyone else speaks to the insanity of the group.


30 posted on 05/22/2012 1:22:28 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Ineptocracy; the Obama way.)
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To: myself6

the brown shirts thank you for your cooperation.....


31 posted on 05/22/2012 1:23:26 PM PDT by Hogblog
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To: Kaslin

People are simply are lying to the poll takers simply to not reveal their true feelings about Obama, which is negivtive at best.


32 posted on 05/22/2012 1:23:58 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: Kaslin

The terrifying part is that 45% either don’t know or believe that government is best at creating jobs. This election is a close thing and unless we get our children’s minds back from the government school system our America isn’t long for this world.


33 posted on 05/22/2012 1:29:00 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Mike Darancette
That 47% of any sample could say that Obama could handle the economy better than anyone else speaks to the insanity of the group.
TV and government schooling have done their work lobotomizing America.
34 posted on 05/22/2012 2:00:38 PM PDT by samtheman
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To: cicero2k

It may be because people are simply tired of seeing Obama everywhere in their face with his teleprompter. Too much Obama means he definitely will never win.


35 posted on 05/22/2012 2:06:13 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: SandyInSeattle

I know, I know, I tell ya it’s enough to drive a guy to drink. And the salads, what about all the different salads with all those choices for dressing? Or for crissakes NO DRESSING at all!!!

Tryin’ to decide if I want fresh garlic or onion on my sausage pie is bad enough but THIS...

Maybe I’ll jut go back on a Ritz cracker diet. Regular size or mini...?


36 posted on 05/22/2012 2:18:02 PM PDT by galloway15
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To: Justice4awe
"Our nation is held hostage by a socialist and may not survive if O is elected. Why not “stop the bleeding” now and get a better candidate the next time. Or, do you want to prove your point so much that you’re willing to see our nation quickly go into socialist policies???"

Put perfectly, but you better be careful with this kind of talk. Folks have been booted from here for saying similar things. Hell I'm probably in danger for even areeing with you.

37 posted on 05/22/2012 2:23:04 PM PDT by galloway15
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To: jveritas

It is that thought pattern that the GOP-e are following as a game plan. I believe it to be incorrect. I am of the opinion that the side that turns out their BASE is the side that wins elections. There simply is not enough motivated middle anymore.

I also believe that the GOP-e will lose in the exchange of the base who will not vote for Romney, because they will not gain enough independants to compensate for the loss.


38 posted on 05/22/2012 2:34:54 PM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: Justice4awe
“Who would you vote for between Senator candidates (If you were from Massachusetts) Elizabeth Warren or Scott Brown? Compared to nearly all republicans, Scott Brown is liberal. However, I would rather have him than the Cherokee wanna-be.”

BINGO! That's why as much as I really DO NOT like Brown (he's voted for some really bad legislation), I WILL vote for him in November: the alternative, Granny Tee-Pee, is truly horrific.

It's the same dilemma we have with Romney vs. Obama. Romney sucks, but we CANNOT survive four more years of the Kenyan.

39 posted on 05/22/2012 2:36:27 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (We may die, but DISCO LIVES FOREVER!!!)
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To: Kaslin

Correct me please if I am mistaken, but I believe the pollsters, as a rule, recalculate the raw returns according to party affiliation. The numbers they report are not the raw numbers but the “recalculated according to sampling” numbers.

If there is an actual polling expert out there, please verify or clarify, thank you.


40 posted on 05/22/2012 2:56:08 PM PDT by cookcounty ("We're all born idiots, and we only get over that condition as we get less young." -J Goldberg)
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To: Justice4awe

“Why not “stop the bleeding” now and get a better candidate the next time.”

lol... THAT is the same ol F’ing lullaby that people like YOU have been singing for decades. I just doesnt work any more...

If ZERO gets elected.. it will be because the “progressives” in the GOP nominated a GD socialist... Get that through your thick ass skulls... The GOP’s FAULT... The IDIOTS that go along with whatever the GOP-e throw at them fault.. and ultimatly YOUR fault as well.

The ONLY thing worse than Zero getting reelected is the republican party nominating a socialist and succeeding in getting a socialist elected to president. THAT RIGHT THERE IS GAME OVER.

The problem with your Massachusetts example is that ANY conservative as nominee in the PRESIDENTIAL election would win. PERIOD.


41 posted on 05/22/2012 3:04:56 PM PDT by myself6
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To: Hogblog

WTF are you talking about?

The brown shirts your referring to were part of the national socialist German workers party. They ONLY M’er F’er here in this conversation that’s actively supporting a socialist is YOU.


42 posted on 05/22/2012 3:07:59 PM PDT by myself6
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To: GOPsterinMA

Umm... the 50 states are NOT Massachusetts... Thank F’ing GOD!

You dont need to nominate a Friggen SOCIALIST POS to win the presidential election. In fact, you pretty much guaranteeing EPIC failure... lol.. especially if he actually gets elected..

ANY ACTUAL LIMITED GOVERNMENT CONSERVATIVE would beat Zero this year... ANY..


43 posted on 05/22/2012 3:12:32 PM PDT by myself6
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44 posted on 05/22/2012 3:27:41 PM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: myself6
“Umm... the 50 states are NOT Massachusetts... Thank F’ing GOD!”

Yes, Thank God for that!

However, the fact still remains that either Romney or Obama is going to be POTUS. That's not going to change. We're all free to vote for whoever we choose to or not choose to.

And on a state-level, I have more shi*ty choices: Brown or Warren. Again, one or the other is going to win. That's the reality. Is is good? No.

Romney sucks, but Obama will finish us off. It's a pretty clear difference.

45 posted on 05/22/2012 3:45:52 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (We may die, but DISCO LIVES FOREVER!!!)
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To: GOPsterinMA

“Romney sucks, but Obama will finish us off.”

No one is finishing anyone off. If anything, either of them being elected is the final stab at the already fading heart of this long dieing union of states.

Your blind.

One socialist will have the full support of both parties in congress. The other socialist will only have the support of one party in congress... Ill let you figure out whos who...


46 posted on 05/22/2012 4:12:52 PM PDT by myself6
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To: myself6

Actually, my eyesight is pretty good.

Whatever floats your boat.


47 posted on 05/22/2012 4:18:31 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (We may die, but DISCO LIVES FOREVER!!!)
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To: Kaslin
...pretending that Obama's record isn't a fetid ash heap of broken promises, economic hardship, suffocating debt, and demonstrable failure.

Mr. Benson is being too kind here. Instead of 'fetid ash heap', I think it's more like a 'steaming dung pile'.

48 posted on 05/22/2012 5:13:00 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: myself6
The problem with your Massachusetts example is that ANY conservative as nominee in the PRESIDENTIAL election would win. PERIOD.

Well since no one conservative has been able to garner the majority of votes in the primaries, whether they be the one in MA or the national ones, your contention is moot.

We will have a choice between a pure and unrepentant Marxist, and a Republican who is more statist than many of us might like, but would, without question, be better for the economy than the current occupant of the White House. I, for one, will not wake up on the day after the election with regrets. Even though he wasn't my choice in the MA Repub. primary, I will vote for Romney, instead of Obama, come November.

49 posted on 05/22/2012 5:23:00 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Of course


50 posted on 05/22/2012 5:25:05 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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