Posted on 05/28/2012 10:24:14 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
UP FOR GRABS (85):
Colorado (9) — Long a reliable GOP state, but Colorado's conservative profile is changing. Young professionals and Hispanic voters were central to Obama's victory in 2008, but the sluggish economy has hurt his standing. Female voters in Denver's suburbs could play a big role.
Florida (29) — Florida is the prime target for both campaigns. Obama won in 2008, but the housing crisis, high unemployment and gas prices are dogging him. Romney won the primary in January and has picked up the endorsement of GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. Obama's organization has a large advantage.
Iowa (6) — An important Bush-state pick-up for Obama in 2008. Iowa has been a national popular-vote bellwether for 20 years. Obama's attention in the state where his caucus victory launched him in 2008 is countered by Romney's two caucus campaigns. Conservatives are wary of Romney's Mormon faith and social issues profile, but he's got GOP Gov. Terry Branstad on his side.
Nevada (6) — One of three Southwestern states Obama flipped in 2008. Nevada is also the prime example of the economy's struggles. Unemployment was 12.3 percent in February, a point Romney will press. There's a strong labor and Hispanic vote, a plus for Obama. A higher Mormon population helps Romney.
New Hampshire (4) — Romney has a vacation home in New Hampshire, which is next to Massachusetts, where Romney was governor. He won the 2012 primary big, but Obama peeled off this Bush state in 2008 and has worked hard to keep it. Vice President Joe Biden visited Friday. But the GOP is back in power in the Legislature, and freshman Sen. Kelly Ayotte is seen as asset for Romney.
Ohio (18) — This Midwestern state has been a general election bellwether since 1980.
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
Florida, North Carolina and Virginia are gone for the Messiah.
Last time I checked, a “gay marriage” prop will be on the ballot in Colorado. Not a good thing for our first “gay” president. Gonna drive voter turnout against the prop, and the dope.
Lots of state-by-state analysis here.
Ohio is ground zero, just like it was in 2004.
I do think that some states may surprise. Pennsylvania bears close watching. It votes Democrat in Presidential elections, but Obama is very unpopular there and the economy hasn’t recovered.
Of course, Wisconsin’s recall will bear close watching. Since it’s a rematch between the 2010 candidates, the areas with the biggest change in voting habits need the closest attention.
The bright spot in New Mexico is due to the fact that the Dems have been so successful in importing voters from Mexico.
It is amazing how few states are ever in play in Presidential elections —
This article is kind of shallow. It says nothing about specific Obama policies and actions and how they have effected each state. It says very little about the grassroots conservative organizing that has taken place since 2009. This upcoming election is very different from the 2008 election, and the 2012 Obama is very different from the 2008 version, but these differences are not at all captured in the analysis within this article.
Hindsight simplifies close elections. Once the votes are counted four or five states loom large. But leading up to the vote there are ten or twelve others where significant campaigning has taken place.
Dip shit Obama may pull out a win in Florida ? LOL
Gov. Scott and the legislative just culled about 100,000 illegal voters off the rolls...I’m sure almost all the dead voted for Obama
As Hugh Hewitt says they can’t steal the election if it isn’t close ....
Since the Republicans never can win New York and California and the dozen other states on the east and west coasts, why don’t they just eliminate or discount them from their primary tallies. Then they would come up with a candidate most amenable to the voters in those states that they actually have a chance to win.
That would disenfranchise Republican voters in those states.
Upon looking at the geopolitical map, changing demographics, the economy, and the general crappy mood of America, the pallis poll predicts Obama will lose big time, worse than McCain did.
Now that the dead are being culled from the rolls here, the next step has started to cross verify anyone on the rolls in Florida that are still on the rolls in other states. No huff and puff from this governor, just paying attention to business and getting it done. Press conferences just waste time.
On my last visit to see my Mom in Nevada late last year, she had just received a jury duty summons for my Dad. He passed away in 1998. I sent that summons to someone there to help their push to clean things up there as well.
Correction, worse than Carter did and maybe worse than Mondale.
And Romney will not will either of his home states.
I wonder where on the list NM Governor Susana Martinez is for VP.
OTOH, candidates running with a female VP nominee are 0 for 2, so maybe Romney better pick Rubio.
Susana Martinez has ruled out being a candidate and Marco Rubio has distanced himself from the speculation. Most people expect that the Vice Presidential nominee will be U.S. Senator Rob Portman of Ohio.
2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NV o/r IA = 271EV
I am inclined to agree.
Don’t need NewMex. Under any scenario, really.
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