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Swing State Polls Show Close Race
NRO ^ | May 31, 2012 1:06 P.M | Katrina Trinko

Posted on 05/31/2012 10:40:55 AM PDT by bkepley

NBC reports:

Today, we’re unveiling a new round of NBC-Marist surveys in three other battleground states — ones that aren’t polled as often — showing an even closer race. In Iowa, the two men are tied at 44% among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate; 10% are undecided. In Colorado, Obama gets support from 46% of registered voters, while Romney gets 45%. And in Nevada, the president is at 48% and Romney is at 46%. The margin of error in each of these three surveys is plus-minus 3%, so they are all statistical ties in these battleground states.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: swingstates

1 posted on 05/31/2012 10:41:01 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: bkepley

46% of our fellow citizens would sit still in a burning house. Appalling.


2 posted on 05/31/2012 10:45:40 AM PDT by relictele (We are officially OUT of other people's money!)
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To: bkepley

Bad news for Mr. Zero.

MSM polls show dead heat or near dead heats in multiple swing states. They can’t even skew the numbers to favor Obama. They can’t even cover with oversampling Dems.

Romney probably ahead by 5-10 in reality.


3 posted on 05/31/2012 10:45:40 AM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: bkepley

I’m not buying it. Absolutely no one I talk to anywhere will vote for the dictator in chief.

I’m not buying any of these polls; nada!


4 posted on 05/31/2012 10:45:51 AM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: bkepley

The last set of NBC polls had a +15 Dem margin to show Obama leading Ohio by just 6.

How bad is it THIS TIME?


5 posted on 05/31/2012 10:48:50 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: bkepley

That’s why we should only look at polls that are of “likely voters”. If the likely voters are still close then the challenger will nearly always take the lion-share of the undecided votes.


6 posted on 05/31/2012 10:49:09 AM PDT by HOYA97 (twitter @hoya97)
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To: bkepley
The Marist poll is registered voters. Worthless.

Rasmussen's likely voters shows Zero losing.

7 posted on 05/31/2012 10:49:26 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: ExTexasRedhead

Notice that all the polls by NBC were of registered voters. BHO is in real trouble if he can only manage a tie with registered voters. Likely voters probably put Romney up by 4-5 pts.


8 posted on 05/31/2012 10:50:17 AM PDT by manovark
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To: ExTexasRedhead

I’ve heard that “likely voters” is a better predictor than the “registered voters” they use here — and they usually show better numbers for Romney.


9 posted on 05/31/2012 10:51:14 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: jiggyboy
I’ve heard that “likely voters” is a better predictor than the “registered voters” they use here — and they usually show better numbers for Romney.

I thought these poll numbers were unusually good for Romney.

10 posted on 05/31/2012 10:52:39 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: relictele

Oh we have our share of “principled” non-voters right here on FR, trying to shout down anybody would dare to vote for Romney rather than sit out, out of spite, and to show those Republicans a lesson, dag nabbit!


11 posted on 05/31/2012 10:53:46 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: bkepley

As other posters have already noted, whatever you think of these numbers, the situation “on the ground” is probably even better than that.


12 posted on 05/31/2012 10:56:10 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: Col Frank Slade; All

I’m not a big Dick Morris fan, but I agree with him on this point. If the President is at 46% and and there are 8 - 10 percent undecided on Election Day, he loses BIG. On Election day, 80% of the undecideds go for the challenger, over the incumbent, in any election. If after 4 years, they are still “undecided” on Election Day, they will not vote for the incumbent. That is a historical fact.


13 posted on 05/31/2012 10:59:59 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
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To: bkepley

If this keeps up, I am dreading what October surprise the community organizer will pull out.


14 posted on 05/31/2012 11:01:36 AM PDT by entropy12 (Hate is the most insidious emotion, it will rot your gut more than anything else.)
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To: Col Frank Slade

True. They’re oversampling democrats and probably registered rather than likely voters.


15 posted on 05/31/2012 11:03:04 AM PDT by pgkdan (ANYBODY BUT OBAMA!)
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To: Col Frank Slade

True. They’re oversampling democrats and probably registered rather than likely voters.


16 posted on 05/31/2012 11:03:37 AM PDT by pgkdan (ANYBODY BUT OBAMA!)
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To: ExTexasRedhead

I have a friend here in NYC,a liberal woman. She voted for Obama last time. We have had so many debates. The usual rancor against conservatives. Saw her over the holiday weekend. She said to me she would vote for whomever the pubbies nominated. She said Obama has done nothing so far.
This is the typical northeast liberal automatic pull the lever Democrat voter.This ia a vote that is simply assumed.
Obama is going to be in a world of hurt.


17 posted on 05/31/2012 11:04:29 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: bkepley
It appears that the race is breaking for Romney even earlier than I had anticipated.

If Romney shows this much progress in the swing states among registered voters he is almost certainly ahead among likely voters. The momentum is swinging his way and I would expect to see major defections from the Obama camp with the Democrat candidates turning away from him. Expect his fund-raising woes to mount. Expect to see the establishment media somewhat less reliably in Obama's camp.

Today's economic numbers will only accelerate this trend. Even the price of gasoline comes down only because the economy is weakening. I doubt Obama will be able to put any kind of a plausible spin on tomorrow's jobless numbers and that, compounded with the revision downward of the first-quarter GDP, will cause more of the electorate, especially the undecideds, to decide that they must try something new.

When this thing breaks it will be reminiscent of Reagan's break but I think it will come much earlier in the season.


18 posted on 05/31/2012 11:04:34 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: pgkdan

It seems to me that if these are statisticians it would not matter that much what their sampling is as long as the sample is large. The raw data is massaged to reflect the assumptions of the pollster. Of course the assumptions of the pollster matters a lot as Rasmussen found out in 2010.


19 posted on 05/31/2012 11:07:43 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: entropy12

We should look for the opening of killing of Osama movie that Hollywood is now producing


20 posted on 05/31/2012 11:08:05 AM PDT by PaulZe
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To: manovark

“BHO is in real trouble if he can only manage a tie with registered voters.”

Yes, and since this is an NBC affiliated poll, you can be sure they’ve skewed it as far as possible in Obama’s favor, and it still shows Obama in trouble. I’m willing to bet that the Obama campaign internal polls are starting to cause panic among Dem insiders since they’re not for public consumption and have to be as accurate as possible.


21 posted on 05/31/2012 11:11:05 AM PDT by Stevenc131
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To: bkepley

The parasites don’t quite outnumber the producers yet.

But the godless crowd ‘feels’ perfectly justified in cheating to win. And the godless administration will encourage and abet.

So the Marxist revolutionary wins a second term in November.


22 posted on 05/31/2012 11:11:20 AM PDT by LucianOfSamasota (Tanstaafl - its not just for breakfast anymore...)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Agreed. And Obama’s approval numbers among Independent voters are horrible in poll after poll.

Will they suddenly have a change of heart and vote Obama when stepping into the booth ? Nope.


23 posted on 05/31/2012 11:46:38 AM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: bkepley

Visited a neighbor early this morning and saw NBC today show in the background with this poll. No doubt the MSM was loving showing Romney down and the clueless independents watching (if anyone was really listening) were thinking how will Romney ever catch up. I’m sure the spot met the approval of the DNC.


24 posted on 05/31/2012 12:00:36 PM PDT by CedarDave
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To: nathanbedford
When this thing breaks it will be reminiscent of Reagan's break but I think it will come much earlier in the season.

I think so, too. I believe people are reluctant to tell an anonymous pollster they will vote against the first black president. So, I think there is big overstatement of Barry's support.

25 posted on 05/31/2012 12:10:51 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: ExTexasRedhead

“I’m not buying it. Absolutely no one I talk to anywhere will vote for the dictator in chief.”

Understand that 0 will get a race riot or some other conflict started here in the US so he can suspend the Constitution and declare himself President for life.

Watch for the first part of October.


26 posted on 05/31/2012 1:19:19 PM PDT by chooseascreennamepat (The response to 1984 is 1776.)
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