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Late Polls Find Walker Is Still Favored (NY Times analyst admits Walker has 95% chance of winning)
New York Times ^ | 06/03/2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 06/04/2012 4:58:16 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Two polls released over the weekend suggest that Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican, remains the clear favorite to win Tuesday’s recall election.

Although the contest is fairly close, polls of gubernatorial races are ordinarily quite reliable in the late stages of a race. We have not officially released a forecast for the race, but Mr. Walker’s lead of about six points would translate into almost a 95 percent chance of victory if we used the same formula we did to evaluate gubernatorial races in 2010, which derives its estimates from the historical accuracy of gubernatorial polls over the past 15 years.

One of the new polls over the weekend, from Public Policy Polling, which conducts polling on behalf of Democratic clients as well as publishes its own polls independently, showed a somewhat tighter race, with Mr. Walker’s Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, having closed his deficit to three percentage points. However, the firm has showed somewhat more favorable results for Mr. Barrett than other polling firms, and this reflected a relatively minor change from the firm’s previous poll, which had Mr. Walker ahead by five percentage points.

At the same time, the Public Policy Polling survey had Mr. Walker at 50 percent of the vote and had very few undecided voters. The presence of undecided voters tends to correlate with higher unpredictability on Election Day, while the absence of them, as in this case, means that even a small lead is more likely to hold up.

Another poll from We Ask America, which is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association and often shows Republican-leaning results, had a larger lead, 12 points, for Mr. Walker. There had been no change from the firm’s prior poll, which also had Mr. Walker 12 points ahead.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: recall; scottwalker; wisconsin

1 posted on 06/04/2012 4:58:25 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Silver notes:

_______________________-

Democrats have made various claims that Mr. Barrett might overperform his polls – citing, for instance, what they say is a superior turnout operation.

These claims need to be weighed against the long actuarial odds of a candidate who is down by this amount in the consensus of polls coming back to win at the last minute.

Campaigns that are down by about this margin in the polls often say that there is some dynamic that the polls are not capturing. Sometimes they are making reasonable arguments, and sometimes they are just spinning. But either way, these factors are rarely enough to allow the candidate to overcome the deficit. The exceptional cases are often remembered precisely because they are rare events.

It could be that Mr. Barrett does overperform his polls, but not by enough to win. A benchmark for a superior turnout operation is that it might typically be worth an additional two or three points – fewer than the six points by which he now trails Mr. Walker in the average of surveys.


2 posted on 06/04/2012 4:59:16 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind
When he wins, and he is GOING TO WIN I want every single one of those people who signed for the recall to PAY FOR THE RECALL

You people trashed the Capital building, ran up expenses, and now you need to pay up.

3 posted on 06/04/2012 5:03:03 PM PDT by Volunteer (Though I know that the hypnotized never lie, do ya? - The Who)
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To: SeekAndFind

Bump


4 posted on 06/04/2012 5:04:25 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
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To: SeekAndFind

He doesn’t have a 95% chance of winning. That’s the NYT increasing expectations so that if he loses they can call it a “shocking upset” which bodes ill for Romney.


5 posted on 06/04/2012 5:06:36 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: SeekAndFind

Twelve points, baby. Plus or minus 2.


6 posted on 06/04/2012 5:06:55 PM PDT by cicero2k
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To: SeekAndFind

I think there are lots of voters who tell pollsters they will vote for Barrett but in the confines of the voting booth will vote for Walker. I’d be surprised if Walker doesn’t outperform the average of the polls.


7 posted on 06/04/2012 5:08:16 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: SeekAndFind

So, do you think that Obama sent in Holder’s DOJ to monitor the election in Milwaukee tomorrow, to assuage the feelings of abandonment of the union organizers?

Is it all for show, or does Obama really think that Holder can pull this out of the hat with accusations of disenfranchisement of minorities?


8 posted on 06/04/2012 5:08:44 PM PDT by Eva
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To: Eva
So, do you think that Obama sent in Holder’s DOJ to monitor the election in Milwaukee...

Perhaps I missed it, but in the list of cities the DOJ are going to be monitoring, Milwaukee was not one of them.

9 posted on 06/04/2012 5:10:38 PM PDT by Monitor ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false-front for the urge to rule it." - H. L. Mencken)
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To: Eva
So, do you think that Obama sent in Holder’s DOJ to monitor the election in Milwaukee...

Perhaps I missed it, but in the list of cities the DOJ are going to be monitoring, Milwaukee was not one of them.

10 posted on 06/04/2012 5:11:01 PM PDT by Monitor ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false-front for the urge to rule it." - H. L. Mencken)
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To: SeekAndFind

Kick a$$, write down leftist names. Is there another way?


11 posted on 06/04/2012 5:11:58 PM PDT by Libloather (The epitome of civility.)
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To: SeekAndFind

There are re three important factors in this election.

1. Turnout.
2. Turnout.
3. And finally, most importantly, turnout.


12 posted on 06/04/2012 5:13:14 PM PDT by oyez ( Affordable Health-care is neither affordable nor health-care.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Have the padlocks been securely put in place on all the gates of the cemeteries? We need to make sure the dead voters don't swarm into the polling stations in droves.

Don't be to optimistic. The voter fraud will be incredible. It will be a warm-up for the Nov. election.

I also bet that there will be court challenges if Walker wins. Challenges that will last for many months and will neuter any ability for Walker to govern.

13 posted on 06/04/2012 5:13:37 PM PDT by CapnJack
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To: SeekAndFind

He’s up to 94.5% on Intrade. That’s up from 92.1% around noon.


14 posted on 06/04/2012 5:15:57 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: Eva

Holder is there to put the stamp of official credibility on baseless accusations of voter fraud.

These accusations will be used to gin up anger against the republicans and cash and enthousiasm for Obama among his currently disinterested base.

The show trials that Holder will conduct will also be a distraction during the next 5 months from Obama’s dismal economic record.


15 posted on 06/04/2012 5:16:00 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: SeekAndFind

All I ask is who should pay for this frivolous childish tantrum foisted on Wisconsin taxpayers once Walker wins. My Northern Wisconsin parents are 75 years old, rural, and they will help foot the bill for this irrational liberal tantrum. Will Wisconsin voters punish the democrat party this upcoming November? I’m sick and tired of the teacher’s unions, out-of-touch Dane County elitist’s, and Milwaukee County entitlement whore’s not respecting the will of the rest of the state. And for what? You are not the people I remember growing up with in northern Wisconsin.


16 posted on 06/04/2012 5:16:38 PM PDT by yooper (If you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there......)
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To: SeekAndFind
PMSNBC has Barrett winning. ROTF!

They reference Milwaukee county as the reason for A Barrett win.

Charles Manson would win Milwaukee county if he ran as a dimocrat!

17 posted on 06/04/2012 5:17:27 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: SeekAndFind
PMSNBC has Barrett winning. ROTF!

They reference Milwaukee county as the reason for A Barrett win.

Charles Manson would win Milwaukee county if he ran as a dimocrat!

18 posted on 06/04/2012 5:17:42 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: SeekAndFind
It could be that Mr. Barrett does overperform his polls, but not by enough to win. A benchmark for a superior turnout operation is that it might typically be worth an additional two or three points – fewer than the six points by which he now trails Mr. Walker in the average of surveys.

If so, you can bet the cry of "LET THE RECOUNTS BEGIN!" will ring throughout the state - especially in the cities.

19 posted on 06/04/2012 5:18:37 PM PDT by Oatka (This is America. Assimilate or evaporate.)
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To: Eva

If Walker wins, the only benefit Democrats can get out of the dog and pony show they have manufactured is to throw doubt on the outcome and tie it all up in court.

If Walker doesn’t blow out Barrett by at least 10 points, there will be countless accusations of voter intimidation, faulty machines, faulty counting, ballot box stuffing, hanging chads, you name it.

If they can get a sympathetic judge to hold up the results, they can stretch this thing out for months and prevent Walker from riding a headwind into November.


20 posted on 06/04/2012 5:23:36 PM PDT by randita
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To: randita

If Walker wins by one point, he wins. And then the liberals need to pay for this nonsense, every one of them, and every registered democrat, in dollars. The conservative taxpayers of Wisconsin should not have been forced to pay for this transparent horse manure.


21 posted on 06/04/2012 5:28:54 PM PDT by yooper (If you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there......)
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To: oyez
1. Turnout.
2. Turnout.
3. And finally, most importantly, turnout.

Unions are supposed to be good at turnout. However, according to the Wall Street Journal:

Wisconsin membership in the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees—the state's second-largest public-sector union after the National Education Association, which represents teachers—fell to 28,745 in February from 62,818 in March 2011, according to a person who has viewed Afscme's figures. A spokesman for Afscme declined to comment.

Much of that decline came from Afscme Council 24, which represents Wisconsin state workers, whose membership plunged by two-thirds to 7,100 from 22,300 last year.

Walker made withholding union dues from an employee's paychecks up to the employee.

22 posted on 06/04/2012 5:31:52 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: Monitor
From the WA Times article:

WASHINGTON – The Justice Department announced today that it will monitor elections on June 5, 2012, in the following jurisdictions to ensure compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and other federal voting rights statutes: Alameda, Fresno and Riverside Counties, Calif.; Cibola and Sandoval Counties, N.M.; Shannon County, S.D.; and the city of Milwaukee.

23 posted on 06/04/2012 5:43:35 PM PDT by Eva
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To: randita

The force is strong with this one.

24 posted on 06/04/2012 5:47:07 PM PDT by txhurl (AB would vote for Scott Walker.)
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To: yooper

If it’s a close Walker win, I hope Dems squeal like stuck pigs all the way to November. It would not help Obama to have them throwing hissy fits, esp. if they occupy the capitol again with those incessant beating drums.


25 posted on 06/04/2012 6:02:10 PM PDT by randita
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To: cicero2k

BUMP!!


26 posted on 06/04/2012 6:03:33 PM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: Volunteer

I’m not up to speed on the 4 GOP senators up for recall, does anybody have any opinion on that? (we need all 4 to retain control of the WI senate)


27 posted on 06/04/2012 7:10:58 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: cynwoody
Walker made withholding union dues from an employee's paychecks up to the employee.

I know. Isn't that grrr-eat?

28 posted on 06/05/2012 5:55:30 AM PDT by oyez ( Affordable Health-care is neither affordable nor health-care.)
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