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VANITY: With 5 months to go, trends spell trouble for Obama’s re-election hopes
Sunday, June 10, 2012 | rightcoast

Posted on 06/10/2012 4:20:05 PM PDT by rightcoast

With 5 months to, trends spell trouble for Obama’s re-election hopes

June 10, 2012

Like many FReepers, I have been closely watching state polling data for voter trends, good or bad. Coverage of the Wisconsin recall election has been interesting, in that it has been painted as a bad sign for President Obama (the state is now considered a toss-up), although softened by Obama’s purported 5-point advantage in recent polls.

The real story in Wisconsin as it relates to the President is not that he still holds a lead; it is that this lead has plummeted dramatically versus his 2008 election. Obama enjoyed a nearly 14-point lead over John McCain, but the current RCP polling average shows a lead just under 5 points – a 9-point drop!

If you compare the 2008 election results to current RCP polling averages, you will find similar trends in the Midwest and throughout the country. The following list highlights changes in Obama’s 2008 election results versus the latest 2012 RCP poll averages:

Now, a caveat here: not all of the polls above are for likely voters, so RCP’s averages include some data limited to registered voter polling. This could skew the data towards or away from Obama. Also, many of these polls contain large amounts of “undecided” voters. For example, the Ohio average shows a 1.8-point lead for Obama: Obama 46.4, Romney 44.6. This represents a significant percentage of voters that have yet to commit to a candidate, and indicates a weaker position for the President. Many of his polling “leads” are softened by a representative polling percentage significantly under 50%, always a weak point for an incumbent.

My main point here is that the trend has definitely moved against re-election. This is not to say that Obama won’t be re-elected, but with a tightened race, he certainly has a lot more ground to defend.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: election2012; obama; romney

1 posted on 06/10/2012 4:20:13 PM PDT by rightcoast
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To: rightcoast
Probably obvious, but I meant "With 5 months to go..."
2 posted on 06/10/2012 4:22:15 PM PDT by rightcoast
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To: rightcoast

Never be afraid to ‘Click Abuse,’ report the error, and have us fix it.


3 posted on 06/10/2012 4:27:12 PM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: rightcoast

....... a tightened race, he certainly has a lot more ground to defend.


A lot more ground to defend with nothing to defend it with.


4 posted on 06/10/2012 4:27:34 PM PDT by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: rightcoast
M-A-R-T-I-A-L.

L-A-W.

5 posted on 06/10/2012 4:32:40 PM PDT by Copenhagen Smile
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To: rightcoast
Photobucket
6 posted on 06/10/2012 4:33:33 PM PDT by CMailBag
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To: rightcoast

arpaio criminal investigation...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=235XSym1d4g


7 posted on 06/10/2012 4:35:14 PM PDT by biggredd1
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To: Admin Moderator

Can I click abuse just to say “HI THERE! How ya been!” ?


8 posted on 06/10/2012 4:39:23 PM PDT by Lazamataz (People who resort to Godwin's Law are just like Hitler.)
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To: rightcoast
McCain-Palin Surging in the Polls - September 9, 2008
WASHINGTON — Senator McCain is entering the final eight weeks of the presidential campaign surging in the polls following his party's national convention, with the selection of Governor Palin as his running mate appearing to have closed a lingering gap with Senator Obama . . .

Five months is a long time, particularly with no ethics or morals to constrain the tactics used by Obama and his media supporters. It's not over until it's over, and we have to work every day from now until after election day to defeat Obama - work like our lives depend on it (they do!). There will be surprises and crises, natural or contrived, and we have to work quickly to neutralize each of those as they arise.

9 posted on 06/10/2012 4:39:33 PM PDT by Pollster1 (A boy becomes a man when a man is needed - John Steinbeck)
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To: rightcoast

Obama will lose and it will not be remotely close.


10 posted on 06/10/2012 4:42:11 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: Lazamataz

Don’t disturb the moderators when they are encouraging self-abuse...


11 posted on 06/10/2012 4:53:04 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Lazamataz

Don’t disturb the moderators when they are encouraging self-abuse...


12 posted on 06/10/2012 4:53:43 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: rightcoast
Not to worry - that's how I read it. Anyway, don't discount his secret weapon:


13 posted on 06/10/2012 4:53:53 PM PDT by caveat emptor (Zippity Do Dah)
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To: Tennessean4Bush

Your tagline is appropriate, since your confidence is like that of Candide!


14 posted on 06/10/2012 5:03:27 PM PDT by karnage
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To: rightcoast

With only five months left till he’s gone Obama isn’t going to anything and couldn’t do anything to save his job or get re-elected and he knows it. Every con artist realizes at some point the game just isn’t working any more. He’s running to lose, mark my words.


15 posted on 06/10/2012 5:35:33 PM PDT by jmacusa (Political correctness is cultural Marxism. I'm not a Marxist.)
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To: Pollster1

Thanks for the reminder. Complacency is our enemy.


16 posted on 06/10/2012 5:38:25 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: rightcoast

Never EVER count out the left’s ability to steal elections.

They already are working HARD to secure the illegal alien vote. Add to that the holder-sanctioned black panther intimidation and this will be a tough election.

Not from the issues but from the criminal enterprise called the democrat party.


17 posted on 06/10/2012 5:39:15 PM PDT by freedumb2003 ('RETRO' Abortions = performed on 84th trimester individuals who think killing babies is a "right.")
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To: jmacusa
Every con artist realizes at some point the game just isn’t working any more. He’s running to lose, mark my words.

Part of a good con is making it look when you get caught like the other guy has a chance to take you for some money. Never get overconfident with a professional grifter, and either Obama or his backers are among the most successful cheats in history.

18 posted on 06/10/2012 5:41:49 PM PDT by Pollster1 (A boy becomes a man when a man is needed - John Steinbeck)
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To: rightcoast

HOPE - (H)elp (O)bama (P)residency (E)nd!!!


19 posted on 06/10/2012 5:43:36 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: Pollster1
The smartest con is when the pigeon doesn't know they're being taken. People have wised up to Barky. Obama and his gang would screw up a cluster f**k.
20 posted on 06/10/2012 5:56:59 PM PDT by jmacusa (Political correctness is cultural Marxism. I'm not a Marxist.)
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To: rightcoast

Be very, very cautious as to such a turn of events, I think about recent ‘should have been’ situations and especially way back with Nixon losing Illinois/Chicago to Kennedy. Nixon understood the politics at that time. The unions and the international new world order cabal are not going to let the USA be the USA if they can do anything about it. Even so I do see a ray of hope for a change back.


21 posted on 06/10/2012 5:58:37 PM PDT by noinfringers2
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To: SandRat

Have you seen the latest acronym? OMG? Obama Must Go!


22 posted on 06/10/2012 6:10:33 PM PDT by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
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To: rightcoast; All

Anyone here gotten the “Rosebud” email??? Just wondering... (has to do with election)


23 posted on 06/10/2012 6:11:52 PM PDT by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
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To: goodnesswins

That was new to me.


24 posted on 06/10/2012 6:13:14 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: rightcoast
...... This will still be an uphill battle for the GOP. It is very very important to be fluid and extremely flexible with approaches to be used in this campaign.

This administration is not beyond doing anything to reign victorious in this election. There are already rumors beginning to surface in certain circles of a major planned "Unplanned Event" close to election time to bring the nation "together" and to showcase our dynamic Leader in Chief as he takes charge of the situation.......

..... in such a case as this ..... I hope the GOP has a plan "B"

.... Anything is possible.

25 posted on 06/10/2012 6:24:18 PM PDT by R_Kangel ( "A Nation of Sheep ..... Will Beget ..... a Nation Ruled by Wolves.")
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To: R_Kangel

Any “Unplanned Event” by this crowd would go horribly wrong, based on their track record. Let’s just hope such event justifiably costs them the election and doesn’t lead to a bungled catastrophe, loss of life, etc.


26 posted on 06/10/2012 7:37:02 PM PDT by Minnesota fox
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To: Tennessean4Bush
I pray you are right, FRiend.

I can not take four more years of an economy like this nor can any of my friends. Any number of us are on the verge of pushing a grocery cart down the street and sleeping in the park.

This insanity has to end.

27 posted on 06/10/2012 7:50:07 PM PDT by warsaw44
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To: Tennessean4Bush
I pray you are right, FRiend.

I can not take four more years of an economy like this nor can any of my friends. Any number of us are on the verge of pushing a grocery cart down the street and sleeping in the park.

This insanity has to end.

28 posted on 06/10/2012 7:50:07 PM PDT by warsaw44
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To: freedumb2003

Anybody who fears Black Panther-style intimidation at the polls needs to either cast an absentee ballot or call 9-1-1 to report the incident and describe the paramilitary perp, then walk into the polling place as the cops are speaking to the thug.


29 posted on 06/10/2012 9:40:28 PM PDT by Two Kids' Dad ((((( ABO - 2012 )))))
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To: Pollster1
Bears repeating:

It's not over until it's over, and we have to work every day from now until after election day to defeat Obama - work like our lives depend on it (they do!).

"The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves; whether they are to have any property they can call their own; whether their Houses, and Farms, are to be pillaged and destroyed, and they consigned to a State of Wretchedness from which no human efforts will probably deliver them.

The fate of unborn Millions will now depend, under God, on the Courage and Conduct of this army — Our cruel and unrelenting Enemy leaves us no choice but a brave resistance, or the most abject submission; this is all we can expect — We have therefore to resolve to conquer or die: Our own Country’s Honor, all call upon us for a vigorous and manly exertion, and if we now shamefully fail, we shall become infamous to the whole world.

Let us therefore rely upon the goodness of the Cause, and the aid of the supreme Being, in whose hands Victory is, to animate and encourage us to great and noble Actions — The Eyes of all our Countrymen are now upon us, and we shall have their blessings, and praises, if happily we are the instruments of saving them from the tyranny meditated against them. Let us therefore animate and encourage each other, and show the whole world, that a Freeman contending for LIBERTY on his own ground is superior to any slavish mercenary on earth." - George Washington, Address to the Continental Army before the Battle of Long Island (27 August 1776).

30 posted on 06/10/2012 9:58:16 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: unkus

A good point on having to defend it with, both with record and money. Obama so far is behind in fundraising. He outspent McCain 3 to 1.


31 posted on 06/11/2012 3:45:35 AM PDT by rightcoast
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To: Pollster1

I agree that over-confidence is a fool’s errand at this point. I’m just looking at current trends, which can and will be in motion over the next 5 months.


32 posted on 06/11/2012 3:49:01 AM PDT by rightcoast
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To: caveat emptor

I am hopeful that the “dead voter advantage” for the Democrats will be mitigated by improved voter identification laws in Florida and other states.


33 posted on 06/11/2012 3:53:33 AM PDT by rightcoast
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To: thecodont

President Obama MAY lose but it will be a close race as millions of voters abhore a white, wealthy Morman. Folks know now, in the hearts that Obama is an utter failure but that may still not be enough to push people into the GOP -even as a last resort...


34 posted on 06/11/2012 3:54:53 AM PDT by Netz (Netz)
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