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Obama’s Problem With White, Non-College Educated Voters is Getting Worse (Bitter clingers?)
The New Republic ^ | June 11, 2012 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 06/12/2012 12:39:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

One demographic has plagued Obama since his primary duel with Hillary Clinton: white voters without a college degree. Although Obama ultimately won enough white non-college voters to win the presidency in 2008, his performance was underwhelming by historic standards. And over the last four years, Obama’s already tepid support among white voters without a college degree has collapsed. At the same time, the “newer” elements of the Democratic coalition—college educated and non-white voters—have continued to offer elevated levels of support to the president. The latest polls show this trend continuing, indicating an unprecedented education gap among white voters—a gap that could put Obama’s electoral chances in jeopardy.

Let’s dig into the numbers. Since February, 25 state and national polls from Quinnipiac and Pew Research disaggregated Obama’s standing against Romney by educational attainment. The dataset has weaknesses, as the Quinnipiac state polls sample six somewhat unrepresentative East Coast states. Even so, the degree of consistency across the six states and the six national polls is striking: Of the 25 polls, 22 show a larger drop-off among non-college educated white voters.

(GRAPH AT LINK)

On average, Obama has lost nearly 6 percentage points among white voters without a college degree. Given that Obama had already lost millions of traditionally Democratic white working class voters in 2008, this degree of further deterioration is striking. In the three national polls conducted since April, Obama held just 34 percent of white voters without a college degree, compared to 40 percent in 2008. Thirty-four percent places Obama in the company of Walter Mondale, George McGovern, and the 2010 House Democrats. These are landslide numbers.

At the same time, college educated white voters continue to offer 2008 levels of support to the President. In the same 25 polls, Obama lost an average of just 1.5 percentage points among white voters with a college degree. The national polls show Obama holding just as well, and the most recent Pew poll actually shows Obama improving on his 2008 performance among college educated whites.

The uneven decline of Obama’s 2008 coalition has opened an unprecedented education gap among white voters. The current polls show that the education gap could nearly double, at least if Romney can persuade the undecided white working class Obama ‘08 voters with reservations about Obama’s performance. In 2008, Obama lost white college graduates by four points and whites without a college degree by 19 points. If the national polls are correct, and Obama currently holds approximately 35 percent of the white non-college vote, then Romney has an opportunity to win white non-college voters by 30 points. If Romney does so, the education gap would increase from 15 points in 2008 to 26 points in 2012. For comparison, the vaunted gender gap was 14 points in 2008 and 13 points in the most recent Pew poll.

The emerging education gap could rejigger the electoral map, leaving Obama well positioned in states where Obama is less dependent on the support of white voters without a college degree—the educated and diverse mid-Atlantic and southwestern states—but giving Romney an advantage in states where Democrats need white non-college voters—the traditionally Democratic Midwestern states, where nearly half of Obama’s 2008 supporters were whites without a college degree.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that the growing education gap manifests uniformly across a diverse country. In 2008, Obama received about the same share of white voters without a college degree as Kerry in 2004, but that national-level stability belied big regional shifts. Obama had made significant gains among white working class voters in the Midwest and West, vaulting traditionally Republican states like Montana and Indiana into the toss-up column. At the same time, white working class voters in greater Appalachia and much of the rural South either didn’t vote or switched to McCain, leaving Obama routed in historically competitive states like West Virginia and Arkansas.

Unfortunately, there isn’t yet enough data to determine the geographic distribution of Obama’s white non-college defectors. Even so, wide variance in Obama’s dependence on white non-college voters points toward the possibility that Obama’s chances in Wisconsin could be in jeopardy, even as Obama’s narrower margins in Virginia and North Carolina appear intact. This means that Obama’s strong showing in the Wisconsin recall exit poll takes outsized significance in this context. If Obama’s enduring strength among educated and non-white voters keeps Obama competitive in traditionally Republican states like Virginia and North Carolina, but Romney doesn’t get his end of the bargain in Democratic-but-white-working-class states like Wisconsin, the electoral map starts to look a lot better for Obama. On the other hand, Wisconsin’s demographics give the Romney campaign cause to at least initially contest the state, even if the current polling looks unfavorable.

(GRAPH AT LINK)

There is, however, a potential upside for Obama in all this: Despite the president’s diminished standing among less educated white voters, Romney has not yet convinced disaffected voters to join his cause. Instead, many of these voters remain undecided, and Romney still trails McCain’s eventual tallies in many of these polls. In all but one of the 25 polls, less educated whites were more likely to be undecided than college educated whites. In the six national polls, 5 percent of college educated whites were undecided compared to 9 percent of whites without a college degree.

Romney’s road to victory starts with consolidating disaffected voters who do not approve of the President’s performance. Unsurprisingly then, the Obama campaign’s initial wave of advertising appears well-suited to disrupting those efforts. Depicting Romney as a plutocratic corporate raider seems likely to resonate with working class voters, especially since many traditionally have voted for Democratic presidential candidates. On the other hand, most of these voters harbor deep reservations about Obama’s performance and probably voted for Republicans in the 2010 midterms. Romney’s main goal in the coming months will be to convince them to join his cause.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: polls; romneyobama; whites
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Comments?
1 posted on 06/12/2012 12:39:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If he loses it will be do to racism. That is the mantra now being pushed hard.

Luckily, he still has the 1/32 Cherokee vote in the bag.


2 posted on 06/12/2012 12:43:15 PM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
the educated and diverse mid-Atlantic and southwestern states

Oh, fer chrissake.

3 posted on 06/12/2012 12:46:23 PM PDT by HIDEK6
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

White non-college educated voters have to work for a living.

Obama doesn’t know anything about that, he never hit a decent lick in his life.

Community organising is not exactly manual labor.


4 posted on 06/12/2012 12:46:53 PM PDT by Venturer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It isn’t that they’re “educated,” it’s that they are indoctrinated.


5 posted on 06/12/2012 12:46:53 PM PDT by smalltownslick
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Yeah ... there's just too danged many of us out here.

Buh-bye, zero ... and all the czars that rode in with you.

6 posted on 06/12/2012 12:46:53 PM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: SampleMan

I believe 17% of Bush voters voted for Obama, while only about 8% of Kerry voters voted for McCain. In any case, all racism blame lies squarely on any Kerry voters that voted for McCain, since Bush voters that went for McCain didn’t change how they vote.


7 posted on 06/12/2012 12:48:10 PM PDT by MNDude ( Victimhood is the Holy Grail of liberalism)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

8 posted on 06/12/2012 12:49:23 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The White, non-College educated are the most likely to feel the effects of Affirmative Action.
9 posted on 06/12/2012 12:50:45 PM PDT by Cowboy Bob (Greed + Envy = Liberalism)
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To: SampleMan

I think he’s in trouble with the 1/2 white, 1/4 Hispanic and 1/4 black vote, like George Zimmerman, though.


10 posted on 06/12/2012 12:55:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Proof that a college education makes you stupid.


11 posted on 06/12/2012 12:56:16 PM PDT by miss marmelstein
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama’s Problem With White, Non-College Educated Voters

.. i.e., white working class people he never liked anyway. Hopefully they get the message this time around.


12 posted on 06/12/2012 12:56:16 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I'm white and college educated.

Can I join the party?

13 posted on 06/12/2012 12:57:25 PM PDT by evad (STOP SPENDING, STOP SPENDING, STOP SPENDING. It's the SPENDING Stupid)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So, calling a fairly large voting block stupid gun loving religious bitter clinger crazy veteran hicks causes them not to want to vote for your candidate?

I find that hard to believe. /s


14 posted on 06/12/2012 12:57:51 PM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik (In a tornado, even turkeys can fly.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yet more proof of Mr. Jefferson’s (himself a highly educated man) concerns that the “sophistocated” and allegedly “educated” elites then beginning to gather in the cities would largely abandon the common sense he trusted in the rough and practical farmers and tradesmen who remained on the rural land (aka “the real world”).

Those values of hard work, love of tradition and common sense were absolute necessities if they and their families were to survive in that more natural environment, an environment that would not tolerate the failure to apply reason and common sense to their behavior.

In other words, those on the land either lived by “the rules” nature imposed upon them — or they perished.


15 posted on 06/12/2012 12:58:00 PM PDT by Dick Bachert (NOVEMBER 6th: THE END OF AN ERROR! Let us pray it's not the start of another!*)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
One demographic has plagued Obama since his primary duel with Hillary Clinton: white voters without a college degree.

One of the positive aspects of not being black and obsessed with race, or not undergoing 4 years of advanced liberal indoctrination.

We know that not all blacks or all white college graduates drank the Obama Kool-Aid, but the majority did.


16 posted on 06/12/2012 12:58:05 PM PDT by Iron Munro (John Adams: 'Two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword, the other is by debt')
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
At the same time, college educated white voters continue to offer 2008 levels of support to the President. In the same 25 polls, Obama lost an average of just 1.5 percentage points among white voters with a college degree. The national polls show Obama holding just as well, and the most recent Pew poll actually shows Obama improving on his 2008 performance among college educated whites.

Who are these people? I want to help them get their money back (if they've been repaying their student loans).

17 posted on 06/12/2012 12:59:43 PM PDT by ILS21R (John Locke: When the social contract is broken, the people must revolt.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obama takes the American fabric, cuts it up into little pieces in order to marginalize this or that group and play one off the other. He does this for three and a half years and then pretends that someone else carved it up into some patchwork of groups because they think this or that, or engage in a profession of this or that, belong or don't belong to a union, practice this or that faith, kill unborn or don't, carry student debt or not, this color or that color,.........an nauseum.

And he wonders why his coalition is defunct?

18 posted on 06/12/2012 1:00:19 PM PDT by blackdog (There is no such thing as healing, only a balance between destructive and constructive forces.)
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To: smalltownslick

I think it is sad that the result of an expensive college education is the inability to think for oneself. Or maybe these days that is programmed out before college. Either that or the education places people in jobs where everyone is a lockstep liberal—which is true of most state and local government bureaucracies including school districts.


19 posted on 06/12/2012 1:00:48 PM PDT by Sicvee (Sicvee)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
One demographic has plagued Obama since his primary duel with Hillary Clinton: white voters without a college degree...just goes to show how smart all those non-college educated types really are....
20 posted on 06/12/2012 1:00:48 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: evad

A lot of us with degrees still think like the working class. Some, because we still are, and some because we remember what it is like to do without. Others, because we detest snobs like these Obama people and others because we don’t buy all this New Age PC nonsense!!


21 posted on 06/12/2012 1:01:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
They are looking at the wrong characteristics of this group, but for Liberals, race is first.

This is the lower middle class, not on Entitlements group. They happen to be mostly white, since similar people the black culture are conditioned to not try and fall down to Entitlements by their Democrat Plantation Owners.

22 posted on 06/12/2012 1:02:41 PM PDT by 5thGenTexan
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Link doesn’t work: Page not found.


23 posted on 06/12/2012 1:04:48 PM PDT by bcsco
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Barry stepped in it bigtime when the Black Panthers put out the hit on George Zimmerman and he did not energetically disavow them.

Message received lout and clear by white voters. I am on THEIR side, and will put the full force of the Federal Government behind them when they declare a race war against YOU.

Whether that’s the message Obama intended to send is debatable. But it has been received, loud and clear.


24 posted on 06/12/2012 1:05:04 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well, I may be a racist redneck, but I have advanced degrees and I despise 0bama. Always have, Always will!


25 posted on 06/12/2012 1:08:14 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Sworn to Defend The Constitution Against ALL Enemies, Foreign and Domestic. So Help Me GOD!)
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To: ILS21R

Just goes to show you can’t educate away stupidity.


26 posted on 06/12/2012 1:09:58 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: bcsco

Hahahahaha! It got pulled after I linked it here! LOL What are they afraid of?!


27 posted on 06/12/2012 1:14:51 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

College makes you stupid?


28 posted on 06/12/2012 1:17:25 PM PDT by budwiesest (It's that girl from Alaska, again.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

>>Obama’s Problem With White, Non-College Educated Voters is Getting Worse (Bitter clingers?)

So people who didn’t receive 2-20 years of liberal indoctrination can see that Obama is a Marxist POS and not the Black Messiah sent to save us from the evil planet-killing capitalists?? Who’da thunk it?!?


29 posted on 06/12/2012 1:20:12 PM PDT by Bryanw92 (Sic semper tyrannis)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Gots me one dem ther colege decrees an even gots me sumthun called a master decree which iz sumthun ya can git foll’un colege. Stil cant stand the gay sory azz in da whit houze.


30 posted on 06/12/2012 1:20:30 PM PDT by Gabrial (The nightmare will continue as long as the nightmare is in the White House)
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To: miss marmelstein

No, not stupid but arrogant. They believe whats between their ears makes them something special. They then feel free to view themselves as rulers of the simple masses, any they view to be inferior. This is the way the world has always been. If its not education, its blood line etc etc. In the end arrogance is arrogance no matter how you arrive at it.


31 posted on 06/12/2012 1:23:49 PM PDT by 556x45
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To: evad
Gads, New Republic, this (mostly) white university graduate never liked the Wonderschmuck known as Barack H. Obama. Then again, it does not require a great deal of intellectual prowess to see that Barry is horribly unqualified for the job; it does require some common sense, though.
32 posted on 06/12/2012 1:24:19 PM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four Fried Chickens and a Coke)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

If conservatives would flood their local police departments with calls reporting that crime, do you think they’d finally do something about it? Why are the black panthers not in jail? Does that mean I can put a million dollar bounty (”dead or alive”) on my enemies?


33 posted on 06/12/2012 1:24:50 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Just because they do not have a college degree does not mean they are unskilled.


34 posted on 06/12/2012 1:27:06 PM PDT by ops33 (Senior Master Sergeant, USAF (Retired))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well, barry said he was not worried about getting the “white working class” votes. FUbo.


35 posted on 06/12/2012 1:29:42 PM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (It's time to take out the trash in DC.)
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To: ops33
Just because they do not have a college degree does not mean they are unskilled.

I'm sure they are highly skilled. They're just stooooopid and racis[t].

36 posted on 06/12/2012 1:30:41 PM PDT by Drill Thrawl (Another day. Another small provocation. Another step closer.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Someday, one way or another, Obama and his brood will be ejected from the White House.

But the incredibly stupid people who voted him into office will still be with us, still voting and still breeding new generations of stupid people.


37 posted on 06/12/2012 1:31:14 PM PDT by Iron Munro (John Adams: 'Two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword, the other is by debt')
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Maybe those who didn’t go to college never got the lesson that they’re supposed to be impressed by someone who went to Harvard just because he or she went to Harvard because that automatically makes him or her better than them.

Maybe they’re stuck in the old-fashioned way of measuring a person by his or her results.


38 posted on 06/12/2012 1:31:37 PM PDT by JeffChrz (Why are college kids worried about an interest rate doubling instead of tuition doubling?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“...college educated white voters continue to offer 2008 levels of support to the President...”

Wow, have they been dumbed-down or what? I’d support him all the way up to the gallows, or to the first train out of D.C.


39 posted on 06/12/2012 1:36:23 PM PDT by USMCPOP (Father of LCpl. Karl Linn, KIA 1/26/2005 Al Haqlaniyah, Iraq)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Left has gone anti-white, those who remain are narcissists who are both self loathing and convinced of transcendence ( I want to send them to Zimbabwe).


40 posted on 06/12/2012 1:37:00 PM PDT by junta ("Peace is a racket", testimony from crime boss Barrack Hussein Obama.)
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To: 556x45

Oh, no, they’re stupid alright. I had a smart friend who decided to get her PhD in “American Studies.” She came out a complete dunce who tells me that the American Indian wrote (or greatly influenced) The Constitution. I KID YOU NOT.


41 posted on 06/12/2012 1:39:31 PM PDT by miss marmelstein
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To: HIDEK6
the educated and diverse mid-Atlantic and southwestern states . . .

Yeah, this is supposed to be Obamao's base.

I suppose it would be rude to point out that he already won every single mid-Atlantic state in 2008 and lost only two in the southwest: Utah, where he has a snowball's chance in hell and Arizona, where his prospects are only slightly better.

Maybe the New Republic should explain exactly how he is supposed to improve his showing here to off-set probable losses elsewhere.

42 posted on 06/12/2012 1:40:37 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obama’s Problem With White, Non-College Educated Voters is Getting Worse

Obama’s Problem with Non-Racist Blacks and Whites, Non-Liberal-College Indoctrinated Voters is Getting Worse


43 posted on 06/12/2012 1:40:37 PM PDT by Iron Munro (John Adams: 'Two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword, the other is by debt')
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Link still there:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/103969/obama%E2%80%99s-problem-white-non-college-educated-voters-getting-worse


44 posted on 06/12/2012 1:45:03 PM PDT by dynachrome ("Our forefathers didn't bury their guns. They buried those that tried to take them.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Not all College courses of study are the same. I wish someone would break this down by degree type (Engineering, business, hard sciences, Social sciences, etc). I have a feeling that those fields of study that I consider the smartest probably tend to be more conservative than, say, Social Studies students.


45 posted on 06/12/2012 1:48:40 PM PDT by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

i enjoy reading the stupidity in the comments from the lunatic left- like this one:

“Sophia- I’d bet Obama’s problem with uneducated white voters is the fact that he is a black guy.”

so what about the fact uneducated black voters will vote for obama based solely on the fact he’s black???


46 posted on 06/12/2012 1:51:53 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: God luvs America

Cohn, I will take a wild guess and say your one of the white college educated democrats who still support obama who its without a doubt the worst president in the history of the U.S.. Well so much for a college education.


47 posted on 06/12/2012 2:15:41 PM PDT by spawn44 (mu)
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To: Army Air Corps
Yes. I like this assessment by Real Clear Politics.

Barack Obama may be well-intentioned. He may be a fine father. He may have an excellent jump shot. And he may be a first-rate community organizer. But as president, he is simply — and by now almost undeniably — overmatched by events. By Obama’s own standards – by what he said and by what he promised — he is a failure.

48 posted on 06/12/2012 3:19:35 PM PDT by evad (STOP SPENDING, STOP SPENDING, STOP SPENDING. It's the SPENDING Stupid)
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To: SampleMan
If he loses it will be do to racism. That is the mantra now being pushed hard.

Fine. Whatever. Just so long as he loses.

49 posted on 06/12/2012 3:26:37 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

50 posted on 06/12/2012 3:33:01 PM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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