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Note to Florida FReepers - Weather Service May Be Very Wrong, TS Debbie May Move Here v. Texas
Friends and Fiends / Weather Guesser Types

Posted on 06/24/2012 11:53:09 AM PDT by MindBender26

National Hurricane Center has TS Debby moving west with a landfall in TX. Many think that is wrong.

Keep a watch at NEXRAD, but for what it's worth, my best WAG is 50 kt winds, moving onshore north of Cedar Key, across state then, out into to Atlantic at Amelia Island.

This will be a slow moving storm, so flooding from water accumulation could be a problem. Some areas north of Tampa Bay have already had 4-6 inches of rain.

No guarantee, but worth a watch.

Be safe


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: debbie; vanity
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1 posted on 06/24/2012 11:53:16 AM PDT by MindBender26
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To: MindBender26

A timey post. By tonight, or tomorrow morning, the National Hurricane Center will show a landfalling system in Florida, likely north of Tampa. Could even be a weak Hurricane Debby by then.


2 posted on 06/24/2012 12:08:06 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (What did the President know and when did he know it?)
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To: MindBender26
I'm pretty sure you are correct. after seeing


3 posted on 06/24/2012 12:11:50 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lame and ill-informed post)
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To: MindBender26

What do you see coming up that will steer the storm?


4 posted on 06/24/2012 12:13:16 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Congrats to Ted Kennedy! He's been sober for two years now!!)
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To: MindBender26

5 posted on 06/24/2012 12:18:06 PM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (How much better off would we be if these bastards would just leave us alone?)
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To: VeniVidiVici

Just a WAG, but 55 years in Florida... and the aviation weather winds aloft forecast.


6 posted on 06/24/2012 12:18:18 PM PDT by MindBender26 (America can survive 4 years of Romney. She cannot survive another 4 years of an unfettered Obama!)
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To: MindBender26

I remember being in Biloxi in 1975; there was a hurricane headed directly for us, and just before hitting us it got redirected to Pensacola, which was not expecting it. They got thrashed.


7 posted on 06/24/2012 12:18:29 PM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: VeniVidiVici

Love your tag line... and Aih-Bone!


8 posted on 06/24/2012 12:20:16 PM PDT by MindBender26 (America can survive 4 years of Romney. She cannot survive another 4 years of an unfettered Obama!)
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To: MindBender26
No they don't...not any more. Current track takes into SE Louisiana. Their forecast discussion makes it very clear they may have to move the track east to FL. And frankly...it's been part of my forecast (I'm a military meteorologist) since before Debby was Debby. Sheared storms like to track towards their convection.

And I imagine the 21Z forecast will be east of the 15z one...probably into AL/MS or the panhandle.

9 posted on 06/24/2012 12:27:36 PM PDT by NELSON111
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To: MindBender26

So basically, Debby could hit Dallas?

;)


10 posted on 06/24/2012 12:29:43 PM PDT by meyer (It's 1860 all over again - the taxpayer is the new "N" word)
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To: MindBender26

The latest Euro model runs show Debby stalling out over the Panhandle area at 72 hours, leading to serious flooding potential. Lousiana is getting prepared, too - Governor Jindal just declared a State of Emergency for potentially major flooding issues.


11 posted on 06/24/2012 12:39:33 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (What did the President know and when did he know it?)
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To: meyer

Debbie does Dallas, huh?


12 posted on 06/24/2012 12:41:03 PM PDT by NCC-1701 (In Memphis on January 20, 2009, pump price were $1.49. We all know what happened after that.)
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To: meyer; NCC-1701

The problem is, most anyone under 50 has no idea what we are laughing about!

:)


13 posted on 06/24/2012 12:44:39 PM PDT by MindBender26 (America can survive 4 years of Romney. She cannot survive another 4 years of an unfettered Obama!)
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To: NELSON111

70-80kt then, if Debbie stays offshore long enough to come ashore in FL?


14 posted on 06/24/2012 12:47:54 PM PDT by MindBender26 (America can survive 4 years of Romney. She cannot survive another 4 years of an unfettered Obama!)
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To: MindBender26

We are hoping that Debby does Texas....and leaves us with a wet spot...


15 posted on 06/24/2012 12:48:27 PM PDT by texanyankee
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To: texanyankee

Yes yes please please. From your keyboard to God’s ear.

(Drying up in the Hill Country)


16 posted on 06/24/2012 12:51:10 PM PDT by squarebarb
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To: MindBender26

Everbody said Charley was going to be a Cat 1 heading to Tampa and ended up hitting us in Punta Gorda as a Cat 4


17 posted on 06/24/2012 1:01:17 PM PDT by small business owner
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To: Palmetto Patriot

KEEP IT AWAY FROM NY AND PA! We had enough with Irene and Lee! We are still digging out!


18 posted on 06/24/2012 1:02:56 PM PDT by Shady (The undeniable truth of the Obama Administration...The numbers do not lie.)
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To: NELSON111

If Debby comes back to Florida - makes landfall above St. Petersburg - water will be pushed into Tampa Bay... If that happens we’ll have massive flooding all over this area - no place for the water to exit...


19 posted on 06/24/2012 1:16:57 PM PDT by GOPJ (The 'doting court eunuchs' of the MSM fail to notice...)
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To: MindBender26

Watching the latest animated loop and there isn’t much movement, but it does appear to be tracking to the NE. Unless some unseen steering current pushes in another direction, I don’t see a Texas landfall. South Texas could use the rain and DFW would appreciate the cooling cloud cover, so send it over.


20 posted on 06/24/2012 1:31:25 PM PDT by Dysart
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To: MindBender26

Pensacola - Fort Walton Beach - Panama City already getting the leading edge of the rotation. Not too bad..... Yet.


21 posted on 06/24/2012 1:31:58 PM PDT by Traveler59 ( Truth is a journey, not a destination.)
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To: MindBender26

We could use a Lil’ Debbie in NC...dry as a bone here.


22 posted on 06/24/2012 1:32:18 PM PDT by moovova
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To: squarebarb; texanyankee

Your remarks are asinine. Get rain another way. We on the coast are not recovered from Ike yet. I know you need rain. We suffered the drought, too, although not as badly as some parts of Texas. I hope y’all get rain and soon, but not by way of a hurricane.


23 posted on 06/24/2012 1:39:01 PM PDT by ru4liberty
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To: MindBender26

We are already getting tropical storm winds and heavy rain in the Florida Panhandle. If they are predicting it to go west, it’s going to have to make a sharp left turn and head on that way because it looks like it’s moving in now.


24 posted on 06/24/2012 1:43:41 PM PDT by bamagirl1944 (That's short for Alabama, not Obama)
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To: GOPJ; MindBender26
no place for the water to exit.
Yeah there is - up here in the Clearwater area its going across my backyard and down my driveway ... no worries. ;-)

Actually, you're right. Anything right up Tampa Bay will be a mess! We're three miles inland and easily 15' above sea level in a wooded area with a few big branches down so far.

The wind is picking up and if it really kicks in with all the soggy ground and dead tree branches it could get exciting.

Tree trimmers regularly drop by and tell us for $15,000 they could clean up our little forest. If things get dicey we'll move the vehicles up the street ... ;-)

Does NOAA.org send sympathy cards when the storm goes the opposite direction they predicted?

MindBender26 - Thanks for the heads up - Told my Mom in Az yesterday not to worry - Debby is heading due west towards Corpus Christi ...

25 posted on 06/24/2012 1:45:58 PM PDT by Tunehead54 (Nothing funny here ;-)
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To: y'all
THREAT TO LOUISIANA LESSENS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 85.8W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

Read rest at link, not able to format it all on the go.

26 posted on 06/24/2012 1:47:06 PM PDT by Dysart
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To: MindBender26

Not to get technical..

But the GFS model really screwed the pooch on this one.


27 posted on 06/24/2012 1:47:31 PM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative
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To: MindBender26

Please don’t take our storm! We need every drop we can get in Texas!

We are still so dry, and the danger of more forest fires burning out or control is very real...

I’m hoping and praying it comes to Texas.


28 posted on 06/24/2012 1:51:33 PM PDT by basil
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To: MindBender26

Please don’t take our storm! We need every drop we can get in Texas!

We are still so dry, and the danger of more forest fires burning out or control is very real...

I’m hoping and praying it comes to Texas.


29 posted on 06/24/2012 1:51:56 PM PDT by basil
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To: MindBender26

Please don’t take our storm! We need every drop we can get in Texas!

We are still so dry, and the danger of more forest fires burning out or control is very real...

I’m hoping and praying it comes to Texas.


30 posted on 06/24/2012 1:52:05 PM PDT by basil
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To: MindBender26; mickie; flaglady47; JulieRNR21; surfer; seenenuf; seekthetruth; Bushbacker1; ...
An hour ago half a huge tree across the street split open and fell straight across the street. Half of it fell the other direction right on top of the house. If anyone had been driving by at the wrong moment they would have been crushed.

The rain is coming down in torrents for hours and hours now.....water is coming over the sea wall of the Grand Canal running past my place. Water is only a few feet from folks doors now....rain shows no signs of abating.

We're under tornado watch here in our town which is about 20 minutes due north of Clearwater 5 minutes from the Gulf de Mejico.

Leni

31 posted on 06/24/2012 1:54:54 PM PDT by MinuteGal
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To: MinuteGal

I’m in Sebring. Just checked Tampa radar. Looks like y’all will be getting some relief in the next hour or so it the storms continue the same track.


32 posted on 06/24/2012 2:15:43 PM PDT by Islander7 (There is no septic system so vile, so filthy, the left won't drink from to further their agenda)
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To: ru4liberty

Oh chill out.....
we dont ask for devastation - just rain....
Historically, many droughts are busted by hurricanes and we certainly are still suffering from this devastating drought....

We cant count on rain in the summer ‘cept by hurricanes or tropical storms....


33 posted on 06/24/2012 2:26:41 PM PDT by texanyankee
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To: squarebarb

Most definitely! We are here in Llano county and though things are better than this time last year. Lake Buchanan is only a bit more than half full.


34 posted on 06/24/2012 2:31:14 PM PDT by texanyankee
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To: texanyankee
Darn! for a minute I though this would be another great smack down story of the Florida mayonnaise head.
35 posted on 06/24/2012 2:39:42 PM PDT by DAC21
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To: texanyankee

It surprises me that we haven’t yet recovered from Ike. I’m near Houston and I hope it moves closer. We need the rain.


36 posted on 06/24/2012 2:44:56 PM PDT by Terry Mross (To My Liberal Kinfolk: Don't call, email or write until you've gotten your brain fixed.)
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To: DuncanWaring
in 1975; there was a hurricane headed directly for us, and just before hitting us it got redirected to Pensacola

I think Pat Robertson was responsible for that one.

37 posted on 06/24/2012 2:49:57 PM PDT by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: NCC-1701

I thought Debby does dishes!


38 posted on 06/24/2012 2:50:42 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: MinuteGal

Stay safe, Leni! bttt


39 posted on 06/24/2012 3:48:05 PM PDT by Matchett-PI ("There is no limit to the depravity of the liberal mind" ~ Rush Limbaugh 5/23/12)
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To: MindBender26
Here's a really useful forecast map:

So, it looks like Debbie will hit Louisiana, and/or Mississippi, and/or Florida, and/or Georgia, and/or South Carolina, and/or Nova Scotia. Or, maybe not.

No need to thank me for providing this vital information. I'm always glad to help.

40 posted on 06/24/2012 5:10:36 PM PDT by southernnorthcarolina ("Better be wise by the misfortunes of others than by your own." -- Aesop)
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To: ru4liberty

I wish every inland resident could ride through a Cat 3 hurricane (like Rita) before wishing for hurrirain.


41 posted on 06/24/2012 5:14:55 PM PDT by catfish1957 (My dream for hope and change is to see the punk POTUS in prison for treason)
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To: MindBender26

Thanks for the heads up. The storm could sit and dump rain for days or get picked up by the Jet stream and go right through northern Florida per the weather channel. They just don’t know. They had figured the high would pick up the storm and bring it to TX but it never did. Meanwhile it is nonstop rain. Threat of tornadoes till 4am. Great!


42 posted on 06/24/2012 5:16:26 PM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: MindBender26

hey I am in gulf shores alabama, big waves


43 posted on 06/24/2012 5:48:26 PM PDT by yldstrk ( My heroes have always been cowboys)
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To: MindBender26; Joe Brower

These Gulf originating tropical storms are enough to drive you to drink. MAKE UP YOUR MIND ALREADY!


44 posted on 06/24/2012 5:53:45 PM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: basil

I agree, I hope Tejas gets drenched with 5-10 inches. We have all we need here in FL!


45 posted on 06/24/2012 6:00:31 PM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Matchett-PI; Islander7; mickie; flaglady47; seenenuf; seekthetruth; JulieRNR21
Tornado warnings finally called off in northern Pasco County.....but still in effect in Spring Hill/Homossassa Springs area directly north of me (Hernando County) for the next half-hour.

Still pouring rain where I'm located and it's certain I'll awake to extensive coastal flooding damage tomorrow morning.

But for now, things are getting calmer around me as the wind abates somewhat.

I'm just happy and relieved that the electric didn't go out! It generally does during these sustained high-wind storms.

Leni

46 posted on 06/24/2012 6:16:00 PM PDT by MinuteGal
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To: MindBender26

Not to be a floatie in the punchbowl...but where is NautiNurse? Doesn’t she usually do the TS/Hurricane threads?


47 posted on 06/24/2012 6:32:51 PM PDT by hoagy62 ("Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered..."-Thomas Paine. 1776)
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To: hoagy62

Not to be a floatie in the punchbowl...but where is NautiNurse?


Take a look at her posting history and you’ll find she hasn’t been around FR much lately. I don’t know the reasons.

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:nautinurse/index?brevity=full;tab=comments


48 posted on 06/24/2012 6:40:41 PM PDT by deport
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To: MindBender26

49 posted on 06/24/2012 6:43:43 PM PDT by deport
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To: Traveler59

Here on the eastern side of Pensacola Bay, it has been a cool day and not a drop of rain yet.


50 posted on 06/24/2012 7:19:26 PM PDT by jch10 (Fail to the Chief!)
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