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Could New Hampshire decide the election?
New York Times ^ | 30 June 2012 | Election staff analysis

Posted on 06/30/2012 4:46:27 PM PDT by Vigilanteman

The New York Times has updated their electoral map, moving Wisconsin and Pennsylvania into the toss-up category.

Unlike the Huffington Post which shows Obama has 254 electoral votes locked down, the Times shows him with just 185 plus 32 leaning for a total of 217. He needs 53 among the toss-up states to put him over 270, still less than Romney, who needs 64 with solid states and leaners included.

I've therefore listed the 9 states and electoral votes of each in the toss-up category in order of likelihood to vote GOP:

  1. Virginia - 13
  2. Florida - 29
  3. Ohio - 18
  4. New Hampshire - 4
  5. Iowa - 6
  6. Nevada - 6
  7. Colorado - 9
  8. Pennsylvania - 20
  9. Wisconsin - 10

(Excerpt) Read more at elections.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire
KEYWORDS: 2012; election; obama; romney
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Feel free to debate the order of the 9 toss-ups, but I consider it pretty solid based on statewide polls and demographic changes, especially a surge in the illegal alien friendly Hispanic demographic in Colorado and Nevada since 2008.

If you add from the bottom up for Obama or the top down for Romney, the one state they both need is New Hampshire to cross the 270 electoral vote finish line. Obama doesn't need a single state above it. Romney doesn't need a single state below it.

Of course, if the election is a blow-out either way, nobody will need New Hampshire either way. But if it is as razor-thin as some expect, New Hampshire's four electoral votes is the difference between victory and defeat.

1 posted on 06/30/2012 4:46:34 PM PDT by Vigilanteman
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To: Vigilanteman
THIS is what will control the election:



2 posted on 06/30/2012 4:49:55 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Vigilanteman

Well, how does NH look?


3 posted on 06/30/2012 4:52:24 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: Vigilanteman

The ‘RATS have already signed up “thousands” of “lawyers” to fight against the voters. I expect Roberts and Barry’s “Supreme Court” to decide this one. Ain’t lookin’ good for our side.


4 posted on 06/30/2012 4:52:59 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dude! Where's my Constitution?!)
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To: Vigilanteman

Solid work, Vigilanteman.

Thanks.


5 posted on 06/30/2012 4:54:50 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Michigan should be in the list.


6 posted on 06/30/2012 4:55:47 PM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Vigilanteman

How about NC, they went Obama last time, should go back to the GOP.


7 posted on 06/30/2012 4:56:37 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Diogenesis
I am sure you will be very happy if Obama is reelected.

You have made your point.

8 posted on 06/30/2012 4:57:24 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Vigilanteman

soetoro makes donor calls from air force one [desperate!]...
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/06/30/exclusive-president-obama-asks-campaign-donors-to-send-him-more-money.html


9 posted on 06/30/2012 4:57:47 PM PDT by biggredd1
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To: Vigilanteman

It is not going to be even close.


10 posted on 06/30/2012 5:00:23 PM PDT by mountainlion (I am voting for Sarah after getting screwed again by the DC Thugs.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Florida/Ohio will go GOP before Virginia. Huge influx of New Englanders in Northern VA is changing the state. It went easily for Obama in 08 and I’d only imagine the problem has gotten worse since then.


11 posted on 06/30/2012 5:00:37 PM PDT by PAConservative1
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To: SharpRightTurn
You're welcome. I have to give begrudging credit to the New York Times in at least being realistic with their analysis of the electoral map.

You won't see that with a lot of the liberal media. That, notwithstanding, changes in events from now until November could put some of the leaners into play like Michigan or even Minnesota.

What the Times analysts are saying is that if the election were held tomorrow, the outcome would be determined in these nine states. I've taken their fairly solid work just one step further and ranked the nine states.

Scary to think that it could all come down to New Hampshire, isn't it?

12 posted on 06/30/2012 5:03:49 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: PAConservative1

“Florida/Ohio will go GOP before Virginia.”

I agree. The VP pick should be Bob McDonnell.


13 posted on 06/30/2012 5:06:17 PM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Vigilanteman

We just got Voter ID up here, and a student ID cannot be used. Cutting out the college students and voters busing in from MA should tip it to Romney.


14 posted on 06/30/2012 5:07:23 PM PDT by MAexile (Bats left, votes right)
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To: fortheDeclaration; Al B.; SolidWood; Leisler; greyfoxx39; Tennessee Nana; EternalVigilance; ...
Apparently not.


15 posted on 06/30/2012 5:12:04 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: PAConservative1
To your credit, I seriously considered ranking Virginia third, after Florida and Ohio. As you correctly pointed out, Obama had a bigger margin of victory in Virginia (6.3%) than either Florida (2.8%) or Ohio (4.6%).

In the end, however, I weighted Virginia higher based less on historical voting history in presidential elections, but the solid GOP win in the last governor's race, the popularity of the GOP governor in Virginia as compared to his counterparts in Ohio and Florida and how that translates into better organization and votes.

Yours is really the type of informed comment which I welcome on this thread versus the usual cut and paste garbage which gives the impression that the whiners and bed wetters outnumber the thinkers and analyzers.

16 posted on 06/30/2012 5:18:01 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Diogenesis; fortheDeclaration

He has become a total bore on FR

Broken record - Stand to the side, Di, while the adults VOTE obama out of office


17 posted on 06/30/2012 5:21:53 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: MAexile

I take it that you are in New Hampshire, correct? If so, I would welcome any details which you could add, including recent state polling data.


18 posted on 06/30/2012 5:21:53 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: fortheDeclaration

Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.


19 posted on 06/30/2012 5:23:25 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: BarnacleCenturion

Agreed. McDonnell is very conservative and from what may be the most important state, but he’s not a bombshell which Romney is trying to avoid (he doesn’t want the VP to overshadow him, LOL).


20 posted on 06/30/2012 5:27:54 PM PDT by PAConservative1
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