Russia's Support for Assad Will Backfire

wsj.com ^ | July 12, 2012 | INNA LAZAREVA

[Tailgunner Joe]

The common explanation for why Moscow continues to back the Assad regime is that it is acting to protect its security and economic interests. While President Vladimir Putin may well believe this to be the case, his government's continued support for Bashar Assad represents at best a miscalculation—and at worst an irreversible diplomatic disaster. Russia's choices are set to backfire against its own key assets in the region.

If Assad continues to cling to power, Russia will be left with a business partner unable to trade or fulfill contracts. Syria's economy is already in tatters after 16 months of conflict, and some of its trade deals with Russia are likely to be frozen while the civil war rages on.

There will be an even higher economic price to pay vis-à-vis Gulf nations. Saudi Arabia—the world's largest crude-oil exporter, a regional heavyweight, and a potentially lucrative market for Russia—now seems to be locking horns with Moscow over the latter's endorsement of Damascus. The Kingdom, which recently indicated its plans to fund Syria's rebel army, humiliated Russia in March by canceling a scheduled meeting between Moscow and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

[Tailgunner Joe]

Russia will abandon Assad like they did Kadaffy, and for the same reasons. Syria will cause Russia more trouble than it's worth.

[cripplecreek]

Support for anyone there will backfire.

[Navy Patriot]

I would suspect that while Russia AND China AND at least three temporary members of the Security Council hold and continue to exercise the veto, the UN and International Law will have to accept the Assad government as the only legal and legitimate government of Syria. Any other nation supporting the rebellion is in violation of both those bodies of law and thus commits an act of war.

The Saudi camel jockeys have a surprise coming if they cross Russia and commit an act of war in Syria.

Russia would like nothing more than putting a serious uncooperative competitor's oil fields out of production while securing the Muslime portion of the Med oil and gas.

[Sudetenland]

"Russia's Support for Assad Will Backfire"

I think not. I think Putin is far smarter than Obama-Hilary. He was right when he took Obama to the tool shed over our incoherent ME policies and the fact that in Syria, as in Libya and Egypt, we don't know who the opposition is.

Like in Egypt, we may rid Syria of Assad only to get some radical Muslim elected.

As we should have done over the entire "Arab Spring," we need to keep our noses out of it.

[onona]

Took the words right out of my mouth.

Money Pit, Life Pit, Blood Pit.

Nothing good comes out of that region.

[bravo whiskey]

like libya whatever replaces assad will be worse than assad. put a 10’ wall around the country, drop in arms and ammo, wait 4 months and fill it with water.

[dfwgator]

There are no permanent allies, only permanent interests.

[cripplecreek]

Water hell, fill it with concrete.

[justa-hairyape]

They have been saying this for a few months now. No way Russia will abandon 10’s of thousands of Russians living in Syria. When they start mass evacuations, then maybe this pipe dream will finally have some truth.

[musicman]

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[Kenny Bunk]

Ping

[Tailgunner Joe]

Russia has invited the rebels to Moscow to help them iron out all of their differences. The Syrian rebels may be terrorists to Assad, but to Russia they are freedom fighters, just like HAMAS. Assad’s day’s are numbered.

[justa-hairyape]

Which rebels ? There are 4 to 5 groups. And the main one that is not Islamic is not even recognized by Hillary or NATO.

[Tailgunner Joe]

Syria's opposition appeals for Russian support - July 11, 2012 - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is holding talks with Abdulbaset Sayda, head of the Syrian National Council. Mr Lavrov's deputy said Russia wanted to move the opposition "towards realistic and constructive positions".

Mr Lavrov said he welcomed the opportunity to have direct discussions with opposition figures "at this crucial time for Syria...."

Russia wanted to understand if there was a "prospect" of the deeply divided opposition factions uniting and creating a platform for dialogue with the government, he added. Earlier, Mr Lavrov's deputy, Mikhail Bogdanov, said he would "try to move the Syrian opposition figures towards realistic and constructive positions that can help end the bloodshed".

Syrian Kurdish opposition groups unite - July 12, 2012 - Syria's two main Kurdish opposition blocs said on Wednesday they would unite under one banner against embattled President Bashar al-Assad, following talks in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region.

The Kurdish National Council, an umbrella group of around a dozen parties, and the Western Kurdistan People's Council together announced the formation of the Supreme Kurdish Council, after a meeting that also included Iraq's Kurdish regional president Massud Barzani.

"We announce this good news to our Kurdish people in Syria and Kurdistan," they said in a statement issued Wednesday evening. "We have built the Kurdish house to unify our struggle between political factions."

Kurdish activist Abdel Basset Sayda was named on June 10 to lead the SNC, partly in a bid to gain the confidence of Syria's minorities.

SNC chief: Hezbollah should get ready for post-Assad period - June 21, 2012 - Leader of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) Abdel Basset Sayda said Thursday that Lebanon’s Shia group Hezbollah should gear up for the post President Bashar al-Assad period in Syria.

“[Hezbollah] needs to get ready for the period that follows the departure of this [Syrian] regime,” Sayda told Voice of Lebanon (100.5) radio station.

Furthermore, Sayda told Voice of Lebanon that Christians were “part of our identity and we are proud of them.”

Putin: Syrians Should Be 'Forced' to Start Talks - July 9, 2012 - Russian President Vladimir Putin says that the Syrian government and opposition groups should be "forced" to start a dialogue. He spoke Monday, the same day a Syrian opposition leader, Michel Kilo, met with Russia's foreign minister.

Kilo, who heads the Democratic Forum opposition group, said that he hopes Russia will play a positive role in "finding a peaceful solution to our crisis."

Kilo, a Christian, left Syria for France soon after his first arrest in the early 1980s. He returned to Syria in 1991, and was arrested again in 2006 and jailed for three years after signing the Beirut-Damascus Declaration, urging Syria to recognize Lebanon's independence. He was released in 2009. Kilo led a delegation of Syrian opposition representatives from the Democratic Forum group at talks with Lavrov on Monday. - rian.ru

[justa-hairyape]

Nothing wrong with that. Might as well try to find a peaceful solution. No one should want war. Cannot for the life of me see what DC’s national interests are in Syria.

[freedomfiter2]

Letting the Islamofascists take over would also backfire.

[freedomfiter2]

Cannot for the life of me see what DC’s national interests are in Syria.

The Assad government provides a little safety for the Christians in Syria. That can not be tolerated.

[katana]

Syria is a much more strategically important puzzle piece than Libya ever was. That being said, it is possible they may back off and let Assad hang, but I doubt it. What they understand that somehow escapes American policy makers is that when you have and then abandon a long time partner and client, no matter how sorry you are to be associated with them, it reverberates and shows you are not reliable to other existing and potential partners.

The Russians (and Soviets) and the Baath Party / Assad family / Alawi tribe run Syrian government have been in bed together for over fifty years now. And with Obama and the EU (and Russia's ancient enemy the Turks) lining up with the Muslim Brotherhood opposition all the old Cold War instincts are kicking in. I think we are in for a very dangerous patch that could lead to 1914 style miscalculations.

[justa-hairyape]

I think we are in for a very dangerous patch that could lead to 1914 style miscalculations.

The obvious miscalculation is why would anyone in their right mind use Islamic Terrorist to overthrow a government with the largest stockpile of Chemical WMD in the world ? It is absurd to say the least. DC and NATO have lost their minds. They deserve the trap the Russian bear is setting.