Skip to comments.Analysts Give Cruz The Edge For Tonight's Debate
Posted on 07/17/2012 1:37:13 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The run-off election between Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst is July 31st.
Conventional wisdom says whoever wins that race will also win in November and be the state's next U.S. Senator.
Joe Householder, with Purple Strategies, is quick to point out he's a Democrat. But as a political strategist he says this run-off is working in Cruz's favor.
"Run-offs, especially on the Republican side, are the elections that usually draw people, the kind of folks who I like to say drive by the school every Saturday to make sure there's not an election. And those are the folks that Ted Cruz is counting on."
Householder says Cruz has been effective at turning this race into a cause for tea party voters, while Dewhurst hasn't been able to tap into that same enthusiasm.
Bill Miller is a long time political analyst in Austin. He agrees that Cruz has more momentum going into tonight's debate and calls the race remarkable and surprising.
"I think that Dewhurst...if the primaries had been held in March with a normal turnout, he would have run without a run-off. But that's not what happened. So you know right now Ted Cruz looks like he might be our next senator and no one saw it coming, least of all David Dewhurst."
Both analysts say they expect tonight's debate to be aggressive and heated, with Dewhurst on the attack against Cruz.
The candidates will debate in Dallas tonight at 7pm. You can hear that debate live here on KUHF.
Dewhurst, Cruz square off tonight at 7 p.m. on KHOU 11 - by Brad Watson / WFAA - khou.com
DALLAS -- Tuesday night is your last chance to see Republican U.S. Senate candidates David Dewhurst and Ted Cruz square off.
They will be in the WFAA studios in Dallas Tuesday night at 7 p.m. for the Belo Debate, which will be broadcast statewide. You can watch it live on KHOU 11 or on www.khou.com.
The Cruz-Dewhurst face-off comes less than a week before early voters make their choices offering little time for either candidate to recover from any misstep.
This is a a close race. Dewhurst got the most votes in the May 29 primary, beating Cruz by double digits, 45 to 34 percent.
But the runoff turnout will likely be smaller, and surveys of likely voters last week showed more of them favor Cruz, and he now appears to be the front-runner."....
.....”This fierce, multi-million race for Texas’ first open U.S. Senate seat in a decade has become increasingly nasty, touching on everything from honesty to hypocrisy. Political observers expect the winner of the Republican primary to win the November race, since Democrats haven’t won a statewide office in Texas in nearly 20 years.
In the midst of a slew of negative advertising on both sides, two recent telephone polls show Cruz leading Dewhurst - one by Public Policy Polling that shows Cruz with 49 percent to Dewhurst’s 44 percent and one by Citizens United Political Victory Fund that puts Cruz at 48 percent to Dewhurst’s 38 percent.”.....
I think that Dew-worst is running a winning campaign for TED CRUZ.
Keep up the great work, Lt. Governor!
So exciting. GO TED!
bump 4 laytah
I will be voting for Cruz in the run-off. I agree that the negative ads have probably helped Cruz; particularly the one where they cut Cruz off in mid-sentence. Dewhurst's original ad was quite good-the one that went "some people say it takes courage to cut spending. I disagree. Courage is what my dad (WW2 bomber crewman) had. We just need to do what's right".
He stopped running that one and went with the "Cruz is a tool of the Chi-coms" strategy. I hope Cruz cleans his clock.
Can’t wait to vote for Ted. We are sick of Dewhurst calls here. Husband already voted by mail since he can’t walk very far. Rest of us vote July 31.
Thanks Cincinatus’ Wife.
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Looks like the RINOs think they have the means to assure this never happens again: Early primaries, open primaries if necessary.
Can you move this Texas Senate Debate(Cruz vs. Dewhurst) to Breaking News for the Live Thread?
Thanks. Should be a good debate.
I think Ted’s doing a good job.
I think this format with the in your face interrupting moderators helps Dewhurst more than the previous debate.
Cruz is going to the Constitution for the illegal immigration fight. Bravo!
Ted needs to take the cost of securing the border to the Fed.
Desperate Dave must not prevail! Rhino Alert!
I wish both of them would beat up on the Fed for our immigration woes.
Dewhurst is very weaselly.
Ted has Nerves of Steel.
I disagree with him on the fence, though it doesn’t matter as it will never happen.
which include the following:
Texas businesses will have a choice of paying either a low-rate revised franchise tax or a payroll tax.
This may be a bit provacative...but instead of a fence, just use the border as a nuclear fuel waste dump...solves a couple problems.
Dewhurst would make a good Senator-—as is! A squish Pubbie-— Ted’s a fighter which we need in the Senate to shake it up some.
Dewhurst sure acts smarmy, but I wish Conservatives would stop attacking people on making money.
Make the Feds enforce the Border!
And stop forcing Texans to bear the weight of their lack of will to do THEIR job!
Idealist! What does the Fed do well? (other than the Military)
When your problem is in your back yard...you take the bull on by the horns!
He is a backroom dealer and he doesn’t look real comfortable when you ask him specific in public.
Now Ted doesn’t understand military budget cuts.
When they make 500 billions in cuts it will go this way:
The House will start out in earnest to cut waste.
Someone will say. “hey, why do we have these tank columns in the EU? WWII is over”
The the giy whi runs that wil say “Hey! don’t cit my budget! look at the airforce waste!”
The wing commander will blame the Navy for waste and the Senators will cut everybody equally across the board without regard to national Security.
That’s the dance.
That was a pretty good debate.
We can't. The Fed has us roped and tied, as they have the power and they have the responsibility for the border.
We have our troubles because they won't allow us to do the job.
Ted did great. David looked a bit on the evasive side.
I voting Ted, no question.
BTW, Ted’s response to David’s “China” attack adds was perfect.
Well, there is supposed to be an “am” in that thar second line...
Ted seems pretty unflappable, and has a solid constitutional understanding.
Thanks for letting us use your thread for the debate.
Cyall next week in the early polls.
Love this image, NYT.
I say Dewie just got his lunch chewed up by Ted and spit back in his Rino face. YAY TED!
Personally I’d prefer to keep nuclear waste well away from the Rio Grande.
Cruz winning? Works for me!
Go Big Money!
That's true. That line choked me up the first time I heard him say it. I heard David talk at a school event one year, and I really liked him. I think he would be an honorable senator, but worse than Cornyn-beans for moving any of our agenda forward. And these negative attacks have cost him my respect. I'm all in for the Cruz Missile!
Naw, we’d LIKE early primaries. What happened was a feral judge struck down our duly appointed cogressional districk maps and they delayed our primary by three months getting it straightened out, guaranteeing we had no say in the presidential nominee, but it screwed them when it came to the senate race.
Cruz kicked 'Dirty' Dewhurst's ass!
I watched it.
Cruz can take our message effectively to the Senate.