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Obama leads Romney in three key swing states (Another BS CBS Poll)
CBS ^ | 8/1/2012 | Brian Montopoli

Posted on 08/01/2012 3:59:01 AM PDT by tobyhill

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida - and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania - according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates
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1 posted on 08/01/2012 3:59:05 AM PDT by tobyhill
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To: All

“The error for subgroups may be higher.”


2 posted on 08/01/2012 4:01:07 AM PDT by tobyhill (Defund Obamacare Now)
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To: tobyhill

I have a harder time believing the Florida numbers than I do for Pennsylvania. PA breaks my heart every Presidential election. Florida, though? I’d be very surprised if this poll is consistent with what others are showing.

Dunno ‘bout Ohio one way or the other.


3 posted on 08/01/2012 4:03:54 AM PDT by DemforBush
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To: tobyhill

Let me guess... “The poll sampled 1,039 random people in line at the welfare office.”


4 posted on 08/01/2012 4:06:33 AM PDT by IamConservative (Well done is better than well said. - Ben Franklin)
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To: tobyhill

Even if those numbers are close to right (I doubt it) things will shift towards Romney as we head to election day.

I doubt he’ll take Pennsylvania, but I think Ohio and Florida will break for him.


5 posted on 08/01/2012 4:07:48 AM PDT by PreciousLiberty (Pray for America!!!)
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To: tobyhill; DemforBush; IamConservative; LS
the poll was done by Quinnipiac. I find it difficult to believe that 0bama is doing well in Ohio yet struggling in the rest of the Great Lakes and Connecticut
6 posted on 08/01/2012 4:09:44 AM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: DemforBush
It's just more oversampling of Rats and then the oversampling of “subgroups”.

This is the norm for the Lame Stream Media, keep pumping up Obama then when the numbers don't jive in the end, claim the GOP stole it.

7 posted on 08/01/2012 4:09:49 AM PDT by tobyhill (Defund Obamacare Now)
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To: tobyhill

Unfortunately, that swoon factor is still very much alive among women. Effing amazing...

And how `bout those voters in PA... while Obama openly and happily dismantles their industries, there they are, like a battered but devoted wife, standing (or more accurately kneeling) by their man. `Til death do you part, I guess....


8 posted on 08/01/2012 4:11:42 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: tobyhill
To bad we didn't have a conservative. We would win this election. Now we don't even know for sure if we are going to win. It will come down to the wire with a weak incumbent. How dumb of the Republicans. Oh well. Maybe they will learn in time for 2016....although I doubt it.
9 posted on 08/01/2012 4:12:24 AM PDT by napscoordinator (GO TO CHIC-FIL-A 1 AUGUST FOR BREAKFAST, LUNCH OR DINNER (OR ALL))
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To: tobyhill

Party identification (weighted)
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or
what?
FL OH PA
Republican 27% 27% 32%
Democrat 36 35 38
Independent 32 32 26
Other 4 4 3
DK/NA 1 1 1


10 posted on 08/01/2012 4:12:40 AM PDT by mazda77 ("Defeating the Totalitarian Lie" By: Hilmar von Campe. Everybody should read it.)
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To: napscoordinator

Please take your meds. Look at the poll. The polled +9 more Dems than Republicans.


11 posted on 08/01/2012 4:15:13 AM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: tobyhill

6 points in Florida is an outright lie.
Nothing has to “break” for Romney here, he is going to take Florida by a large margin.

I seriously believe that the Dems know that and are just trying to get Mitt to panic & make a mistake.

This isn’t “news,” it is propaganda


12 posted on 08/01/2012 4:16:58 AM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: napscoordinator

I disagree. America isn`t a conservative country anymore. Conservative electorates don`t put the likes of Obama in the White House.


13 posted on 08/01/2012 4:18:17 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: Perdogg

So what. Look I know you love Romney. You made that clear. We would not be in this mess without you types. If we had a conservative, we would not even have Ohio in question. Ohio is in question on every poll not just this one. Enjoy your Romney love. I find it tragic that you are slobbering over him. Kinda gross.


14 posted on 08/01/2012 4:19:07 AM PDT by napscoordinator (GO TO CHIC-FIL-A 1 AUGUST FOR BREAKFAST, LUNCH OR DINNER (OR ALL))
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To: Perdogg

Then, what are the real spreads? Ohio and Pennsylvania are pretty close to +9 dem, are they not?


15 posted on 08/01/2012 4:22:56 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: tobyhill
It's just more oversampling of Rats...

From p.8 of the poll:

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

Florida R-27 D-36 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+9)

Ohio R-27 D-35 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+8)

Pennsylvania R-32 D-38 I-26 Other-3 DK/NA-1 (D+6)

16 posted on 08/01/2012 4:24:18 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (How much better off would we be if these bastards would just leave us alone?)
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To: mazda77
This proves Obama is really in trouble if he's only a couple points up based on this skewed poll.
17 posted on 08/01/2012 4:25:22 AM PDT by tobyhill (Defund Obamacare Now)
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To: tobyhill

If Romney is leading in the elderly vote in Fl., Obama is toast.


18 posted on 08/01/2012 4:27:49 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Sounds like some PA repubs are enamored with 0bama.


19 posted on 08/01/2012 4:27:55 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: ScottinVA
Ohio's about a 3%+ for the Rats, Pennsylvania is about 6%+. The key for Obama in those states is turnout which I don't see it happening. Florida is an outright lie in this poll.
20 posted on 08/01/2012 4:30:44 AM PDT by tobyhill (Defund Obamacare Now)
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To: ScottinVA

It might be in PA, but not in OH.


21 posted on 08/01/2012 4:31:44 AM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: tobyhill

Folks...Its See BS...and all their polling will show Saten in the lead.


22 posted on 08/01/2012 4:32:44 AM PDT by ICE-FLYER (God bless and keep the United States of America)
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To: napscoordinator
Too bad we didn't have a conservative. We would win this election. Now we don't even know for sure if we are going to win. It will come down to the wire with a weak incumbent. How dumb of the Republicans. Oh well. Maybe they will learn in time for 2016....although I doubt it.

Now see, I agree with that! Except I think it will be a pretty strong win in spite of our weaker candidate.

23 posted on 08/01/2012 4:38:33 AM PDT by Principled (Vote Romney to stop Obama. Vote for conservative Reps and Senators to stop Romney. [ZET 7/30/12])
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To: Palmetto Patriot

And yet the dolts in the media fall all over themselves to report that their messiah is ahead.

Disgraceful.


24 posted on 08/01/2012 4:40:36 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: tobyhill; Allegra; big'ol_freeper; Lil'freeper; TrueKnightGalahad; blackie; Cincinatus' Wife; ...
Also, Romney’s Poland trip only purpose... was to gin up white voters.

As opposed to The Obamation going to the NAACP Convention... to gin up black votes, eh, Cokie?

That is typical, Bender, of all your Right-Wings guys who have been calling me... a cold, arrogant, ultra-liberal bitch all these years--

Well, Cokie, when you got it dead-solid right... you don't need to change your message!

25 posted on 08/01/2012 4:44:15 AM PDT by Bender2 ("I've got a twisted sense of humor, and everything amuses me." RAH Beyond this Horizon)
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To: ScottinVA

I am a PA voter and the problem, which has been stated many times, is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Its difficult to overcome those two Dem strongholds. Hopefully they may stay home this time since the shine is wearing off.


26 posted on 08/01/2012 4:45:42 AM PDT by depenzz (As long as there are tests, there will be prayer in public schools.)
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To: napscoordinator
I don't know why you are frothing. OH is not hugely conservative. It is REPUBLICAN. It elected Taft, twice. The middle of OH is quite moderate. No one knows how Romney will do, but I think we'll be fine here in OH.

But you should get a clue; Romney IS the nominee, Palin wouldn't even run, nd Newt got creamed in the OH GOP primary.

27 posted on 08/01/2012 4:48:00 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: ScottinVA

Your image of the women voting for Obama is a bit romantic. Picture a fat lazy ignorant person who has never worked or ocassionaly holds a job just to requalify for welfare, 3 kids with 3 men, some drug use. Now you have the picture.


28 posted on 08/01/2012 4:49:07 AM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: napscoordinator

IMHO, we don’t have until 2016.


29 posted on 08/01/2012 4:50:20 AM PDT by depenzz (As long as there are tests, there will be prayer in public schools.)
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To: mazda77; tobyhill

Here are the registered voter stats for Florida as of June 2012: GOP - 36%; RAT - 40%; IND - 21%, OTHER - 3%.

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/registration.asp


30 posted on 08/01/2012 4:50:29 AM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: Palmetto Patriot

I think when the select who to call, the use 08 exit polls-—not the same electorate since 09.


31 posted on 08/01/2012 4:50:36 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: tobyhill

2008 Results (Actual Voters):

FL D +2.8%
OH D +4%
PA D +10.4%


32 posted on 08/01/2012 4:51:55 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (How much better off would we be if these bastards would just leave us alone?)
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To: tobyhill

You Go obama! You’re doing just great! CBS says so! No need to worry...

No need for donations from “the poor”

They don’t even need to go vote...! you got it in the bag!


33 posted on 08/01/2012 4:51:55 AM PDT by Mr. K ("The spread of evil is the symptom of a vacuum [of good]")
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To: ScottinVA

“Unfortunately, that swoon factor is still very much alive among women. Effing amazing...”
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

As I grow older I am amazed at how my respect for the understanding possessed by the founders of this nation grows and grows. Need I say more?


34 posted on 08/01/2012 4:53:12 AM PDT by RipSawyer (Free healthcare is worth FAR LESS than it costs.)
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To: PreciousLiberty

Obama’s support was MAXED OUT last election, he got everyone he could possibly get.

He has no where to go but down.

And now that people see what he is, I dont think anyone who DID NOT vote for him last time is gonna say “Hey-he’s done all right”

But a lot of people who DID vote for him are saying “ho-lee crab- what the heck did I do”


35 posted on 08/01/2012 4:54:57 AM PDT by Mr. K ("The spread of evil is the symptom of a vacuum [of good]")
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To: tobyhill

Not surprising.

People WILL LIE to the poll takers so as NOT to be accused of the “r” word. What they do in the privacy of the voting booth will be different.


36 posted on 08/01/2012 5:03:24 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: tobyhill

Here’s how Gallup has the party id in FL and OH.

Ohio D +1.5
Florida D +2

Yet both polls have D +8 or so.


37 posted on 08/01/2012 5:04:08 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: tobyhill
Romney leads by seven points among Ohio whites

Huh! How is Romney up 7 with whites and down 6 overall?

It would be statistically impossible unless a vast majority of Ohio is minority.
38 posted on 08/01/2012 5:06:43 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: DemforBush
Dunno ‘bout Ohio one way or the other.

I'm in Ohio now - visiting in-laws. The inlaws have been hard core Dems for ever and no way in hell they would vote for Obama this time around. It seems to be fairly wide-spread as a sentiment, so i have hope...

39 posted on 08/01/2012 5:13:13 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: Labyrinthos; All

The one important fact most are missing is that those polled were asked how they identified themselves. So as compared to the actual registrations, there is no way to verify their stated affiliation.


40 posted on 08/01/2012 5:14:44 AM PDT by mazda77 ("Defeating the Totalitarian Lie" By: Hilmar von Campe. Everybody should read it.)
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To: ScottinVA

“Sounds like some PA repubs are enamored with 0bama.”

I guess there are a lot anti-Romney Freepers in PA.


41 posted on 08/01/2012 5:15:50 AM PDT by Londo Molari
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To: Mr. K
He has no where to go but down.

Comparing this poll to the 2008 results:

Florida 2008 - D+2.8, Poll - D+9

Ohio 2008 - D+4, Poll - D+8

Pennsylvania 2008 - D+10.4, Poll - D+6

42 posted on 08/01/2012 5:20:09 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (How much better off would we be if these bastards would just leave us alone?)
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To: tobyhill

Lemme guess, those three states are the 55-57th states?


43 posted on 08/01/2012 5:24:06 AM PDT by bgill
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To: tobyhill
Obama leads by 22 among independents in PA

In 2008, during the Obama Hope/Change fever, Obama won independents in PA by 13 points. And 4 years later (after an economic train wreck) he's almost doubled the support?

Right!
44 posted on 08/01/2012 5:24:37 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: tobyhill
(1) Take it for what it's worth. Polling is art, not science. That's why we bother to vote,and don't just say, "Oh, Mr. X is ahead in the poll...he wins!"
What would interest me more is polls shifting when conducted in identical fashion - and even at that "identical" is only a guess.

(2) The campaign has barely begun. In about a month the cannon balls will really be flying. Sadly, there are a lot of ignorant voters - not to mention the illegal ones that Demonrats will protect come hell or high water. I'm afraid a lot hinges on the "debates", because that will be many sheep's first unfiltered look at the candidates.

(3) I believe Romney will win the popular vote. Remember when SoreLoserman won the popular vote, but lost in the Electoral College? All kinds of talk in the Demonrat Media about how EC was a relic that we need to do away with it. (Truth is, it is an important check on localized election corruption.) If the tables are turned in this election, how much do you want to bet there is nary a peep? Any takers?

45 posted on 08/01/2012 5:28:13 AM PDT by Nevermore (...just a typical cracker, clinging to my Constitutional rights...)
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To: PreciousLiberty
Ohio is moving towards obama... It moved Monday to “lean obama”... friends there say Ohio loves obama... they do not understand it either.

LLS

46 posted on 08/01/2012 5:31:43 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: Perdogg

Unfortunately all of those states have considerably more people registered as democrats. I don’t think +9 for democrats is an inaccurate sampling.

Even Oklahoma has more people registered as democrats than republicans.

This country is dead. We might as well end the charade, join the EU and be done with it.


47 posted on 08/01/2012 5:32:25 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: Palmetto Patriot

The bias in this poll is confirmed by looking at the Senate polling. Compared to every other major poll, the Democratic Senatorial Candidates poll 7-8% higher in this skewed poll.


48 posted on 08/01/2012 5:33:11 AM PDT by Murp (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: Nevermore
Jerry Brown: California's Gov Signs Bill Giving State's Electoral Votes To National Popular Vote Winner

Wouldn't that be a kicker. Romney loses key swing states, but then California hands its 55 EVs to Romney for the win. LOL!
49 posted on 08/01/2012 5:34:19 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: LS

But you should get a clue; Romney IS the nominee

Really? You tell me to get a clue and you know full well that we have not had the convention yet. Now who needs to get a clue? I am hoping that some patriots will kick Romney to the curb and put someone conservative in there so we don’t have this “down to the wire” type election where it will be close and either one may win.


50 posted on 08/01/2012 5:34:46 AM PDT by napscoordinator (GO TO CHIC-FIL-A 1 AUGUST FOR BREAKFAST, LUNCH OR DINNER (OR ALL))
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