Skip to comments.Obama leads Romney in three key swing states (Another BS CBS Poll)
Posted on 08/01/2012 3:59:01 AM PDT by tobyhill
President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida - and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania - according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.
The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.
Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.
In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
“The error for subgroups may be higher.”
I have a harder time believing the Florida numbers than I do for Pennsylvania. PA breaks my heart every Presidential election. Florida, though? I’d be very surprised if this poll is consistent with what others are showing.
Dunno ‘bout Ohio one way or the other.
Let me guess... “The poll sampled 1,039 random people in line at the welfare office.”
Even if those numbers are close to right (I doubt it) things will shift towards Romney as we head to election day.
I doubt he’ll take Pennsylvania, but I think Ohio and Florida will break for him.
This is the norm for the Lame Stream Media, keep pumping up Obama then when the numbers don't jive in the end, claim the GOP stole it.
Unfortunately, that swoon factor is still very much alive among women. Effing amazing...
And how `bout those voters in PA... while Obama openly and happily dismantles their industries, there they are, like a battered but devoted wife, standing (or more accurately kneeling) by their man. `Til death do you part, I guess....
Party identification (weighted)
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or
FL OH PA
Republican 27% 27% 32%
Democrat 36 35 38
Independent 32 32 26
Other 4 4 3
DK/NA 1 1 1
Please take your meds. Look at the poll. The polled +9 more Dems than Republicans.
6 points in Florida is an outright lie.
Nothing has to “break” for Romney here, he is going to take Florida by a large margin.
I seriously believe that the Dems know that and are just trying to get Mitt to panic & make a mistake.
This isn’t “news,” it is propaganda
I disagree. America isn`t a conservative country anymore. Conservative electorates don`t put the likes of Obama in the White House.
So what. Look I know you love Romney. You made that clear. We would not be in this mess without you types. If we had a conservative, we would not even have Ohio in question. Ohio is in question on every poll not just this one. Enjoy your Romney love. I find it tragic that you are slobbering over him. Kinda gross.
Then, what are the real spreads? Ohio and Pennsylvania are pretty close to +9 dem, are they not?
From p.8 of the poll:
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?
Florida R-27 D-36 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+9)
Ohio R-27 D-35 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+8)
Pennsylvania R-32 D-38 I-26 Other-3 DK/NA-1 (D+6)
If Romney is leading in the elderly vote in Fl., Obama is toast.
Sounds like some PA repubs are enamored with 0bama.
It might be in PA, but not in OH.
Folks...Its See BS...and all their polling will show Saten in the lead.
Now see, I agree with that! Except I think it will be a pretty strong win in spite of our weaker candidate.
And yet the dolts in the media fall all over themselves to report that their messiah is ahead.
As opposed to The Obamation going to the NAACP Convention... to gin up black votes, eh, Cokie?
That is typical, Bender, of all your Right-Wings guys who have been calling me... a cold, arrogant, ultra-liberal bitch all these years--
Well, Cokie, when you got it dead-solid right... you don't need to change your message!
I am a PA voter and the problem, which has been stated many times, is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Its difficult to overcome those two Dem strongholds. Hopefully they may stay home this time since the shine is wearing off.
But you should get a clue; Romney IS the nominee, Palin wouldn't even run, nd Newt got creamed in the OH GOP primary.
Your image of the women voting for Obama is a bit romantic. Picture a fat lazy ignorant person who has never worked or ocassionaly holds a job just to requalify for welfare, 3 kids with 3 men, some drug use. Now you have the picture.
IMHO, we don’t have until 2016.
Here are the registered voter stats for Florida as of June 2012: GOP - 36%; RAT - 40%; IND - 21%, OTHER - 3%.
I think when the select who to call, the use 08 exit polls-—not the same electorate since 09.
2008 Results (Actual Voters):
FL D +2.8%
OH D +4%
PA D +10.4%
You Go obama! You’re doing just great! CBS says so! No need to worry...
No need for donations from “the poor”
They don’t even need to go vote...! you got it in the bag!
“Unfortunately, that swoon factor is still very much alive among women. Effing amazing...”
As I grow older I am amazed at how my respect for the understanding possessed by the founders of this nation grows and grows. Need I say more?
Obama’s support was MAXED OUT last election, he got everyone he could possibly get.
He has no where to go but down.
And now that people see what he is, I dont think anyone who DID NOT vote for him last time is gonna say “Hey-he’s done all right”
But a lot of people who DID vote for him are saying “ho-lee crab- what the heck did I do”
People WILL LIE to the poll takers so as NOT to be accused of the “r” word. What they do in the privacy of the voting booth will be different.
Here’s how Gallup has the party id in FL and OH.
Ohio D +1.5
Florida D +2
Yet both polls have D +8 or so.
I'm in Ohio now - visiting in-laws. The inlaws have been hard core Dems for ever and no way in hell they would vote for Obama this time around. It seems to be fairly wide-spread as a sentiment, so i have hope...
The one important fact most are missing is that those polled were asked how they identified themselves. So as compared to the actual registrations, there is no way to verify their stated affiliation.
“Sounds like some PA repubs are enamored with 0bama.”
I guess there are a lot anti-Romney Freepers in PA.
Comparing this poll to the 2008 results:
Florida 2008 - D+2.8, Poll - D+9
Ohio 2008 - D+4, Poll - D+8
Pennsylvania 2008 - D+10.4, Poll - D+6
Lemme guess, those three states are the 55-57th states?
(2) The campaign has barely begun. In about a month the cannon balls will really be flying. Sadly, there are a lot of ignorant voters - not to mention the illegal ones that Demonrats will protect come hell or high water. I'm afraid a lot hinges on the "debates", because that will be many sheep's first unfiltered look at the candidates.
(3) I believe Romney will win the popular vote. Remember when SoreLoserman won the popular vote, but lost in the Electoral College? All kinds of talk in the Demonrat Media about how EC was a relic that we need to do away with it. (Truth is, it is an important check on localized election corruption.) If the tables are turned in this election, how much do you want to bet there is nary a peep? Any takers?
Unfortunately all of those states have considerably more people registered as democrats. I don’t think +9 for democrats is an inaccurate sampling.
Even Oklahoma has more people registered as democrats than republicans.
This country is dead. We might as well end the charade, join the EU and be done with it.
The bias in this poll is confirmed by looking at the Senate polling. Compared to every other major poll, the Democratic Senatorial Candidates poll 7-8% higher in this skewed poll.
But you should get a clue; Romney IS the nominee
Really? You tell me to get a clue and you know full well that we have not had the convention yet. Now who needs to get a clue? I am hoping that some patriots will kick Romney to the curb and put someone conservative in there so we don’t have this “down to the wire” type election where it will be close and either one may win.