Skip to comments.Cause for Concern
Posted on 08/02/2012 8:04:00 PM PDT by lasereye
A savvy friend, a Romney supporter who has an excellent track record of reading election trends, emails:
I worry that some of our friends are reassuring themselves by challenging the merits of yesterdays Quinnipiac swing state polls and others, focusing on the partisan split in the samples and other explanations. But are almost all the swing state pollsters making mistakesand in the same direction? Here's what I think is happening.
The national numbers aren't changing much because Romney is actually gaining in the states that are not being bombarded with media. Yesterdays Connecticut poll has Obama by only 8 for example. And red states seem to be getting even redder. This is happening because the daily news is about the economy, Washington problems, etc. and that is the main message getting through. So, polls in these states reflect how voters who only see national news and national advertising (to the degree there is any) respond.
In the swing states they are being assailed with ads and campaigning, as well as the news. And here Obama seems to be building a bit of a margin. He now is ahead by solid margins in the most recent surveys in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. It's very close in Colorado, and Romney has a slight lead in North Carolina.
Team Romney needs to consider this possibility. I don't think it will be enough for them merely to continue the passive approach they are taking. Romney needs to stand for some things the voters want.
That doesn’t seem to bother Harry Reid. He’s as mean and dirty as they come.
You’ve got to look at the weighting of the polls, and half the time they don’t include the methodology. Rush did an excellent job on this yesterday; in the swing state results that looked so good for Obiteme they had simply added 8 or 9 percent Democrats to the vote, over what had shown up in either of the last 2 elections, trending against the Dems, and every indication that they are less enthusiastic about voting now than then.
In other words, they’re cooking the books and not telling you.
In other words, they are lying to you.
"So I think its pretty clear Obama has been making some gains in swing states. There is some cause for concern"
Romney needs to go on the offensive. This really shouldn't be this close of a race. I disagree with pundits who think he should put out his plans now (the leftists will just attack it with lies, anyway- same thing they did to Paul Ryan). Instead, go for broad themes- with a heavy nod to Reagan and the explosive growth we had when he was president. We can have that again.
And Romney should point out the truth in his ads: all Obama has is empty promises (it's his M.O.), economic gimmicks and endless blaming tactics, and attempts to turn this great country into a miserable place where everybody is envious of each other. We have a plan- why reinvent the wheel? Go with what works- and what worked marvelously was what we had under Reagan.
Dirty Harry Reid is also LDS - and it doesn't seem to phase him any...
2) all pollsters admit that it is technically very difficult to measure intensity and intensity unquestionably favors the Republicans this year.
3) my subjective view is that it is far easier and much cheaper to persuade rather than to un-persuade voters. Therefore, Romney risks having an uphill climb during the final sprint to the polling booth. That means he must get his message out when the clutter will be at its most extreme. That message can also easily be lost in an October surprise and it will be submerged and diverted at every level by the establishment media.
4) although the Romney campaign itself is barred from expending funds until after the convention, the public interest groups are not and they are well-heeled. Clearly, Karl Rove is no fool and disposes of tens of millions of dollars which might have gone to defend Romney yet Karl Rove appears on Fox and with his whiteboard and attempts to dispel any concerns that Obama is stealing the March on Romney in the critical swing states.
5) I have been questioning on these threads for some time now the apparent anomaly between the numbers we have seen that say that the independents are favoring Romney as much used two to one, yet that advantage does not appear to be reflected in the polls among the ranks of the undecideds where one would naturally look for it.
“Why feed the MSM monsters early and let them spin the message?”
I agree; in fact, Team Romney should float a fake VP choice for a while to draw the fire (and kill more credibility) of the media before the real choice is announced.
Obama does create his opponents’ commercials for them.
“The enthusiasm gap between (R) and (D) voters is going to be *very* important this year, in my opinion.”
The enthusiasm gap between (I) and (D) is what will crush Obama; too many people have been getting an “up close and personal” schooling in economic misery for several years now, and they are very motivated to vote against a man who says, “The private sector is doing fine.” and “If you have a small business, you didn’t build that.”.
Obama will back on his life-support teleprompter until the election, and those phrases will haunt him through his concession speech.
“Romney needs to go on the offensive. This really shouldn’t be this close of a race.”
I don’t think it will be close, and Romney should just do what Obama did in 2008; smile and wave, and let his surrogates do the attacking.
Did any of the polls in question have the November 2010 massacre right before election day?
I don’t think it will be close either. We have to remember all the outfits in question and all the media are on the other side. Any other president at any other time of either party with the economy where it’s at, the discussion in all the media would have been how badly will he be defeated. Not with this guy.
I was told by older people that Carter acted in the same manner during the 1980 campaign; he was told months before that he was going to inevitably lose, but he put on a brave face and tried to help the others “down the ticket” from him.
I don’t know why people are so confident Obama can win; how many closed businesses, open businesses with no clients, houses for sale, etc. would it take for him to lose? There is every indication that he will lose based on the elections since his own, and those numbers don’t lie. They are facts.
Until Obama is gone I am not convinced. We are not the same nation as we were in 1980 and Obama garners racial solidarity in a way that is beyond disgusting.
He said they sampled that way because they believed that would be the voter turnout on election day. In other words it was a poll based on wishful thinking.
“Until Obama is gone I am not convinced. We are not the same nation as we were in 1980 and Obama garners racial solidarity in a way that is beyond disgusting.”
I agree; it isn’t over until it’s over. At the same time, the “racial solidarity” myth died soon after the election. How else to explain the disasters at the ballot box in 2009 and 2010 (often in states he won in 2008)? The fact that most whites can clearly see he has nothing at all to say to them speaks volumes; every demographic group is worse off than four years ago, and that is tough to overcome. Not only am I personally worse off, but I have a dentist and a car mechanic pushing me to get work done that I won’t do through borrowing; they are feeling Obamanomics as well.
Too many people remember better times, and that is what will get Obama. Governor Christie’s election here in NJ, and his subsequent strength in popularity, would NEVER HAVE HAPPENED 10 years ago; there is a mood of financial desperation in this country, not about our grandchildren’s future, not even our children’s, but our very own.