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The Coming Obama Landslide?
thedailybeast ^ | Aug. 4 | Michael Tomasky

Posted on 08/04/2012 7:25:18 AM PDT by Alistair Stratford IV

The Coming Obama Landslide?

Liberals don’t want to jinx it. It terrifies the right. And the press would prefer a nail-biter. But the fact is that finding Romney’s path to victory is getting harder every day.

There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.

First, let’s discuss Pennsylvania. There has been good reason for Democrats to sweat this state. True, Obama won it handily in 2008, by 10 points. But it’s a state that is older and whiter and more working-class than most of America. Obama benefited from all the unique circumstances of 2008 that helped him across the country, but if ever there were a state where the “well, we gave the black guy a chance and he blew it” meme might catch on, it’s the Keystone State.

But the jobless rate there is 7.5 percent, well below the national average. Democratic voter registration has held its own.

(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...


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To: Road Glide
On July 6, I published the following reply which is congruent with much of what you had to say in yours:

The threat represented by Obama that you so accurately outlined will not go away even if Obama is defeated in this election.

The current political situation in this country is such that we are likely to win this election but only because of Obama overreach and the condition of the economy. Next time around, the demographics are likely to prevail over any conservative message. America is becoming more like California in which common sense and decency are swept aside by a tsunami of immigrants/emigrants. Watch Texas in the upcoming cycles and see if it follows New Mexico.

Therefore, it is insufficient for the survival of a constitutional republic merely to defeat Obama in this election, he must be repudiated. If Romney wins it will be his responsibility as President of the United States to the rule of law to prosecute every misdeed of the Obama administration unto the the limits of the law. It is obvious that Romney's campaign will not do what Newt Gingrich would have done, characterize Obama for what he is, a Marxist and a corrupt Chicago style pol and, I concede, it is unlikely that his administration will vigorously prosecute Obama administration's crimes-but it must be done.

In this respect our button-down candidate is reminiscent of George Bush who not only declined to expose Clinton for what he was but actively sought to rehabilitate Clinton and, unbelievably, Teddy Kennedy. It is one thing to accord a candidate latitude in fighting an election and quite another to condone the kind of pandering to leftists that has been conducted by the Bushes once they have the power of the presidency and the control of the Attorney General. Instead, George W. Bush painted himself into such a corner that he felt compelled to appoint a special prosecutor in the Valerie Plame affair, a scandal about nothing. Compare that with the behavior of Obama in the far more serious case of leaking our state secrets.

We see the same phenomenon occurring now in the attempts to salvage the reputation among conservatives of Chief Justice John Roberts. Those who worship the false god of comity do so at the expense of the Constitution, the rule of law, and even the survival of the Republic. The worship is predicated on false assumptions. For example, it is the belief that there is a legitimate intellectual exercise now going on in United States Supreme Court. Nothing could be further from the truth. The four liberal justices have no intention whatsoever of permitting the Constitution to interfere with their agenda. It is not a legitimate institution if four out of nine Justices are conducting a sham.

It is similarly not a decent exercise in representative democracy when the outcome is skewed because of race. There is no decent society if we descend into tribalism. Obama clearly is sacrificing the unity of the country to the advancement of his own narcissism and the advancement of his Marxist worldview. If Obama loses and Romney has not made the case that both Obama and his worldview are illegitimate, not just unpopular, the virus he represents will erupt again only to feed on an even more favorable demographic body. Marxism is a virus which, like the Hun, is either at our feet or at our throat and it will emerge and threaten our very existence as a Republic the next time the Democrats find an attractive candidate.

I said months before the debacle of the 2008 election that Barack Obama had to be "morally" destroyed or John McCain simply had no chance whatsoever to win the election. That was true. I repeat, Obama and Obamaism must be morally destroyed for the very survival of the country.


51 posted on 08/04/2012 9:28:28 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Democrats are apparently indulging in recreational pharmaceuticals in an effort to cope with what they know is coming.


52 posted on 08/04/2012 9:28:55 AM PDT by nolongerademocrat ("Before you ask G-d for something, first thank G-d for what you already have." B'rachot 30b)
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To: jjotto

Could be. If the RAT Party fractures into the Greens, the Minorities, and Labor at the same time, it could get interesting.

GOP / Tea Party on the Right.

Greens / Labor / Minorities on the Left.


53 posted on 08/04/2012 9:34:29 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: robowombat

I wrote “Surviving Civil War II” that addresses some of your scenario. Liberals can’t count on the army for a civil war, so they fight with proxy armies of illegals, unions, anarchists. http://www.futurnamics.com/civilwar.php


54 posted on 08/04/2012 9:54:52 AM PDT by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: sefarkas
Until Romney starts polling consistent leads in swing states (enough to carry 270+ EVs), do not be too dismissive of the analysis. Preaching to the choir will not get Romney elected POTUS.

I agree. I remember 2008, all the freepers dismissing the polls, saying Obama couldn't possibly win. Well, in 2008 the pollsters were correct.

55 posted on 08/04/2012 10:01:33 AM PDT by jeannineinsd
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

LOL.

Michael Tomasky, desperately wanting to be King of the Knee Pads.


56 posted on 08/04/2012 10:05:24 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Road Glide; All
I’ve previously predicted in several posts here that because of demographic changes, it will become increasingly difficult for Republican candidates to “build” an electoral college majority in the decades ahead. The main problem is that the left starts an election cycle with a larger “electoral vote base” than do the Republicans.

As demographics have changed, and as the older cohort of Euro-American voters dies off, states that may once have been “battleground” states topple over to become “true blue” states, perhaps never to “vote red” again. Of course, within such states there may be conservative enclaves (California comes to mind, and the vast majority of Illinois is far more conservative than the Chicago area), but they are overwhelmed electorally by the huge number of “blue voters” who drown out any political voice the right has.

You neglect to mention one very important population trend that cuts in favor of the GOP: the shift of electoral votes toward the "red states" in general, led by solidly "red" Texas. Remember that before the 2010 Census was conducted, many thought that it would be rigged to help the 'Rats increase their power. But the net result is that states that voted for McCain in 2008 will have more total electoral votes in 2012 and states that voted for Zero will have less. Texas alone, IIRC, is getting four more House seats and this means four more electoral votes. So advantage GOP there.

Texas' Hispanic population is still along way from the "tipping point," as the state is now predominantly Republican. And your assumption that Hispanics will continue to vote as sharply Democrat in the future as they do now may not pan out, as other ethnic groups have become less addicted to the 'Rats with the passage of time and more assimilation.

57 posted on 08/04/2012 10:12:30 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Walrus
And here’s an inconvenient truth for the beasties: Virtually no one who voted for someone not named Obama last time around is going to switch and vote for him this time. On the other hand, many of those who voted for Obama in 2008 ARE switching.

You said it succinctly and correctly. That is the main concern of the Dems. That is why Obama is pandering to illegal aliens, gays, and high schoolers who will vote for the first time. That is why he tries to scare women and seniors so they vote with their emotions and not with their brains. He needs and must have their votes. So many who ignored his obvious lack of qualifications and his socialistic agenda and who were gullible enough to fall for his rhetoric and lies have abandoned him. After almost four years they have finally seen that the exposed, real Obama hates America, our Capitalistic society, and our Christian/Jewish beliefs and values, and the entrepreneurial spirit of our business culture.

And what is even worse for him, the far left voters/progressives are disillusioned because he was not the total reformer they thought they could count on who would deliver what they wanted. Oh, he has worked hard at developing some "Utopian" government-controlled society and attempted to accomplish the demise of our country. But, the will and awareness of freedom loving Americans is stronger than the Left realized, even stronger now that we have been challenged.

All in all, anyone with a thinking mind who gave him a chance based on whatever reason, has realized that after four years of on-the-job training Obama hasn't performed to their expectations and shows no signs of improvement.

The experiment with Obama is over. The result: he has proved the truth - you cannot put an immature, inexperienced, unqualified person in a leadership position - it never works for anyone. The country is fed up with his whining, lying, excuses, blame games, slouching, disconnected and elitist attitude. This time people are really "hoping for a change" in the Oval Office come November.

58 posted on 08/04/2012 10:28:30 AM PDT by CitizenM (Obama - The architect of the decline of the U.S.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV; All

This economic model predicts Obamugabe will lose in a near landslide. Dots are given to compare with other Presidential elections.

Source: http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/08/economic-forecasting-model-predicts-obama-will-lose-in-near-landslide/

This model missed in 1996 and 2000.

59 posted on 08/04/2012 10:32:13 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: pieceofthepuzzle
pieceofthepuzzle said: "One would have thought that with all the babies born in the USSR being indoctrinated from an early age in the glory of communism, and the dying out of the older generations that knew better, that there would be no way the USSR would cease to exist. "

Yours is the point I wished to make.

There is more difference between the two political parties than just the spelling of their names.

Socialism has just about run its course throughout Europe and the U.S. The socialists have just about run out of "other people's money"; those "other people" consisting of generations yet unborn.

Unfortunately, we will have to endure literal starvation before many people come to their senses. We will have people standing in bread lines wondering why nobody is making any bread. The decline will continue until those in line starve to death or leave the line in order to go make bread, clinging to their guns in order to prevent others from stealing their bread.

I wish I could come up with a realistic scenario with less suffereing. I can't.

60 posted on 08/04/2012 11:45:16 AM PDT by William Tell
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To: SoFloFreeper

I’ve seen that data before but I think it misses the way the country has changed in the last 30 years.

Baraq is drawing his support from the entitled/dependent.

So the jobs component isn’t nearly as important as it used to be.

As long as he can generate an unlimited supply of Baraqqi/Bernanke/Geithner minibucks and spend $1.40 for every $1.00 of revenue, he’s good to go.

(I realize eventually we’ll auger in, but not in time for the 2012 election.)


61 posted on 08/04/2012 11:52:41 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: RightWingConspirator

What is the current analysis of California?
It is pretty much in the clutches of the Democrats but with a 11 to 12 % Unemployment rate and all the problems there is there any snowball’s chance this state is is play?????


62 posted on 08/04/2012 11:58:51 AM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

As my dear ol’ mom used to say:

“CONSIDER THE SOURCE”.


63 posted on 08/04/2012 12:02:42 PM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Obama has a lot going for him.

Most voters believe they DESERVE free sh*t, believe that equality of outcomes is the government’s job, believe that the consequences of their misbehavior (I GOT A RIGHT) should be paid for by others, and believe that any babies of “single moms” they don’t kill in the womb should have financial security taken care of by somebody else.

If one or more of these applies, Obama’s your guy. He got 69 million votes last time.

He will probably be reelected.


64 posted on 08/04/2012 12:05:08 PM PDT by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown are by desperate appliance relieved or not at all.)
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To: Captain Peter Blood; RightWingConspirator
What is the current analysis of California? It is pretty much in the clutches of the Democrats but with a 11 to 12 % Unemployment rate and all the problems there is there any snowball’s chance this state is is play?????

CA is in bad shape economically, and I understand BO is spending a lot of advertising dollars here.

One year ago Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law the "winner take all" rule that the winner of the national popular vote will win ALL of CA's electoral votes.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2011/08/california-electoral-votes.html

65 posted on 08/04/2012 12:10:48 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: thecodont
I think you missed the most relevant sentence in the article you linked:

The change approved by Brown will occur only if it is adopted by states with a majority of the electoral votes in the country. California is the eighth state to approve the new system.

66 posted on 08/04/2012 12:13:44 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Jim Noble

Are you part of the Obama white voter suppression squad?


67 posted on 08/04/2012 12:16:22 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: nascarnation

Thanks for catching that.

So how many states with a majority of the electoral votes in the country (besides CA) have approved this new system?


68 posted on 08/04/2012 12:20:09 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: thecodont

I know Wikipedia is not held in high regard by FReepers but this is the best summary I could find:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

Short version: this idea has a LONG road ahead and likely may never happen.


69 posted on 08/04/2012 12:25:01 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: nascarnation

I think most people still want a job. I really don’t buy the notion MOST voters are fine with European socialism...otherwise 2010 never would have happened.


70 posted on 08/04/2012 1:08:08 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: nascarnation

I think most people still want a job. I really don’t buy the notion MOST voters are fine with European socialism...otherwise 2010 never would have happened.


71 posted on 08/04/2012 1:08:59 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Soul of the South; pieceofthepuzzle; SunkenCiv; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; theothercheek; ...

Please see my post # 57.


72 posted on 08/04/2012 2:14:30 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: SoFloFreeper
I really don’t buy the notion MOST voters are fine with European socialism...otherwise 2010 never would have happened.

You have a point there. However it's not so much the problem that most voters are fine with European socialism, it's more the problem that too many voters are too ignorant to sniff out out socialism and defeat it before it takes root.

73 posted on 08/04/2012 2:20:20 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: justiceseeker93

That’s right.


74 posted on 08/04/2012 2:57:25 PM PDT by nolongerademocrat ("Before you ask G-d for something, first thank G-d for what you already have." B'rachot 30b)
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To: justiceseeker93

“Hey, Michael, George W. Bush won two elections without winning Pennsylvania. The fact is that it’s not that Romney can’t win without Pennsylvania, it’s that Obama can’t win without it! Let’s not turn things upside down. “

He conveniently forgot that part.
Thanks for the ping, I love a good comedy!


75 posted on 08/04/2012 3:42:48 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: justiceseeker93

Another fact people seem to forget about in regards to the Hispanic community is their faith. After the attacks this administration has laid on the Catholic Church I think many will be re-thinking their position on voting Dem. That is, if we can keep their illegal counterparts from participating... There is a loud voice in the illegal community that tries to pretend that there are not thousands more who sacrificed to come here LEGALLY and are NOT happy about those who did not. I think there will be some surprises this year for the Dems - that’s why the DOJ is trying so hard to stop the states that are actually trying to reduce the likelihood of voter fraud.

I also can’t imagine that Blacks who attend Baptist Churches are that happy about the recent attacks against their religion and beliefs either. I think many Dems overplayed their hand and exposed their true colors. I pray enough noticed.


76 posted on 08/04/2012 3:50:23 PM PDT by LibertyRocks
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To: thecodont

“CA is in bad shape economically, and I understand BO is spending a lot of advertising dollars here.”

I was wondering about that. I’m pretty confident that the Kenyan is going to lose this election but have little doubt he will still carry CA. So I’m curious why we’re getting all these Obama ads. I know they’re in a panic and now begging for contributions, so why spend all the money here?


77 posted on 08/04/2012 4:33:11 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
OOOOOOOooooooooo!

I am terrified!

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

78 posted on 08/04/2012 5:15:37 PM PDT by publius911 (Formerly Publius 6961, formerly jennsdad)
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To: Cheerio
The political landscape City v country

Zoomable map here.

79 posted on 08/04/2012 5:18:02 PM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

The title of the “analysis” should have been “This is how I get blog hits and dates from DUmmies.”

(Chick dates or guy dates, it all same same in the Dimocrat world)


80 posted on 08/04/2012 6:19:16 PM PDT by citizen (It's no longer Obamacare. It's Robertscare now. He wanted it, he bought it, he owns it.nn)
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To: nathanbedford

Ausgezeichnet!

Scrolling through the thread, I came to your post which was a reprise of your July 6 posting - which I did not see.

Halfway through, I thought, “This is the guy with the 1860’s general’s picture at the end.” Sure enough.

Your comments capture the truth of our predicament in seven paragraphs which nail the necessity of the moral annihilation of the tribal cult of Obamao.

Alas, that presumes some moral sensitivity in the target audience.

I have concluded that there is too little to matter. Yes, I will work to defeat the Won, promote constitutional principles, etc. But make no mistake.

Even if Romney takes the throne, the time it buys us is helpful, but not salvational.

Get out of the cities now. Become a ‘prepper’ and trust the Lord. Think Germany 1931.

And again, please continue your prescient postings.

Thank You and Shalom


81 posted on 08/04/2012 6:37:29 PM PDT by esopman (Blessings on Freepers Everywhere and Their Most Intelligent Designer)
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To: justiceseeker93

Thanks for the ping!


82 posted on 08/04/2012 9:13:13 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: LibertyRocks; firebrand; juliej; ExTexasRedhead; chicagolady; ml/nj; bamahead; fieldmarshaldj; ...
I think there will be some surprises this year for the Dems - that’s why the DOJ is trying so hard to stop the states that are actually trying to reduce the likelihood of voter fraud.

The 'Rats would be cheating in just about any election to the greatest extent that they can and using the levers of government they control at all levels to aid and abet that cheating and fraud to the greatest extent that they can, regardless of their overall chances. This goes pretty much across the board, nationally and locally, regardless of the predominant voter ethnic group involved in a particular location.

In the 2008 presidential election, the intuitive guess is that cheating was the decisive factor in a couple of states that O won narrowly - notably Indiana and North Carolina - but that he would have had enough electoral votes to win the White House anyway even if they had conducted the voting and vote counting honestly.

It's just a reflection of their perverse value system: winning takes precedence over winning within the law. Obviously that mentality is a cancer on constitutional republican government. Voter ID laws and purging rolls of ineligible voters can counteract the cheating to a certain extent, but only so far.

83 posted on 08/05/2012 5:07:36 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Road Glide; Soul of the South; justiceseeker93; randita; AuH2ORepublican; GOPsterinMA; BillyBoy; ...

The Coming Osama Landslide? That is not on the table. Osama can win, but it’s HE can only win narrowly.

As for the “Brown Menace” argument “for the future”, I read in like 2002 that those people said “Texas would be swing state by 2008”. Fuzzy math? More like arrogant boasts by self-loathing White democrats.

BTW Omaha is not in play this time Road Glide so don’t worry.


84 posted on 08/05/2012 7:35:40 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: justiceseeker93; AuntB; ExTexasRedhead; Liz; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; unkus; little jeremiah

If this happens, then it’s time to pack and leave, because it won’t be America anymore. Maybe a neighborhood of FR immigrants can be formed. I can learn to like hockey, shoveling snow, and maple syrup on everything.


85 posted on 08/07/2012 5:22:27 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama and Company lied, the American economy died)
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To: Clintonfatigued; GOPsterinMA

The author of this article is hooked on Heisenberg’s special blue meth.


86 posted on 08/07/2012 6:59:23 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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