I’m going to save this idiotic analysis to use as an example in the future of what’s wrong with the stupid red-blue electoral look at American politics.
Look at the 2010 election....R gain 63 seats, but also look at some seats demholes held. Career dems in ultra safe districtsbthatbnormally won by 20 or 30 points only winning by 10 or 15. Likewise, dem that usually won by 15-20 winning by single digits - barney fwank for instance. And of course those that often cruised to 10 point victories barely holding on. So nationally there was a 10 point swing...so there’s no way dems win Indiana again. So take the 2008 numbers and move 5 pct min from D to R! There’s your baseline