Wait, the U.S. economy actually lost 1.2 million jobs in July?

The Washington Post ^ | August 5, 2012 | by Brad Plumer

[khelus]

And just exactly where does one find the high school and college June graduate numbers looking for work?

Last I heard they don’t exist on unemployment rolls as they’ve “never had jobs”.

Can you tell me different?

A BLS (Bureau of Lies and Statistics) citation would be most helpful.

Thanks in advance

First - A little background info on unemployment rate and jobs created.

[my additions to BLS quotes are in square brackets]

In theory a high school or college graduate would be counted as unemployed in the Household Survey (which is also called the Current Population Survey} if they have looked for a job in the last four weeks. I have included several links.

"Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. Persons who were not working and were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been temporarily laid off are also included as unemployed.

Receiving benefits from the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program has no bearing on whether a person is classified as unemployed."

"The [civilian] labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons."

"Persons who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force. This category includes retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work. Information is collected on their desire for and availability for work, job search activity in the prior year, and reasons for not currently searching."

How is the population updated with those new graduates? It looks like projections are made based upon the 200 census plus other data. This is the only info I have found:
"The independent population controls are prepared by projecting forward the resident population as enumerated on April 1, 2000. The projections are derived by updating demographic census data with information from a variety of other data sources that account for births, deaths, and net migration. Subtracting estimated numbers of resident Armed Forces personnel and institutionalized persons reduces the resident population to the civilian noninstitutional population."

More information on how the Household survey is conducted.

How well those new graduates looking for a job are reflected in the BLS stats depends upon how well the Household Survey participants reflect the population as a whole and the accuracy of the statistical tools used to project those results on the population as a whole.

Hopefully this has been helpful.

[Covenantor]

How is the population updated with those new graduates? It looks like projections are made based upon the 200 census plus other data. This is the only info I have found: "The independent population controls are prepared by projecting forward the resident population as enumerated on April 1, 2000. The projections are derived by updating demographic census data with information from a variety of other data sources that account for births, deaths, and net migration. Subtracting estimated numbers of resident Armed Forces personnel and institutionalized persons reduces the resident population to the civilian noninstitutional population."

_________________________________

So instead of Dept of Ed obtaining real world, real time data from All public schools as to total number of grads, number college bound, number not college bound, and number of sr drop-outs, there's a convoluted process of decade old numbers (already suspect). Same for college and universities.

These are then massaged by multiple arcane projections to come up with 'The Numberz"

is that about right?

You're good with that? Confident enough to risk your own money based on the BLS numbers?

[khelus]

These are then massaged by multiple arcane projections to come up with 'The Numberz"

is that about right? ...

Yup. "Multiple arcane projections" are also where the opportunity lies to manipulate the numbers leaving the Civilian Labor Force, keeping the unemployment rate artificially low.

... You're good with that? ...

Not in the least. You should see how the CPI is suppressed, which in turn artificially raises the seasonally adjusted GDP.

... Confident enough to risk your own money based on the BLS numbers? ... Not at all. I am OTH astounded at how no one in the MSM even questions the BLS numbers.

The blue line gives a good approximation of unemployment if you add back in all those working part time who need full time and those not in the Civilian Labor Force who want a job.

The chart goes back to 1994 when a major over haul of unemployment stats was released. U-1 through U-7 were replaced by U-1 through U-6 and the calculation of those not in the Civilian Labor Force was opened to manipulation; IMHO this has proved a great way to hide those displaced by Globalization, 'free trade', open borders, out sourcing, off shoring, guest workers, and illegal aliens.

The revisions were the result of work by the BLS under both parties. "...work by BLS and the Bureau of the Census began in the mid-1980's to redesign the CPS to better capture the dynamics of the contemporary labor market, while incorporating recent advances in data collection technology..."

[Covenantor]

Thanks very much for the info.

[khelus]

My pleasure.