I think it's BS as well, but the poll numbers assume every person who "switches from McCain" is now supporting Obama, and vice versa. Apparently they're assuming EVERY person who switches is going from one major party to another.
I was a McCain voter in 2008, and I may not vote Republican in 2012. But there's no way in hell I'd vote for Obama. Since I live in Illinois and my vote doesn't matter anyway, I'm looking for a reason to vote GOP. In 2008, the reason was Sarah Palin. If it's a ticket like Romney-Rice, there's a good chance I'll end up voting for Virgil Goode.
I can see 5% of McCain voters switching to another candidate. I can't see 5% of them switching to Obama though. If you didn't like Obama when it was hip and cool to support him and the mainstream media made him out to be a deity, it makes no logical sense that you're on his side now that he's less popular than dog meat.
I’m sure McCain had some hardcore RINO fans that usually don’t like GOPers but they should be fine with Romney.
this would be an interesting study in a single state poll, like OH.
poll the McCain voters from ‘08, break em down into Mitt, Obama, someone else, staying home, dead, moved. Difficult project.
so your results are something like
McCain-Romney 43%
Obama-Obama 40%
McCain-Obama ?
O-R ?
Obama-nonvoter ?
MCcain-nonvoter ?
nonvoter-Romney ?
nonvoter-Obama ?
Romney should put an effort into the nonvoters from 08.
4% of the population is now dead and 4% of the pop is new voters who could not vote in 08. Maybe more, if you count new illegals.
do you realize that some of McCain voters had
very favorable for McCain and
favorable toward Obama ... and they chose McCain, not out of dislike for Obama. ?? They ain’t conservatives.
Now they still like Obama and they dislike Romney.
There are lots of odd folks in the electorate. Dems in FLA who hated Gore and voted for Nader. Dems bark that Nader cost Gore the election, but these folks would not have voted Gore. And many of the Buchanan voters in FLA would not have voted for Bush. Many 3rd party voters would become undervotes without the 3rd party candidate. Leave it blank. Yes, people leave the Prez race blank and vote for the local races.