Skip to comments.WTOP POLL: Obama 48, Romney 46 in northern Va.!!
Posted on 08/08/2012 11:58:32 AM PDT by Bulwinkle
Since that is surely within the margin-of-error and they almost always oversample Democrats and left-leaning independents, that actually means that Governor Romney is BEATING Mr. Obama in that area. Can you say Nixon vs. McGovern, kids? Sure.
If true, this is going to be a landslide for the GOP. We’ll see how this plays out in other polling data.
Editor’s Note: The D.C. metro phone survey was conducted among 550 adults age 18 and over, between July 26 and July 29, 2012. This included representative samples of 200 people in Virginia (Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford) 250 in Maryland (Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George’s and 100 in D.C.
Northern VA? How did that go in the 2008 elections?
Beat me to it!
“ADULTS” ?????????????? meaningless poll.
obama won nva by about 20 in 2008
well, if Romeny is doing this well among Adults, he is going to blow out 0bama.
Obama needs to win N. Virgina by 10 points (at least) to be competitive state-wide. He doesn’t have a prayer if N. Virgina is this close.
N. Virgina is basically a Northeast State (due to their dependence on DC), while the rest of the state is a Southern State...they are a pretty good reflection on the country. If Romney can be close in the Northeast, McGovern’s kids may have someone to make them feel better.
Obama carried Virginia. Northern Virginia is the blue part of the commonwealth, so this is good news.
Not entirely meaningless. The fact that a sample of adults has Romney within 2 points of Obama and the takeaway is that Obama is in deep trouble in what is supposed to be a stronghold for him.
Interesting thing about polls. They normalize them to the number of Democrats, Independents and Republicans that they think there should be. So let’s (simplify this and)see how this works. Suppose you poll 10 people and 6 are Democrats for Obama and 4 are Republicans for Romney, you call that as Obama 60% - Romney 40%. Then, some time later, you asked those same 10 people the same question and all answer the same except 2 Obama Democrats now say, “We are sick of Obama, we are now Republicans and we support Romney.” You’d think that would be reported as Romney 60% - Obama 40%, BUT NO!!!! It’s reported as “Obama 60% - Romney 40%” because we had previously established that 60% are Democrats and 40% are Republicans and the new poll has to be updated to reflect that same party affiliation.
So among 550 adults, not voters, not likely voters, Obama is only up by 2%. This is Northern Virginia, the most Fed. Govt. Beltway types in the state.
This is very, very bad for Obama. I had been figuring that Va. was traditionally important for the Republicans, but that Colorado plus New Hampshire could make up for the loss of Virginia. But getting all three of these states could counter even the loss of Ohio for Romney.
More and more, it’s smelling like a blowout landslide. Obama is losing before Romney is formally nominated and before most people are even focused on him.
Obama is driving people away. They have judged him a failure. The dozens of un-American, just creepy, things he’s done over the last four years are “coming back to roost.”
How Left is this area? Are most/all the state reps and congressional reps in these areas blue?
No really a meaningless poll.
The results can be tweeted to discourage Obama supporters. There’s always some use to poll results.
But a cautious note on the polsters: “Heart+Mind Strategies partners are part of the former leadership of Wirthlin Worldwide founded by Dr. Richard B. Wirthlin a pioneer in values-based research and Ronald Reagans pollster. “
Could be very accurate though. Wirthlin, now deceased, had a terrific repitation.
Not meaningless at all if it’s a truly random sample given that Republicans consistently turn out a larger percentage of voters unless for some reason that is not the case in Northern Virginia.
Rasmussen’s VA poll posted today shows Obama up by 2 (48-46).
I’m truly stunned my fellow Virginians haven’t awakened to the spectre of Obamination II.
Never underestimate the massive un-Adult vote.