Skip to comments.Landslide on the Horizon
Posted on 08/09/2012 5:55:13 AM PDT by SumProVita
When I read Nate Silver, Sean Trende, Charlie Cook, Jay Cost, and the others who make a profession of political prognostication, I pay close attention to their attempts to dissect the polling data and predict what is to come. But I also take everything that they say with a considerable grain of salt. You see, I lived through the 1980 election, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and I was struck at the time by the fact that next to no one among the political scientists who made a living out of studying presidential elections, communism in eastern Europe, and Sovietology saw any of these upheavals coming. Virtually all of them were caught flat-footed.
This is, in fact, what you would expect. They were all expert in the ordinary operations of a particular system, and within that framework they were pretty good at prognostication. But the apparent stability of the system had lured them into a species of false confidence not unlike the false confidence that fairly often besets students of the stock market.
There were others, less expert in the particulars of these systems, who had a bit more distance and a bit more historical perspective and who saw it coming. The Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik wrote a prescient book entitled Can the Soviet Union Survive 1984? Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn predicted communisms imminent collapse, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan suspected that the Soviet Union would soon face a fatal crisis. They were aware that institutions and outlooks that are highly dysfunctional will eventually and unexpectedly dissolve.
(Excerpt) Read more at ricochet.com ...
I agree with much of this analysis. I think Obama will be SOUNDLY trounced in November.
Keep praying patriots!
Remember Jimmah Cahtah was way ahead in the polls weeks before being stomped by the Gipper.
I still think it will be close, because by October, Barry is gonna be desperate enough to be proposing free giveaway programs to everybody.
I absolutely remember that!
Prayer is entirely appropriate, but we also need to work hard. I have my own views on how this election might go, but the final outcome will depend on the national mood. If decent Americans line up to vote like we lined up for Chik-Fil-A, 2012 will make 2010 look like a minor skirmish. If we get complacent and lose interest, America will die. If we lose in November, this really will be the final election that matters at all.
Praise the Lord . . . and pass the ammunition.
I personally think Romney has made a mistake not responding more forcefully to the RAT attempt to paint him as an out-of-touch, elitist wimp.
While it could be that the electorate will break hard for Romney, I think it is at least equally likely that the undecideds will choose to go with the guy they personally find more likable (not Romney) and that they already know when all is said and done.
At the very least, Romney needs to make a strong case that people are voting FOR something and not just against the President. Even though most dislike Baraq’s policies, the mushy middle won’t toss him out unless they feel Romney truly is the better option.
Check my posts. I have been saying this since Barry lost Teddys senate seat.
I don’t know about anyone else but I’ve had 2 calls and I always say Obama.
I have had two very long polling calls also, and I refuse to comment on the presidential race, maybe they record that as an undecided.
Polling Dates: 15-18 Aug 1980
Sampling size: 1600 (Adults or Registered... not indicated)
Nah. He's going to start a war with Iran. Proving that H. Beam Piper was more right than Isaac Asimov, when Piper modified Azimov’s aphorism that “Violence was the last refuge of the incompetent” by adding “because the incompetent don't try violence until it is too late for even that to be of use.”
The Won is incompetent.
A landslide defeat for 0bama will “prove” that racism is still an issue in America...
I guarantee that will be the meme.
Hopefully...that will happen.
Regarding voters: I know too many (good but terribly uninformed) people who voted for Obama....and who now know they made a grave mistake. I know because they are saying so to their friends. I suspect that his is taking place on a larger scale than is reported...because none of them has been polled.
I do not hear Romney doing any of the things reccomended above. He is not calling for smaller, limited government.
There are few undecideds at this point and should they break for Obama as you suggest they may it would be the first time in my own long history of following elections at this level it would have happened.
Sounds like DC.............
How many people actually tell the truth? Do working conservatives who read about what happens when they have anti-Obama stickers on their car etc tell the truth? Are people afraid of being tagged a “racist” if they tell the truth? Just wondering if that could have something to do with it.
Same here. I have one aunt and uncle that said it was the biggest mistake of their lives. They are in their 70's.
This might be the cockroach in our dream of a landslide.
Over 100 Million Now Receiving Federal Welfare
Welfare voter push has (Ma) GOP crying foul
The state has mailed out voter registration letters to nearly 500,000 welfare recipients,in a push sparked by a group led by former ACORN bigwigs that critics say is a naked bid to boost Democrats at the polls in November.
If Obama is defeated, and conservatives retake the Senate and keep the House, and men of values and Christian character gain control over the levers of power, it is still only a postponement of the inevitable - UNLESS we take this brief window of opportunity to:
* End the war on Christianity and Christian values;
* Re-establish the US as a nation of values;
* Demolish the welfare state completely;
* Re-establish the Puritan work-ethic - I only want what I’ve earned, to give charity is the individual’s choice, and to accept charity is shameful;
* Re-establish the covenant of marriage as the ONLY acceptable outlet for sexual behavior;
* Eliminate the immigration of those cannot contribute to the new system;
OTHERWISE, the demographics will continue to shift in the direction of the behavior which is being subsidized, and our victory will be short-lived.
Pray for God’s strength, guidance and blessing to accomplish these things..
People don’t pay attention until after Labor Day and the conventions.
Willard doesn’t need to be shooting expensive barrages right now.
Obama cannot get over 42-43% in a general election PERIOD!! and that’s if he runs a flawless campaign, and his campaign is a absolute JOKE!
This guy is heading for the biggest election disaster for an incumbent president since Herbert Hoover, and frankly I think Hoover at the end of the day will have done better.
Obama is spending 100s of Millions and his polling doesn’t move, and when it does its not in a good direction for him. Him and his surrogates continue to just engage in more and more outrageous allegations, and it backfires. Reid with taxes, The group with the Romney killed my wife, its rediculous, and they are going to get even more and more petty and desperate as the election gets closer and its obvious they are losing, and every time they do, he will go further down in the pools.
Obama is a pathetically small man, who lacks the character, and fortitude to ever be great, and doesn’t have the political talent of your local Alderman. This guy is so far out of his element, that the electorate has already written him off... There is NOTHING he can say or do that will move people to him, and the more desperate they act trying to get folks to, the more the electorate will move away from him. Only the kool aid drinkers are listening to anything he’s saying. No allegation against his oponent made by him carries any weight to anyone outside the chior he already has, because everyone else has already written him off as a 2 bit, 1 act charlatan.
Obama is the most inept politician to ever sit at 1600 pennsylvania avenue, certainly the most inept in 100 years, and very arguably ever. He was able to push through what he wanted by intimidation when he had the majority, but hasn’t been able to do anything since, because THUGGERY is not POLITICS.. and that’s what this punk is, nothing but a 2 bit hood in a suit.
Thus, the case MUST be made that... without a GOOD economy....there is NO MONEY for welfare.
The good news is that it is slowly is happening, take a look at what took place last week at the CFA cafes.
People running ads for Obama simply make the case that the gravy train will end if you don’t vote for Obama.
“This guy is heading for the biggest election disaster for an incumbent president...”
Pray that this will be so, and that Obama takes the Democrat Party down with him. Every Democrat who supported this scourge of our country should be kicked out of office in the greatest purge of a political party in the history of this country. Everyone should be working and praying for this result, because it may be our last chance to preserve the liberty that was bought with the blood of thousands of patriots in our history .
That is true. Mitt KNOWS right now people are still in “summer vacation” mode, they are paying more attention to the summer olympics, as well as getting the children ready for back to school. Plus the conventions have not taken place and Labor Day has not yet come.
Mitt is laying in wait, ready to pounce.
I.e., the "Bradley Effect"... a complete non-factor last time around.
Just to reinforce your comment, Reagan did not win by pandering to the uncommitted. He was vogorously conservative and patriotic, not like the vanilla Mittens. It matters where a politician stands. In the middle is not a position of principle.
I really don't think he can do this. He has no basic grounding in these values, he doesn't really believe them, or anything. He is a very shallow and very competent business pragmatist. He sees nothing wrong with the welfare state other than it isn't working very well. He thinks he knows he can make it work better by putting it on a businesslike basis.
All the talk about first principles is just noise to him, necessary noise that he has to echo but he is uncomfortable with it and doesn't really know how to respond effectively.
The one thing that always "brings the people together."
Both Bushes were in the 90s in popularity right after the Iraq wars began.
I don't even want to consider another 9/11 as a "wag the dog."
I welcome the meme, because that means that Fauxbama the traitor and his Wookie wife will be living somewhere else than 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It is worth any cost.
Oh, don’t worry about that, the Democratic party is going to face a shelacing.. No, they won’t all be purged from power, but the serious political discussion by October will be around whether the republicans will get 60 senate seats, no one but the most adamant kool aid drinker will be seriously arguing Obama will win the White House.
Keep a few facts in mind, MOST of the Democrats in the senate who voted for ObamaCare haven’t faced the voters yet, they will this time around! Senate is the real place to be watching the presidential race isn’t even going to be close.
Now alaways fight like its a 50 50 race, but believe me once Romney truly begins to spend his warchest in september, you are going to see the polls finally start to catch up with the reality on the ground. Those thinking Romney won’t fight are fools, they missed the primary, he’ll fight and he’ll get dirty doing it if it needs to. The outlandish attacks by dems will get even more and more rediculous! Lets face it, they are already so outlandish EVEN CNN CALLED THEM ON IT AND ITS ONLY AUGUST! By October the claims are going to be preposterous.. and the more petty and rediculous they get the more folks are going to mover and more resolved people are going to be to send them packing.
There is a purge coming folks, no its not going to be biblical but its going to be massive. The Reid/Pelosi/Obama path to destruction is going to hit the dems up and down the ticket hard.
Indeed worthit. My point was that we get in front of it and predict out loud what they’re going to do, then point & laugh at them when they can’t help themselves.
We have to remind ourselves, from time to time, that Obama will have mafia tricks up his sleeves. I believe he will have an “event” to happen in some big city, like civil unrest before November 6. It will give him opportunity to order a country wide martial law, cancel the elections, and suspend the constitution. All this before he will lose to the people. He does not love white America, you, or me.
The simple political philosophy of America should always be... Government should remain out of your wallets and off your backs to the absolute greatest degree possible.
Sadly that is not remotely what our leaders or government do or have done in a long long time.
I am not radically anti-government, but I do believe in limited government and limited government doesn’t do things like ban perfectly safe and proven products from the marketplace like light bulbs!!
Scary as Hell, that one. However, since I trust Obama to act in the best interests of this country even less than I can pick up and throw an aircraft carrier, I consider this to at least be within the realm of possibility. Those that he has had as mentors utterly despise this country, and Ayres & friends spoke of eliminating 25 million people - so what is beyond their capacity? What was beyond those of many 20th Century despots in an attempt to gain or hold on to power?
Though I certainly agree with your post, I don't see this window of opportunity of which you speak
We are no longer a nation of such people, except in small pockets of populations centers
Yes there are many conservatives of such a mindset but vastly more that would find your list archaic and medieval that should be shunned by civilized men
We need to take this window of opportunity to put in place those Strategic items necessary to promote Conservatism.
These items would definitely include modifying school instruction at all levels to show Conservatism and Liberalism in their true lights. Without this one major item, Conservatism will always be at an unfair disadvantage.
I was there in 1980 after 4 years of Carter, and I sense some of the same mood. What distresses me, however, is news that 100 MILLION people in this country are on welfare of some sort. This DOES NOT include social security OR Medicare.
Think of it! ONE HUNDRED MILLION people collecting TANF, EITC, EBT, WICs, SNAP, SCHIP, Section 8, Obamaphones, utility assistance, and all the other likely dozens of programs. That is one high wall to surmount, even for sorely pissed off real working Americans that actually pay net taxes.
I just came back from Walmart with my wife. We hit the vegetable aisle and ran into two welfare b!tches yapping and blocking the aisle. As they saw us and separated one heiffer with three kids said to the other one “we have to stick together until November” The other asked what do you mean? “you know, the election”.
I later got behind the leech in checkout. She was remitting her WICs check and then clocked out with the EBT check card....not one damned dime. Able bodied women with too many kids, a husband that is too stupid to make more than $7/hour, and it is your’s and my responsibility to buy these kids’ food? I’ll pay for the rubbers or even a hysterectomy, but not anything else.
I’m just wondering if there are enough of people like me that are fed up to vote a stop to this insane fiscal bleeding.
RE: Post #25, I hope and pray that you’re right. The one thing that really concerns me is that this just isn’t the same country that it was in 1980 (and definately not in a positive direction).
I hate to sound like a Debbie Downer, but some days I fear there aren't enough of us to stop this crap, short of CW2 and enough non Communist states forming a new Republic.
had someone call about a rental. Stated she did not work but not to worry, she made as much money as she would if she were working. She laughed, and seemed proud of it.
She hasnt called back so I guess she found a better deal to spend our money.