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Obama now leads Romney by 11 among independents in new CNN and Fox News polls
Hotair ^ | 08/10/2012 | AllahPundit

Posted on 08/10/2012 7:22:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Don't focus on the topline numbers since it's hard to gauge how reliable they are. The Fox poll has O leading 49/40 based on a sample of D+9; last month he led 45/41 with a sample of just D+4. As for CNN, they've got Obama up 52/45 but provide no partisan breakdown with which to judge the sample.

What to do, then? Let's focus on the indies. CNN:

The margin of error increases for a subsample, as you can see, but that's a lot of cushion for the Unicorn Prince. No mystery where it's coming from, either: According to CNN, 52 percent of indies have an unfavorable view of Romney now compared to just 40 percent who had one in May. Fox sees a similar overall margin:

Lots of undecideds there, obviously, but the trendlines in Romney's favorables aren’t encouraging after a solid month of Bain-mania. CNN's and Fox's numbers, respectively:

Amazingly, The One's not paying much of a price yet for negativity. When asked if Romney has attacked Obama unfairly, the response is 44/50 between "has" and "has not." Obama's numbers are almost identical at 45/49, suggesting that perceptions on this question are still breaking along predictable party lines. Maybe that’ll change in the next week or two; this poll was conducted over the last few days, before the sleaze-tastic steelworker ad really started buzzing.

I don’t like the looks of either of these numbers, though:

Of the last four elections, only Clinton in 1996 had more lopsided numbers on that last question. (On the other hand, by a margin of 52/37, voters expected Gore to defeat Bush as of mid-September 2000.) Here’s the key question: Given that Romney and the constellation of conservative Super PACs have yet to really unload on O, there’s obviously going to be some movement in his numbers down the line just as there’s been movement in Romney’s numbers now after the Bain attacks. But how much? The two sides aren’t similarly situated; Romney’s an unknown quantity for most while Obama’s been the most famous man on the planet for four years. Not only does that make it harder for the GOP to define him than it was for him to define Mitt, but it gives O a much simpler task with regard to the shrinking pool of undecideds. Those people are already wary of reelecting him (that’s why they’re undecided), so they’re essentially Romney persuadables. Romney needs to persuade them, but all Obama needs to do is keep Romney on the defensive and keep the campaign dumb and nasty so that those persuadables stop caring and stay home. It’s incredibly cynical but it’s his best bet. If you believe these two polls, it’s working okay so far.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cnn; foxnews; obama; poll; rinoromney; romney; romney4romney; weakromney
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To: coconut47

the media also thought Kerry was going to also beat Bush

It’s what they HOPE will happen...the loony left and their whack agenda will be defeated again.


51 posted on 08/10/2012 8:18:11 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: montag813
FoxNews has Obama up by 9. But their poll sampled a ridiculous D+9

Almost all these polls are simply finding the population has shifted towards identifying as Democrat. It sucks, but virtually every poll is showing this to be the case. And with the rise of dependency, I see no reason to doubt that this is the trend line.

So why are we even discussing these?

Because they are telling us something important and ignoring it or listening to pie in the sky goofballs like Dick Morris isn't going to help. We are losing and there is a very good chance Hussein will be re-elected.

52 posted on 08/10/2012 8:26:53 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: SeekAndFind
They are all fake BS Polls. The Lame Stream Obama Media is trying to generate these fake polls so as to get Romney on the defense then scrutinize everything he says.

If the Lame Stream Media would break it down to the true party breakdown as with 2010 as the example it will be based on 34% Democrats, 32% Republican, 31% “Independents” and 3% others. Independents will break 15% for Romney over Obama and “others” will go all for Obama.

My election vote prediction will be 52.15% Romney to 47.85 to Obama. Romney will take over 280 Electoral Votes.

53 posted on 08/10/2012 8:28:10 AM PDT by tobyhill (Obamacare, the final nail in the US coffin.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Well when you offer the voters the same candidate on each side theyre going to go with the one they know the best..

The 2 guys running kinda blend...

Who knows where one starts and the other ends ???

The RNC never gave us a choice of candidates...

They failed to give us something different to consider...

What are we suppose to do with bookends ???

Your bad, GOP-e...


54 posted on 08/10/2012 8:31:55 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana (Why should I vote for Bishop Romney when he hates me because I am a Christian)
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To: SeekAndFind

55 posted on 08/10/2012 8:32:50 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: SeekAndFind

Wonder what the real polls say.


56 posted on 08/10/2012 8:35:25 AM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: pabianice

The Beav: “Eddie Haskell made me do it!”


57 posted on 08/10/2012 8:46:36 AM PDT by Polyxene (Out of the depths I have cried to Thee, O Lord; Lord, hear my voice.)
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To: barmag25
Has there ever been a presidential election poll that matched the vote? Has there ever been a poll showing the Republican ahead, even in races in which the GOP won? Ever? Have they ever shown a poll with the R candidate doing better than even? Have the polls ever been wrong in the Republican's favor?

The Dem pollsters know we are on to their oversampling of Democrats scam. Now they are reduced to outright lying.

58 posted on 08/10/2012 8:54:35 AM PDT by sportutegrl
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To: SeekAndFind

Let’s face it, Romney doens’t have a chance unless he starts bringing the fight to Obama. Sitting back and criticizing Obama for his nasty rants won’t get it done. Obama has a terrible record that is fertile ground for Romney. Maybe the fix is in and Romney just coninues to be fodder for the RATS.


59 posted on 08/10/2012 9:00:28 AM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: The Wizard

Ultimately, I believe, we get what we deserve. The American people have been so corrupted that an honest person wouldn’t stand a chance running for high office. If any of the Founding Fathers ran for national office today, they’d get trounced. The American people have been corrupted with hand-outs and they are woefully ignorant of basic economics and our founding principles. Over the past few months, I defriended numerous Facebook friends for their liberal rantings. I’ve had it with stupid people.


60 posted on 08/10/2012 9:01:40 AM PDT by huckfillary (qual tyo ta)
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To: SeekAndFind

To all the hand-wringing panty wetters on this forum:

1. It’s early August.
2. There have been no conventions yet.
3. Stop being a bunch of vajayjays.


61 posted on 08/10/2012 9:10:39 AM PDT by Hazwaste (Democrats are like slinkies. Only good for pushing down stairs.)
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To: tsowellfan
"Obama hasn't even touched on ---"

Agreed.

What the One has thrown at Miff has only been kids play to this point. We have not yet seen the Granny over the cliff or starving women and children attack ads. Lies repeated often enough become perceived as the truth, and Miff nor the GOPe have the brass ones to fight back against the Chicago thugs.

With assistance from the MSM, the Rats are poised to increase their EV margin, increase their count in the Senate, and retake the House.

Miff was relying on not being Obama as being enough to win. The polls, flawed as they maybe, are starting to show otherwise.

62 posted on 08/10/2012 9:12:54 AM PDT by buckalfa (Nabob of Negativity)
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To: SeekAndFind

Negative campaigning works, and yes, so does outright lying, especially when a complacent MSM wont call you on it.


63 posted on 08/10/2012 9:23:26 AM PDT by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: Red Badger

That’s wise, IMO.


64 posted on 08/10/2012 9:30:20 AM PDT by CatherineofAragon (Time for a write-in campaign...Darryl Dixon for President)
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To: huckfillary

Anyone who believes these polls is delusional.


65 posted on 08/10/2012 9:46:01 AM PDT by Eva (Eee)
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To: SeekAndFind

Short version. First, it’s the economy stupid. Second, a voting booth is vastly different than a random phone survey, so I think polls (all of them) overstate Obama’s support by 5-10% because they don’t want to appear “RACIST”. Last, I refuse to believe a majority of American’s are stupid. Obama’s many failures have touched every voter (directly or indirectly) and he will be held to account.


66 posted on 08/10/2012 10:01:22 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: buckalfa

Depressing. I know this election cycle is a roller coaster ride, but I’m not feeling confident at all.


67 posted on 08/10/2012 10:17:25 AM PDT by skinndogNN
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To: SeekAndFind

The tribe of blood-libelers and self-loathers who control our media (Fox *not* excepted) are just making sure of a win-win for their side.

As if Mittens isn’t leftist enough, fabricated data such as this which show that so-called “moderates” and “independents” are moving away from Romney will cause him to do what? Move *further* to the left (is that even possible?).

On the bright side, the fact that they need to heavily oversample Democrats or add other “special sauce” to the formula in order to get the numbers they want reflects what we all know anyway: that their beloved President is highly unpopular with everyone aside from the most deluded plantation slaves.


68 posted on 08/10/2012 10:17:39 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

i pray everyday that obama get defeated and booted out of office. I can’t take another 4 yrs of this


69 posted on 08/10/2012 12:04:48 PM PDT by coconut47
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To: coconut47
I can’t take another 4 yrs of this

Amen, brother.

70 posted on 08/10/2012 12:14:55 PM PDT by windsorknot
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To: RetiredArmy
Floods, severe drought are main elements that God uses to get a nation's attention when He calls them to repentance. We have been warned.

Do you really think electing someone just as morally corrupt as Romney will prevent God from judging the nation?

71 posted on 08/10/2012 12:38:04 PM PDT by Kazan (Mitt Romney: The greater of two evils)
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To: skinndogNN

what do you think will happen in November?


72 posted on 08/10/2012 2:03:53 PM PDT by Reagan95
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To: Reagan95

What do I think will happen in November?

What I think is the MSM(Left) has way too much power to influence the weak minded people in the middle.

If Romney does win, I will consider it quite a feat. He has so many powerful forces pulling against him. Am I optimistic, NO, but I’m hoping for a Republican win in the House, Senate, and Presidency.


73 posted on 08/10/2012 2:19:48 PM PDT by skinndogNN
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To: Little Ray

I’ll vote for Romney because:

“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”


74 posted on 08/10/2012 5:30:03 PM PDT by Kenny
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To: Kazan
One person does not matter. It is the entire nation that God is judging. Not just one individual. One person's wickedness does not sink everyone. But, when a nation such as ours which was founded on Godly principles and the Bible turns to allowing homosexual marriages and abortion murders, yup, darn tooten God is judging this nation for its wickedness. You bet cha.
75 posted on 08/10/2012 6:12:04 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (If you cannot read the sign of the times, I suggest you read the Scriptures. They are CLEAR!)
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