Skip to comments.So how did that Ryan pick work out? (A look at the numbers)
Posted on 08/17/2012 7:08:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Today marks one full week since presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney named Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate in the battle of 2012. Trying to figure out precisely what effect this is having on the race seems to be an increasingly difficult task for the traditional media, who largely perform their research on such things by asking each other for dueling, ten second sound bites. With so little to go on, perhaps we should turn to our old friend mathematics. Today, Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades released a memo bring everyone up to date on some of the key campaign figures over the past week.
First up ... donations.
The Obama campaign doesn't seem to release their fundraising numbers on such a granular level these days, but if there had been some sort of massive, anti-Ryan backlash flood of donations I think Axlerod or Cutter would have let us know by now.
How's Mitt faring in the social media and web world since the Ryan announcement?
You can go out on all the Sunday shows and spin the headlines however you like, but that’s got to be a pretty encouraging set of numbers for America’s Comeback Team. But what explains them in terms of the reality on the ground? If Paul Ryan is so scary and radical, where is this surge of support coming from?
Kirsten Powers thinks she may have the answer. She seems to believe that younger voters of Ryan’s era – which she calls “Generation Screwed” – are open to his message of long term solutions.
Unfortunately, the future looks as bleak for todays young people. No amount of coddling by their well-provided-for Boomer parents can save Generation Y and the Millennials from the dire economic conditions they face, including criminal levels of educational debt. Pensions have gone the way of the horse and buggy. You want to retire with health-care benefits, as both my professor parents did? Good luck. As the 1994 movie turned Gen-X mantra has it: Reality Bites…
A Zogby/JZ Analytics poll Tuesday showed increased support among voters 18-29 for the Romney ticket, which pollster John Zogby attributed to the Ryan pick. President Obama received just 49 percent of the youth vote, versus Romneys 41 percent. (Obama took home 66 percent of the youth vote against McCain in 2008.)
81 days to go. The convention is only a little more than a week away. Let’s get a batch of popcorn going, folks. Things are just starting to get interesting.
Update (Ed): It’s 81 days to go, not 88. I’ve fixed it above, and here’s a handy countdown clock:
Facts don’t matter. The pick of Biden hurt Obama in the polls, the pick of Palin helped McCain in the polls. I even joked on FR right after the election that they will try and convince us that Palin hurt the ticket. It was so laughable I took some heat for it. Now its repeated as fact over and over again in any article about picking a VP.
If Romney loses it will not be because he was a rino that did not attract enough support from the conservative base-it will be because Ryan was a horrible pick of an ideologue and the GOP must moderate.
New Peter Gabriel song in 5....4....3....2....
Intrade line up 4 pts. since the Ryan pick.
President Axelrod and his minions are hard at work trying to invent a bimbo or racist connection to Ryan. Remember what happened to Cain?
Speaking the truth.
Man, FR is abou the only place the truth exists these days.
Remember that show “Jericho”.....While I’d never wish that horror on any nation, a government functioning out of Cheyanne (sp?) would likely be much better than D.C.
That's lovely but irrelevant. The meaningful question is: How do those numbers compare with the week before Ryan was announced? I'm not saying Ryan was a bad choice - he's an amazingly capable choice that I would not have expected from Romney. These numbers just don't tell us whether the Ryan pick is actually helping. For that, Intrade is probably the best current information - so, yes, the Ryan pick is working so far.
Except every sign points to an INCREASE in the Romney support as the base coalesces around him as was planned.
What many don't understand is Romney is a very, very successful business man and one thing a successful business must have is the ability to think both tactically and strategically. In the case of Ryan as his VP choice he has done both as it generated an instant charge to the campaign which the Left has been unable to diffuse. This is the tactical reason for the choice.
Strategically, the hoped for and I believe realized effect will be to carry the torch for reform in our quickly failing Social programs.
I don't know for sure of course who will win in Nov. At least not now but I do believe Ryan was not just a good choice but a brilliant one.
It would be helpful to know the actual cash increase in this week after the pick of Ryan, versus the previous week or the same week in the previous month.
Do we know the average after his pick of Ryan?
I haven’t seen anything official. I do recall hearing a report that the Romney campaign raised over $3 million in the 24 hours after the naming of Ryan. If that’s true, then the pick is a wash WRT the previous month’s daily average.
I would say, that's lovely but irrelevant. If those Facebookers are interested or even supportive of Ryan, that's fine, but if they're from Georgia, South Carolina, and Wyoming, they aren't important. The Presidency is won or lost in the Electoral College. Activity on Facebook and Twitter (which BTW is really a medium only for real wonks) does not translate into Electoral College votes.
They raised something like 7 million online on that weekend.
Prior to that, Romney’s large numbers had been coming from big money donors and fundraisers, not online small donations. So it is a big bump, because they weren’t raising anywhere near that amount online.
I believe the point well made is the obama campaign has had no comment on how the Ryan choice has impacted their own fund raising. Had it caused any increase whatsoever it would have led every news cast of the lib networks.
Similar numbers were rung up when Palin was announced as VP candidate in 2008, and she was unable to drag a lackluster top of the ticket into the winners circle.
>> Remember what happened to Cain?
Fortunately, Ryan is not a horndog with Clintonesque appetites like Cain was (is?).
RE: and she was unable to drag a lackluster top of the ticket into the winners circle.
OK, I’ll bite, if this suggests that Paul Ryan might not be able to drag a lackluster Romney into the winner’s circle, WHO CAN?
Or are you saying that as long as Romney’s the POTUS candidate, the GOP cannot win?
As Don Meredith used to sing “Turn out the lights, the party’s over”.
If anyone can it's going to be the "anybody but Obama" voters. Romney will reap the benefits of their discontent solely because he is the only other real candidate.
I would say Pollster1’s question of “ The meaningful question is: How do those numbers compare with the week before Ryan was announced?” is quite relevant.
I took the plus sign next to some of the numbers as an indication that the number was an increase over last week. If this is true, the increase in donations seems to be significant.
However for a true comparison Pollster1’s question should be answered in full, to whit: Compare all these numbers to any gains seen before the Ryan pick, and compare in terms of percent gain.
I don’t have the time right now but maybe later.
well then - is this relevent enough for you?
Since ‘the pick’ - a 17% UPTICK for R&R in FLORIDA - the Senior Citizen state.
What YOU said - all of it.
Romney is a tried and true successful business man - that includes the ability to pick the right people for the right position - AND at the right time.
It was BRILLINAT to announce his pick a week BEFORE convention, not AT the convention.
This has resulted in a fire storm of publicity - and has energized the base while waking up the general public.
Then, before the feathers settle, comes the convention...FAr greater numbers will now watch -
Also, his picking Ryan over a gender/ethnic/crucial state pick shows he has the smarts to place the right people in the right postion. That bodes well for who he puts into his cabinet.
We may just be able to stop this Scoialist/Muslim trainwreck afterall
R&R = Restoration & Recovery
17% of registered voters in the state of Florida say they will change who they will vote for in the election for President as a result of Mitt Romneys selection of Paul Ryan . . . Of those who will change their vote, 57% say they are more likely to vote for Romney, 42% say they are less likely to vote for Romney.
If you take those surveyed at their word (and I don't - how many firmly decided voters say that every event makes them "more likely to vote for" the option they have already chosen?), that is a net gain of 15% of the 17% who claim to have changed their opinions, or 2.5%. That is, as Clueless Joe would say, a big deal, but it's not a 17% uptick. When we get the next reliable poll of FL voters, we'll find out what this really means. I'm hopeful, but I don't expect the numbers from Rasmussen, Gallup, or anyone else to actually show 17% or even 2.55%. I'd take a change of 1.5% and call that a big win.
I don’t rely on the ‘polls’ - which we know can be easily skewed - and are - as well as over sampled with dems -
I’ll take these REAL and VERIFIABLE stats at to what has happened in the past few days. They tell quite a story - and they are the FACTS.
Online Fundraising for R&R
Average Donation: $81
% New Donors: 68%
the social media and web world since the Ryan announcement?
Site Traffic Total: 2,000,000
Mitt Romney Facebook: +510,000 Now 4,360,000
Mitt Romney Twitter: +54,000 Now 861,000
Paul Ryan Facebook: +860,000
Paul Ryan Twitter: +118,500
Volunteers 45,000+ sign up to volunteer online
all the naysayrs and twisters can put that in their pipes and smoke it - it’s what’s going down. No way to spin it.