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Tropical Storm Isaac
NOAA/NHC ^ | 22 August 2012 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/22/2012 1:47:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Isaac threatens to dampen the Republican National Convention Monday in Tampa, Florida. National media outlets are having a grand time anticipating a Grand Old Party washout. Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn (D) announced Wednesday that he is absolutely prepared to call off the convention next week, with anticipated attendance of 70,000 delegates, party officials, journalists, protesters and others. Buckhorn has not indicated that he would attempt to mitigate liberal protests or a hastily planned Joe "Plugs" Biden visit to Tampa during the convention.

Time will tell. Stay tuned...


Sea Surface Temps


Public Advisories

NHC Tropical Discussions

Satellite Images

Buoy Data:
Caribbean W. Carib and Florida

Radar:
Puerto Rico Gitmo, Cuba, Key West & Tampa Bay


TOPICS: Extended News; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012rncconvention; isaac; rnc; storm; tropical; tropicalstorm
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To: All

501 posted on 08/28/2012 2:30:02 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated)
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To: NautiNurse

Serious question for the thread.

Is The Weather Channel guilty of massive over-hype on this storm? Could they be accused of incessantly yelling “hurricane” and trying to panic everyone?

How close are they to the classic definition of unprotected speech - “falsely shouting fire in a crowded theater”?


502 posted on 08/28/2012 2:30:59 AM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: abb

Abb, you know as well as anyone a storm can be very undecided as to what it will do. It could stall and build, change last minute direction, anything could happen when it comes to tropical weather. back in the early 80’s, they downplayed Alicia as a minimal storm and basicly just a rain maker. Well that sure changed didn’t it.So I really don’t mind the hype .


503 posted on 08/28/2012 3:02:48 AM PDT by eastforker (Don't be ornery for Romney, instead Root for Newt!)
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To: eastforker

Thank you, I feel the same way... Too much hype better than no hype...


504 posted on 08/28/2012 3:07:40 AM PDT by DrewsMum
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To: eastforker

Thank you, I feel the same way... Too much hype better than no hype...


505 posted on 08/28/2012 3:08:05 AM PDT by DrewsMum
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To: abb
Over the years, there have been plenty of raised eyebrows around here for catastrophic cable news coverage and Armageddon storm predictions that would simultaneously increase the number of viewers, and enhance advertising revenue.

Time will tell whether my old, reliable tropical storm resource wunderground.com succumbs to Weather Channel hype following their acquisition July 2012.

506 posted on 08/28/2012 3:17:20 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: abb; All
Serious question for the thread.

Is The Weather Channel guilty of massive over-hype on this storm? Could they be accused of incessantly yelling “hurricane” and trying to panic everyone?

How close are they to the classic definition of unprotected speech - “falsely shouting fire in a crowded theater”?

( Geez, my HTML Skilz are rusty...)

It's what they do to sell their product- weather. Here on the coast every TV station flies a reporter & crew to wherever whatever storm is coming so they can film them blowing around in wind & rain.

It has always looked kind of foolish to me- but it's what they do.

507 posted on 08/28/2012 3:31:10 AM PDT by backhoe (Just a Merry-Hearted Keyboard Pirate Boy, plunderin' his way across the InterToobs)
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To: abb

storm surge kills.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge


508 posted on 08/28/2012 3:51:35 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Isaac moving slowly...still a Tropical Storm

105 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River
185 mi SSE of Biloxi, MS
Moving NW at 7mph
Sustained winds 70mph, 976mb
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

509 posted on 08/28/2012 4:58:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse
Joe Bastardi tweet:

"Data buoy 42363 had sustained 62kts at 4 am. You trying to tell me that this doesnt have hurricane winds around it somewhere?"

510 posted on 08/28/2012 5:02:39 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: alancarp

511 posted on 08/28/2012 5:09:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: alancarp

The path has it hitting L just west of New Orleans, putting NO on the strong side of the storm. Hopefully most of the intelligent people have left NO by now.


512 posted on 08/28/2012 5:23:05 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (A deep-fried storm is coming, Mr Obama.)
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To: NautiNurse

The big drop in forward speed is not good news. This means one of two things:

1. (Most likely) It stays on current course and pounds the coast for 24-48 hours (or more)

or

2. It is getting ready to change direction (possibly to a more northerly course).

Most of the models have predicted #1 with only a couple outliers predicting #2.


513 posted on 08/28/2012 5:27:17 AM PDT by commish (Freedom tastes sweetest to those who have fought to preserve it.)
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To: NautiNurse
seems to be stalling

will obama break down?

let's hope it becomes the storm that never happens

.

514 posted on 08/28/2012 5:33:57 AM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: All

This is Wellington, Fl....they have been stuck in their homes for over 2 days...

515 posted on 08/28/2012 6:16:38 AM PDT by Fawn (DEAR JESUS....PLEASE LET OBAMA LOSE.....AMEN.)
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To: Elle Bee; commish

Right: mentioned yesterday that the Euro model had the thing thrashing the coastline for at least 24 hours before getting a foothold inland. This is not good at all, and will severely test the levees, pumps, and everything else.... no matter what the wind speeds end up at.


516 posted on 08/28/2012 6:31:23 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: alancarp

Saw video clip yesterday of workers covering a bare earthen levee with plastic sheeting, weighed down with sporadic sandbags. Eeesh.


517 posted on 08/28/2012 6:36:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: alancarp

Last evening’s Euro run now has landfall quite a bit west - west of Morgan City even - then pushing further west as it encounters the coast. However, it now looks to be the ‘outlier’ as almost every other model brings it in tonight within 25 miles of the center of NO.... at the current speed of 7-8 mph.


518 posted on 08/28/2012 6:40:07 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: alancarp
Way to ruin a party for the obama base:

What began as a simple going-away party on Barracks Street in 1972 has evolved into one of New Orleans' premier yearly events: Southern Decadence. Held annually in the French Quarter over Labor Day weekend, this celebration of GLBT (gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender) culture has begun attracting as many as 125,000-135,000 participants from all over the world in recent years.

.

519 posted on 08/28/2012 6:41:31 AM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: NautiNurse

If I were behind that levee.... I’m leaving!


520 posted on 08/28/2012 6:43:19 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: alancarp
Detailed Map of LA.

http://www.louisiana-map.org/louisiana-map.jpg

521 posted on 08/28/2012 6:52:27 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: alancarp
The GFS Model Run from 14 hours ago indicated a direct hit over the top of NOLA in 36 hours... i.e., 7AM CDT tomorrow morning. That would be near a high tide, but the tide changes are not significant on the Gulf Coast... maybe a foot higher than low tide - nothing more.
522 posted on 08/28/2012 6:56:05 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: TornadoAlley3
Good map - it still amazes me that there are so many roads and towns out on all that 'squishy' delta land.

Saw a NOAA observation post down past Pilottown (just as far to the south and east as you can get on that map) indicating 22 KT sustained winds.

I keep harping on it, but if this is truly a 976 mb storm, then I can't understand the apparent reluctance to go ahead and declare Isaac a hurricane. Doesn't make sense to me - especially with multiple recon reports indicating that the wind speeds are there. I'm not about hype, but I am concerned about public safety, and if that word "hurricane" makes people take care of themselves better, then let's save a few lives.

523 posted on 08/28/2012 7:03:29 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: alancarp
More evidence (the top line is the important one):


524 posted on 08/28/2012 7:10:35 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: alancarp; All
Louisiana Refinery Map and Other Infrastructure

http://dnr.louisiana.gov/assets/images/oilgas/refineries/LA_Other_Facilities_rev031808.jpg

525 posted on 08/28/2012 7:22:09 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: alancarp

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29 Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on August 28, 2012

reports from the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
the central pressure has dropped a little more...but so far...the
maximum flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds still do not
quite support hurricane intensity.

The current intensity is held
at 60 kt pending additional observations from the hurricane
hunters. Although the wind field remains rather broad and
relatively flat...recent aircraft data suggest that the maximum
winds are now occurring somewhat closer to the center over the
northern semicircle of the cyclone. This would suggest that the
inner core circulation is becoming better defined...and
strengthening might be imminent.

Upper-level outflow is
well-established over the southern semicircle of the system...but
central convection continues to fluctuate. The latter is
presumably due to a continued intrusion of dry air into the core
region.

The statistical-dynamical guidance is a little lower than
in previous runs...and the storm has only about 12-24 hours before
moving inland. The official intensity forecast is just slightly
lower than the previous one.

Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that the storm has wobbled
on a generally westward course over the past few hours. This is
believed to be temporary...however...and the longer-term motion
estimate is about 305/10. The current and forecast steering regime
are basically the same as in the previous package.

Isaac is
expected to move into a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the
north-central Gulf Coast...with some slowing of forward speed
during the next couple of days as a ridge builds a little to the
northwest of the cyclone. Later on...the system should turn
northward and northeastward into the Ohio Valley region as it moves
around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone.

Isaac is a large tropical cyclone. A dangerous storm surge...heavy
rainfall...and strong winds extend well away from the center and
are expected to affect a large portion of the northern Gulf Coast.
For this reason...it is important not to focus on the exact center
location. The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding is also
expected to spread inland over the lower Mississippi Valley region
during the next few days.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 28/0900z 27.5n 88.1w 60 kt 70 mph
12h 28/1800z 28.5n 89.1w 70 kt 80 mph
24h 29/0600z 29.5n 90.1w 75 kt 85 mph...near the coast
36h 29/1800z 30.3n 90.9w 55 kt 65 mph...inland
48h 30/0600z 31.4n 91.5w 45 kt 50 mph...inland
72h 31/0600z 34.5n 92.5w 25 kt 30 mph...inland
96h 01/0600z 38.0n 91.5w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h 02/0600z 40.5n 87.0w 15 kt 15 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

$$
forecaster Pasch
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201209.disc.html#yISqTOl93QS27C8Z.99


526 posted on 08/28/2012 7:29:24 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: abb; mickie; flaglady47; seekthetruth; seenenuf; NautiNurse; Bob Ireland; JulieRNR21; Chigirl 26; ..
"Is the Weather Channel guilty of massive over-hype on this storm?"

All media relies on the National Weather Service for the data it broadcasts and/or publishes.

Guess what! The National Weather Service is a part of and under the jurisdiction of the federal Department of Commerce.

The Department's former head was Obama appointee, Secretary of Commerce, John Bryson. He is notable because of his recent involvement in a pair of consecutive car crashes which were investigated as possible felony hit and run.

Bryson resigned, to be replaced by Obama appointee, Acting Secretary Rebecca Blank. She's a leftist academic hack with a poverty pimp background who is in the same ideological mold of all the lefty appointees and czars of the commie Obama.

So, it's no surprise that the bulletins and data provided virtually minute-by-minute by the National Weather Service would be POLITICIZED, showing weather conditions designed in various clever (and false) ways to frighten the organizers and attendees at the GOP convention. Rush devoted an entire segment to this very fact yesterday.

This is what the Left does. Its tentacles are everywhere, and its disciples, adherents, bureaucrats and stooge media will always carry out their propaganda duties faithfully, including pimping the weather.

Leni

527 posted on 08/28/2012 7:36:27 AM PDT by MinuteGal
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To: TornadoAlley3

Yeah - saw that: apparently they can’t read their own data. The primary purpose for the NHC is public safety. I don’t get this... it’s been a hurricane for 24 hours now.


528 posted on 08/28/2012 7:37:34 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: MinuteGal

John Coleman’s vision (twc) has been turned into nothing more than a bimbo erupted storm chasing piece of trash.


529 posted on 08/28/2012 7:53:47 AM PDT by catfish1957 (My dream for hope and change is to see the punk POTUS in prison for treason)
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To: NautiNurse

We are lucky this storm is not 125 mph.
I just talked to a friend in NC near Wilmington and they are getting feeder bands there,hard to imagine.


530 posted on 08/28/2012 8:01:34 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin 2012)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Tropical Storm Isaac 11AM Update
80 mi SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River
165 mi SE of New Orleans LA
Max sustained winds 70mph, 976mb
Moving NW at 10mph


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

531 posted on 08/28/2012 8:05:20 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

There is absolutely NO WAY this storm is still 70 MPH tropical storm.

Every indicator out there scream 80 MPH plus hurricane — 976 MB central pressure, flight level winds in excess of 80 Knots, closed eye structure now on SAT and radar.

Yet NHC REFUSES to upgrade it.

Are they afraid they might have to call the poser in cheap off the Golf Course if they do?????


532 posted on 08/28/2012 8:18:26 AM PDT by commish (Freedom tastes sweetest to those who have fought to preserve it.)
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To: commish
There is a lot of dry air wrapped into the core.


533 posted on 08/28/2012 8:30:41 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: rodguy911

Definitely a strange storm. Florida Atlantic coast was hammered by fierce squalls and tornadoes yesterday, while the Gulf coast had sporadic showers, and a couple of brief twisters.


534 posted on 08/28/2012 8:47:01 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: All

535 posted on 08/28/2012 8:51:32 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse

http://14300stream.homeip.net:88/broadwave.asx?src=1&rate=0

Amateur Radio Hurricane Watch Net


536 posted on 08/28/2012 8:52:26 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: NautiNurse
Newest GFS model shows Isaac going toward Morgan City - slowing down even more (getting there around noon local time Wednesday). That's about 40-50 miles west of the run made just 12 hours ago - but now agrees with the Euro model.
537 posted on 08/28/2012 8:55:23 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: alancarp
Issac is getting his act together and could gain strength quickly. Slowed to 6 or 7 mph, with a 6-12 ft storm surge and up to 20 inches of rain in isolated areas. He could go from TS to Cat 2 by the time they report him as a hurricane:)
538 posted on 08/28/2012 9:02:26 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: commish

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/isaac2012/wind.html


539 posted on 08/28/2012 9:06:13 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: commish
Latest tweet from Joe Bastardi about the aircraft data coming in:
"Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 28.1 88.5 974.1 mb pressure"

There are multiple sources for this info that are all in agreement, but I'll use this one, 'cause the formatting is easier:

Category Two Hurricane


540 posted on 08/28/2012 9:09:03 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
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To: NautiNurse

I don’t listen to the weather channel! I listen to NautiNurse!!


541 posted on 08/28/2012 9:11:57 AM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: NautiNurse

The entire northwest and western side is sucking dry air from Louisiana and Texas. I think it is too much for Isaac to overcome (not that I am complaining). If it weren’t so slow moving, this could be a non-event. I suspect it has not been upgraded due to this dry air and the havoc it has created for organization. Now that it is organizing a bit, perhaps they will upgrade it. This is odd as they have been quick to upgrade everything for years to raise the storm count in support of Global Warming.


542 posted on 08/28/2012 9:17:22 AM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: All
New Hurricane Isaac Thread
543 posted on 08/28/2012 9:30:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Ingtar

YOu may be right. With the pressures it is showing, if it gets the eye completely closed off and expels the dry air we could see it go from TS to CAT II quite quickly.

Hopefully that won’t happen, but right now we have a struggling 70 MPH system (according to NHC) with pressure readouts that support a 95-100 MPH storm.


544 posted on 08/28/2012 9:31:41 AM PDT by commish (Freedom tastes sweetest to those who have fought to preserve it.)
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