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Colorado Algorithm Predicts a Romney Triumph
Tea Party Tribune ^ | 2012-08-24 15:39:07 | mrcurmudgeon

Posted on 08/25/2012 5:24:34 AM PDT by morethanright

By Mr. Curmudgeon:

Computers at the University of Colorado have crunched data from all fifty states and are picking a winner in the 2012 presidential race - Republican Mitt Romney. Before you dismiss the computer's binary conclusion as wishful thinking, the same program has accurately predicted presidential winners beginning with Ronald Reagan's stunning and satisfying victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980. If that is not impressive enough for you, the program also predicted that in the election of 2000, Al Gore would win the popular vote but lose to George W. Bush in the Electoral College.

If you happen to reside in a swing state (I live in Florida), you cannot help but notice President Obama's campaign commercials are shrill and, well, a tad panicky. One pro-Obama spot asks me, in effect, to hate Romney because he pays an 18% capital gains tax rate. I just wish the Republican Party would come out for an18% flat tax to jump-start our dying economy. Given enough time, however, the Tea Party will oust enough RINOs that it won't be too long before a flat tax becomes a key issue for the so-called "conservative" party.

Back at the University of Colorado, political science professor Michael Berry, co-creator of the presidential-predicting software, stated, "The president is in electoral trouble," but he threw Obama a bone. "The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office," said Berry, "What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it's the former, the president may receive credit for the economy's trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008."

It falls to Obama's media boosters to convince America's unemployed, the masses upside-down on their mortgage and facing foreclosure, the dwindling middle-class and those newly added to the welfare rolls that the greatest economic calamity since the Great Depression is really a "sluggish recovery."

Just in case you've been living under a rock the past few weeks, here's a news update: Thanks to the efforts of the world's big-government stimulators, we are entering a global recession. "2 percent [U.S.] growth is not a recovery," says CNBC host Larry Kudlow, "Many economists would call it a growth recession. When you get that low, there's little margin for error. A shock from Europe ... or almost any unexpected event could push us back into negative territory for an official double-dip recession."

For team Obama, happy days are not here again.

 

Article shared using the Free Republish tool on Tea Party Tribune.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; intrade; obama; romney; teapartytribune

1 posted on 08/25/2012 5:24:39 AM PDT by morethanright
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To: morethanright

Intrade still has Obama ahead. Pick your seer.


2 posted on 08/25/2012 5:25:38 AM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: saganite

But for all this, does the Senate manage to get turned over to other than Harry Reid’s control?

Or is that jack-Mormon going to continue to be the dog in the manger that prevents any substantial improvement in the now dismal economic and spiritual state of this country?

If this country once again embraces the foolish notion that the “wealthy” can be taxed sufficiently to significantly reverse the national decline, then its future as a single nation is very much in jeopardy. There are definite fracture lines already, and it will not take much to just pull the pin.

It would be like the 9/11 collapse of the World Trade Center extended over much of the nation. Going to be an awful lot of smoke and dust, and ENORMOUS collateral damage.


3 posted on 08/25/2012 5:36:08 AM PDT by alloysteel (Voter suppression is needed now more than ever. Only, whom shall be suppressed?)
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To: morethanright

One can only hope — but have they taken into account all the dead and illegal votes that will be cast for Obama?


4 posted on 08/25/2012 5:47:05 AM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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5 posted on 08/25/2012 6:00:09 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: morethanright

Does it have Obama ahead inn MO or not?


6 posted on 08/25/2012 6:02:16 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: morethanright

Colorado Algorithm Predicts a Romney Triumph

My subconscious tells me it’s going to be a romp for Romney, even if we all have to hold our nose when we vote.


7 posted on 08/25/2012 6:13:51 AM PDT by chainsaw ("Two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.")
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To: morethanright

In Boulder, had he not said something nice about Obama the next bones thrown might have been his own.

Any prediction or poll at this time is meaningless. Sorry.

Regardless of how many cores or Al Gore-ithms...


8 posted on 08/25/2012 6:36:48 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: morethanright
"Given enough time, however, the Tea Party will oust enough RINOs that it won't be too long before a flat tax becomes a key issue for the so-called "conservative" party." ~

Looks kinda' inconsistent with the views expressed in numerous threads yesterday that the TEAParty will be better off WITHOUT the Socons holding them back.

Hmmm ~ does the algorithm deal with that sort of thing? Like, give up 40% of the vote which is Conservative so you can get rid of the RINOs?

9 posted on 08/25/2012 6:51:02 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: morethanright

If anyone saw Hannity’s Fox News show last night you will be very encouraged about WHAT IS NOT BEING SAID in this election cycle. Hannity highlighted a documentary “The Hope The Change” that is also coming out in theatres (and they are close to securing a major tv deal) where they show all the hype and excitement of the Obama 2008 campaign.

It includes extensive interviews of registered independents and democrats who voted for Obama and discuss why they will not be voting for Obama in 2012. Many of the statements made included that they simply got caught up in the hype.


10 posted on 08/25/2012 7:15:39 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: saganite

The people betting on intrade are mostly Europeans. I believe that putting money there is illegal in most states.


11 posted on 08/25/2012 7:22:15 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Hotlanta Mike

Many of the statements made included that they simply got caught up in the hype.

**
saw that last night and wanted to reach out and slap some of those silly people for NOT doing the research and going along so much by EMOTION.

This just seems to be how Stupid Sheep America operates. Just flash something shiny in front of them and they follow like a bunch of blind morons.


12 posted on 08/25/2012 7:22:57 AM PDT by LibsRJerks
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To: morethanright

Colorado Algorithm Predicts a Romney Triumph....if we have an election in Nov. 2012.


13 posted on 08/25/2012 7:58:26 AM PDT by A. Patriot (Re-electing Obama is like the Titanic backing up to hit the iceberg again.)
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To: BarnacleCenturion

Europeans or not, they stand to lose money if they are wrong. I don’t believe even Europeans are so far gone they dont respect money.


14 posted on 08/25/2012 8:12:35 AM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: saganite

Intrade still has Obama ahead. Pick your seer.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I like the theory of Intrade. However, it can easily be, and likely is, gamed.

Obama supporters are very aware of Intrade, and are likely dumping $1000’s and $1000’s of dollars in to help perpetuate the myth that he is “leading”. This is cheap for their campaign, similar to buying ad spots. Intrade must be loving it.


15 posted on 08/25/2012 8:13:42 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: morethanright

Technically this model hasn’t predicted anything, since it was made after 2008. It retroactively matches the elections, just like global warming models are always tweaked to “predict” past data.


16 posted on 08/25/2012 8:29:16 AM PDT by Sloth (If a tax break counts as "spending" then every time I don't rob a bank should be a "deposit.")
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To: saganite

Intrade also said the mandate was going to be struck down.


17 posted on 08/25/2012 9:03:28 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: chainsaw
My subconscious tells me it’s going to be a romp for Romney, even if we all have to hold our nose when we vote.

I'm thinking likewise. It's reminiscent of the Carter/Reagan election where Reagan trailed a recession/depression plagued president only to win in a landslide.

18 posted on 08/25/2012 9:03:33 AM PDT by randog (Tap into America!)
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To: Shadow44

Bettors have an infinitely greater amount of information to judge the direction of an election than the outcome of a SC case.


19 posted on 08/25/2012 9:07:12 AM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: Eccl 10:2

I’ve seen that on Intrade and IEM—what’s it called, “pump and dump”? Jack the price of the stock up and dump at the last minute.


20 posted on 08/25/2012 9:07:21 AM PDT by randog (Tap into America!)
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To: randog

I’ve seen that on Intrade and IEM—what’s it called, “pump and dump”? Jack the price of the stock up and dump at the last minute.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I think a Romney win on Intrade is a bargain. Not a certainty, of course, but a bargain. Basically 5-2 odds - bid 2 to make 5. Might be worth a sizable bet, IMHO.


21 posted on 08/25/2012 9:24:37 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: Hotlanta Mike

Be nice if a Super PAC would pay for this to air all over.


22 posted on 08/25/2012 10:16:45 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: chainsaw
I suspect so as well. Total Romney blowout. No one’s life has gotten better and people have just had it. More of the same is going to solve things? yeah, right.
23 posted on 08/25/2012 12:25:32 PM PDT by warsaw44
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To: morethanright
Don't believe a computer can do a man's job.
24 posted on 08/25/2012 2:52:17 PM PDT by mcleodglen
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To: Sloth; saganite; morethanright; alloysteel; onyx; muawiyah; bigbob; BarnacleCenturion; Eccl 10:2
Technically this model hasn't predicted anything, since it was made after 2008. It retroactively matches the elections, just like global warming models are always tweaked to “predict” past data.

Very good observation - it's just a back-testing "fitting" model.

Here are better, more realistic ones.

From Fighting False Promises - B, by Thomas Donlan, 2012 August 18

Everybody understands that the race will be tight / close and focused mostly on a handful of EC states, more similar to 2000 and 2004 elections, which Bush nearly lost despite having dull, unexciting opponents and with the economy and other voters' concerns hugely favoring him both times.

Here is the "Excitement Factor" table for elections since 1976:

*** = Excitement Factor (to vote FOR)

^^ = Near Win / Loss

Presidential Candidate VP Candidate

Republicans

Gerald Ford Bob Dole
Ronald Reagan *** George H. W. Bush
George H. W. Bush Dan Quayle (***)
Bob Dole Jack Kemp ***
George W. Bush ^^ Dick Cheney ***
John McCain Sarah Palin ***
Mitt Romney Paul Ryan ***

Democrats

Jimmy Carter Walter Mondale
Walter Mondale Geraldine Ferraro ***
Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen
Bill Clinton *** Al Gore
Al Gore ^^ Joe Lieberman
John Kerry ^^ John Edwards (***)
Barack Obama *** Joe Biden

For decades now the GOP establishment played the game of having the "Excitement Factor" on the VP side of the ticket, with similarly dismal results. Independents don't really vote en masse for VPs.

From Obama-Romney Race Is Focused on 7 States - AP, by Thomas Beaumont, 2012 August 25

Intrade odds, most likely, reflect these models today. Doesn't mean that Romney can't win (he is also making a play for Wisconsin and Michigan, which would increase his odds) but anyone thinking "blowout" or "wipeout" over Obama is likely to be disappointed by the outcome.

Choosing a caricature of a Republican as your candidate doesn't help - white stiff über-rich banker/financial CEO with "shady" offshore accounts and "possible" tax-avoidance issues, who keeps trying to buy elections and whose privileged life "regular" people can't relate to and may resent - but that's the Grand Old ["Stupid"] Party for you.

25 posted on 08/26/2012 4:23:29 PM PDT by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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