Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Romney +4, but 0bama approval still high @ 48%)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9-2-12 | Scott Rasmussen

[GR_Jr.]

he Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Just prior to this past week's Republican National Convention, Romney trailed the president by two. Today’s four-point advantage confirms that the GOP hopeful has received the expected convention bounce.

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove of the job Obama is doing (see trends).

[LS]

There is no such thing as the Bradley effect. It was disproven in 2008, big time. The polls were about right at the end.

That said, I think Gallup is closer in the disapproval than Ras. You simly can't have this kind of Romney lead and still have 48% job approval.

[Sooth2222]

This is a summer holiday weekend. Conservative/libertarian/right-thinking independent voters tend to be undercounted over weekends, and more so over long holiday weekends. So, as good as a 6-point "bounce" might seem, based on the Rasmussen "strongly approve" number of -15 (I'd guesstimate the real number is about -20) I think Romney is actually doing better than the polling indicates.

The 'rats should get their own "bounce" from their convention next week (or negative bounce, depending on how well or badly it goes), so then those numbers need to fade. Look for the "real" numbers about the third week of September.

[Soul Seeker]

Have you considered perhaps dislike of Romney extends beyond age and youth?

Obama’s a Carter-esque disaster and Romney would be marginally better but he’s no prize. This is the same guy that was mediscaring in the republican primary less than a year ago. He’s a Massuchusetts Liberal and only a few short years ago Republicans used to make fun of these kinds of people. Now one has been nominated as the Republican nominee and everyone is supposed to be eager and happy to vote for this man and convince others to go to the polls because he marginally adapts his message to include a few conservative buzz words?

The polls reflect a situation of these two candidates own making. Liberals are unhappy with Obama but relunctantly rallying to their nominee while Republicans are unhappy and relunctantly rallying to theirs. Meanwhile the rest of us are pretty apathetic and disgusted by both choices and haven’t rallied to anyone yet.

[Andrei Bulba]

There is little to approve.

[Sooth2222]

Most 2008 polls underestimated the McCain vote (8 of 10). Not by a huge amount, but the bias is there, and it appears to be nonrandom.

[Andrei Bulba]

Don’t forget a near 100% racial black vote, add in most hispanic children of illegals, liberal Jewish population, New York, California, etc. Just saying lots of democrat demographics.

But then again Romney is leading so I’m finding the Obama approval a bit high. Note they now are playing the “Romney wants war” card.

[jimsin]

'Not much of a "bounce" for Romney.'

PSSST...words of advice. Candidate Mitt...want to seal the deal and win in a landslide....? ..... 4 words..

SARAH

PALIN'S

TEA ....

PARTY

Get yer people movin...start lining up battleground state rallies immediately. Featuring you and ...SARAH on the dias.....What numbers you can't attract ...SHE sure as hell can. Now...do you want to win or NOT? You aint gonna win standing up there next to anyone named karl thats for sure...

Switch off appearances....ROMNEY/PALIN...ROMNEY/RYAN.... RYAN/PALIN.... ROMNEY/RYAN.

Cycle thru these as many times as it takes you to win.

No charge.

[Mercat]

You could be right but Americans may be tired of the hubbub and Romney seems safe and competent. I think they’re tired of excited.

[SumProVita]

His approval in such polls is high because the pop culture (in its utter ignorance of history) likes the pop-Marxist.

[LS]

Wow. Hard to believe they still “misunderestimated” a 10-point blowout.

[LS]

Well, Freedomworks just sent a bunch of people from TX who worked the Ted Cruz victory to OH.

[newzjunkey]

You can't expect much bounce from a convention no one watched.

This polling makes me suspect Obama will be reelected after all. It's depressing and if there's one think I don't need more of in my life, it's depressing news! I may head into a 'news black out' like I did in 2008 and skip the debates, cast a vote and ignore the rest.

[GoldenPup]

Right. Rasmussen is the only reliable country-wide polling outfit. Gallup is a lib shill and most of the Lame street media is in the tank for libs so they are totally Bogus, too.

[CincyRichieRich]

There is no such thing as the Bradley effect. It was disproven in 2008, big time. The polls were about right at the end.
That said, I think Gallup is closer in the disapproval than Ras. You simly can’t have this kind of Romney lead and still have 48% job approval.

---

So that said, then you are telling me there are no frustrated, angry republicans like me hanging up on pollsters and refusing to answer them, and, there are no replublicans or even moderates who are telling the pollsters what they want to hear to not look like they are anti-black? And, you are telling me there are because of these two things not oversampling of Dems? Call it something else then, all three of these things ARE going on. That is to our favor and what happened in 2010 as the Dems arrogantly thought the exit polls were right when they were wrong.

[thingumbob]

Naw... it's just a typo....

You know? They didn't mean to reverse the numbers?....

[jimsin]

'Well, Freedomworks just sent a bunch of people from TX who worked the Ted Cruz victory to OH.'

BUT WHAT ABOUT THIS? HOUSTON (FOX 26) - A high-profile republican was in the Houston area Friday night to campaign for GOP Senate candidate Ted Cruz. Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin spoke at a Cruz rally in The Woodlands. Read more: http://www.myfoxhouston.com/story/19135409/2012/07/27/tea-party-favorite-sarah-palin-in-town-to-back-ted-cruz#ixzz25MepWrrZ i dont think anybody or any org beats the dazzling magnetism of the GREAT SARAH...

WASILLA ALASKA'S SARAH LOUISE.... A PLACE WHERE BEAUTY MEETS BRAINS MEETS BRAVERY MEETS HONESTY MEETS FAITH AND ABILITY.... !

[Caipirabob]

People are still afraid to tell pollsters Obama sucks.

I have to agree with this. I've been polled on 4 occasions and told them "I'd rather keep my opinion to myself."

Who knows what Nazi nutjob is calling to track where you stand? And if they want obama re-elected, they are certified nutjobs, Nazi being the default.

[RKBA Democrat]

Its still too early to tell. Give it 2 weeks and you’ll have a pretty good idea of where this is going. And remember that national polls don’t matter worth a hill of beans when Presidents are selected by the EC not popular vote.

I think its going to be close. Beyond that its anyones guess.

[LS]

Just saying, you couldn’t find it in any of the data.

[Norman Bates]

The so called Bradley Effect is baloney. LS and I followed the polls religiously on a daily basis in 2008 and if I took one thing away from that election cycle it was that. Total baloney for head-in-the-sand types and since I’m sure you aren’t that, you’d do well to drop that angle. The polls were right. If there is any such thing it’s already built into the margin of error making it effectively unmeasurable.