Skip to comments.NBC releases new oversampled Democrat polls: Ohio D+10, Virginia D+5 Florida D+2
Posted on 09/14/2012 11:44:00 AM PDT by yoe
NBC is at it again, releasing heavily Democrat oversampled polls in three key battleground states to try and make Obama look good. Problem for them is that not only where these polls taken right after the DNC convention, but the last few days have eroded any bounce Obama got from the convention. In fact, Obama trails Romney nationally according to the latest Rasmussen poll. After his bumbling and stumbling over the middle east crisis, his numbers are likely to sink even more. But for the time being, lets take a look at the three new polls released by NBC to make Obama appear invincible. In Virginia and Florida, the biased polls find Obama up by five on Romney. In probably the most important state in this election season, Ohio has Obama up by 7%, with Obama barely hitting 50%. Problem is this NBC oversamples Democrats by 10 percentage points. The sample of likely voters in Ohio is 38% Democrat, 28% Republican and 32% independent. But of course, when you oversample Democrats as much as NBC, you can nitpick stats that appear to look good for Obama. Check out NBC Obama licker Chuck Todd:
(Excerpt) Read more at fireandreamitchell.com ...
The scary thing is all of the “politically ignorant voters” and all of the “politically stupid voters” who, really, believe in all of this pro-leftist stuff!
Romney will win the election and stop the US from going over a cliff by 7%. It would be 10 if it would not be full of cheaters.
HH: And the screen, the sample size, was 38% Democrat, 28% Republican.
HH: Ten point spread. How does that yield a good result?
LM: Well, in the exit polls last time, if Im not mistaken, it was an eight point spread. So its within the error margin of what it was last time. And you know, party ID is not fixed in stone, either. It does vary somewhat. So yes, you know, the numbers are showing, we think, a pretty accurate and important indication of where things are, stand. In Florida, I think it was a one point difference, and in Virginia, it was a two point difference going the other way. So I mean, that, both polls, all three states are within two points, I believe, of what they were in the party ID last time. Of course, the last time is based on the exit polls, which are also polls. So its nice to have a barometer. You want to be in the ballpark. But it doesnt mean that last time was exactly going to replicate itself this time. Thats why we interview so many people in our surveys, and why we filter down to likely voters, which you correctly identified. HH: But now for the benefit of the audience, the actual result in 2004, George W. Bush won by 2%. In 2008, President Obama won by 5%. You are right. The exit polls showed Ohio at an 8% greater turnout of Democrats four years ago.
HH: But as HotAirs critic wrote of the poll, The Democratic turnout advantage in this Marist model would only be a point less in Virginia and Florida than it was at the apex of Hope and Change in 2008. And in Ohio, it would actually be two points greater. Is there some level at which, I mean, how did you arrive at 38-28, Dr. Miringoff?
Yep! Pollsters manufacture opinion, that`s it. The polls while phony, become reality once the masses hear the results.
At least that`s what I believe
Reuters falling all over the bamster also.....
Reuters Poll: Obama Pulling Away From Romney
We just gotta get out & vote, NOONE is going to help us.
Hey, I believe everything these lying sacks of s... say, so I am VOTING TWICE.
FOX quit using Opinion Dynamics in early 2011. They now use an outfit run by a dem and a republican (supposedly). Even so, their polls are still awful. One of them about a month ago was sampling dems +8. Bret Baier, to his credit since most reporters simply quote the results and not the methods, pointed it out to his viewers. The reason? They oversampled dems because that is what other major polling outfits were doing and they just followed suit.
I thought it was interesting in FOX’s poll the other day that independents are now supposedly going for Obama by +8 over Romney. In their previous poll independents were going for Romney by about +10 over Obama. That seemed like quite a sway for a race that appears to be close.
I think a lot of these polls are based on outdated methodology and 1) Set up to suppress the vote and 2) if that doesn’t work, cause liberals to cry foul and point to all of these polls as evidence after Romney wins to demand a recount, cry voter fraud, and riot in a manner reminiscent of Ghengis Khan. I only put the Ghengis Khan in there to remind people that as we talk of polls, the world burns and John Kerry may be our next Secretary of State!!
The polls would not be close if Romney was not a complete and utter passionless cypher. Show that you want the job, man!
What about pretending that an obscure, rump of a film caused massive violent Muslim protests on the anniversary of 9/11?
What’s the coverup there?
If Romney keeps it close in the People’s Republik of Northern Virginia, he will take Virginia.
I doubt Obama carries the PRNV by double digits this election.
Well said...this business of rep pollster working with dem pollster, NBC/WSJ claims to do the same...I know they have Heart or Hart as the Democrat, and they have supposedly a Republican, have no idea who he is, however I think he may just be a puppet.
They only have the Hart guy on NBC talking about the poll. I have heard from Chuck Todd`s lips that he has some input as to the wording of the poll questions, also Chuck/upChuck cant stop talking about the poll, says it`s the “Gold Standard” in polling.
It`s to bad that Rupert Murdoch allows his paper to be connected with the NBC poll.
I just do not believe any longer in the “science” of political partisan polling, I think the science went out the window some time ago, and that the masses are swayed by the announced numbers.
There poll ranked #10 in 08 and Rasmussen was #1
It’s more conservative than PA, but the econ is better than nationally there so... It sure is NOT +10 Dems. They have a Repub gov for one thing...
I know your first thought is always of the samples, so here you go: Im listing the WSJ/NBC poll partisan split first and then the 2008 exit poll split (in parenthesis) for each state for comparison. And yes, this is likely voters:
Virginia: 31D/26R/43I (39/33/27)
Ohio: 38D/28R/32I (39/31/30)
Florida: 35D/33R/30I (37/34/29)
Polls should be banned from after the last convention until the election.
I would like the msm to sweat a bit, not think they can sway the popular voter types...
Does anyone know how one does make an accurate poll? There is no way to know how many Democrats or Republicans will actually vote before an election is there? Please fill me in.
You are absolutely correct! Obama is having such poor turnouts, he has been bussing supporters in and telling the media to make it look like a bigger crowd.
Meanwhile, Romney is supporting coal and his crowds are growing exponentially.
America is not stupid and there is going to be a slaughter in November.