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Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead
Breitbart ^ | Sept 14,2012 | Mike Flynn

Posted on 09/15/2012 7:28:38 AM PDT by Innovative

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; obama; polls; romney
The author is correct, the media is trying to suppress the anti-Obama vote, by making people feel that there is no point in voting, because Obama will win anyway.

I hope people won't oblige the media and will get out and vote and not give Obama a second term to finish destroying the US.

1 posted on 09/15/2012 7:28:43 AM PDT by Innovative
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To: Innovative

Going to be like 2 years ago


2 posted on 09/15/2012 7:32:23 AM PDT by reefdiver (zer0 One and Done)
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To: Innovative

There won’t be any oversampling on November 6th...

Here in the north metro Atlanta area there are no Obama/Biden signs or bumper stickers to be seen anywhere.


3 posted on 09/15/2012 7:34:51 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: Innovative
"Voter suppression is a strategy to influence the outcome of an election by discouraging or preventing people from exercising their right to vote."

They used to do that to blacks in the South. Now the intended target is Republicans.

4 posted on 09/15/2012 7:35:02 AM PDT by Slyfox
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To: Innovative

Ya think?? Polls are “mind benders” these days....not honest injun stats.


5 posted on 09/15/2012 7:41:44 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: Innovative
... the media is trying to suppress the anti-Obama vote, by making people feel that there is no point in voting, because Obama will win anyway.

Just like the KKK did for the Democrats back in the day, the media is doing it today. Now that would be a fun campaign advertisement; "In 1920 the KKK told the minorities that it was useless to vote Republican because the Democrats (Dixiecrats) were going to win anyways. Today the media is doing the same thing as the KKK." Think this would get the LSM's panties in a wad?

6 posted on 09/15/2012 7:49:13 AM PDT by Traveler59 ( Truth is a journey, not a destination.)
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To: Innovative

They know that oversampling and skewed poll results have a tendency to encourage one side while deflating the other side and believing they don’t have a chance. Don’t let this happen to any of you.


7 posted on 09/15/2012 7:51:36 AM PDT by kempster
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To: Innovative
"The Marist poll out of Ohio that showed President Obama with a 7% lead among likely voters over Governor Romney used a sample that had 10% more Democrats than Republicans --a 2% greater advantage than occurred in 2008 at the height of Obamamania! I'll ask the poll's director, Professor Lee Miringoff, for an explanation of the sample on the first segment of today's program and will post the transcript here later today."

Read interview transcript at Marist Institue for Public Polling Director Lee Miringoff
8 posted on 09/15/2012 7:58:21 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Innovative

If Oversampling democraps was accidental (random) then you would expect they would occasionally have a poll result that oversampled Republicans.

I dare them to present the the results of such a poll broadcast all over as factual.


9 posted on 09/15/2012 8:09:09 AM PDT by Mr. K (Reagan: “Washington is where good ideas go to die.”)
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To: Cheerio

Excellent interview with Dr. Mengele, I mean Dr. Miringoff. He refused to acknowledge how patently absurd his poll was on the surface, using a simple common sense rule-of-thumb. Was he being dense? Or dishonest? I think he’s dishonest.


10 posted on 09/15/2012 8:20:58 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Hotlanta Mike
Mike....We need to learn from history. The Dem's have a new strategy. In Wisconsin, during the recall election there were very few signs leading up to the Walker recall vote. Suddenly, within the last 5 days massive signage across the state. Their plan all along was to make a sudden massive attack. The goal was twofold; First hope the the GOP would fall asleep and feel no strong need to get out to vote, secondly try to discourage GOP turnout. Many of the top union/DNC strategies were field tested in Wisconsin this past year.
11 posted on 09/15/2012 8:37:27 AM PDT by John in Wisconsin
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To: WashingtonSource

He took shots at Rasmussen too in that interview. I wish Hewitt would have pointed out that Ras was the most accurate pollster in 08.


12 posted on 09/15/2012 8:38:08 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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Comment #13 Removed by Moderator

To: Innovative

The most corrupt poll of the lot has to be the NBC/Wall St. Journal which puts Obama out of reach in Fl. Oh. & Va. Just goes to prove Rupert Murdock’s love is with the RATS. When the WSJ was purchased by Murdock many thought we’d get a conservative voice.....not!


14 posted on 09/15/2012 9:00:02 AM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: reefdiver

You are absolutely correct. My, my.....wasn’t the 2010 mid term electoral outcome a stunning surprise to the Obamabot media!!! Same thing here!!! Fear not kindred spirits, the Obamabot media is in panic mode....and, will do anything to lie, cheat and steal to get Obama re-elected.

Just hang in there, vote the Ropmney/Ryan ticket, and then remember the real outcome on election day, Novmember 6, 2012: Romney/Ryan, 57%, Obama/Biden, 40%, Others, 3%!!! Obama will carry between eight and ten states, if he is lucky!!!


15 posted on 09/15/2012 9:03:39 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX (My only objective is defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: reefdiver

What did the polls at the time say?


16 posted on 09/15/2012 9:05:55 AM PDT by Optimus Prime (Do liberals even qualify as sentient beings?)
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To: michellewsc2; All

michelle’s been a busy little 5-day old NOOB searching out poll threads to bash expectations for Romney...

Call out the Viking kitties!

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:michellewsc2/index?brevity=full;tab=comments


17 posted on 09/15/2012 9:11:56 AM PDT by maine-iac7 (Christian is as Christian does....)
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To: Mr. K
I don't know what the definition of oversampling is.

If the Dems are polling in a city such as Philadelphia, wouldn't they have to have a sampling skewed towards Dems because there ARE more of them in Philly.

I guess my question is: does oversampling mean above an equal average? or does it mean above the known sampling ratios?

18 posted on 09/15/2012 10:44:13 AM PDT by LoveUSA (God employs Man's strength; Satan exploits Man's weakness.)
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To: Innovative
The author is correct, the media is trying to suppress the anti-Obama vote, by making people feel that there is no point in voting, because Obama will win anyway.

I remember the Republican voter suppression scam the media tried to pull election night 2000. Midway through (about 10PM) I and other freepers tumbled to the fact that the media was skewing election coverage and vote tallies in hopes of discouraging George Bush voters. To discourage them from showing up at the polls because it was going to be AlGore's night. Florida was a lot closer than it should have been because the media effers called Florida for AlGore when the Western panhandle (conservative there) had not even finished voting yet due to being in a one hour later time zone than most of Florida

Same thing here in 2012 but done via polls to discourage all us conservatives and Romney supporters etc etc.  So we don't do things to get Romney elected such as put up yard signs, volunteer and speak with neighbors. So they issue messed up polls up until the last one or two before the election. Those are more accurate so the polling company can preserve some shreds of credibly for the next election merry go round so they can get hired.

19 posted on 09/15/2012 10:55:58 AM PDT by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: Optimus Prime

They did not say zer0 and the dopes were going to get their clock cleaned, that I remember for sure.


20 posted on 09/15/2012 11:01:44 AM PDT by reefdiver (zer0 One and Done)
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To: LoveUSA

I’ve wondered the same thing: if you call up 1,000 voters on a supposedly random basis, and you get 70 percent Dems and 30 percent Republicans, and they all tell you they are going to vote straight party line, does that mean you have established accurately that the Democrat is going to receive something close to 70 percent of the vote?

But I know that pundits are always talking about “sampling” and “weighting” the polls. So I assume the “weighting” comes in when they get the rough numbers, and then apply turnout ratios (and probably other factors) to the 70-30 split and come up with something a bit different.

What I see conservatives hanging their hats on this time is that many pollsters are using 2008 turnout numbers to weight the results; and in 2008 the proportion of Republicans voting was far less than in, for instance, 2010.

Then again I could be completely wrong.


21 posted on 09/15/2012 11:08:58 AM PDT by Fightin Whitey
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

I can’t see Obie breaking 40%. %35 wacko lefties and a small portion of the indies. 56/39/5. Landslide


22 posted on 09/15/2012 11:22:45 AM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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To: Innovative

That could also backfire. Obama supporters could also stay home believing that his win is assured and so they’re vote isn’t necessary.


23 posted on 09/15/2012 11:36:57 AM PDT by tegan48
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To: John in Wisconsin

In 2008 Zero did not win in Georgia, and in 2012 he has an even slimmer shot. We have a Republican guv and a Republican dominated state legislature.


24 posted on 09/15/2012 11:57:26 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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You’re a bit new in town to tell us to start worrying. IMHO, this election will be a repeat of ‘10, maybe a bigger ass whoopin’, plus winning the White House.


25 posted on 09/15/2012 12:09:45 PM PDT by Bushbacker1 (I miss President Bush! 2012 - The End Of An Error! (Oathkeeper))
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To: Fightin Whitey; LoveUSA

Fair polls reflect the actual ratio of D/R/I, whatever that may be: ratio of registered voters or likely voters (which obviously takes into account how likely they are to vote.).
Oversampling means that the polls ask more of one party, than their actual ratio.

It is NOT just more of one side vs the other.

As an example, say that some place they have 60% D and 40% R registered. If the poll is weighted to have 60% D and 40% R in that sample, than the poll is properly weighted.

If they poll 70% D and 30% R, when there are 60% D and 40% R registered, then they are oversampling Democrats.

Oversampling means that the polls don’t reflect the actual ratio.


26 posted on 09/15/2012 2:15:33 PM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: Innovative

Thanks for setting me straight. : D


27 posted on 09/15/2012 3:53:08 PM PDT by LoveUSA (God employs Man's strength; Satan exploits Man's weakness.)
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To: Innovative

Believe me, I am a broken glass voter.Nothing but God will stop me from voting in Nov.


28 posted on 09/15/2012 3:55:00 PM PDT by mware (By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West)
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To: John in Wisconsin
Many of the top union/DNC strategies were field tested in Wisconsin this past year. Since Walker held on to his job by a larger margin than forecase, I guess the last-minute-signage was a failure and won't be replicated?
29 posted on 09/15/2012 9:28:17 PM PDT by KeithSchuler
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To: LoveUSA

There is nothing wrong with not knowing something, better to ask and find out.


30 posted on 09/15/2012 9:37:49 PM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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