Skip to comments.Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead
Posted on 09/15/2012 7:28:38 AM PDT by Innovative
Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.
I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I hope people won't oblige the media and will get out and vote and not give Obama a second term to finish destroying the US.
Going to be like 2 years ago
There won’t be any oversampling on November 6th...
Here in the north metro Atlanta area there are no Obama/Biden signs or bumper stickers to be seen anywhere.
They used to do that to blacks in the South. Now the intended target is Republicans.
Ya think?? Polls are “mind benders” these days....not honest injun stats.
Just like the KKK did for the Democrats back in the day, the media is doing it today. Now that would be a fun campaign advertisement; "In 1920 the KKK told the minorities that it was useless to vote Republican because the Democrats (Dixiecrats) were going to win anyways. Today the media is doing the same thing as the KKK." Think this would get the LSM's panties in a wad?
They know that oversampling and skewed poll results have a tendency to encourage one side while deflating the other side and believing they don’t have a chance. Don’t let this happen to any of you.
If Oversampling democraps was accidental (random) then you would expect they would occasionally have a poll result that oversampled Republicans.
I dare them to present the the results of such a poll broadcast all over as factual.
Excellent interview with Dr. Mengele, I mean Dr. Miringoff. He refused to acknowledge how patently absurd his poll was on the surface, using a simple common sense rule-of-thumb. Was he being dense? Or dishonest? I think he’s dishonest.
He took shots at Rasmussen too in that interview. I wish Hewitt would have pointed out that Ras was the most accurate pollster in 08.
The most corrupt poll of the lot has to be the NBC/Wall St. Journal which puts Obama out of reach in Fl. Oh. & Va. Just goes to prove Rupert Murdock’s love is with the RATS. When the WSJ was purchased by Murdock many thought we’d get a conservative voice.....not!
You are absolutely correct. My, my.....wasn’t the 2010 mid term electoral outcome a stunning surprise to the Obamabot media!!! Same thing here!!! Fear not kindred spirits, the Obamabot media is in panic mode....and, will do anything to lie, cheat and steal to get Obama re-elected.
Just hang in there, vote the Ropmney/Ryan ticket, and then remember the real outcome on election day, Novmember 6, 2012: Romney/Ryan, 57%, Obama/Biden, 40%, Others, 3%!!! Obama will carry between eight and ten states, if he is lucky!!!
What did the polls at the time say?
michelle’s been a busy little 5-day old NOOB searching out poll threads to bash expectations for Romney...
Call out the Viking kitties!
If the Dems are polling in a city such as Philadelphia, wouldn't they have to have a sampling skewed towards Dems because there ARE more of them in Philly.
I guess my question is: does oversampling mean above an equal average? or does it mean above the known sampling ratios?
I remember the Republican voter suppression scam the media tried to pull election night 2000. Midway through (about 10PM) I and other freepers tumbled to the fact that the media was skewing election coverage and vote tallies in hopes of discouraging George Bush voters. To discourage them from showing up at the polls because it was going to be AlGore's night. Florida was a lot closer than it should have been because the media effers called Florida for AlGore when the Western panhandle (conservative there) had not even finished voting yet due to being in a one hour later time zone than most of Florida
Same thing here in 2012 but done via polls to discourage all us conservatives and Romney supporters etc etc. So we don't do things to get Romney elected such as put up yard signs, volunteer and speak with neighbors. So they issue messed up polls up until the last one or two before the election. Those are more accurate so the polling company can preserve some shreds of credibly for the next election merry go round so they can get hired.
They did not say zer0 and the dopes were going to get their clock cleaned, that I remember for sure.
I’ve wondered the same thing: if you call up 1,000 voters on a supposedly random basis, and you get 70 percent Dems and 30 percent Republicans, and they all tell you they are going to vote straight party line, does that mean you have established accurately that the Democrat is going to receive something close to 70 percent of the vote?
But I know that pundits are always talking about “sampling” and “weighting” the polls. So I assume the “weighting” comes in when they get the rough numbers, and then apply turnout ratios (and probably other factors) to the 70-30 split and come up with something a bit different.
What I see conservatives hanging their hats on this time is that many pollsters are using 2008 turnout numbers to weight the results; and in 2008 the proportion of Republicans voting was far less than in, for instance, 2010.
Then again I could be completely wrong.
I can’t see Obie breaking 40%. %35 wacko lefties and a small portion of the indies. 56/39/5. Landslide
That could also backfire. Obama supporters could also stay home believing that his win is assured and so they’re vote isn’t necessary.
In 2008 Zero did not win in Georgia, and in 2012 he has an even slimmer shot. We have a Republican guv and a Republican dominated state legislature.
You’re a bit new in town to tell us to start worrying. IMHO, this election will be a repeat of ‘10, maybe a bigger ass whoopin’, plus winning the White House.
Fair polls reflect the actual ratio of D/R/I, whatever that may be: ratio of registered voters or likely voters (which obviously takes into account how likely they are to vote.).
Oversampling means that the polls ask more of one party, than their actual ratio.
It is NOT just more of one side vs the other.
As an example, say that some place they have 60% D and 40% R registered. If the poll is weighted to have 60% D and 40% R in that sample, than the poll is properly weighted.
If they poll 70% D and 30% R, when there are 60% D and 40% R registered, then they are oversampling Democrats.
Oversampling means that the polls don’t reflect the actual ratio.
Thanks for setting me straight. : D
Believe me, I am a broken glass voter.Nothing but God will stop me from voting in Nov.
There is nothing wrong with not knowing something, better to ask and find out.