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General Elections : Romney vs Obama ( The UnSkewed Polls )
UnskewedPolls.com ^ | 09/19/2012

Posted on 09/19/2012 6:54:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

QStar Network:   QStarNews   RightNewsNow   Dean2112.com   MittRomney2112   GOP2112.com   QStarCredit.com  

    

UnSkewed Choices   
QStar News Quick Poll

UnSkewed Average -- Romney vs. Obama

UnSkewed Average -- Presidential Approval


 


UnSkewed Polling Data


Poll Date Sample MoE Obama(D) Romney(R) Spread

UnSkewed Avg. 9/4 - 9/16 -- -- 43.7 51.5 Romney +7.8

NBC News/WSJ 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 44.0 51.0 Romney +7

Monmouth Univ. 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.5 45.0 50.0 Romney +5

QStarNews 9/10 - 9/15 2075 3.0 44.0 55.0 Romney +11

NY Times/CBS News 9/8 - 9/12 1162 LV 3.0 44.0 51.0 Romney +7

Democracy Corps 9/8 - 9/12 1000 LV 3.1 43.0 52.0 Romney +8

Fox News 9/9 - 9/11 1056 LV 3.0 45.0 48.0 Romney +3

Reuters/Ipsos 9/7 - 9/10 873 LV 3.4 42.0 51.0 Romney +9

Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 - 9/9 826 LV 4.0 45.0 52.0 Romney +7

CNN/ORC 9/7 - 9/9 875 RV 3.5 45.0 53.0 Romney +8

IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/4 - 9/9 808 RV 3.5 41.0 50.0 Romney +9

ARG 9/4 - 9/6 1200 LV 3.0 43.0 53.0 Romney +10




UnSkewed Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE Approval Disapproval Spread

UnSkewed Avg. 9/4 - 9/16 -- -- 44.1 52.8 Disapprove 8.7

NBC News/WSJ 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 44.0 54.0

QStarNews 9/10 - 9/15 2075 3.0 45.0 55.0 Disapprove 10

NY Times/CBS News 9/8 - 9/12 1162 LV 3.0 44.0 51.0 Disapproval 7

Democracy Corps 9/8 - 9/12 1000 LV 3.1 42.0 55.0 Disapproval 13

Fox News 9/9 - 9/11 1056 LV 3.0 45.0 53.0 Disapproval 8

Reuters/Ipsos 9/7 - 9/10 873 LV 3.4 44.0 52.0 Disapproval 8

Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 - 9/9 826 LV 4.0 45.0 49.0 Disapproval 4

CNN/ORC 9/7 - 9/9 875 RV 3.5 44.0 53.0 Disapproval 9



 



TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; elections; obama; poll2012; polls; romney

1 posted on 09/19/2012 6:54:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
QStar News Quick Poll

UnSkewed Average -- Romney vs. Obama

UnSkewed Average -- Presidential Approval


  QStarNews Quick Poll

Romney/Ryan 55%
Obama/Biden 44%


The QStarNews Quick Poll is the first trial run preceding the upcoming QStarNews poll on the presidential race and current events. This election season has seen so many polls heavily skewed and poorly weighted, that show skewed and inaccurate results. The purpose of this poll is to present the most accurate results possible based on the latest of what is known about the electorate and voter behavior and other statistical information available.

The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals.

Republicans are 68 percent conservative, 27 percent moderate and 5 percent liberal. Among Democrats, 14 percent are conservative, 36 percent are moderate and 50 percent are liberal. Independents include 39 percent conservatives, 36 percent moderates and 25 percent liberals.

Our polls about doubly-weighted, to doubly insure the results are most accurate and not skewed, by both party identification and self-identified ideology. For instance, no matter how many Republicans answer our survey, they are weighted at 37.6 percent. If conservatives are over-represented among Republicans in the raw sample, they are still weighted at 68 percent of Republicans regardless. This system of double weighting should insure our survey produces very accurate results, not skewed either way for the Democrats or for the Republicans.

Results: The QStarNews Quick Poll

We asked eight questions in this survey. The link here shows our questions. The important questions were about preference for Romney or Obama in the presidential race, approval or disapproval of President Obama's performance in office, and the generic ballot question for Congress. The web-based survey included 2075 responses surveyed between September 10-15. The poll has a margin of error of three percent.

If the election were held today, would you vote for the ticket of Democratic candidates, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Bicden, or the ticket of Republican candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Congressman Paul Ryan?

Romney/Ryan 55%
Obama/Biden 44%

Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents

ticket Republicans Democrats Independents
Romney/Ryan

94.6%

8.5%

56.7%

Obama/Biden

5.1%

89.4%

41.8%



Do you approve or disapprove of Obama's performance as president?

Disapproval 55%
Approval 45%

Strongly Disapprove 48.78%
Somewhat Disapprove 6.29%
Somewhat Approve 19.67%
Strongly Approve 25.64%

Difference between Strongly Disapprove and Strongly Approve:
23.14%

Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents

App/Dis Republicans Democrats Independents
Strongly Disapprove

32.47%

2.00%

14.39%

Somewhat Disapprove

2.66%

1.62%

2.03%

Somewhat Approve

1.43%

11.22%

6.75%

Strongly Approve

1.98%

18.22%

5.54%



Do you plan for vote for Democrats for Republicans for Congress?

Republicans 54%
Democrats 43%
Other 3%

Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents

Congress Republicans Democrats Independents
Republicans

95%

9%

59%

Democrats

5%

91%

41%



Crosstabls for Presidential vote, Presiential Approval and Congress with income and gender coming soon.


 

2 posted on 09/19/2012 6:55:35 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

Interesting


3 posted on 09/19/2012 7:00:14 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (If Obama's Reelected Imagine The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Bookmarked for later.


4 posted on 09/19/2012 7:01:58 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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sfl


5 posted on 09/19/2012 7:04:26 PM PDT by phockthis (http://www.supremelaw.org/fedzone11/index.htm ...)
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To: SeekAndFind
If this is all true, we're looking at an ass-kicking of biblical proportions.

Just do it.

6 posted on 09/19/2012 7:05:03 PM PDT by stboz
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To: SeekAndFind

if true, Obama is really “skewed”. Let’s hope so.


7 posted on 09/19/2012 7:05:57 PM PDT by beethovenfan (If Islam is the solution, the "problem" must be freedom.)
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To: Gay State Conservative
So, they take polls where there were statistically valid results from randomly selected people and weight them and skew them and somebody wants to believe that stuff?

I can sell the same thing for half the price ~ my assumption will be simple ~ if you want a Republican on top, he'll be on top! $10 a copy please.

8 posted on 09/19/2012 7:08:00 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

Of course you could. The leftists have been operating in just that fashion.


9 posted on 09/19/2012 7:17:23 PM PDT by Josephat (`)
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To: MissMagnolia

bookmark


10 posted on 09/19/2012 7:17:41 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: SeekAndFind; All

Come on guys — don’t you get it?

The reasons the polls are so screwed up in 0’s favor is so when the massive Dem. voter fraud is perpetrated on the US... the media and Dems can just say “Well, for the last few months, the polls predicted the election would be won by zero. What’s your D&*@ problem you racists?”

It’s that simple.


11 posted on 09/19/2012 7:17:47 PM PDT by Texaspeptoman (Even cannibals get fed-up with people sometimes...!)
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To: SeekAndFind
That average is slightly better than i have been able to calculate. What i am trying to factor in (hopelessly) is the number of "silent voters" who are a fractional bunch.

I break those groups into:

1. Hope & Changers - voted Obama in 08 and regret it

2. Newer retired people who voted DEM but now want a "business man" running the country.

3. Mormon/Evangelical vote, very conservative, but not regular voters, plus the Mormon network is huge.

4. First Time Voters who came of age, graduated and have no job.

5. Black voters who don't vote "color" and want a better future instead.

6. Blue Collar Dems/Reagan Democrats who are wondering WTF happened to their party.

Union Members who will quietly vote Romney.

7. Women, who are concerned about the price of a gallon of milk, gas (usually pays the bills, too) and sees the pain in their husbands eyes because he's worried about his job.

8. Jewish voters, who are Jewish first, and Democrat second.

9. Hispanic voters who socially conservative and will vote against their kids.

10. THE BIGGEST ONES OF ALL - SENIORS/PARENTS who are angry that their kids vote got us where we are, and will vote (although they may not have voted last time).

Yeah, i know. My spreadsheets are crazy and i have so many bookmarks from demographics, et al. breakdowns from the previous elections (08, 10) that my eyes bleed.

Feel free to toss me some more variables...

12 posted on 09/19/2012 7:19:06 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: muawiyah
Actually the methodology could be more or less correct. Note the following:

"The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate (is) 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters."

That's an R+4.3 correction. Since most of the polls they reference are in the D+5 to D+9 range or so, the results are about what you would expect. What you need to question is the R+4.3. Knock that down to D+1 or D+2 and the Romney numbers will look more reasonable.

But maybe we will have an R+4.3 election. That would be an election for the ages.

13 posted on 09/19/2012 7:19:51 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: InterceptPoint
The difference is the polls inquire of those polled what their affiliation is ~ and that's what they answered.

Simply substituting something you've concocted elsewhere for the information derived from the act of polling real people IS NOT LEGITIMATE

I proposed this could be handled much easier simply by telling you a Republican was on top ~ just send me $10 and that's what you'll get without fuss or mess or a lie that a random sample poll was actually conducted!

14 posted on 09/19/2012 7:25:16 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: InterceptPoint
That would be an election for the ages.

I believe Romney will win, and when he does I can't wait to see the reaction of liberals. Priceless.

15 posted on 09/19/2012 7:26:37 PM PDT by Kharis13 (That noise you hear is our Founding Fathers spinning in their graves.)
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To: InterceptPoint

I know, it’s like i’m Kyle and i’m talking to Cartman ~ why do i bother.


16 posted on 09/19/2012 7:26:49 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature
And lastly, i believe the secret weapon will be Palin/Tea Party last few week blitz. I believe that Romney (via Ryan) will go over the heads of the GOPe and pull that on them, with enough time to cause a fire, but not enough time for Team Zero to play anything but the same Sh*t they pulled last time, which has lost it's shock value.

Wonder why Palin has been so quite?

17 posted on 09/19/2012 7:28:24 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: Kharis13
i believe the drought will break and it will rain. people will go off foodstamps. cows will eat well. corn will grow again.

the thing is changing the poll results doesn't change the election.

there's an old spanish mission in san juan capistrano. they sell amulets there that are guaranteed to "DO STUFF" ~ i'm more likely to believe in the amulets than changing poll results to impress God that your candidate is worthy of divine intervention.

18 posted on 09/19/2012 7:30:01 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature
just figured it out ~ many freepers have joined a Cargo Cult ~ that's why they think you can change the outcome by displaying different numbers ......... oh, my!

you'd think they'd been happy with the wooden airplanes

19 posted on 09/19/2012 7:32:10 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: SeekAndFind
Statistics - one of the three types of lies. Give me enough statistics and I can prove to you that the earth is flat.
20 posted on 09/19/2012 7:35:12 PM PDT by Radio Free Tuscaloosa (God Bless...America!! - Adm. Jeremiah Denton)
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To: muawiyah

I’ve already explained stratified random sampling to you on another thread. In this case they are assuming that the August 2012 party affiliation survey by Rasmussen was representative and are doing stratified random sampling based on that weighting of party affiliations, rather than party affiliations from 2008 exit polling data.


21 posted on 09/19/2012 7:39:44 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: SeekAndFind

prayers that this is what happens!


22 posted on 09/19/2012 7:41:26 PM PDT by Jewels1091
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To: SeekAndFind

Thank you for that brief interlude for sanity...and now back to our regularly scheduled DNC propaganda.


23 posted on 09/19/2012 8:05:33 PM PDT by GBA
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To: muawiyah

You are clearly not a numbers guy, you never have illustrated any ability to crunch, analyze or explain data or numbers of any kind.

You can safely be ignored if the subject involves math.


24 posted on 09/19/2012 8:16:55 PM PDT by Kansas58
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To: SeekAndFind
The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals.

Flaws of the top of my head:

1. I don't see anything concerning registered voter v. likely voter. This makes a huge difference in poll results.

2. Sample size. What is it? That makes a huge difference.

3. Method. What process did they use to determine who they picked and where they resided? How did they go about making these random? Cities v. suburbs? Northern or Southern? A southern democrat can be more conservative than a northern republican. These things all have a major effect on polling results.

25 posted on 09/19/2012 8:26:32 PM PDT by nicmarlo (I'll Take the Mormon Over the MORON)
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To: SeekAndFind

Devil’s Advocate Moment:

But how do we KNOW that there aren’t lots of Dems? Face it, Obama milks the popular culture like a serious pro. Due to the TV and movies megaphone, it is widely considered incredibly cool to be a Democrat.


26 posted on 09/19/2012 8:27:13 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
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To: SeekAndFind
If you ask, "are you liberal or conservative?" you will get one answer.

If you ask "are you politically liberal or conservative?", you will not get the same answer. Some folks are personally conservative, but feel like being "liberal" in politics is a way to be "big-hearted" on the cheap.

27 posted on 09/19/2012 8:34:42 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think the real tell is the Abyss rating: Strongly Disapprove - (Strongly Approve + Somewhat Approve). IOW, all the approvers can’t overcome the those most fed up with this putz.

Strongly Disapprove 48.78%
Somewhat Disapprove 6.29%
Somewhat Approve 19.67%
Strongly Approve 25.64%

48.78 - (19.67 + 25.64)
48.78 - 45.31
Abyss = 3.57!

The trick, of course, is to get the ABO turnout to reflect this...


28 posted on 09/19/2012 8:43:34 PM PDT by castlebrew (Gun Control means hitting where you're aiming!))
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To: castlebrew
I think the real tell is the Abyss rating: Strongly Disapprove - (Strongly Approve + Somewhat Approve). IOW, all the approvers can’t overcome the those most fed up with this putz.

Boom! I think you've nailed it.

29 posted on 09/19/2012 8:48:56 PM PDT by Smokeyblue
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To: SeekAndFind

I do not trust these/this poll(s) :)


30 posted on 09/19/2012 8:53:12 PM PDT by yield 2 the right (2012, the election year that stinks!)
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To: Smokeyblue

thanks!! blind pig meets acorn


31 posted on 09/19/2012 9:16:40 PM PDT by castlebrew (Gun Control means hitting where you're aiming!))
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To: The_Reader_David
Look, with about 4 full decades of actual involvement with the world's largest stratified random sample based system I think I've encountered just about everything there is to know along that line.

The proposal here is not stratified random sampling. They are taking existing polls and simply REPLACING the results with numbers they prefer!

We all encountered this way back in 5th grade when our math teacher ~ the special one brought in from the university ~ referred to "the Egyptian variable" ~ which is the number you multiply your answer with to get the correct answer, or vice versa!

32 posted on 09/20/2012 5:20:31 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

Weighting samples for better fit to the population is also a perfectly reasonable practice if one knows the demographic composition of the population, and knows that the survey or other measurement is drastically out of line.

Here, of course, the real population doesn’t exist yet — those who vote on Nov. 6 — and one can debate whether using the party affiliation rates from the August 2012 Rasmussen party affiliation survey is a good weighting, but they’re not just jiggering the numbers to get a desired result: they are reweighting the samples from recent polls that provide enough internals to fit the Rasmussen party affiliation data.


33 posted on 09/20/2012 12:02:44 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: muawiyah

It appears to me that the goal of every poll is to show a statistical tie of around 46-47%,

so they take their poll and adjust the sample in order to get these results every time.


34 posted on 09/20/2012 12:04:33 PM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: cookcounty

Their enthusiasm is way down since 2008, but...

even though they stay home, they might “vote” anyway.
After all, they’re democrats.


35 posted on 09/20/2012 12:05:39 PM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: MrB
The narrow divide is created by the American geopolitical structure itself. We use single member districts ~ whether that's a state, a county, a congressional district, a township, a city or the entire nation itself (as in the presidential elections).

Within a few years of the founding of the United States under the 1790 Constitution, Thomas Jefferson and his associates created the Democratic Republican party ~ the purpose of which was to WIN ELECTIONS.

Of necessity a political party is a coalition of similarly minded people ~ but not identically minded. They feel they have interests in common with the others, although those need not be the same interests.

However, to win in a single member district you usually need 50%+1 vote. To successfully challenge a winning party you will need to sop up all the other "interests" in the same district so that you have some chance at getting that 50%+1 yourself!

A third party has little chance at overcoming the organizational inertia created by the two earlier parties so most of the time a third party will need to infiltrate an existing party and take over the top end structure.

Obviously not everybody agrees about everything all of the time, else these parties would tend to grind down to a 50/50 situation every election. On the other hand they do come close to 47% to 47% every single time.

Now here's the dilemma for the politicians. If they believe that you can identify and take the political pulse of every single individual with polling that 47/47 split looks like it has 6% available for competition.

Actually that 6% doesn't exist. It's an artifact of the sampling process itself ~ either you catch people at the wrong time, or they don't want to talk, or your questions were defective, or you didn't understand what they said ~ we have some FReepers here who've said as much ~ they get polled and go out of their nuts pushing back at the pollster ~ are they counted as part of the 6%? Or are they simply deleted from the log pages? Only the pollsters know.

In reality the additional 3.1% of the vote the politician needs is already part of his party ~ just unreachable by the polls at the sensitivity available at the price anyone is willing to pay.

This is where the hard part comes in ~ everybody doesn't vote! So, you've got 47% ~ but where is that 47%. If you figure 140 million people are going to vote, that's just under 70 million votes, and your opponent has that amount as well.

However, there are another 60 million VOTERS who usually don't turn out for these elections. If you can get an additional 10% of your own kind of voters out of that nonvoting body to turn out for you, that's an extra 6 million! You win. The other guy loses. If he can get 11% to turn out you lose.

If you can convince some of his regular voters to not bother showing up, you can edge him out. Same on his side.

If you do both ~ like Obama did in 2008 ~ get regular nonvoters to show up to vote for you, and at the same time suppress the other side, you may beat them by 10 million votes.

This phenomenon ~ to wit, that many of his own party followers don't bother to vote most of the time, is critical to electoral victory. If you imagine that there's a 6% plum of undecided out there and it's your job to battle for them with ideas and wit, you'll probably lose unless your opponent does the same thing.

On the other hand, if you recognize that your winning combination lies in the hands of your own party followers who don't usually vote, then all you have to do is get them out to vote and you will almost always win (if the other guy's get out the vote efforts are weak).

This is one of the reasons you don't want to anger your other party coalition members ~ they might not help you get out the vote! When that happens you lose.

There's very little ideology in this ~ just coalitions of related interests as perceived by similarly minded individuals ~ all of whom are locked into a single member district where there can be only one winner.

Polls that show wide departures from a fairly even split are reflecting one of two things ~ recent reapportionment after a census, or an improperly constructed poll.

36 posted on 09/20/2012 1:37:08 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: The_Reader_David
I can jigger the numbers as well as the next guy, and for $10 I will do that for any poll ever taken to show that your guy is a winner.

Did you ever stop to think that these pollsters have a really serious public confidence problem? Here we have FReepers imagining that these guys have stratified samples and all they really have is a boiler room operation that calls random numbers around the country until they get about a few hundred respondents ~ with a minimum of more than 100 who'll say they are Republicans, another minimum who'll say they are Democrats, and maybe about 60 who'll swear that they are independents.

That gives you a sort of statistically valid floor but just enough so you have fewer accidents in your selection of numbers to call.

Unless someone pays them an awful lot of money they don't do much more than that on any of these polls. And, as you know, the more characteristics you test for, the more sampling it takes to get statistically valid results for every sample cell in your matrix.

I'd like to know ALL the characteristics, not just the R/D/I business. How about the non responses? If you don't have those in your data base you don't even know if either candidate has a popular following!

37 posted on 09/20/2012 1:47:10 PM PDT by muawiyah
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