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Ohio poll: Obama leads by 5 percentage points (O 51% R 46%;Breakdown - D 48% R 42% I 10% )
CantonRep ^ | Sept 23, 2012 | Tim Botos

Posted on 09/23/2012 5:18:04 PM PDT by Red Steel

Mitt Romney keeps telling Ohioans they are worse off than four years ago — but a majority of you are not buying it.

Six weeks before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a 51 to 46 percent lead in the state over his Republican challenger, according to the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters.

The poll, taken between Sept. 13 and Tuesday and jointly paid for by the eight largest circulating newspapers in Ohio, including The Repository, was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.

The results are similar to those found in the latest national polls. Experts say the numbers are probably a symptom of the battering the Romney campaign has endured in the past several weeks.

“It’s kind of snowballing,” explained Dan Birdsong, a professor of American politics at the University of Dayton.

Romney has absorbed word of internal friction within the campaign; questions about his foreign policy following comments in the wake of violence in Egypt and Libya; and the ‘47 percent’ video.

Clearly, pollsters say, the economy is a huge issue for voters. Dissecting poll results, Romney leads in three subgroups — age 65 and older, males and whites. Obama boasts giant margins among those ages 18 to 29, women, blacks and voters with only a high school diploma or less.

LOCAL SUPPORT

Both campaigns plan to bounce through Ohio this week, trying to gain a stranglehold on the state’s 18 electoral votes.

Romney and running mate Paul Ryan embark on a five-city, three-day bus tour, beginning on Monday. The trip includes a stop in Cleveland on Wednesday — on the same day that Obama visits Kent.

Such campaign swings typically help solidify the faithful.

People such as William Disman of Alliance, who voted for Obama in 2008. Disman said the president deserves four more years. The 66-year-old retiree said Obama has been hamstrung by partisan politics in Washington D.C.

“If he can get a Democratic congress, he’d be able to get a lot more done,” Disman said .

Lisa Atkins of Louisville, a divorced former stay-at-home mom who just entered the workforce, isn’t about to leave the Romney camp. In fact, she’d vote for anyone but Obama. She said she relates to Romney on moral issues.

“His (respect for) Christian values is one of the biggest things; this country was founded on God,” she said.

Both campaigns likely will ramp up efforts to influence independent voters, as well. According to the poll, these kind of voters appear less interested in the race and less likely to turn out for the Nov. 6 election. Next

OPTIMISTIC OHIOANS

Romney has vowed to approve the Keystone Pipeline, slice government bureaucracy, replace the Affordable Care Act health care law, introduce tax cuts and cut the spending deficit. His message to voters across the nation has been: The U.S. is worse off than when Obama took office.

That stance isn’t resonating in Ohio, though, according to the poll. It revealed 41 percent of Ohioans believe they are about the same as in 2008, and 23 percent feel they are better off than four years ago.

“That is a bad strategy in Ohio,” explained William Cunion, a University of Mount Union political science professor.

At the same time Romney laments economic conditions in Ohio, voters are peppered with signs of a turnaround. The state’s unemployment rate of 7.2 percent is a full point below the national average, and Gov. John Kasich recently touted the creation of 122,000 jobs within the state.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; obamaisreallytoast; oh2012; poll; poll2012; romneytoast; toast
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The Party breakdown can be found here, which was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.


Never trust a poll done by a University or College as they seethe with liberal bias.

1 posted on 09/23/2012 5:18:07 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

Sorry, I looked all over that chart and didn’t see party breakdown. I saw 861 voters.


2 posted on 09/23/2012 5:22:57 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Red Steel

They’ll wake up.


3 posted on 09/23/2012 5:23:34 PM PDT by TribalPrincess2U (0bama's agenda¬óDivide and conquer. FREEDOM OR FREE STUFF- YOU GET ONE CHOICE, CHOOSE WISELY)
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To: Red Steel

Only STUPID people will vote for Obama.


4 posted on 09/23/2012 5:23:50 PM PDT by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: LS

Party breakdown here
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/09/president_barack_obama_leads_m.html

scroll to bottom.


5 posted on 09/23/2012 5:24:05 PM PDT by libh8er
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To: Red Steel

Only 10% of Ohio voters are independent ???


6 posted on 09/23/2012 5:25:02 PM PDT by libh8er
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To: Red Steel

What total crocks these polls are! Does ANYONE have the slightest idea how the people who make this Country work feel about Obama? They are so tired of him and his bloviating BS drivel they could puke when they hear his voice! Factor THAT into your cockamamie poll!


7 posted on 09/23/2012 5:27:41 PM PDT by Tucker39
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To: Red Steel

This is bad news if accurate. Without OH, Romney loses as would have Bush to Kerry if Bush lost OH.

RNC needs to flood the airwaves with Obama’s statements from 2008 and 2012 and the delegates at the DNC booing God. What is the RNC doing? Sack RNC Chair Reince Priebus. With this kind of record, Obama should be 5 points behind.


8 posted on 09/23/2012 5:27:44 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: LS

Check the left column that is about 1/3rd the way down the webpage where the heading says “The Ohio Newspaper Organization Poll”. The link to it is at post number 1.


9 posted on 09/23/2012 5:27:58 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: libh8er
Only 10% of Ohio voters are independent ???

That is what the U of Cincy said.

10 posted on 09/23/2012 5:30:30 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: libh8er
48 percent said they were Democrats, 42 percent Republicans and 10 percent independent.

So then Obama leads by 5, and they oversampled Democrats by 6%. That means Romney really leads by 1%.
11 posted on 09/23/2012 5:31:05 PM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: libh8er

Pardon me, but according to the article, the poll was done by U. of Cincinnati. Why then would you present something out of CLEVELAND to explain the breakdown of the poll? Just trying to minimize my brain cramps!


12 posted on 09/23/2012 5:32:24 PM PDT by Tucker39
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To: libh8er; All

but who won the Independents? Romney or obozo?? and what was the spread?? Can’t seem to find it anywhere....


13 posted on 09/23/2012 5:35:22 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Red Steel

Early voting has already started in Ohio. Such polls are meant to influence the voting.


14 posted on 09/23/2012 5:35:32 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Red Steel

“Mitt Romney keeps telling Ohioans they are worse off than four years ago — but a majority of you are not buying it.”

The loaded polls say a majority are not buying it.


15 posted on 09/23/2012 5:38:17 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: Red Steel
Both campaigns likely will ramp up efforts to influence independent voters, as well. According to the poll, these kind of voters appear less interested in the race and less likely to turn out for the Nov. 6 election.

The Obamugabe worship continues.

For decades, the media has been obsessed with independents...now that they're turning to Romney in droves, they're labeled as "disinterested" or unimportant.

At one point in the summer, it appeared in a few polls that independents were turning to Obamugabe...suddenly I saw some attention in the media being paid to independents....now that that trend is over, they're back to a low number in the poll samples.

16 posted on 09/23/2012 5:39:17 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: kabar

well lets hope this has a reverse effect and influences the people on our side to get off their butts as i don’t believe this for a second:

“In recent presidential elections there have been times when both Democrats and Republicans stayed home in large numbers,” Rademacher said. “More Democrats than Republicans are expressing a likelihood of voting at this point in time, but it would not be unheard of for this to move around considerably between now and Election Day.”


17 posted on 09/23/2012 5:39:30 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Red Steel
That stance isn’t resonating in Ohio, though, according to the poll. It revealed 41 percent of Ohioans believe they are about the same as in 2008, and 23 percent feel they are better off than four years ago.

Wouldn't this leave 36 percent thinking things are worse?
18 posted on 09/23/2012 5:39:32 PM PDT by jps098
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To: Red Steel
"Mitt Romney keeps telling Ohioans they are worse off than four years ago — but a majority of you are not buying it."

Ohio's U6 unemployment was 11.4% in 2008 and it's 14.4% today. I'm not buying this poll.

19 posted on 09/23/2012 5:39:36 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: kabar

Romney up 7.8% according to unskewedpolls.com. This is why Tokyo Rose Media (TRM) is spinning so hard. Obama is in fact losing!


20 posted on 09/23/2012 5:40:05 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: Red Steel
The most recent Ohio voter registration stats I could find show:

37% GOP
36% Rat
27% other

Using those numbers, it looks like the race is pretty much tied.

21 posted on 09/23/2012 5:40:23 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Red Steel

48 D 42R 10I-—sounds like it OVERSAMPLED Dems by 3-4 and under sampled Is.


22 posted on 09/23/2012 5:40:46 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Steelfish

“This is bad news if accurate. Without OH, Romney loses as would have Bush to Kerry if Bush lost OH.”

The poll is a crock. Democrats yet again over-sampled.


23 posted on 09/23/2012 5:44:53 PM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: comebacknewt

Ohio does not seem to register by party. A voter is considered to be of the party in whose primary he last voted.

Hopefully, an Ohio voter will correct me if I’m mistaken.


24 posted on 09/23/2012 5:46:15 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Red Steel

If Ohio votes for O they’ll get exactly what they deserve, especially with 4 more years of undermining our economy. Alas. (Can so many good people vote for their own downfall?)


25 posted on 09/23/2012 5:50:41 PM PDT by faithhopecharity
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To: Tucker39
"Factor THAT into your cockamamie poll!"

Now that's FUNNY!! I agree.

26 posted on 09/23/2012 5:51:13 PM PDT by dokmad
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To: Red Steel

according to CNN exit polling for 2008 (who knows how accurate that could possibly be) the breakdown of voters in OH in 2008 was:

39 D
31 R
30 I

I presume the I’s in this poll were breaking to Romney so they down played them accordingly.


27 posted on 09/23/2012 5:58:23 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: LS

Yeah, and they under sampled Independents probably by about 20% for Ohio. LoL.


28 posted on 09/23/2012 5:59:41 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Bigjimslade

now here’s the interesting thing, according to the article “Four years ago, Obama beat John McCain by 4.6 points in Ohio.”...so even with a 7pt advantage and all the momentum in his favor obozo still only won by 4.6pts...i’ll say it till i’m blue in the face- this is Romney’s election to lose and he better not ef it up...


29 posted on 09/23/2012 6:02:20 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Red Steel

             

30 posted on 09/23/2012 6:05:23 PM PDT by tomkat (it's time)
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To: Red Steel

Okay, so when corrected using the *actual* partisan weighting in Ohio, it’s actually a 51%-48% lead for Romney.


31 posted on 09/23/2012 6:05:58 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (You can wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which gets filled first.)
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To: faithhopecharity

Hey, watch it. I live in OH and not voting for Obama. I’ve been pulled about 4 times this past month and stopped answering their calls. They will get my vote count on Nov. 6th.


32 posted on 09/23/2012 6:06:42 PM PDT by Catsrus
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To: jjotto

Not sure about this, but during the primaries a number of people came into the polling station and said they were independent. They had to choose either D or R - couldn’t vote I. So, I’m not sure how this plays out in party affiliation. By the way, those I overheard who were I said Republican - so they got an R ballot.


33 posted on 09/23/2012 6:08:40 PM PDT by Catsrus
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To: Red Steel

Maybe they should ask “Senator” Lee Fisher and “Governor” Ted Strickland about Ohio voters and polls./s


34 posted on 09/23/2012 6:08:46 PM PDT by bleach (If I agreed with you, we would both be wrong.)
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To: LS

This poll follows what seems to be a new trend in poll-slanting that I’ve noticed recently and mentioned to you a few nights ago.

The Dims and the GOP are both oversampled (though the Dims more egregiously so), and the Indies (who are leaning somewhat to Romney) are WAY undersampled. The point seems to be that they think they can get away with not undersampling Republicans as radically as in other polls, but they can still depress the Romney results by massively undersampling the GOP-leaning Indies. Net result - Romney’s numbers are still artificially deflated.


35 posted on 09/23/2012 6:09:14 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (You can wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which gets filled first.)
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To: ShovelThemOut

I hope you are correct. Let’s await some other polls. But Obama is working OH big time.


36 posted on 09/23/2012 6:13:23 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Red Steel

They are getting more and more Dems, because (sorry to say) it’s the Dems that are more often unemployed and sitting home. It’s generally the Republicans that are running their kiesters off trying to make ends meet, and hang up the phone when YET ANOTHER pollster calls.


37 posted on 09/23/2012 6:30:37 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
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To: Tucker39

You need to get out more. Saturday I knocked door-to-door in a downstate IL community notoriously pro-gun. It is a close race. Our message and image are poorly presented.

Taxes, for example. Our side says “only the rich pay taxes”. The average worker looks at his pay stub deductions, looks at his property tax, his state taxes, gas tax and says “The Dems are right. The Republicans are liars”.

So high taxes is the issue for these ordinary voters and they think the Dems understand them and the Republicans are out-of-touch, which might be true.

Saturday among Blacks I talked to were #1 jobs, #2 taxes. Among whites #1 taxes, #2 jobs. Education was a distant 3rd with both groups. On taxes and jobs we are not communicating well.


38 posted on 09/23/2012 6:33:45 PM PDT by spintreebob
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To: Red Steel

This is another laughable poll....

Look, as far as the rust belt goes, and OHIO is part of the rust belt, here’s the breakdown...

Obama isn’t up 5, Obama isn’t going to win OH, IA, IN, or WI.

PA & Mi are battleground IF R/R decide they wish to fight for them and MN and IL are almost certainly safe.

Obama will not win a single state he got less than 55% of the popular vote in in 2008. This whole thing is a joke. Obama up 5 in Ohio??? Not in a liberals wettest dream.


39 posted on 09/23/2012 6:40:34 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Red Steel

This is another laughable poll....

Look, as far as the rust belt goes, and OHIO is part of the rust belt, here’s the breakdown...

Obama isn’t up 5, Obama isn’t going to win OH, IA, IN, or WI.

PA & Mi are battleground IF R/R decide they wish to fight for them and MN and IL are almost certainly safe.

Obama will not win a single state he got less than 55% of the popular vote in in 2008. This whole thing is a joke. Obama up 5 in Ohio??? Not in a liberals wettest dream.


40 posted on 09/23/2012 6:40:39 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: ShovelThemOut

No they’re not. My fellow Freepers are driving me nuts with this poll weighting BS.

This poll is accurately sampled. Ohio clearly has more Democrats than Republicans. In fact, I’m surprised it is only +6. Someone just posted the exit poll from 2008 and if this was actually weighted like that, it would be O up by even more.

Get your heads out of your arses and start dealing with reality. The polls are accurate! No pollster sits around and puts their reputation, and business, on the line just to screw Republicans.


41 posted on 09/23/2012 6:47:41 PM PDT by paul544
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To: Red Steel

Maybe Kasich has been too good for Ohio for Romney to win there?


42 posted on 09/23/2012 6:52:53 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Osama's dead... and so is our ambassador - Coulter.)
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To: kabar

“Such polls are meant to influence the voting.”

Precisely! These polls are bunk!


43 posted on 09/23/2012 6:54:20 PM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: paul544
Just for kicks, why don't you look up and report back to this thread what the %D - %R - %I composition was in the Teanami wave election of 2010.

Conservatives are even more fired up now, knowing that Obamacare has passed the first round of Supreme Court muster...

Cheers!

44 posted on 09/23/2012 6:56:36 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: newzjunkey

Mitch Daniels did a good job with the Indiana budget and Baraq is down 12 points from 2008. So I’m not sure having a Republican governor is a bad thing POTUS-election wise.


45 posted on 09/23/2012 6:57:37 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: paul544
The polls are accurate! No pollster sits around and puts their reputation, and business, on the line just to screw Republicans.

Surely you jest. We've seen D+19 polls around here. Reputation preservation went out the window long ago.

46 posted on 09/23/2012 7:10:47 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: paul544
Um...yes, pollsters DO risk their reputation. if they don't cowtow to the pressure of Axelrod, their reputation in the mainstream media will be destroyed.

Fortunately, we have some truth tellers like Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics.

The polls are oversampled because the enthusiasm of Obama voters compared to 08 is significant, especially when compared to 04 or 2010, the polls are indeed oversampled Democrat AND biased...on purpose.

47 posted on 09/23/2012 7:21:51 PM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: Red Steel

Here’s another BS alert from the article:

“When asked about the president’s health care law, 48 percent of respondents said they want Congress to expand the law or keep it as is. Romney and Republicans have made opposition to the policies, cheered and jeered by supporters and critics alike as Obamacare, a cornerstone of the campaign. Though Ohioans last fall at the ballot box renounced the administration’s health care mandate by a 2-to-1 margin, only 44 percent of poll respondents said they want it repealed.

Obama’s announcement in May that he supports gay marriage might nudge voters slightly toward Romney, who opposes it. But 50 percent of those surveyed said the issue will not make a difference in their vote for president.”

On health care the poll finds results flatly contradicted by all current polling and even the results of 2010 elections in Ohio.

The last line on gay marriage concedes that close to 50 percent of Ohioans are affected by his stance on gay marriage. That is not good news for Obama.


48 posted on 09/23/2012 7:24:50 PM PDT by lonestar67 (I remember when unemployment was 4.7 percent)
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To: HamiltonJay

I do not know if it is 55%, but I agree there is some % in 2008 for the states that Obama will lose this time around. I can not see his % going up in any state and it will likely go down in most.

Your 55% rule says Romney will win:

1. Colorado, Obama won with 53.66% in 2008
2. Florida, 50.91%
3. Indiana, 49.85%
4. Iowa, 53.93%
5. Minnesota, 54.06%
6. New Hampshire, 54.13%
7. North Carolina, 49.70%
8. Ohio, 51.38%
9. Pennsylvania, 54.47%
10. Virginia, 52.63%

This would lead to a Romney winning the electoral college by 331 to 207.

Your rule of thumb is pretty good. Still my view is that Romney is more likely to win Wisconsin, 56.22% in 2008 or Michigan, 57.33%, or Nevada, 55.15%, than Pennsylvania. I am also not so sure about Minnesota.

I do think from that list Romney is likely to win Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio.


49 posted on 09/23/2012 7:29:01 PM PDT by JLS
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To: lonestar67

Will half the voters in ohio really be dems?


50 posted on 09/23/2012 7:29:32 PM PDT by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
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