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Republican poll analysis: Romney winning with middle-class families
politico.com ^ | By ED GOEAS and BRIAN NIENABER

Posted on 09/24/2012 7:38:10 AM PDT by rawhide

Overall, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points on the ballot (50 percent to 47 percent)–which before we rounded up, is actually a 2.6 point lead and only up a half-a-percentage point from the 2.1 point lead for Obama in our last Battleground poll in early August.

In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families,which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent). Middle-class families are more inclined to believe the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right direction, 62 percent wrong track), are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) and Paul Ryan (46 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) than the overall electorate. These middle-class families also hold a majority disapproval rating on the job Obama is doing as president (45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and turn even more negative toward Obama on specific areas; the economy 56 percent disapprove; spending 61 percent disapprove; taxes, 53 percent disapprove; Medicare 48 percent disapprove; and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove.

Presidential reelection races are almost always about the incumbent and whether or not they should be given an additional four years in office. This race looks to be no different. More important, in this latest set of data in the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll, is the fact that Romney is also winning by a strong 14-point margin over Obama with middle-class families, a group of voters that is not only a majority of the American electorate, but is usually seen as the ultimate target group in any presidential election.

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 14; 2012polls; class; middle; romney
Very encouraging news for Romney.
1 posted on 09/24/2012 7:38:14 AM PDT by rawhide
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To: rawhide

So Obama went from a 2.1 (in Aug) to a 2.6 (in Sep) - after the DNC, 47%, etc... and Politico sirens: “Obama pulls ahead of Romney.” LOL!

Soviet style psychiatry.


2 posted on 09/24/2012 7:41:39 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: rawhide

If this holds...

It’s all over but for the crying, screaming and sadly, rioting.


3 posted on 09/24/2012 7:42:49 AM PDT by mkboyce
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To: rawhide

Buried within: “Romney getting 40% of Hispanic male vote.”


4 posted on 09/24/2012 7:43:36 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: rawhide

His biggest negative is his McCain like demeanor towards Obama. Either he (Romney) believes he can manage America’s decline better, or Obama is one of America’s greatest enemies and he’s gong to end Obama’s destructive course... If Romney is a believer in America, he’d better show some anger over what Obama is doing.


5 posted on 09/24/2012 7:45:47 AM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: rawhide
O’Pology has yet to deliver his ‘blame America’ speech at the UN and hopefully that will open a few more close eyes.
6 posted on 09/24/2012 7:46:03 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: rawhide
Republican poll analysis: Romney winning with middle-class families

After ALL that 0bama has accomplished?

That's gratitude for ya'! /ms

7 posted on 09/24/2012 7:46:34 AM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: rawhide

I sure can’t figure where they’re getting anywhere near 50% of people to say they favor Obama. All due to oversampling and rigging of these worthless polls, IMHO.


8 posted on 09/24/2012 7:47:19 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: rawhide

What are the percentalges of Republican/ Democrat/ Independent used in the sampling?


9 posted on 09/24/2012 7:47:23 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: mkboyce

That’s my read on it. Anyone who is married, who has kids, and who actually works for a living is near panic stricken that the boat’s goin’ down if Barry gets four more years.

Also slowly simmering anger over the exploding number of welfare single moms they’re paying for.


10 posted on 09/24/2012 7:47:45 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: rawhide
Republican poll analysis: Romney winning with middle-class families

That's why Obama is trying to kill off middle-America.


11 posted on 09/24/2012 7:48:14 AM PDT by Iron Munro (US Embassies Come and Go But An Obama Apology Lasts Forever)
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To: JPG

Don’t get your hopes up about this UN speech. The MSM will fictitiously cover it and declare him our Greatest Leader. The Usurper knows quite well that his speeches in these types of settings work to his advantage when put through the media filter.


12 posted on 09/24/2012 7:48:42 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: dps.inspect

On the York, PA morning show, the host here had Curt Smith (baseball writer and speech writer for GHWB) on and was asking him about what he thought about both candidates.

He basically called Obama the devil and was very critical of the Romney campaign for their approach. He basically alluded to the fact that Romney doesn’t have the fire in the belly to get this done.

I think his analysis is spot on and if Romney doesn’t come out swinging...and soon...he very well could blow this thing.


13 posted on 09/24/2012 7:49:57 AM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: rawhide

Remember,

Tell all your knucklehead Democrat friends it is looking like a HUGE blowout for Obama. NO NEED to wait in line to vote. “Your vote is not even needed.”

I will confess to wanting something too much. I want to watch MSNBC on election night as the worst Democrat President EVER goes down.


14 posted on 09/24/2012 7:50:20 AM PDT by LeonardFMason
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To: rawhide

Take time to check out the comments on the article. Dems are freaking out! BTW, this article brought to you by the very left leaning Politico.


15 posted on 09/24/2012 7:53:18 AM PDT by Bushbacker1 (I miss President Bush! 2012 - The End Of An Error! (Oathkeeper))
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To: LeonardFMason

“I want to watch MSNBC on election night”

You must have an iron constitution to be able to stomach the libs for that long.


16 posted on 09/24/2012 7:53:27 AM PDT by Londo Molari
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To: dps.inspect

“His biggest negative is his McCain like demeanor towards Obama... “

...well said. Especially, “If Romney is a believer in America, he’d better show some anger over what Obama is doing.” It’s worth repeating.


17 posted on 09/24/2012 7:58:18 AM PDT by albie
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To: rawhide
Sorry, but I see this as wishful thinking and cherrypicking the stats (without providing R/D/I breakdowns) to fabricate some positive headlines to keep the party faithful from losing confidence.

There is not an ounce of credible data in this propaganda piece disguised as a poll. It is no more believable than the nonsense the other side puts out.

The bottom line is that 0 is ahead, and if the election were held today, he would win, albeit by a smaller margin than 2008.

It does not mean all is lost. We still have time to turn this around. But make no mistake about it - Romney/Ryan are behind in the polls - everything, including their demeanour and their responses validate the recent spate of polls.

Lets hope they can still pull it off.

18 posted on 09/24/2012 8:01:25 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: woweeitsme

I think you nailed it. As a fellow “Yorkian,” I am finding that people are dying for a reason to vote for Romney — and he simply refuses to give them one.

IMHO, he needs to take off the kid gloves and — accurately — portray Obama as a willful dilettante unable to learn and unwilling to change. The gas prices alone up here are devastating enough to show up Obama for the incompetent he is. Yet, I have yet to see one ad zeroing in on them.

Romney is clearly buying into the Washington insider “Say Nothing Nasty About Obama” dictum. And it will cost him the election. Obama is not a nice guy who is simply making a few mistakes. He is a willful, wrongheaded miscreant who is deliberately destroying everything upon which our nation was built. Might help if Mitt’s team got that straight.

Bottom Line: this election is between the Makers and the Takers. The Producers and the Welfare Vulture Culture. And it’s time to make that crystal clear.


19 posted on 09/24/2012 8:01:42 AM PDT by CaribCarter
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To: nwrep

Yea right. We all know how hard the media works to encourage Repubs.


20 posted on 09/24/2012 8:06:30 AM PDT by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
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To: JerseyDvl

This is not “the media” - this is just two Republican pollsters spinning a tale. It was simply carried by Politico as a courtesy - they will print anything by the two camps.


21 posted on 09/24/2012 8:12:04 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: rawhide

40% R 16% I 44% D if you do the math.

Pulling some guesses about the data, and weighting it

44R 16I 40R gives 50 - 47% the other way.

Using a cautious approach (32/32/36I):

R 49.48, O 49.08

33R/32D/35I becomes R 50% O 49%

In other words, this poll is horrible news for OZero as there will not be a 4% overall turnout advantage for him.


22 posted on 09/24/2012 8:18:47 AM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: CaribCarter

I’d like to think that Romney is going to introduce Barry to the cut throat Romney during the first debate. I can’t see Barry reacting very well to tough questioning from Romney in person...

We’ll see I guess.


23 posted on 09/24/2012 8:21:06 AM PDT by MNlurker
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To: woweeitsme

Ask Gingrich,Santorum, Perry about fire in the belly. Romney went after them like he was Patton going to Bastogne. But he seems to believe that doing so to Obama would backfire. For many their vote for Obama was seminal event. Despite the chaos of his policies they still like him. To attack Obama would be attacking them for their vote in’08. Romney IMO feels that attacking the failure of Obama’s policies will peel enough ‘08 Obama voters away for a Romney win, but attacking Obama himself would solidify those voters for Obama. I think this is wrong, but seeing the likeability polls and talking with many ‘08 Obama voters I can understand the strategy.


24 posted on 09/24/2012 8:42:22 AM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: nwrep

He’s ahead in polls that oversample Dems


25 posted on 09/24/2012 8:44:43 AM PDT by zt1053
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To: LeonardFMason
I want to watch MSNBC on election night as the worst Democrat President EVER goes down.

I think I'll just DVR it on my computer. Easier to save the best parts that way.

26 posted on 09/24/2012 8:48:41 AM PDT by Charles Martel (Endeavor to persevere...)
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To: LS
Romney is also receiving a higher level of support among Hispanics (40 percent), which is driven by higher support from Hispanic men.

Now that's a revelation.

27 posted on 09/24/2012 8:54:52 AM PDT by GVnana
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To: xkaydet65
he seems to believe that doing so to Obama would backfire

Limbaugh has said as much. Too many Americans "feel sorry for" Obama.

28 posted on 09/24/2012 8:57:02 AM PDT by GVnana
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To: woweeitsme
He basically alluded to the fact that Romney doesn’t have the fire in the belly

That's my concern for after he gets elected. We desperately need someone to take a machete to the roots of the Federal government. Mitt does not have the stomach for that IMHO.


29 posted on 09/24/2012 8:57:33 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: GVnana

BTW, our Montgomery Co., OH GOP office has made MORE CALLS than any other office in America save one!


30 posted on 09/24/2012 9:01:32 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: rawhide


31 posted on 09/24/2012 9:13:48 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (We are the 53%, who pay taxes and keep this country going inspite of the 47% rat moochers!)
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To: rawhide

Read the comments. This is driving the dims crazy. They have to have the fantasy that the tax paying middle class is voting for dems.

When in reality it is the 3rd world government cheese crowd, metrosexual hipsters and the rich who are the base of the democratic party. But for some reason they can’t own those facts!


32 posted on 09/24/2012 9:26:35 AM PDT by lodi90
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To: rawhide

I ride bike through one of the worst neighborhoods in my state. But the government checks are flowing just fine, and people drive nice cars, are fat, and have plenty of money for the drug of their choice.

Obama’s electorate is (ahem) fat, dumb and happy!


33 posted on 09/24/2012 9:43:29 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (You didn't build that. The private sector is doing fine. We tried our plan and it worked.)
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To: CaribCarter

If Romney hasn’t already flipped off the gloves by now, IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN...sad but true. Everyone I know too are hoping and praying for a knock down, drag out, no holds bar war against the BLACK TURD, but it’s just a wet dream. It ain’t gonna happen...SIGH!


34 posted on 09/24/2012 9:51:59 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: LS

Congratulations! Keep up the good work!


35 posted on 09/24/2012 9:55:53 AM PDT by GVnana
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To: RoseofTexas

If you try to wake the undecide early they will get confussed, save the best for the last four weeks. Keep the faith R & R know what they are doing.


36 posted on 09/24/2012 10:19:16 AM PDT by LongViewSC
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To: Iron Munro
The neighbor of one of my coworkers lost her job two months ago, so she went down to file for unemployment and food stamps. Three weeks later, she managed to find a new job, so she went back to cancel the unemployment and food stamps.

The lady at the unemployment office told her that they could cancel the unemployment, but they couldn't do anything about the food stamps since they'd already signed her up for six months worth.

So this woman is back at a job that actually pays more than her previous job, yet she still receives several hundred dollars a month onto her WIS card because they don't have any way of taking you off food stamps once you are on them?!?

37 posted on 09/24/2012 10:29:11 AM PDT by Stonewall Jackson ("I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.")
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To: CaribCarter

He has said plenty of anti-Obama things....he’s taken the gloves off. What he needs to do is present an alternative vision, which the debates and upcoming campaign swings should do.


38 posted on 09/24/2012 12:02:36 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rawhide

This is probably just a ploy by Politi-hole to gain more traffic from the likes of us conservatives. They are probably behind due to their recent lies and deceitful reporting on everything else this political season. I had to take a shower after hitting on their website! Yeah, I fell for it.....


39 posted on 09/24/2012 1:10:06 PM PDT by italyconservative (Come on November!)
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To: woweeitsme
if Romney doesn’t come out swinging...and soon...he very well could blow this thing.

Can you describe how exactly Romney can do that without having a bully pulpit or the MSM helping him?

Do you want Mittens to go on to every street corner and thump his chest and yell loudly? Have you been to one of his personal appearance rallies? Have you seen many Romney Ads?

The best chance Romney will have to show fire in the belly is during debates starting next week. He must show it then or else he will lose.
40 posted on 09/24/2012 10:55:33 PM PDT by entropy12
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