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Romney camp trusts own data, strategy, not public polls, in Ohio
nbcnews ^ | September 25, 2012 ; 53 minutes ago | Garrett Haake

Posted on 09/25/2012 6:09:51 PM PDT by Red Steel

VANDALIA, OH – For the Romney campaign, Tuesday brought yet more bad news from the Buckeye state: a new Washington Post poll showed the Republican presidential nominee trailing President Barack Obama by eight points in this critical battleground state, with 52 percent of Ohio voters in favor of giving the incumbent another four years.

Before Mitt Romney's plane touched down at the Dayton airport today, two top aides were dispatched to the press cabin to put out possible fires the numbers might have sparked.

"The public polls are what the public polls are," Romney Political Director Rich Beeson told reporters. "I kind of hope the Obama campaign is basing their campaign on what the public polls say. We don’t. We have confidence in our data and our metrics."

What the Romney team’s data indicated about Ohio, Beeson wouldn't say. He argued that Romney was inside the margin of error here “by any stretch,” and dismissed the much-hyped Obama ground game in Ohio as activity confused with progress.

"I will put our operation up against anybody’s. But at the end of the day, Ohio is going to come down to the wire and we’ll be in it down to the wire and I’m confident that we will win,” Beeson said.

In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Romney's Ohio chairman Rob Portman projected similar confidence that Romney would carry his home state, despite the mounting poll data showing him slipping further behind President Obama. He told NBC News that the Romney campaign was taking a page out of then-candidate Obama's book by attempting to run a more regional campaign inside the state.

"I do think there is a strategy, which the Obama administration is very good at, which is to you know, target particular groups of people and particular regions and you know, the Romney campaign is doing it as well," Portman said.

Portman, a freshman senator, then ticked off the various demographics and localities and how they're being targeted by the Romney campaign: running advertisements accusing the president of a war on coal in the east; talking fracking in communities near the Marcellus and Utica shale formations; and focusing on trade and China in heavy manufacturing areas like the Mahoning Valley, Northeast Ohio and here in Dayton.

"I think that's one way we're going to win Ohio, by addressing the issues region by region," Portman said. "There isn't just one Ohio. It’s not monolithic."

Moments earlier, Romney had done exactly what Portman suggested; running as much against China's trade practices as the incumbent president, and vowing to fight back to preserve jobs.

"This cannot be allowed," Romney said of alleged Chinese trade abuses. "We cannot compete with people who don't play fair and I won't let that go on, I will stop it in its tracks."

In addition to his role as Romney's Ohio campaign chairman, Portman also serves as Romney's debate sparring partner, a role at which he is so good, Romney claims, the GOP nominee sometimes wants "to kick him out of the room."

Asked how debate preparations were going, Portman shrewdly looked to lower expectations for Romney, and raise them for Obama, ahead of the first showdown on Oct. 3rd.

"When you think about it, [Romney] hasn't had a real debate in 10 years," Portman said, claiming the 20-plus GOP debates Romney participated in during the primaries were not one-on-one, and were more like candidate forums than true debates.

He also heaped praise on Obama's debating skills: "Barack Obama is going to be formidable. I think it'll be a good debate, but I certainly would not underestimate what Barack Obama brings to it: a lot of experience in these kinds of debates and obviously a lot of knowledge and background on the federal issues."


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; oh2012; polls; riggedpolls

1 posted on 09/25/2012 6:09:56 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

romney is down 3 points to the black muslim commie usurper fraud in ohio.


2 posted on 09/25/2012 6:12:45 PM PDT by biggredd1
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To: Red Steel

What the h*ll is wrong with the people still on their knees with Obama? Have they no shame?

I hope and pray the poll numbers are way off.


3 posted on 09/25/2012 6:15:05 PM PDT by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
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To: Red Steel

Good to hear - it’s easy to let the media control your mood. It seems Romney has better polling than the media is willing to allow...so he’s not fooled.


4 posted on 09/25/2012 6:19:44 PM PDT by BobL (You can live each day only once. You can waste a few, but don't waste too many.)
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To: Qwackertoo

Sadly, but predictably, Ohio will be wholly represented by the large metro areas, notably Cleveland. While there may be some hope for Columbus, and a smidgen for Cincinnati, the Cleveland, Dayton, and Toledo metro areas will likely carry the state, overall.

I can say, though, that the areas away from those metro areas are solidly conservative, and will vote that way.

My hope is that the lazy-a$$ dems will believe the polls, and a great many of them will stay home for the Oprah marathon rather than vote...


5 posted on 09/25/2012 6:23:44 PM PDT by PubliusMM (RKBA; a matter of fact, not opinion. 01-20-2013: Change we can look forward to.)
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To: Red Steel
WAPO poll debunked here
6 posted on 09/25/2012 6:24:57 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: Red Steel

NBC REPORTER MOCKS ROMNEY FOR NOT BELIEVING ‘MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING’ CREATES HURRICANES

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/08/31/NBC-Reporter-Mocks-Romney-Global-Warming

Garrett Haake@GarrettNBCNews
Romney has dismissed man-made climate change & joked about rising oceans. Today he’ll see effects of both in flooded south Louisiana
31 Aug 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite
-

Garrett Haake obviously think it’s okay to tweet this unthinking, unscientific, historically ignorant nonsense because he sees it — as OBJECTIVE TRUTH. You know, like water is wet and up is higher than down.

And this is what happens when you live in a bubble — you actually start to believe that if we increase fuel standards hurricanes will go away.

Moreover, now we have yet another look at how impossible it is for Romney to get anything close to objective coverage from those covering the campaign. Look at what Romney’s up against in just the few words of that tweet — a roaring moron who believes that if we cut carbon emissions… hurricanes will go away.

Haake epitomizes the anti-scientific, theocratic thinking of the Our Gaia Of the Global Warming Church.

Biased, arrogant, and hopelessly ignorant — the corrupt media in a nutshell.

 

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC


7 posted on 09/25/2012 6:25:14 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: Red Steel; onyx

Polls are for strippers and cross country skiers.
-Sarah Palin


8 posted on 09/25/2012 6:26:04 PM PDT by TheConservativeParty (Dish Network Channel 212 THE BLAZE "The Bees Know")
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To: Red Steel

Dispatch from Battleground Ohio, where Rob Portman called me “Romney’s @AndrewNBCNews” & set debate expectations looow: nbcnews.to/UFn85L
7:18pm - 25 Sep 12

https://twitter.com/GarrettNBCNews


9 posted on 09/25/2012 6:28:28 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: Red Steel

Garrett Haake

10 posted on 09/25/2012 6:30:10 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: Red Steel

Ah, those mythical “internal polls” that perdicted Juan McCain’s victory in 2008.


11 posted on 09/25/2012 6:32:31 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: Red Steel

Reporters get shaft on Romney plane

“In the 2 hours the press was off Romney plane in SD, a new curtain has been installed to separate the reporters from the staff section.” — NBC News’ Garrett Haake.


12 posted on 09/25/2012 6:33:04 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: Revolting cat!

“Ah, those mythical “internal polls” that perdicted Juan McCain’s victory in 2008.”

Until the scare tactics of the financial markets manipulation delivered the election to Obama a month or two before the election, McCain/Palin had it in the bag. Once people felt sufficiently threatened, and McCain couldn’t articulate a plan for anything other than “business as usual”, he was sunk. Up until that point, any Obama supporters I knew assumed Obama would lose (and it was close enough to indicate that was the truth).


13 posted on 09/25/2012 6:39:47 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Revolting cat!

04/16/2012

Understanding the Romney policy leak

Yesterday evening NBC’s Garrett Haake had a nice scoop, revealing some policy proposal details that Mitt Romney discussed at a closed-door fundraiser. Most notably: plans to streamline the federal government, possibly eliminating some agencies — and, perhaps, shutting down the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which Romney’s father once headed.


14 posted on 09/25/2012 6:40:12 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: Red Steel

I don’t trust ANY “polls” right now. These same bass turds who claim Barry the Kenyan Guy is winning never saw 2010 coming. They’re about to make it two in a row.


15 posted on 09/25/2012 6:41:03 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Proud to be a 53 percenter American.)
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To: Red Steel

Wise to ignore the external polling. It’s like any statistic: it can be skewed any way the person preparing it wants to skew it.


16 posted on 09/25/2012 6:48:35 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Arms really ARE for hugging!)
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To: PubliusMM
Take a look at the absentee ballot numbers coming in across Ohio---I'm not going to post them all again, bu the Rs are ovet performing, sometimes by huge margins, their 2008 percentages and the Dems ar underperforming 2008. Heck, in some cases the GOP is surpassing 2010 levels. Just one example: Warren Co. Went for McCain 2:1 . . . But the r/D absentees are coming in at a rate of five to one .

Now, anything can change and we've only looked at the main counties so far but they all are showing big gOP advantages and/or in Dem counties much smaller margins than what Obama needs to win.

17 posted on 09/25/2012 7:02:07 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: kearnyirish2

I doubt that McCain won have won in 2008 under any circumstance. A third-term in the presidency for any party is a historic rarity - Bush 41 was the first time (other than FDR) since 1928.

That said, the magnitude of McCain’s loss would have been considerably smaller without the financial meltdown - ironically caused by the RATS from the beginning. And several senate races would have been salvaged without the McCain undertow.

Once the meltdown occurred, the voters saw McCain as a mumbling, bumbling old man who couldn’t string 3 coherent sentences together and knew nothing about the economy.


18 posted on 09/25/2012 7:03:08 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: LS

Thank you, please keep us advised as to Ohio absentees and ground game.


19 posted on 09/25/2012 7:05:56 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: kearnyirish2

Until the scare tactics of the financial markets manipulation delivered the election to Obama a month or two before the election, McCain/Palin had it in the bag. Once people felt sufficiently threatened, and McCain couldn’t articulate a plan for anything other than “business as usual”, he was sunk. Up until that point, any Obama supporters I knew assumed Obama would lose (and it was close enough to indicate that was the truth).


BINGO!


20 posted on 09/25/2012 7:06:54 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: Revolting cat!

No internal polls here. I challenge you to look at the absentee #s, where Rs are dramatically doing better than 08. For ex, in Franklin Co, which Zero won by 21 points, the Rs have a 5,500 advantage and it’s grown week by week. These are public statistics and don’t require any mysterious formulas.


21 posted on 09/25/2012 7:11:44 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: mwl8787

“Once the meltdown occurred, the voters saw McCain as a mumbling, bumbling old man who couldn’t string 3 coherent sentences together and knew nothing about the economy.”

That is my point; until then much fewer people would have risked a socialist with a Muslim name (Obama was trailing consistently up until the meltdown). The same forces that drove desperate people to elect the unqualified unknown, now that things have gotten even worse, should suffice to depose him.


22 posted on 09/25/2012 7:12:21 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Red Steel
Another poll showing Obama up. Let the FReeper hand-wringing begin.

Sorry, I've been on my last roller coaster with these B.S. polls. You people want to lose sleep over them, you go right ahead. I'm not buying any of these polls.

23 posted on 09/25/2012 7:26:48 PM PDT by Artcore
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To: Kolath

And surprisingly, the McCain endorsement of Obama didn’t help him like he must have thought it would.


24 posted on 09/25/2012 7:35:56 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Imagine how bad these global protests would be, if Obama hadn't won us so many new friends.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Red Steel. G’night all.


25 posted on 09/25/2012 7:44:43 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Red Steel

>In addition to his role as Romney’s Ohio campaign chairman, Portman also serves as Romney’s debate sparring partner, a role at which he is so good, Romney claims, the GOP nominee sometimes wants “to kick him out of the room.”<

If Romney is relying on Portman, he’s going to lose Ohio. Portman is nothing but a milquetoast, Bush2 flunky, RINO.


26 posted on 09/25/2012 7:47:22 PM PDT by bimboeruption (Clinging to my Bible and my HK.)
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To: Revolting cat!

Sorry but I never heard the McCain campaign in 2008 talking about internal polls showing them winning... In fact I remember McCain himself saying that their polls are showing them 4 to 6 points behind...


27 posted on 09/25/2012 8:17:59 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: Artcore

What are you buying?


28 posted on 09/25/2012 8:18:12 PM PDT by chopperjc
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To: Conservative12345

Sorry, but what I remember and am seeing today, which was my entire point, is not how many points ahead or behind whoever is or was, but the worship here of the myth of internal and super secret (of course) polls as being more truthful and accurate than the polls of public organizations, as well as more favorable to our side’s loser candidates.


29 posted on 09/25/2012 8:31:03 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: Revolting cat!

Do you really believe that the media polls in this elections are accurate?...


30 posted on 09/25/2012 8:38:22 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: Conservative12345

Not at all. I believe that no polls are accurate.


31 posted on 09/25/2012 8:39:07 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: LS

I think another way to gauge whether Rs will carry Ohio is look at the cluster of counties (Williams, Defiance, Paulding, Henry, Fulton) in the northwestern part of the state, just west of Toledo. Bush swept that region with over 60 percent of the vote in each county, but McCain took a plunge and finished mostly in the mid 50s, plus he lost nearby Wood County that Bush carried. Actually, that might be the part of the state where GOP erosion was the most dramatic. If it came back our way, that would be a good sign.


32 posted on 09/25/2012 8:44:20 PM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Our Joe Wilson can take the Dems' Joe Wilson any day of the week)
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief

This morning Romney and Jack Nicklaus are campaigning at my childrens highschool in Westerville, Oh.

I see a NYT/CBS poll on Fox that has O-52 and R-44 in OH! There is no longer any doubt in my mind these polls are being used as a propaganda tool. There is simply NO WAY O is above 50% and 8 points ahead of R in the Buckeye State.
Eventually these polling firms will need to save face. I suspect an incredible surge by Romney in the last weeks....after early voting has ended.


33 posted on 09/26/2012 4:58:33 AM PDT by BuckeyeGOP
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To: Red Steel

Bump


34 posted on 09/26/2012 4:59:03 AM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
Ok, based on the spreadsheets below, here are the numbers so far in absentees. Fulton, Rs +21% over Ds (no numbers for 08, but hard to believe this isn't a big gain); Defiance, +3.2% (a 4% increase over 2008; Paulding, +16 (22% over 20008 but very small numbers so far); Williams, +25 (no 2008 numbers); with no numbers yet for Henry or Wood.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

(I think this is the same one http://tinyurl.com/bvfsb7u) (I'm html challenged)

Based on this, it would appear Romney is back up to Bush levels, and perhaps slightly above in a couple of cases.

35 posted on 09/26/2012 5:09:31 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
Ok, based on the spreadsheets below, here are the numbers so far in absentees. Fulton, Rs +21% over Ds (no numbers for 08, but hard to believe this isn't a big gain); Defiance, +3.2% (a 4% increase over 2008; Paulding, +16 (22% over 20008 but very small numbers so far); Williams, +25 (no 2008 numbers); with no numbers yet for Henry or Wood.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

(I think this is the same one http://tinyurl.com/bvfsb7u) (I'm html challenged)

Based on this, it would appear Romney is back up to Bush levels, and perhaps slightly above in a couple of cases.

36 posted on 09/26/2012 5:09:42 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Forgive the double post.


37 posted on 09/26/2012 5:11:37 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: BuckeyeGOP; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; Ravi; tatown; Perdogg; Red Steel; snarkytart; plushaye
As per the link above to absentees showing the Rs doing far better than 08:

All this is predicated on three assumptions: Rs vote R; Ds vote D; and Indies at least split 50/50.

If suddenly we start seeing all sorts of data that Indies are going for Obama, even by a few points, then in fact all the drive-by polls will look more accurate. On the other hand, if Romney (as he has in some polls) has a 5-15% Indie lead, I don't see how as of now any of these OH polls are accurate.

Is anyone seeing consistent polling with Zero up among Indies?

Again, refer to the spreadsheet above and help the guy out with numbers if you can by e-amiling him data at rockets.stats@gmail.com.

38 posted on 09/26/2012 5:36:12 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

The Gravis poll yesterday confirmed once more Romney was doing very well with indies.


39 posted on 09/26/2012 5:37:49 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief

Then there you go. Unfathomable why these idiot pollsters can’t look at the R/D splits. Have you looked at this spreadsheet? Galactic Overlord-In-Chief suggested we look at Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Paulding, Williams, Wood counties, where Bush hit 60% in 04, and where McCain had a 5% dropoff in 08. These are all back to 04 numbers, some above, although some of the numbers are small.


40 posted on 09/26/2012 5:42:10 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Revolting cat!

I haven’t seen anybody talking about secret polls.

I have seen people (including me) look at the internals of the MSM polls, do a little research on historical data, build our own spreadsheets, reverse engineer the MSM propaganda and understand the game the media is playing.

Nothing secret here just a little knowledge of math needed.


41 posted on 09/26/2012 7:27:32 AM PDT by Leto
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To: LS

If you go to this link on David Leip’s website and wave your mouse arrow over the “Swing” button, it shows how far Ohio’s counties have swung Democrat from 2004. As you’ll see, the swing in NW Ohio was the biggest, so a strong GOP return from there will likely mean O is cooked.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=39&f=1&off=0&elect=0

Thanks for the links. Some of the absentee counts are very low, but I did find a few that were interesting.

Williams County: Rs up 36%-11% with 1472 ballots requested. That county’s on the Ohio/Indiana border and had one of the steepest dropoffs from Bush to McCain. In 04, it gave 65% to Bush, but in 08, it plunged to just 54% for McCain. This is one of the NW Ohio counties I mentioned earlier. I’m guessing this is historical GOP territory that swings when the economy gets sour, kind of like NE Indiana is.

1,472 ballots for a county that cast 18,396 votes in 08 is nothing to sneeze at. I’m sure more will be coming, but it’s substantial compared to the other absentee numbers we’re seeing.

I’ve also noticed the absentees from Licking County. Bush: 62%, McCain: 57%. This county looks like part of the outer suburban ring of Columbus. Licking has 11,616 requests so far, compared to 29,208 in 08. In 08, Rs had a 0.37% advantage over Ds. Right now, they have a 15.85% advantage over Ds. And there are similar large spikes in Union and Pickaway counties, also part of Columbus metro, where it looks like about a fourth of the 08 absentee totals have come in so far.

This trend would seem to confirm the GOP lead in Franklin County (city of Columbus) so far. I wish the site had the absentees for Franklin in 08, because that would be really telling. I don’t expect Romney to actually carry Franklin (I think only Portman actually won it in 2010 among the GOP statewide winners) but he doesn’t have to. He just has to hold his loss to single digits. (I suspect Obama’s inflated 59% was largely due to the “yuts” from the university and higher black turnout. By contrast, Kerry got 54% and Strickland in 2010 got 53%)

Granted, this could change, but as each day passes, Dems would have to make up an increasing number of the remaining absentees to turn it around, and then they would have to make up a huge number of the voters on Election Day. In other words, Obama would need a huge “hidden vote” to propel him to victory. Given all the anecdotal evidence I’ve been reading of much fewer Obama signs out there, it must be hidden indeed!


42 posted on 09/26/2012 8:54:38 AM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief (Our Joe Wilson can take the Dems' Joe Wilson any day of the week)
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To: Red Steel

“For the Romney campaign, Tuesday brought yet more bad news from the Buckeye state: a new Washington Post poll showed the Republican presidential nominee trailing President Barack Obama ...”

I’m sure the Romney campaign is really troubled by Washington Post polls. Or do you suppose the Romney campaign has its own polls run by people who actually know what they’re doing?


43 posted on 09/26/2012 9:03:11 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: Galactic Overlord-In-Chief

Great analysis. I’ve asked for some other input from a GOP pollster.


44 posted on 09/26/2012 9:06:57 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Red Steel

People who ignore or dismiss MSM polls are being stupid.

First, the MSM polls can be reinterpreted by changing the internals. For instance, if a poll is released with Obama up by 5 but with D+11 the results can be adjusted to show reality (so adjust for a D+2 assumption)

Second, these polls are being used to manipulate public opinion. The only worthwhile figure in that WaPo poll is the one showing 60% think Romney is running a crappy campaign. That’s far enough outside the MoE and MoM (margin of manipulation) that it’s a real issue (just a 52% one, not a 60% one). It shows that people are buying the incompetant Romney Campaign narrative.


45 posted on 09/26/2012 9:14:41 AM PDT by tanknetter
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