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Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?
The New York Times ^ | September 27, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 09/27/2012 2:51:19 PM PDT by BurningOak

There’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst polling days of the year on Wednesday.

It began with a series of polls from The New York Times, CBS News and Quinnipiac University, released early Wednesday morning, which gave President Obama leads of between 9 and 11 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Later in the day, Mr. Romney got polls showing unfavorable numbers for him in Colorado and Iowa.

Unlike many recent days, when Mr. Obama’s national polls were slightly less euphoric than his swing state surveys, Wednesday’s national polls seemed to support the notion that Mr. Obama has a clear lead in the race. The Gallup national tracking poll gave Mr. Obama a six-point lead among registered voters, close to his high mark on the year in that survey. The online tracking poll conducted by Ipsos gave him a six-point lead among likely voters. Another online tracking poll, from the RAND Corporation, put Mr. Obama’s lead at roughly seven and a half percentage points, his largest of the year in that poll. And a national poll for Bloomberg produced by the pollster J. Ann Selzer, who has a strong track record, put Mr. Obama six points ahead.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; nyslimes; obama; polls; romney; slimes
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This is a semi-vanity, would not normally post a NYT puff piece for Obama, but I am really anxious and need reassurance. The consensus from numerous polls seems to be that Romney is slipping, and that Obama may be reelected (RIP USA). I am suspicious of polls, but they reflect what I see in real life, people don't like Obama but have no love for Romney. It is not enough for people to dislike or even hate Obama, they need to be passionate about Romney, and I am worried that the "anyone but Obama" crowd will suffer same fate as the "anyone but Bush" crowd did. Can we win an election with an unlikable RINO on the ticket?

Am I wrong? Am I falling for enemy propaganda?

The longer this election cycle goes, the more I am convinced that Palin refusing to run was a national tragedy.

1 posted on 09/27/2012 2:51:25 PM PDT by BurningOak
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To: BurningOak

The polls are BS. Don’t pay too much attention to them. Check this:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/


2 posted on 09/27/2012 2:53:53 PM PDT by BootsOfEscaping
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To: BurningOak

Am I wrong? Am I falling for enemy propaganda?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Yes. Yes, you are. All day long Rush and others have been having a field day as they tear apart this bogus NYT poll.


3 posted on 09/27/2012 2:54:46 PM PDT by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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To: BurningOak

What about 2010?


4 posted on 09/27/2012 2:55:11 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: BurningOak

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/27/why-the-q-poll-is-a-qrock-new-york-post/

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/26/point-of-clarification-on-my-2012-turnout-piece-and-the-white-voter/


5 posted on 09/27/2012 2:55:28 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: BootsOfEscaping

Why hasn’t that table at unskewedpolls.com been updated in days? There have been multiple new polls that aren’t included.


6 posted on 09/27/2012 2:56:05 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: BurningOak

The organization that conducted this poll, Quinnepec, even admitted the sample unreasonably overweighed Dems. Don’t worry. Follow Rasumssen - they were the most accurate in 2010 and they have it even.


7 posted on 09/27/2012 2:57:10 PM PDT by circlecity
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To: BurningOak; Admin Moderator
Actually, I think you are a concern troll.

Welcome to Free Republic.

/johnny

8 posted on 09/27/2012 2:57:57 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: BurningOak
Am I wrong? Am I falling for enemy propaganda?

Read this thread below and get back to us:

Be Confident! The Election is About Obama

9 posted on 09/27/2012 2:58:04 PM PDT by CedarDave (Presstitutes: Journalists who refuse to ask hard questions and who report by omission or distortion)
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To: BurningOak
Print this and look at it when you are reading those ridiculously skewed and libelous poll articles.


10 posted on 09/27/2012 2:58:47 PM PDT by COUNTrecount (What Clint Said !!!)
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To: BurningOak

Will Nate survive the shame and embarrassment that’s coming his way in November?


11 posted on 09/27/2012 3:00:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: BurningOak

The left (and the NYT is part of the left’s media arm) are doing what they always do when their backs are to the wall-spin, spin, spin-in other words, lie. They did this same thing before Reagan defeated Carter. They are deliberately trying to create the perception they want rather than report the one which exists. One way to know this is to look into all the “micros”-ie, a majority of the middle class supports Romney, a majority reports that they trust Romney with the economy (the major issue) rather than Obama or the ‘rats, etc. Now, how can things like these be true, yet it also be true (using weighted polls, yet) that Obama is handily winning? It’s easier for the Obama media to spin the “overall” polls because they know most people don’t pay attention to the details which are showing the opposite.


12 posted on 09/27/2012 3:01:45 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: BurningOak
Nate Silver: "Could 2012 Be Like 2008?"


13 posted on 09/27/2012 3:02:06 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What is there no Gallup number today? It’s 6 pm eastern, and no Gallup number.

Could it be that they are having to scramble to make it “right”?


14 posted on 09/27/2012 3:02:26 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: CedarDave

That is a good one, I need to start listening again.


15 posted on 09/27/2012 3:02:42 PM PDT by BurningOak (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2830849/reply?c=1)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nate Silver, by the way, is a fag. Not to put too fine a point on it.


16 posted on 09/27/2012 3:04:34 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: JRandomFreeper

I didn’t like to be suspicious right off the bat, but I was thinking the same. It’s waaayyy too early and the polls waaayyy too obviously skewed-especially to mostly politically savvy Freepers-for this kind of “woe is me”.


17 posted on 09/27/2012 3:04:34 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: BurningOak
gave Mr. Obama a six-point lead among registered voters

Pay attention to who they're asking, then factor in the turnout model. This poll is utter trash.

18 posted on 09/27/2012 3:05:39 PM PDT by Da Bilge Troll (Defeatism is not a winning strategy!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Romney crushes Obama Nate will need to find new job. That said its not like these people care about being wrong or even outright liars.


19 posted on 09/27/2012 3:08:01 PM PDT by BurningOak (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2830849/reply?c=1)
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To: BurningOak
Am I wrong? Am I falling for enemy propaganda?

Sounds like it. Obama isn't re-electable by any stretch of the imagination. The only question in my mind, is what Romney will do, once in office. If his past performance is any clue to his future performance, then Lord be with us.

The longer this election cycle goes, the more I am convinced that Palin refusing to run was a national tragedy.

It absolutely was. She would have easily mopped the floor with Obama, and set this country on a course to real restoration. I'm not ashamed to admit that I actually wept for my country on the day she stood down.

I firmly believe that she determined the course of future events in this country with that one personal decision. I've often wondered if she herself realizes that. I have to believe that she does, and that she will find a way to answer the call to greatness in the coming years. That's if we can survive what's coming.

20 posted on 09/27/2012 3:10:17 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: ConservativeDude

Isn’t that pretty much a requirement for a job like his nowadays? That, or be a militant Muslim. See: Shep Smith, Anderson “My mom’s Gloria Vanderbilt” Cooper, Rachel Maddow, Keithy, most everyone else at MSNBC and CNN, etc., etc.


21 posted on 09/27/2012 3:18:14 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: BurningOak
Could 2012 Be Like 2008?

************

More like.... 1980!!
On steroids...

jmho...

22 posted on 09/27/2012 3:18:35 PM PDT by Wings-n-Wind (The main things are the plain things!)
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To: Windflier

Yeah I wish things were different...

Wiser man than myself once said that a man cannot chose his destiny, but he can chose to embrace or ignore it. Maybe in some alternative dimension Palin is up on Obama by 20 points, with Nate Silver desperately skewing data to show Obama still has a shot at Illinois.


23 posted on 09/27/2012 3:20:42 PM PDT by BurningOak (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2830849/reply?c=1)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

sure seems to be the case....


24 posted on 09/27/2012 3:22:13 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: BurningOak
Wiser man than myself once said that a man cannot chose his destiny, but he can chose to embrace or ignore it.

Not so. I choose my own destiny every morning when I get out of bed. Palin could have chosen to run, which would have resulted in her winning the White House. That she didn't, remains a mystery to us, but it's a destiny she clearly held within her grasp.

As I said before, that path is still open to her, should she ever choose to walk it.

25 posted on 09/27/2012 3:35:19 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: BurningOak; SunkenCiv; Clintonfatigued; Impy; InterceptPoint; randita; Political Junkie Too; ...
Talk show host Michael Medved has a theory, backed by historical statistics, that an incumbent president has to get a greater percentage of the vote in his re-election bid than he did in his previous election in order to win another term. (He can't win unless he gains new adherents.) It's quite obvious that Obama has lost at least some public support from 2008, what with the continuing recession and his pro-Islamic foreign policy, not to mention a slew of other issues. And nothing seems to have changed in the 'rats favor since the spanking they got in the congressional elections in '10. Does anyone know anyone who did not support Zero in '08 and is voting for him this year? Such folks are extremely rare, vastly outnumbered by '08 Obama voters who are disillusioned with him and are either switching to the GOP or staying home this time around.

The main problem with the Slimes' numbers is that they are based on turnout models comparable to '08, when registered 'Rats enjoyed a 7-point advantage in turnout. But Republicans are much more energized than 'rats this time around, so those models are grossly skewed so that the results falsely spit out an Obama edge and a better than realistic likelihood of his winning. The reason for the unrealistic models and skewed polling results is to try to demoralize us. The left media - of which the New York Slined is a key component - is acting in concert to do just that, possibly on orders from their pals at the White House. Don't fall for the deliberately phony statistical tricks employed by the lefty pollsters! See unskewedpolls.com for a more objective assessment.

26 posted on 09/27/2012 3:46:22 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: BurningOak
Can we win an election with an unlikable RINO on the ticket?

Romney is more and more reminding me of a Republican John Kerry. People wanted Bush out, but there was no way they could vote for FaceMelt.

27 posted on 09/27/2012 4:13:22 PM PDT by montag813
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To: justiceseeker93
But Republicans are much more energized than 'rats this time around

That's the whole thing right there-and the left and their media arm know it too-these skewed polls are their attempt to de-energize Republicans and fed-up independents. How in the world would Hussein have more support now, after what's happened to the economy under him, than he did when all he had to do was spout "hype and change" to the clueless voters, and he was a blank slate to the uninformed?
28 posted on 09/27/2012 4:13:55 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: BurningOak

Keep in mind Nate Silver is a homosexual activist. Like Andrew Sullivan in 2008, it is pretty clear Silver sexual politics are playing more of a role in his analysis then any honest appraisal of the facts.

Take a look around. Do you see anything in your day to day life that shows Obama doing as well with voters in 2012 as he did in 2008?

Currently Silver’s analysis is more about influencing votes then then predicting them. In late Oct he is either going to have to dramatically walk back his claims or be rending a pathetic joke.

Take a look at Rassmussen and ignore all the other polling. Rass was the most accurate poll in 2008.


29 posted on 09/27/2012 4:17:11 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: BurningOak

Here’s what you need to do.

Contact some of the GOP chairs in various counties in the swing states. Ask them what they’ve been hearing from the Romney campaign.

The answer will calm your fears.


30 posted on 09/27/2012 4:21:45 PM PDT by reasonisfaith (Why do you seek the living among the dead? (Luke 24:5))
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To: BurningOak
Here maybe this will help you understand why Silver spinning of the polling is such a disastrous mistake for his future credibility. He is falling into a classic garbage in-garbage out analytical trap.

Photobucket

31 posted on 09/27/2012 4:22:28 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: reasonisfaith

LOL, because I’m sure the campaign heads are going to admit to every random person who calls them and might be from the media that the campaigns are having problems.


32 posted on 09/27/2012 4:23:10 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: BurningOak

Those are not reliable polling organizations.

It only matters if you’re polling likely voters.


33 posted on 09/27/2012 4:32:57 PM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: BurningOak
Those of us who fought hard against Romney in the primary could see all of this coming. I beat the drum that he was virtually unelectable due to his MANY weak points and flaws.

The article that perhaps convinced me the most how unelectable he was was this one from the Weekly Standard, especially the line I quoted below in bold. Personal charisma is SO important in a presidential election. It was obvious and proven that Mitt didn't have it. So is political skill. That's why Gingrich was the best choice. He had already proven his ability to win great popularity in a national election.

Whatever you think of his political views, Mitt's just an awful candidate and always has been. A lot of people in the party and so-called conservatives in the media just plain lied to the rank and file to push him through. Appropriate revenge needs to be taken after the election.

Overestimating Romney
Aside from getting votes, he’s a great candidate.
Dec 19, 2011, Vol. 17, No. 14 • By JONATHAN V. LAST

"Romney has the least-impressive electoral history of any Republican frontrunner in a very long time." "Romney has faced voters in 22 contests. He won 5 of those races and lost 17 of them." Against Kennedy, "Romney lost by 17 points in what turned out to be the best year for Republicans in more than half a century."

Romney won governor with UNDER 50% of the vote in a 3-way race. "After three years in office, Romney’s approval rating was so low that he was forced to abandon hope of reelection. Romney’s term concluded with a Democrat winning the governor’s office for the first time in 20 years."

"As Romney began campaigning more actively, voters became less favorably disposed toward him." "No matter where he’s run, whether in primaries or statewide elections, he’s never sold particularly well."

34 posted on 09/27/2012 4:35:02 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: JediJones

Just do this. Speak to them in a forthright manner, telling the truth about your concern for this country.

Then ask them are things as bad as the polls make it seem.

You will get real information from them, and you will see what liars the pollsters are.

Just try it.


35 posted on 09/27/2012 4:38:34 PM PDT by reasonisfaith (Why do you seek the living among the dead? (Luke 24:5))
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To: montag813
Romney is more and more reminding me of a Republican John Kerry. People wanted Bush out, but there was no way they could vote for FaceMelt.

I made the same point in another thread today...

It feels to me more like 2004, just reversed politically. We have an incumbent who is very unpopular with a very vocal segment of voters, with solid but unspectacular support from his own base. And we have an older, less charismatic challenger from Massachusetts who has an unlikable personality and is making awkward gaffes that are being jumped on by the opposition.

36 posted on 09/27/2012 4:39:26 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: reasonisfaith

I’m not dispirited by the polls. I think there’s still time for a good candidate to improve the campaign and move up in the polls. But I am dispirited by the fact that I’ve studied and observed Romney’s political history for a while now, and I don’t believe he is capable of doing what he needs to do to win. The situation in the country is terrible though, and gas prices more than anything should make it really hard for him to lose. But he just might be a bad enough candidate to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


37 posted on 09/27/2012 4:43:01 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: JediJones

Bush had a 53% approval rating on election day 2004, Obama does not.


38 posted on 09/27/2012 4:44:58 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: JediJones
I’ve studied and observed Romney’s political history

Well apparently you slept thru the 2012 primaries then.

39 posted on 09/27/2012 4:45:54 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: JediJones
Those of us who fought hard against Romney in the primary

Thank you for at least finally being honest. Your crusade against Romney here has more to do with your sour grapes that your candidate did not win the 2012 GOP nomination rather then any honest appraisal of the facts.

40 posted on 09/27/2012 4:47:40 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: BurningOak

Get your ass working for Romney’s election. Make calls, give money, do something. If you’re in a defeated attitude, that is what the economic terrorists want—they want you so frickin’ depressed, you throw up your hands and surrender.

I don’t know who said it, but it is good:

“Anxiety does not empty tomorrow of its sorrows, but only empties today of its strength.”

Be strong. The pollsters are assuming more Democrats than there were in 2008. Nate Silver is a partisan.

Do something positive and you’ll feel better. And you’ll be part of the solution. When victory comes, you’ll be able to say “I did something to make it happen!”


41 posted on 09/27/2012 4:55:47 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: MNJohnnie
more to do with your sour grapes that your candidate did not win the 2012 GOP nomination rather then any honest appraisal of the facts.

I'm not on a crusade against Romney. I've praised him when he's done the right thing, like speaking out against the Egyptian embassy statement.

The fact that I'm not a Romney fan helps me to be objective about his candidacy. I'm not a cheerleader for him. And the fact that the reality now is lining up with what I predicted back then gives me even more credibility.

I don't have "sour grapes." By the same token, my dislike of Obama is not related to "sour grapes" that McCain didn't win. My opinions on the candidates come from an objective analysis on who would be good for the country. I am voting for Romney because he'll be slightly better than Obama. Just slightly.

42 posted on 09/27/2012 4:57:52 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: MNJohnnie

Nice.


43 posted on 09/27/2012 4:58:36 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper
“Anxiety does not empty tomorrow of its sorrows, but only empties today of its strength.”

Charles Spurgeon.

44 posted on 09/27/2012 5:00:36 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: JediJones
If Romney is so pathetic why did he wipe the floor up with your uber political genius Newt?

Face it, your "analysis" is all based on nothing stronger then your ego and sour grapes that Newt lost. Get over it. Even your master Newt is working to elect Romney now.

45 posted on 09/27/2012 5:01:08 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: BurningOak

Romney is not unlikable, not at all. Perhaps to the dark, scary, ugly, DUmmie side, but don’t put yourself there. Romney is a good man. Stay in the light.


46 posted on 09/27/2012 5:09:36 PM PDT by EnquiringMind
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To: MNJohnnie
My "master" Newt is also giving his honest opinion on Romney's missteps, just like I am. He criticized Romney's new ad that praised Obama as being "for the poor and the middle class" on CNN yesterday. He said it doesn't help Romney and he has no clue why they would release an ad like that.

Face it, "sour grapes" is a BS accusation that holds no water. You can just as easily say everyone on FR only hates Obama because of "sour grapes" over McCain losing. It's an incredibly dumb thing to say in either case. What I've said about Romney was the same before and after the primary. How could I have had "sour grapes" about him before the primary even took place?

47 posted on 09/27/2012 5:10:09 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: COUNTrecount

When did Glen have this rally? 2010?


48 posted on 09/27/2012 5:13:42 PM PDT by EnquiringMind
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To: COUNTrecount

When did Glen have this rally? 2010?


49 posted on 09/27/2012 5:14:10 PM PDT by EnquiringMind
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To: JediJones

Sorry but I cannot take seriously anyone who states their emotion based opinions as fact without first acknowledging their basis for doing so.

That is intellectually dishonest.


50 posted on 09/27/2012 5:18:01 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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