Posted on 09/28/2012 7:40:27 AM PDT by LS
Six percent in Cuyahoga is a huge Romney win. This county went for Obama by 26.
Can't agree with you there. His base will vote for him no matter what...but just his base.
I think there are five or six and you’ll be able to know after early voting is over who will win: Cuyahoga (if Dems aren’t up over 15 they’re in trouble); Montgomey (Dems need to win by 3-4%; Warren (GOP has to win this about 2:1); Hamilton (GOP needs to win by 5-10 depending on Cuyahoga); and Franklin. Personally, I think if the GOP is even just slightly down in Franklin, Romney wins. McCain lost this by 21 points.
Very well said. Totally agree.
There are some who will vote for him no matter what, but Obama does not have the registered democrat vote locked up at all. Multiple polls show the blue dogs (blue collar whites) are abandoning him in droves.. 20% or more are telling pollsteres they are going to vote for Romney... Now, Blue Collar Whites are the SINGLE BIGGEST DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUENCY, if Obama is losing 1 in 5 of them, there is no a chance in hell he’s got his base!
I was digging through the election results for the state yesterday, between 2008 and 2011, and I discovered that in 2008 and 2010 there were 8.0 million registered voters in the state. With the from Democrat to Republican in both the governorship and more importantly the Sec. of state positions there has been an effort to clean the voter rolls in the state.
As of 2011, the overall registered voters in the state were DOWN by 300,000 through out the state and as of the primaries this year it was showing 7.7 million voters.
Now that the Sec. of State is Republican this time around and supported by a Republican Governor IMO its going to make a difference this time by making it harder to have any precincts turn up with 110% voter turnout in places like Cleveland.
Add to that the fact that the absentee ballots requests by Dems seem to be down 8% from 37% in 2008 with Republicans AB requests up 5% from 2008......
I just can't see how there could even be a 10%+ Obozo in the polls....unless something really weird is happening with the independent voter in the state
...the numbers just don't add up.
Please feel free to correct me ...but I think my numbers are correct here.
My concerns are keeping it close in Franklin County and wondering if Mongomery might be a bellweather county indicating voter party enthusiasm and voter turnout overall in the state. (although I use to live in Northeastern Ohio - so what do I know)
Last month he spoke at Norfolk State University, an histprically black university. The local news talked up his visit for days prior to the event and on the day of the event there were still tickets available. In 2008 those tickets would have been snatched up in a day and there would have been thousands lining the streets cheering his motorcade. Not now. It's a completely different vibe.
The thrill is gone!
Oh, I completely agree. When I said 'his' base, I didn't meran the democrat base. In my mind they're 2 diferent things.
Oh, I completely agree. When I said 'his' base, I didn't mean the democrat base. In my mind they're 2 diferent things.
A good inidicator will be early voting here in VA. Technically, we just have absentee ballots, but in person absentee voting started this week. This year the GOP is finally pushing early voting.
Yes, I should have made a distinction. There will always be the hardcore Marxists who will vote for him, no question about that. The Occupy dead-enders, Union thigs, etc. But I think those who vote Democrat simply because they possess some vague Party affiliation will either stay home or will actually cross over in pursuit of change, i.e., the Country is on the wrong track.
Are there statistics out for early voting and for absentee ballots sent out in Virginia? I have not found a link to that data if it exists.
Thanks for the encouraging update. I hope this bodes well for Josh Mandel also.
Didn’t Obamugabe have 17,000 at a Milwaukee, Wisconsin rally last week? Hope I’m wrong, but I remember the MSM crowing all about that big time...
5k reported by rat media as 18k. They lie. Gee, who knew?
Good to know. Don’t like the info from Iowa so far...huge Dem advantage there, but that’s apparently normal. But the polling shows Obama with the lead there already.
The news everywhere else looks good though. Of course, Huff Post says not to predict anything based on these numbers, and no doubt early in-person voting will cut the numbers, but as long as the Dems don’t early vote in huge numbers, we should be fine. That’s my concern....will all this get erased as the Dems come out for early in-person voting. But, I doubt that will happen.
Wow.
Add me please.
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