Update: OH Absentees (looking good)

These are comparisons of early/absentee voting, but I always include the county final election margins so you can see the trends.

To me---and I know I'm almost alone here on FR---it is NOT too early to say that the across-the-board super-performance of Rs and the across-the-board underperformance of Dems is significant, meaningful, and fatal to Obama's campaign. If it were one or two counties, or if one was way up, and another way down, I'd be concerned that it wasn't showing anything. But when all the cattle are running in one direction, I think we call it a stampede.

You nailed OH. I've been here 27 years, but I come from AZ and it's all about two counties, Maricopa and Pinal (PHX and Tucson). But now Maricopa alone has 4+million people, so almost the whole rest of the state has to vote in lockstep the other way to offset Phoenix and its suburbs.

Looking at the OH map, there is county after county where McCain won, big, but the total votes are 20,000 or so. If you really analyze 2004, it came down to Hamilton---Cincy---did not go for McCain as it should and Franklin went for Obama by 21. Both of these are now reversed to absolute R plus numbers.

Montgomery is always one of the keys. It will go D, but I'm told that we're 5,000 from winning the county. If that's true, we're already very close to a "lock." Obama won the county by 17,500 votes. So, 5,000 seems like a lot, until you realize that it's really 2,500 flips/switches/non-votes.

Gee, I personally know three of those 2500 :)

I would hesitate to commit on such a conclusion given this data.

The problem is not that there is some sort of trend, its just that we can’t really compare the current early vote requests situation, with a month still to go, to the total of 2008, as we are comparing a partial data set to the full data set of 2008. There are missing variables here that aren’t in yet.

Its possible (even likely) that the trend so far established will end up, by the time the application window closes, with the total 2012 Republican absentee requests above those of 2008, and vice versa for Democrat ones. But we still can’t be sure of that.

Thanks for that info.....

Yesterday, I was listening to Rush Limbaugh as background noise and he quoted an article, didn't pay attention to where, but the article claims that since the last presidential election 490,000 register voters have been removed from the voter rolls in Ohio and 44% of those removed where in Cleveland.

Also good news.....My mom who lives part time in Summit county but is a registered voter in Florida, has been dragging several of her friends who have generally voted Democrat in the past but are leaning or thinking about voting for Romney to see that movie 2016. Four out of the five were horrified and are now voting Romney for sure (they in turn, have taken others of their acquaintance out to see the movie also) and the one who still was still thinking about voting for Obama ended up getting grilled the rest of the time they were together that day by the others who had just declared their votes for Romney.

In addition, my mother has gotten several of her friends to stop watching CNN and NBC for their news and to switch to FOX....now they run around telling people how the sampling is skewed...etc., etc. Mom just says she's enjoyed sitting back and watching her friends straighten the other one out with out grill her all the time and she's happy to have more like minded friends then she had before.

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