Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll O48/R46 (O49/R47 w/Leaners)
Posted on 09/29/2012 6:43:32 AM PDT by tatown
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
(Excerpt) Read more at m.rasmussenreports.com ...
All of the hand wringing on here is depressing.....
All is lost! Woe is me! Mitt is toast! Might as well shut down FR now and we can all just huddle in our bomb shelters, not to come out until the election is over.
I don’t know anything about Casey Jr’s opponent in PA. Other than his name is Tom Smith (and I READ that he has tea party ties). Since I never saw this race flagged by the GOP, I’m guessing they think it’s hopeless.
The GOP is all in for George Allen in VA. I have seen him appear with Romney and Ryan.
Wisconsin is a bit muddled. There you have Tommy Thompson who is WI famous, against a radical liberal from the US House, Tammy Baldwin. It’s a no-brainer as far as who would be a disaster, but Thompson is not tea party and often says things the tea party would not support. So how that cuts in terms of campaigning for him I don’t know.
But let me say this...Tommy Thompson is THE single most famous Wisconsinite in his home state, and it would look peculiar if the GOP thought it had to campaign with Tommy Thompson in order to beat back a radical lib from a single radical lib district in that state.
I think they believe there’s no hope for Bill Nelson’s opponent in FL, or very little, Connie Mack JR. Or, it could be they think if the famous name of Connie Mack in FL can’t stand on its own, the name of Romney or Ryan campaigning with him won’t cut it, either.
In MO, you have the GOP establishment ostracizing Todd Akin ever since his “legitimate rape” remark. They swear they will not support him, that he’s on his own. Newt Gingrich has announced support as has Jim DeMint, so we’ll see if that helps.
I read where a poll showed the Republican in MT with a small lead over Tester, the incumbent.
But would Romney or Ryan help a Montanan beat another Montanan if that candidate couldn’t do it by himself? Westerners tend to be very independent vs outsiders.
I saw something about ND being surprisingly close, like toss-up, when previously it was thought to be a sure gain. But again, how would an outsider campaigning there help. Outsiders with big names help in some types of places, but not so much in some others.
Many need to stop over-analyzing. This is not a major difference from the Ras polls from the past 3 days. Allowing daily fluctuations of 1-2 points rule your mood and heart rate will send you to the grave before Nov 6. Simply put, the media will not allow Romney to generate any polling momentum. It is their primary mission, and they have multiple plays in their play book to accomplish it. So gird yourself for 37 more days of polling angst.
What basis do you have that Casey Jr will be defeated in PA and that Nelson will lose in FL?
Why is Mitt in PA if all is lost???
He needs to go bold and do things that are so audacious and different that the media would have no choice but to cover it.
for example -
1. Newts idea of following obama everywhere - even w Ryan doing it and pointing out every obama failure.
2. Holding huge rally’s right in famous places or outside of obama fundraisers w the hollywood crowd.
3. Hold huge rallies or show up like Schott Brown did as big sports events.
GO BOLD AND BE DIFFERENT!
Romney needs some short repeatable memes. For instance, he could start saying he will get rid of all the “czars” and their bloated staffs on day one and immediately save “X” amount of dollars. This is something he could do without any delay or cooperation from anybody else, it should not be controversial, (got along without ‘em before we met ‘em, gonna get along without ‘em now), and allows a subtle stab at the Socialist/Communist sense because of the word Czar being associated with Russa in general.It is a meaningful gesture in many ways.There must be other things like this he could toss out there.
According to American Life Panel, the last few days shows more people shifting support from Obama to Romney than vice versa.
Reagan was NOT down 12 in mid-October.
The issue is not day to day movement it’s the fact that only a couple of weeks ago Ras had Obama stuck in the 43% to 45% range. Going into Election Day that would be a no brainer win for R&R. If on the other hand he’s truly now in a range of 46% to 48% I, along with others I’m sure, am not resting quite so easy. Still a long way to go with the debates on the horizon that change the dynamics substantially. Bottom line is that it ain’t over by a long shot but I’d feel better if Obama’s support were about 3 points lower.
Obama lies like a rug - and the crowd cheers and the media reports it verbatim. Obama can and does say anything - no matter how ridiculous - and the crowds cheer.
And when that isn’t enough they edit to create lies and then report it and when people catch them at this it’s only reported on already conservative sites.
I heard an Obama supporter on the radio the other day who said “the debt is the debt” and it was no big deal to him. Well, IF he even understands the dire consequences of the debt maybe he thinks he won’t be one of the ones paying it off. The protected class - the 47%.
47.9 + 45.6 + 2.9 + 3.6 = 100.0
The ONLY energy anywhere near Mitt Romney, ever, were his primary opponents, and now PAUL RYAN with a brain.
He has Ryan muzzled now, after dropping way too soon their great joint rallies early on, where we were having some fun and taking names.
What happened to “carpet bombing ads” and Paul Ryan dogging barack’s every appearance in every state, and the mountains of money.
Demographically the country is changing beneath you. Most producers won't see it till its too late. There are far more bottom feeders and non producers now. For every normal, productive person that swings away from Obama, there is 1.1+ young minorities who don't work and love what Hussein is selling (freebies).
My guess is we crossed the point of no return last election cycle. We may have a chance this time out, but I have my doubts. The mystery of the "skewed" polls resolves itself when you think about what I said about demographics. More white people than ever (particularly white men) will be voting for the Republican ticket - and it still won't be enough. We've basically already lost the country.
I live in NYS and I literally have not seen one ad from anyone. No bumperstickers, yard signs. ZILCH!
You would not even know an election is happening in NYC a month from now!
You seem to be pretty new, you should understand that why many of the folks here are hand wringers, a LOT of us know the numbers inside out, as well as the historical numbers.
If you think you can run BS on the Reagan/Carter race and not be challenged you are sorely mistaken, as yo saw when njwingut schooled you... ;)
The Establishment is curiously silent now, as they were during the primaries, having opened their wallets to Mitt, but not their mouths, unhelpful to any other contenders.
It’s as though they have gone over to the dark side, frankly, actively working against us by their passivity, unenthused about fighting against socialism and Marxism and only dragging out threads on investigations of huge cases, using up the clock.
You’re doom & gloom report conveniently left out the 2010 midterms when describing how demographic changes mean that the country has reached ‘a point of no return’. Don’t give me the liberal meme that midterms don’t count either. The fact is that there were the same number of D candidates as their were R candidates.
>> What basis do you have that Casey Jr will be defeated in PA and that Nelson will lose in FL? <<
You misinterpreted my post. Sorry for the obvious confusion. I think they will both win.
The mantra of “are you really going to vote for the same people who got us into this mess” didn’t exactly work too well for the Democrats in the 2010 midterms. And I don’t believe that Clinton’s mantra of “nobody could have fixed this mess in four years, not even me” will work any better in the 2012 election.
About two months after the 2010 midterms, I was visiting with my Aunt in Maryland when my Uncle passed away. She’s a loyal Democrat in her 70’s, and she didn’t know that I was a Conservative (my parents are Liberals, so she assumed I was too). She told me in a very worried tone of voice that if the economy didn’t turn around, then Obama would be a one termer.
She was obviously shaken by the fact that the GOP did so well in the midterms. She wasn’t angrily saying “Did people expect him to fix this mess in two years?” She accepted that the midterm results were a reaction to the fact that Obama did not improve things at all during the first half of his term, and that he was now in real trouble.
My point is that I don’t believe that middle of the road Democrats, in their heart of hearts, think Obama deserves a pass on the lousy job he’s done. These people had really high hopes for him, they expected results, they wanted his ability to get things done to match his ability to make good speeches.
Now all they’re left with is “well, maybe nobody could have fixed this mess in four years”. But do they really believe that? I don’t think so, and I think they’ll be voting for him strictly out of party loyalty, not because they think he deserves to be re-elected.
My Aunt’s lament is consistent with the lack of Obama yard signs, the small crowds he’s drawing, and the fact that he had to move his acceptance speech to a smaller venue. The enthusiasm just isn’t there, and all this MSM spin is designed to energize people like my Aunt as much as it’s designed to depress our side.
I’m not buying it.
I agree with you ...Republicans are demographically doomed. The other side has weeks to bus their people to the poles for early voting ...god only knows what kind of monkey business goes on with that ....conservatives just don’t have the numbers in the right states to win ........starting off with zero chance in California, NY, and Illinois is a heck of a hill to climb..... Texas soon will be transformed and the final absolute nail in the coffin... don’t know if it’s 8 or 12 years but that is coming ...
My curiosity now is if the country goes down in flames or just slowly descends into a giant size version of Mexico
I live in NYC and there is NOTHING! Maybe a bumper sticker or there but thats it.
The difference between 2008 is unreal.
I predict very low turnout in NYS. No one seems to even care here, its as if there is not even an election happening.
“Texas soon will be transformed and the final absolute nail in the coffin... dont know if its 8 or 12 years but that is coming ...”
With a special thank you to all those Republican, “conservative”, open-borders idiots who want to lecture us about how we need to stop opposing immigration and embrace the mass third-world invasion of our country since that is the “future of the party.” With friends like that, who needs enemies?
In Sept 2000 Gore was up by 12 points over Bush according to the polls. Believe them at your own peril.
Thank you, I was about to post that.
Yeah, to a large extent demographics is destiny
However, it is not as rock solid as you may think.
1. Only 60% of whites vote Republican
2. Depending on the state, as many as 40%+ of its Latino voters will vote Republican (e.g. Texas in 2004)
3. Sikhs are majority Republican voters
4. Cubans ditto
5. According to recent polls 35% of Jewish voters will pull the Republican handle in the polls
6. Hindus and Chinese voters are 35%+ Republican voting
7. 10% of African American voters are now Republican
Bottom line is that demographics can be destiny but we can certainly move a lot of these inherently conservative voting blocks over to us. A lot of it is perception
Half the country likes being poor or welcomes the idea.
If you would have told me four years ago Obama would have been this overtly bad and still have nearly 50% support I would have doubted it could be possible.
I am with you. I a still trying to wrap my head around the fact that in 2010 Obama was absolutely toxic. They did not want him near any candidate in a swing state. He had approvals in the high 30s across the board - from Ohio to Virginia. And now two years later, when things have gotten even worse, suddenly he’s loved and adored? I don’t buy it.
And about Clinton. Please. The guy campaigned for every big name Dem in 2010, from Deeds, Coakley, Corzine, Strickland, Barrett, and on and on. He lost every one. He could not even get his own wife elected in the Democrat party. He had no coattails for Al Gore. So I don’t buy this big swoon effect from Clinton. It’s BS!
I am not saying the pollsters are lying, certainly not Rasmussen. But something else is going on. Did two straight years of calling everyone a racist who didn’t agree with Obama, scare some voters? Did the anti Romney ads run all summer damage Romney to the point of no return, and Obama just the safer pick - even though they are not thrilled with Obama? I don’t know.
Nothing makes sense. Not the economic data, not the internals (where he is upside down). Nothing makes sense historically speaking.
It’s mind boggling.
For the life of me, I can not figure it out either. Like him or not, he seems to smart for this campaign and he seems like he really wanted this so what is he doing? Is there a strategy here? If so, I am not sure it's working. It's making me crazy.
What concerns me is that in almost all of the recent polls - even the heavily +D skewed polls, President Obama’s numbers are increasing.
Now, even Rasmussen is showing President Obama’s numbers approaching 50% - and this a month before the election!
It is long past time for Romney and Ryan to start campaigning hard - I mean why is Romney still doing fundraisers???
In the meantime, it is up to us to work hard on campaigns and while also starting to think real seriously about how we might have to fight back against President Obama and a Democratic Senate in 2013 and beyond.
PS: Based on detailed information published yesterday on FR on the Rasmussen internals where Obama was 48% Romney 47% and Romney leads 4% among independents, I did the calculations and it shows that Rasmussen is using democrats + 5 over Republicans in his sample... To be more exact it is 37% democrats, 32% Republicans, and 31% Independents...
47 - 39 = 8
Start? They have been stumping all over.
What's happening over the last couple days is that they're now debate prepping and allowing the MSM to drive up their pretty boy's numbers 2% as though it's a 20% lead or something. The media is throwing everything they have at Romney and all they can get Obama is a 2% lead?
Now watch...our side is allowing it to happen so R/R can shine in the debates. Masses of people have no idea who R/R really are. Well, they're about to find out...and the MSM is terrified.
Not cell phones...Obamaphones.
Look at this today from USA Today/Gallup:
USA Today/ Gallup Poll: GOP Opens Up 16% Enthusiasm Lead over Dems. The poll of 1,446 adults, taken Monday through Thursday, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
GOP regains enthusiasm edge. 64% of Reps are more enthusiastic than usual v. 48% of Dems.
In an Adult poll, Oct 14-16 2004: “Only 51% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in previous years, compared to 71% of Democrats, marking a shift from October 2004, when enthusiasm was about the same for both partisan groups.”
So, pre-election 2004, Dem and Rep enthusiasm were equal, and Republicans won
In 2008, Dem=71%, Rep=51% enthusiastic, and Democrats won
In 2012, Dems=48%, Reps = 64% enthusiastic, and who will win??
Using D+5 turnout is ludicrous.
Oops: meant to type:
“In an Adult poll, Oct 14-16 2008”
No edit key? :)
The mantra of are you really going to vote for the same people who got us into this mess didnt exactly work too well for the Democrats in the 2010 midterms.
The only reason Republicans won in 2010 is because the Democrats didn’t vote. They will be voting this time around. Not to the extent of 2008 but they will vote.
Santorum would have won the election with Pennsylvania. I am sick of you liberals claiming because he lost in 2006 along with every other Republican by the way, that he would not win the state. Stop with your liberal crap!
“You may believe that sincerely, but you have absolutely no evidence to support that statement. I’m not even a Mitt Romney fan, but it was obvious to me that Newt Gingrich is nothing more than an inside-the-Beltway @sshole who has absolutely no credentials, executive experience or any other attributes that would indicate any competency in the White House.
The guy couldn’t even see his roles in his two biggest Federal positions to completion — having stepped down as House Speaker in 1998 before resigning from his House seat in 1999. For this guy to crawl out from the swamp of Washington D.C. 13 years later and present himself as a credible presidential candidate was a complete joke.
I hate to be the one to break this to you, but a lot of these people (I’ll even include Rick Santorum in the mix) see the Federal government as an enormous industry, and they make careers out of lobbying Congress and occasionally launching a pointless “political campaign” for the sole purpose of promoting themselves and living at the expense of campaign donors for months at a time.
Say what you want about Romney, but you’d have a hard time including him in that group of hacks.”
Romney was the weakest candidate of them all, the proof being that his record closely resembles Obama’s. If you seriously believe Romney is a better candidate, I question your credibility as a conservative. Romney does not offer a real alternative, and any voter who learns more about Romney who isn’t a slave MittBot will probably seriously consider just sitting at home.
Newt, on the other hand, offered a serious alternative insomuch that he had big ideas that he was able to defend. Romney is fighting a campaign of being as moderate as possible to not offend the indepedents, while occasionally preaching to the choir to keep the base happy. Even Paul Ryan came out endorsing gays in the military, “it’s time to move on” he said. There’s no way Newt would be running that kind of a campaign right now.
Real winners win because they act like winners, because they move with confidence and because they lead others to follow them. That’s why Reagan can win being a uber conservative, or Sarah Palin can win being a uber conservative. But the RINOs don’t understand this and look at politics as a carefully scripted game where you have to appeal to each group in different ways. So suddenly people in Virginia receive stuff in the mail from the Romney campaign promising that he will do more about Lyme disease than Obama. And so it goes.
Reagan was down 8, not[ 12, as I said.
I agree using D+5 is totally ridiculous... Even Rasmussen is afraid to use R=D which is the most probable scenario on November 6 2012...
Exactly what I’m thinking as well.