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Report: USA Today/ Gallup Poll: GOP Opens Up 16% Enthusiasm Lead over Dems
Twitter ^ | Saturday, September 29, 2012 | Susan Page

Posted on 09/29/2012 11:12:19 AM PDT by kristinn

New USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: GOP regains enthusiasm edge. 64% of Reps are more enthusiastic than usual v. 48% of Dems. http://usat.ly/QyKk3a (Link goes to USA Today/ Gallup poll results. Enthusiasm gap buried in article.)


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; obama; polls; romney
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1 posted on 09/29/2012 11:12:23 AM PDT by kristinn
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To: Jet Jaguar

ping


2 posted on 09/29/2012 11:16:28 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: kristinn

And so the NYT/Quinnipiac/CBS polls justify their D+9% skew because....?


3 posted on 09/29/2012 11:17:27 AM PDT by montag813
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To: JPG

“Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. In general, though, the results show an electorate that is less excited and less engaged than in recent presidential elections.”


4 posted on 09/29/2012 11:19:46 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: mrs9x

well, well, well...

it’s seems it’s going to come down to who shows up..


5 posted on 09/29/2012 11:21:42 AM PDT by Chuzzlewit
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To: kristinn

Flashback October 13 2008 - Gallup



PRINCETON, NJ -- Only 51% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in previous years, compared to 71% of Democrats, marking a shift from October 2004, when enthusiasm was about the same for both partisan groups.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111115/democrats-election-enthusiasm-far-outweighs-republicans.aspx
6 posted on 09/29/2012 11:22:19 AM PDT by o2bfree
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To: kristinn

This may be why the MSM is desperately pushing the meme that Romney has already lost. They want to dispirit our side so less Republican/Tea Party voting will even out the unenthused Democrats who may bother to vote. I think this strategy is enraging our side and making them chomp at the bit to vote. IMHO, it’s not about Romney, it’s ABO and bring down the MSM at the same time.


7 posted on 09/29/2012 11:23:22 AM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: Chuzzlewit

It also depends on how the pollsters are defining a “likely voter.” My guess is that a lot of polling outfits are defining a likely voter as someone who voted in 2008. I subit that a large number of people who voted in 2008 are not going to show up this election.


8 posted on 09/29/2012 11:25:03 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: plushaye; LS

Rising GOP enthusiasm could be a Tea Party backlash against media-driven poll reporting meant to depress turnout/support for Romney.


9 posted on 09/29/2012 11:27:53 AM PDT by kristinn (Dump the Chump in 2012)
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To: kristinn

Do NOT trust the media, nor the polls. Not even the ones that apparently bear good news.

The real thing to do is GET OUT AND VOTE like your life depends on it!


10 posted on 09/29/2012 11:28:25 AM PDT by VRWCRick
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To: montag813

It makes all the bedwetters out there happy


11 posted on 09/29/2012 11:29:36 AM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: plushaye

That’s exactly what I’ve thought when seeing these weighted polls, especially in light of the answers to other questions in polls that don’t line up with these results. The ‘rats have already known that there’s an enthusiasm gap and those polls were intended to suppress it, but as time elapses and that strategy doesn’t work they will have to get more in line with reality or lose credibility. They have been working in the “free time” they had to depress the Republican vote.


12 posted on 09/29/2012 11:33:19 AM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: italianquaker

Don’t count on it, nothing makes them happy.


13 posted on 09/29/2012 11:33:43 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: kristinn

What LS and others have presented here at FR, and what seems to be trending is a definite “enthusiasm gap” in the absentee ballots requests for Ohio. It’s definitely not showing a 2008 pattern (so far). This might be the first concrete indication of a Republican wave developing that is more like a 2004/2010 turnout model.


14 posted on 09/29/2012 11:42:49 AM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: VRWCRick

“Do NOT trust the media, nor the polls. Not even the ones that apparently bear good news.

The real thing to do is GET OUT AND VOTE like your life depends on it!”

Exactly. I would only add that your life, and your kids’ lives do depend on it.


15 posted on 09/29/2012 11:42:51 AM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: plushaye; All; LS

Everyone ought to have a gander at the ohio spreadsheet today. Keepin it close in cuyahoga and gaining further in Hamilton and Franklin. Very interesting.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Repubs have already requested 5,000 more absentee ballots this year compared to 2008 in Cuyahoga. Need you cuyahoga repubs and indies to keep it close enough there.


16 posted on 09/29/2012 11:47:41 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: kristinn

We’re winning independents...

We’re more enthusiastic....

We’re about equal in numbers...

HOW THE HELL DO THE POLLS SHOW US LOSING? I smell BS. Romney is going to win


17 posted on 09/29/2012 11:57:06 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: kristinn

Rising GOP enthusiasm could be a Tea Party backlash against media-driven poll reporting meant to depress turnout/support for Romney.

I agree. I think the polls showing a large BO win will actually keep dem voters at home and will turn out Republicans in huge numbers. It’s going to backfire on the media and I can’t wait.


18 posted on 09/29/2012 11:57:33 AM PDT by dandiegirl
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To: kristinn

Folks, please tell me what, besides all these polls, is making any of you get a gut feeling that Obama is going to win? What facts on the ground can you point to? And please don’t tell me “there’s too many freeloaders, the USA is finished”. If that were the case, Scott Walker would have gotten destroyed in his recall election, as the SEIU and the UFT would have gotten busloads of freeloaders to the polls.

In 2008, as much as I didn’t want to believe that the American people would elect an inexperienced college campus Leftist, my gut feeling was that Obama would win. All the evidence was there. Tons of bumper stickers and lawn signs, huge crowds showing up to hear him speak, Republican voters convincing themselves that if Obama won, he’d be a Clinton-esque Centrist.

In 2004, my gut feeling was that Bush would win a close victory over Kerry. This was based on the fact that Bush’s approval ratings and support for the Iraq war were both over 50%.

So tell me, what, besides “people are more interested in Honey Boo Boo than the election”, and just plain paranoid pessimism is making you think Obama will win?

The old saying that “people vote with their pocketbooks” is as true to today as it ever was. So what are all the good things that people who are paying attention to their pocketbooks are saying about Obama these days? What is Obama doing to make them feel content or optimistic? What is making them say that Obama is the better choice? Because I’m not hearing it, I’m not feeling it, and I see no enthusiasm for Obama at all.


19 posted on 09/29/2012 12:00:36 PM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: Chuzzlewit

IF more people vote for Romney, Romney is going to win!


20 posted on 09/29/2012 12:03:07 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: kristinn

I did some more digging at Gallup:

In an Adult poll, Oct 14-16 2004: “Only 51% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in previous years, compared to 71% of Democrats, marking a shift from October 2004, when enthusiasm was about the same for both partisan groups.”

So, pre-election 2004, Dem and Rep enthusiasm were equal, and Republicans won
In 2008, Dem=71%, Rep=51% enthusiastic, and Democrats won
In 2012, Dems=48%, Reps = 64% enthusiastic, and who will win?? Pollsters say their turnout model shows D+7 or more for this year. Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote than in 2008? This is garbage. IMHO I think it’s could be between a 2004/2010 turnout model.


21 posted on 09/29/2012 12:24:06 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: o2bfree

See my post above. Your tidbit from Gallup was a great find. I just fleshed it out.


22 posted on 09/29/2012 12:26:02 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: kristinn

“We are totally going to lose....”

-Every concern troll and DU hack on FR


23 posted on 09/29/2012 12:29:06 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Viennacon

The poll I use is the downsizing of the DNC convention from a 74,000 seat venue to a 20,000 seat venue.


24 posted on 09/29/2012 12:36:03 PM PDT by GunsAndBibles (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: kristinn
“Rising GOP enthusiasm could be a Tea Party backlash against media-driven poll reporting meant to depress turnout/support for Romney.” Ding ding ding ding ding! We have a winner! Bingo! I addressed a TEA party group in New Jersey this past week and people are ready to crawl through broken glass and fight alligators to get to the polls.
25 posted on 09/29/2012 12:40:43 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: kristinn

If Gallup says it is 16%, then the real number has to be at least 25%.


26 posted on 09/29/2012 12:41:20 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: VanDeKoik
Every concern troll and DU hack on FR

The Axelrod conservatives..........aka the FR50.......

27 posted on 09/29/2012 12:44:40 PM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt; the alternative is unthinkable)
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To: kristinn

Republicans have figured it out about these BS polls which show Obama leading, and I think we have ALL figured out why the media is running the narrative that Obama has won, because they know that Democrat enthusiasm is in the toilet. That is why you see Obama going on Letterman and The View, he needs to beg for his left wing loons to show up at the polls for him..he literally has to beg him..I heard Michelle Obama doing the same, telling people to vote..I dont hear Romney begging for votes, but thats all I hear Obama doing..because Obama and the media know what the deal is


28 posted on 09/29/2012 12:56:17 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: VRWCRick

The real thing to do is GET OUT AND VOTE like your life depends on it!


Our lives DO depend on it, if we don’t go out and vote America will die and what we will have left is Communism..I refuse to let that happen


29 posted on 09/29/2012 12:57:48 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: jmaroneps37

Someone on twitter said it best, I dont care if Romney appears at the debate wearing a lampshade on his head I am still going to vote for him. This is NOT about electing Romney this is about saving America and getting Obama out. That is what I hear more and more everyday, not everyone likes Romney, I sure am not the biggest Romney fan in the world, but I want Obama gone, I want his goons gone, so yes, Romney could appear at the debate wearing sock puppets and I would still vote for him


30 posted on 09/29/2012 1:01:31 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Viennacon

“We’re winning independents...

We’re more enthusiastic....

We’re about equal in numbers...

HOW THE HELL DO THE POLLS SHOW US LOSING? I smell BS. Romney is going to win”


Probably because the Indepedents are former Republicans voting ABO, and I don’t see any evidence that Republicans are actually “more enthusiastic.” An enthusiasm based entirely on electing a faceless candidate to replace Obama is primarily surface level. Approval ratings for both candidates is low, and that has always been true of Romney where he won in the states where voter turnout was below the average. And this he did by purely demolishing his opponents with lying ads and getting media support propping him up. It was never about Romney the candidate, and the sad thing is, it still isn’t about Romney the candidate.

That is why Romney isn’t leading by 10 points even with Obama being one of the most unpopular presidents in our lifetime with a horrible economy. It’s Romney who is the problem because he is not offering a real alternative.


31 posted on 09/29/2012 1:09:02 PM PDT by RaisingCain
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To: kristinn
This was buried deep in the USA article along with the Internals.

The poll of 1,446 adults, taken Monday through Thursday, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. In general, though, the results show an electorate that is less excited and less engaged than in recent presidential elections.


I think the enthusiasm gap is even higher. The Gallop Poll pretty much reflects what happened during the primaries in Pennsylvania.

Undervote in Pennsylvania Spells Serious Trouble for Obama

April democrat primary, there is a high percentage of “undervote” for Obama. Undervote can be defined as “ the number of blank ballot selections as a proportion of total voters; in this case, the Democrats who voted in the primary but did not make a selection for President”.


32 posted on 09/29/2012 1:26:31 PM PDT by PA Engineer (What if the rabbit hole is endless?)
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To: kristinn

I don’t even buy the Dem figure. Here in Moonbatchusetts, there are NO Obama bumper stickers. In ‘08 they were everywhere.


33 posted on 09/29/2012 1:30:04 PM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: plushaye

The suspense is building...I think you are right. Either the 2004/2010 turnout model could swing the polls 5+ percent from one side to the other.


34 posted on 09/29/2012 1:30:26 PM PDT by o2bfree
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To: RaisingCain

You had me until you said “lying ads”

We all know the enthusiasm is real, the polls bear this out. The lack of excitement for Obama “the first black president” Messiah bears this out.

The debates are going to crystalize what should be a stark choice between the candidates. Assuming that happens the big mo will shift back to the GOP and the socialists will be swept away.


35 posted on 09/29/2012 1:36:26 PM PDT by o2bfree
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To: o2bfree

The ads in the primary were definitely lying, especially in Florida. For example, the false claim that Newt was driven out by the party for being corrupt. Romney doesn’t really have to lie in the ads against Obama, but for some odd reason they’re pretty weak in comparison to what he did to Newt and the rest of the conservatives.


36 posted on 09/29/2012 1:39:37 PM PDT by RaisingCain
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To: PA Engineer

“Undervote in Pennsylvania Spells Serious Trouble for Obama”

I borrowed your map, thanks :)


37 posted on 09/29/2012 1:50:24 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: o2bfree; RaisingCain
Check out RaisingCain's posting history. He is one of the ones I have referred to as a Newb Obama Spammer. There are a group of them. Most have been called out already.

I am truly surprised RC hasn't ridden the lightning.
38 posted on 09/29/2012 1:51:12 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: PA Engineer

“Check out RaisingCain’s posting history. He is one of the ones I have referred to as a Newb Obama Spammer. There are a group of them. Most have been called out already.

I am truly surprised RC hasn’t ridden the lightning.”


A few nights ago one of you MittBots was told by Jim to quit being an a-hole. I take it you have not yet been spanked.

Make no mistake, after this election is over the MittBots will be purged.


39 posted on 09/29/2012 1:55:35 PM PDT by RaisingCain
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To: 1035rep
I borrowed your map, thanks :)

Not mine, but worth the distribution. I worry that we could run into some issues this election because of the undervote. It is obvious that a large sector of registered democrats do not want to vote for obama, but were interested in the down ticket candidates.

What is the possibility that come election time operative lawyers get involved challenging the vote? They would declare that the democrat undervote was an intentional technical "glitch" and that the courts should decide the voter intent. I would not put anything past these people. That is why this data is so important to disseminate.
40 posted on 09/29/2012 1:57:52 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: RaisingCain
A few nights ago one of you MittBots was told by Jim to quit being an a-hole. I take it you have not yet been spanked.

Why don't you ping Jim to thread. Troll.
41 posted on 09/29/2012 1:59:26 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: PA Engineer

“I am truly surprised RC hasn’t ridden the lightning.”

Obot did get the zot but they let it come back. I’m guessing it’s for our amusement :)


42 posted on 09/29/2012 1:59:46 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: PA Engineer

This board is teeming with trolls to many to count! We need to call for the Zot.


43 posted on 09/29/2012 2:00:33 PM PDT by o2bfree
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To: GunsAndBibles

But they got 20,000 in a 5,000 seat venue!!

/s

Don’t forget they also cut a day out of their convention and canceled at the speedway.


44 posted on 09/29/2012 2:00:33 PM PDT by cableguymn (peace through strength. if they don't like you at least they will fear you.)
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To: o2bfree

I can’t remember which FReeper posted it but the Kenyan team ran ads on Craigs list hiring people to infiltrate the forums.


45 posted on 09/29/2012 2:06:49 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: montag813

And so the NYT/Quinnipiac/CBS polls justify their D+9% skew because....?
++++++++++
Incredibaly, there is an answer to your question. Read the Hugh Hewitt thread where he interviews a couple of pollsters. Great thread that addresses your issue.

As to your question, the answer in a nutshell is that they don’t model D/R/I based on a more or less fixed Turnout Model. They do that on the fly - its based on how many Dems, Republicans or Independents ANSWER THE PHONE. So if they get a D+19 poll that’s just the way it is. They simply ignore the fact that their poll is nonsense - they just go with it.

The problem I see with this is it brings into question the possible if not likely bias that is built into their system.


46 posted on 09/29/2012 4:14:00 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; Evil Slayer; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll Ping.


47 posted on 09/29/2012 4:40:56 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Jet, check out the new caveat added to the OH spreadsheet. We must be making some people pretty uncomfortable!


48 posted on 09/29/2012 4:42:30 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: kristinn

“Enthusiasm gap buried in article.”

I bet it is, and would have been buried even further if they could have figured out how to do it.


49 posted on 09/29/2012 4:57:15 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: The Fop
" Tons of bumper stickers and lawn signs "

In the area where I live you saw tons of bumper stickers and yards signs around here for the one in 2008, but, this year it seem his supporters are all in hiding.

50 posted on 09/30/2012 2:28:38 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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