Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November
Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 29, 2012
For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this years presidential race. For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats, says the pollster. Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.
The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage out there for Democrats. Thats what its been for nearly a generation; thats probably what will happen on November 6.
Given that, and factoring in independents, Rasmussens national surveys show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a small margin. The president has a two-point advantage in the latest Rasmussen national tracking poll, and comparably small margins in the super-swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. I think the race is tilting, just barely, in Obamas favor, with the potential to shift between now and Election Day, he says.
After some polls, particularly one from Quinnipiac and the New York Times, showed huge Obama leads in the swing states nine points in Florida and ten in Ohio theres been a contentious debate about the relationship between state polls and national polls. Romney aides constantly point reporters toward the national polls. Of course they do; those polls are closer, and at the moment the Romney campaign is fighting hard against the impression, gaining momentum in some media circles, that the race is virtually over.
Team Romney has a point. When there are national polls showing a very tight race and big swing state polls showing a blowout, something is likely wrong. If the national results are close on November 6, its very unlikely that Ohio and Florida will be blowouts. And if Ohio and Florida are blowouts, its very unlikely the national race will be close. When all is said and done, says Rasmussen, it is impossible for me to conceive of a circumstance where there is a huge discrepancy between those key states and the national numbers.
And whatever the numbers are at this moment, Rasmussen expects them to move by Election Day. In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race. Thats not an unbreakable pattern, and it might not happen this time, but it suggests Romney will gain on Obama, at least a bit, before November 6. Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.
Meanwhile, Republicans across the country continue to express skepticism, scorn, and in some cases outright contempt for the polls. Last week in Ohio, voter after voter at Romney-Ryan rallies complained about the polls, with most saying they just dont believe them. Its something every pollster, left, right, and center, is hearing every day.
When polls appear to be in dispute, says Rasmussen, partisans go to the ones they like best and say they are right and everything else is wrong. Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.
After Nov 6th, Rasmussen will have some splaining to do.
It will be fun.
Don't Rasumssen's own polls show that the idenfification edge is now with Republicans?
I hate the Media. I think most polls are biased. But I also don't want to be "spun" by my own allies. Where are we to get truly objective analysis?
We shall see how the debates go
Though I am starting to see more O’Bumbler/BomeHead Signs.
So wait...Rasmussen, the most GOP friendly pollster out there, is also wrong? So every pollster is wrong about Obama leading/winning this race? Oh vey. This is getting downright sad.
Folks on our side are now stuck disputing virtually ALL the polls.....yeah, were losing. We don't even have Rasmussen to hang our hat on now. This is worse than I even imagined.
Amazing this guy has a 96% approval rating among blacks. 68% strongly approve of the clown. The unemployment rate has hit them harder than any demographic except, perhaps, the young. And yet they're standing by him. Nuts.
OTOH, look at that chart above. Romney is pulling 15% of the White Democrats.
Oh, great. More good news. sarc/
Jeez. I’m replying to no one in particular.
Ras jumps around, within a narrow band. Romney was ahead with leaners earlier in the week. When he’s ahead again in a few days do we say `whew,’ now we’re gonna win? If the Dem turnout surpasses the Republican turnout by one two or three, we win. If it’s four, it’s truly a tossup. Five or better, we lose.
Yes, his August party affiliation polls showed the Republicans with a couple point lead, with a big upswing. I have not seen the September numbers, which I suspect are not out, and I am not sure how he came up with the party affiliation numbers anyway. I suppose it is possible he does not just use his affiliation numbers directly in his party affiliation models for some reason or another that I suppose only he could explain.
Ras national poll has a Dem +2.5% to 4% turnout model over Rs for 2012.
I think it will be at least even (like 2004) to R +2%.
Rasmussen last self partisan ID of R +4.3% (37.6%) over Dems (33.3%) with a sample size of 15,000.
Rasmussen ignores his month to month partisan poll because he has already set his baseline for this election.
We shall see how the debates go
And you can bet your last penny obama will be provided with all the questions in advance so he will have well prepared answers.
still think Rom's chances are very, very good....
Geez, I wonder if anyone here has read past the headline?
What’s being reported here is good news. Everyone had been assuming that Rasmussen was weighting it plus 4 Republican. He has it weighted +3 Rat, and Bambi is still ahead by only 1 or 2 points.
The polls showing Bambi with ludicrous leads have been +11 or +12 rat.
Ras is hedging his bets but his D+3 turnout model doesn’t square with a 14% enthusiasm gap of Republicans over Democrats from today’s Gallup/USAToday poll. If Gallup is wrong, it’s not wrong by 14 percentage points!
From Gallup’s site:
October 2004, Dem and Rep enthusiasm were equal, and Republicans won
October 2008, Dem=71%, Rep=51% enthusiastic, and Democrats won
this Last week 2012, Dems=48%, Reps = 64% enthusiastic, and who will win??
I believe the point here is that the Democrats have an advantage in numbers, not that voting will be that way. I could be wrong, but if the 15% of white democrats for Romney (as posted above) is correct, Romney wins. I still think he will anyway..
From what I’ve read, this is usually the case- does NOT mean that Obama will win. Republicans are more motivated this year.