Skip to comments.Barone: When it comes to polls, readers beware
Posted on 09/30/2012 6:57:26 AM PDT by SMGFan
As a recovering pollster (I worked for Democratic pollster Peter Hart from 1974 to 1981), let me weigh in on the controversy over whether the polls are accurate. Many conservatives are claiming that multiple polls have overly Democratic samples, and some charge that media pollsters are trying to discourage Republican voters.
First, some points about the limits of polls. Random-sample polling is an imprecise instrument. There's an error margin of 3 or 4 percent and polling theory tells us that one out of 20 polls is wrong, with results outside the margin of error. Sometimes it's easy to spot such an outlier; sometimes not.
In addition, it's getting much harder for pollsters to get people to respond to interviews. The Pew Research Center reports that it's getting only 9 percent of the people it contacts to respond to its questions. That's compared with 36 percent in 1997.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
At this point in time if someone is still undecided about voting against Obama, after the 4 years we have been through with this clown and his administration then there is no hope of changing them and we are in real trouble as a nation.
From the full article:
“Part of that is interviewer error: Exit poll pioneer Warren Mitofsky found the biggest discrepancies between exit polls and actual results were in precincts where the interviewers were female graduate students.
But he also found that Democrats were simply more willing to fill out the exit poll. Which raises the question: Are we seeing the same thing in this month’s polls?”
The MSM chickens are coming home to roost. They’ve been BSing us, hating us, mischaracterizing us for decades. So we just don’t bother talking to them. Serves ‘em right.
Part of that is interviewer error: Exit poll pioneer Warren Mitofsky found the biggest discrepancies between exit polls and actual results were in precincts where the interviewers were female graduate students.
polls: jewish voters down to 65% from 78% commie, blacks down to 88% from 96% commie, etc. Anyone registered repub or Indy, why would they now vote communist?
Surfing Youtube for oldies but goodies like The Seekers, Carpenters, Jay and the Americans, Gary Lewis and the Playboys and Pet Clark is a good diversion from ObamaCRAP.
Try this heartening exercise. Go read some articles and opinions on left-wing websites (not the “media”, but the “Nation”-types). There ain’t a whole lot of confidence in the comments. The far Left is sitting this one out at the top of the ticket.
We get an average of three calls a night right now - I don’t know how many we get during the day.
Some are likely pollsters.
We don’t answer any of them.
“why would they now vote communist”
It sounds good until you’re starved to death or shot. It is always sounds good in the beginning...we now have a dumber population as a whole, not because of the union education establishment which is a small part of the education system, but because of popular culture thrust on us by corporate advertising and the media and more importantly the nanny state who is in bed with the MSM. Kids these days don’t come to Kindergarten prepared to learn and then go home in the evening to parents that only see them as a check and who fail to reinforce the lessons they have learned during the day. Its easier to complain that the teachers aren’t doing their job. So why wouldn’t they go for the check? Excuse me communism. Many only attend school so they can get a SSI check for ADHD. If you don’t get the SSI check surely you’ll get into the NBA or the NFL just ask the voters who approve of new stadiums every day from HS to Pro...the Coliseum was built by Roman voters after all. Oh that’s right they gave the government the power.
Interesting that only in Rasmussen this morning, only 42% of voters feel certain they will vote for Obama, while Romney gets 43%. There's room for victory there, even a big victory.
same here in Hudson County, friends father (A Dem) used to answer the calls from pollsters, etc. now he is deceased. But pollster keep calling.
Believe it or not, millions of voters are just now starting to pay attention. The key is for Romney to tell the American public why Obama is a disaster and why his policies will never work. Strong rather than weak. Forget the “he’s (Obama) is a nice guy, but I’m a better technocrat” garbage. Tell them “Obamas’s socialist-inspired plans have failed and they’ll never work!!” Victory through strength.
And if it's 9 %, it's past time to ask, "who is more likely to answer? could there be a political bias in who is answering?"
Dems are huge on new media and old fashioned snail mailings. GOP loves the ophone calls, which means, after 200+ phone calls this month, I immediately hang up if I get a whiff that it may be political.
I have become "un-pollable." I'll bet others have, too.
You are spot on. There is a significant number of persuadable democrat votes out there. If Romney could persuade 1 out of every 20 democrats or even 1 of every 40, he turns the election. I agree with you.
A nine percent response rate is unacceptable for social science survey work. If you don’t have at least a 30% response, you couldn’t get a paper based on the survey published in any reputable journal in the social or behavioral sciences.
The problem is that with a low response rate the likelihood that there is some systematic cause for non-response is much higher than for higher response rates, so the sample, no matter how thoroughly random the selection of people to survey was, may not be a ransom sample of the population, but only a random sample of the subpopulation that lacks the characteristic that systematically causes non-response.
The obvious test for this would be to have the exact percentages of voter registrations by party in a state, do a random survey from the population (registered voters in the state) for which the percentages are known, and do a chi-squared test on the percentages of party IDs among the respondents with the null hypothesis that the percentages are the same as in the voter registrations. If the null hypothesis is rejected, then you’d have (statistical) proof that polling in that state has a systematic cause of non-response that is skewing the party ID in polls.
Catholics up to 51% for GOP this time.. from 47% in 2008 and almost to the 52% Bush got in 2004
Catholics here tout this ...not sure myself but it can’t hurt and seems like a trend overall but will it be enough
IMHO the pollsters are calling the same people over and over again. Some people claim to be getting numerous calls.
I have a home phone and a cell phone. I live in an average size area. I had a steady job for 30 plus years. I am registered and vote in every election regardless of the size.I have a valid DL. I get Jury Notices every three years like clockwork. I have never received a call from any Pollster in my life. I have never heard of anyone who has heard from a pollster. My family is alive and well and has the same home phone for over 55 years. Never rec’d a call from a pollster. Every telemarketer in the known Planet finds the number but NO POLLSTERS. Do the math. They are polling off a list of known people to get the result they want.
Why was that? Was it a bunch of Republican males pretending they voted for Obama in the hopes of getting laid with the female graduate student?