Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Rasmussen: SWING STATE: Sunday 09/30: O:48% R:44%: Leaners: O:50% R:45%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 09/30/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 09/30/2012 7:31:31 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, President Obama earns 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the widest gap in the race since September 6 when Romney held a four-point lead as his bounce from the Republican National Convention peaked. Obama has now been ahead for nine of the last 11 days. For two days late last week, the candidates were tied.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

When “leaners” are factored in, the president leads Romney 50% to 45%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; rasmussen; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100 next last
Ugly ugly data. Has really changed in the last three days. Has gone from being +2 Romney (with leaners) to -5 Romney (with leaners). That is a SEVEN point swing in three days. I dont even think that is possible

I don't even think anything has happened to change it so much. I truly wonder if Rasmussen has changed his demographic mix

1 posted on 09/30/2012 7:31:38 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

It is a D+3 poll.


2 posted on 09/30/2012 7:33:07 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

OMG, What is going on? Are the American people this stupid? This might just be a debate set up by Rasmussen, but if Romney doesn’t perform this thing could blow wide open.


3 posted on 09/30/2012 7:34:49 AM PDT by timlot
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

If these numbers are to be believed Obama is poised to win by at least as big of margins as he got in 2008. Un-effin-believable!


4 posted on 09/30/2012 7:39:11 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Photobucket
5 posted on 09/30/2012 7:39:30 AM PDT by profit_guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
And yet . . . and yet . . . the OH absentee ballot requests CONTINUE to show a massive underperformance of Ds (like 2012, or even 2004) and a strong overperformance of Rs (like 2012). There are polls, then there are votes. So far, they are telling two different stories, unless large numbers of R are voting for Obama.

If that's the case, then we might as well not even bother with party registration.

6 posted on 09/30/2012 7:40:54 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

I invoke Truman. The people will still rise against Dewey.


7 posted on 09/30/2012 7:41:55 AM PDT by profit_guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tatown

Gallop also showed a decent bump for Obama in the last few days. They both were tied at 46 or 47 at the beginning of the week. Romney needs to have a good week with some effective messaging on Obama and a good debate. The ‘Obama landslide’ psychops seems to be having a good effect on voters. I also thil Obama’s commercials are better than Romney’s in the swing states. They are rewriting history and there has not been an effective counte argument. Obama is talking about his recovery, and Romney’s ads are talking about China.


8 posted on 09/30/2012 7:44:31 AM PDT by ilgipper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Harry Reid played the Mormon card.


9 posted on 09/30/2012 7:45:11 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Obama at the UN: The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: profit_guy

RAS polls getting as radical as the democrat-dominated polls. I think he must be scared that if he shows Willard winning anything that Axelrod will come knocking on his front door.


10 posted on 09/30/2012 7:46:23 AM PDT by NKP_Vet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: profit_guy

So.. Romney is 4 points ahead among independents, but 4 points behind overall... ok.


11 posted on 09/30/2012 7:47:26 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

One thing I worry about is if Romney keeps on this current negative path, what of the potential to drag down a number of important Senate seats that we all thought were practically in the bag?


12 posted on 09/30/2012 7:48:31 AM PDT by greene66
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Democrats, Stop Claiming You Are Independents!!!
13 posted on 09/30/2012 7:52:46 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Obama at the UN: The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

The 50% figure is really worrying. This is the first time Rasmussen has Obama reaching that significant figure.


14 posted on 09/30/2012 7:53:45 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BarnacleCenturion

He is ahead with independents AND drawing more GOP support than Obama receives DEM support.


15 posted on 09/30/2012 8:00:12 AM PDT by gulf1609
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

It’s all the Dem ,Romney is done so he should go home propaganda


16 posted on 09/30/2012 8:02:03 AM PDT by molson209
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: LS

This poll is crap. Do they really expect me to believe that 0bama has a 7 point lead among men?


17 posted on 09/30/2012 8:04:53 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Rasmussen's sample is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

“Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.”

18 posted on 09/30/2012 8:07:34 AM PDT by GOPGuide
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Rasmussen's sample is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409

“Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.”

19 posted on 09/30/2012 8:08:38 AM PDT by GOPGuide
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: profit_guy; LS; SoftwareEngineer; tatown

This poll looks fishy.

0bama is up by 4.

Romney has a +4 up on Indies
Romney has more GOPers than Mugabe has Dems by one.

Romeny is leading women by 4, Mugabe leads by 7 with men.

I think this at least a D+6 poll.


20 posted on 09/30/2012 8:09:06 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: timlot
America is changing. America has changed. Too many people are now depending on government for assistance. The message of “I believe in you” is secondary to “I will take care of you.” Much of the brainwashing comes in various forms including pop culture, teachers and media. Ignorance is bliss. Mr. American Idol, the enemy within, is the leader of the free world. We can't let them win. Their deranged form of progress is cancerous.
21 posted on 09/30/2012 8:09:06 AM PDT by ConservativeStatement (Obama "acted stupidly.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: GOPGuide

I think it is about a +6 Dem poll.


22 posted on 09/30/2012 8:09:56 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Romney is running campaign exactly like failed Meg Whitman campaign for Gov California.
Outcome will be same.
They think by targeting specific demography will help them. Till now campaign had failed to excite people, enthusiasm is zilch nada zero as of now even among base.


23 posted on 09/30/2012 8:12:00 AM PDT by jennychase
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: tatown

“If these numbers are to be believed Obama is poised to win by at least as big of margins as he got in 2008. Un-effin-believable”!.......mittens is just mccain with hair colorin’


24 posted on 09/30/2012 8:13:38 AM PDT by stickywillie (stanley ann went black, & never came back)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

How in the f*ck can Obama be up by 4 among men (or behind among women). This really calls into question the entire poll I’d think.

“If” the numbers are right, and the recent trends as well, Mitt may be in some serious trouble.


25 posted on 09/30/2012 8:15:24 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

This poll looks fishy.

0bama is up by 4.

Romney has a +4 up on Indies
Romney has more GOPers than Mugabe has Dems by one.

Romeny is leading women by 4, Mugabe leads by 7 with men.

I think this at least a D+6 poll......

why is ras operatin’ just like the other pollsters?


26 posted on 09/30/2012 8:16:06 AM PDT by stickywillie (stanley ann went black, & never came back)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

A lot of folks had ignored the impact the media would have.

The liberal media has come close to destroying this nation.


27 posted on 09/30/2012 8:21:09 AM PDT by boycott (CAL)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

It’s the usual weekend polling swing .
It’s fall and no one but Dems collecting a check are at home


28 posted on 09/30/2012 8:21:31 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: stickywillie

This just doesn’t make any sense....how can Obama pull away in less than a few days? Also, is there REALLY the enthusiasm for Obama like the levels of 2008? I see the data, but my instincts tell me something is wrong here.


29 posted on 09/30/2012 8:22:50 AM PDT by Blue Turtle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Looks like gut check time is drawing close for Romney. His task now is to turn this thing around. Not saying either way if he can do it. Just saying it’s time to lay the boom on Obama.


30 posted on 09/30/2012 8:24:47 AM PDT by navymom1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stickywillie

Because Axelrod and Nate Silver have battered him
Into submission .
Bill maher was trashing him too .
It’s a coordinated media attack to shut him
Down and to tow the line which looks like they won .

A ridiculous + 6 dem based on nothing


31 posted on 09/30/2012 8:25:07 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Or that 12% of self-identified conservatives are certain to vote for Obama? Something smells funny here. One out of eight? Really?


32 posted on 09/30/2012 8:28:55 AM PDT by T. P. Pole
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Blue Turtle

The polls keep making it seem like 2008 all over again but I’m just not seeing dem enthusiasm even remotely close to 2008. I live right outside Pittsburgh, PA in an old steel town (heavy dem area). In 2008 I couldn’t drive 25 feet without passing a house with an Obama/Biden sign. I have yet to see 1 sign so far this year. Just no way the dems turnout in numbers remotely close to 2008. If we turn out in numbers like 2010 we will win.


33 posted on 09/30/2012 8:29:58 AM PDT by joltman1974
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: stickywillie
I always return to the 1980..a few weeks out, Carter was supposedly UP by 10+% in all the polls..then Reagan won in a landslide...indicating a near 35% SWING in the vote in the last few weeks...

Convential wisdom is that Reagan's debate performance convinced votgers that it wss "safe" to vote for him...how come nobody ever asks is maybe ALL the polls were way off..

34 posted on 09/30/2012 8:30:39 AM PDT by ken5050
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

I check the American Life Panel daily. They update daily at 1am. It is the same group of people but interesting.
Click on some of the other tabs on the page, and if it doesn’t show a chart, refresh the page.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election#shifts-between-candidates


35 posted on 09/30/2012 8:32:52 AM PDT by ParkerPoo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: navymom1

Your response is exact why in Europe polling is banned 2 months before the election .

Polls are meant to manipulate people to not vote and give up .

David Axelrod created modern day media AstroTurf and he knows the power of bad polls has on the public !

He has demanded the 2008 model be used and every one including Ras are now using it .

Don’t fall for it


36 posted on 09/30/2012 8:33:18 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeStatement

“Their deranged form of progress is cancerous”

actually the patient (America) is on life support and near the end of a death watch...the high doses of morphine (obama) has done it’s final damage!


37 posted on 09/30/2012 8:33:42 AM PDT by ldish (Give me Freedom and Liberty or let's kick some a**!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Why is everyone so surprised? Romney is running a shit campaign. I see Obama and Clinton ads every half hour. On cooking shows, on sports shows, on news shows. EVERYWHERE. I haven’t seen a Romney ad in days. And would it matter if I did? All he talks about is the stupid debt, which NO ONE cares about. He will not go after Obama, because his advisers tell him “but the NYT Politico might call it racist!!!” If this doesn’t change within 1 week he is toast.


38 posted on 09/30/2012 8:38:29 AM PDT by montag813
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BarnacleCenturion

It’s more than that. Romney has better support from his own party, better support from the other party, and better support from independents. The only way this works is assuming a major turnout shift.


39 posted on 09/30/2012 8:47:08 AM PDT by flintsilver7 (Honest reporting hasn't caught on in the United States.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: jennychase

You are wrong. You keep listening to the media.. You are doing exactly what they want you to do. They want you to not even bother to go out to vote.


40 posted on 09/30/2012 8:49:38 AM PDT by Hildy (F"When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser." - Socrates)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Blue Turtle

could Ras just be keeping it suspenseful just to help his business? if Ras will inadvertently lie to America, can we trust him anytime?


41 posted on 09/30/2012 8:50:32 AM PDT by stickywillie (stanley ann went black, & never came back)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: Blue Turtle

could Ras just be keeping it suspenseful just to help his business? if Ras will inadvertently lie to America, can we trust him anytime?


42 posted on 09/30/2012 8:50:32 AM PDT by stickywillie (stanley ann went black, & never came back)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

I think your point is spot on accurate and IMHO this current election climate has the same feel as the 80 election. I remember we (family, friends, etc) kept hearing how Carter was leading while thinking how in Hell can this country re-elect him after such a dismal first term??? My gut feeling is that those polls were way off just as these ones today are.


43 posted on 09/30/2012 8:52:00 AM PDT by 07Jack
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: tatown

If Mitt wins the majority of Indies, Women, and holds his base....he wins.


44 posted on 09/30/2012 8:52:08 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: montag813
Have to agree, Romney's ads have little impact. We talked yesterday about his "I will create twelve million jobs" claim. It doesn't work. As Stalin once said, "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic."

12 million jobs is a statistic, and people don't care about statistics. That's why they don't care about a 16 trillion dollar debt--who can relate to even one trillion, much less 16 of them, especially when their daily lives are not visibly affected by it anyway?

45 posted on 09/30/2012 8:53:43 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: montag813

Where do you live ?
In Fl it’s about 50 50 ads ratio and they are all muted


46 posted on 09/30/2012 8:54:21 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: montag813

Where do you live ?
In Fl it’s about 50 50 ads ratio and they are all muted


47 posted on 09/30/2012 8:54:28 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: tatown

“If these numbers are to be believed Obama is poised to win by at least as big of margins as he got in 2008. Un-effin-believable!”

I sorry, but I DON’T believe these numbers. Think about it. It’s simply not possible for Hussein to win with as big a vote as 2008. There’s massive buyer’s remorse out there, massive unemployment, massive gas price increases, massive tax increases on the horizon, massive healthcare cost increases (and even bigger ones looming), massive healthcare disruptions, massive attacks on businesses, massive youth unemployment, massive antisemitism, refusal to build the XL pipeline, ad. nauseum.

And we’re supposed to believe that Hussein will win with the same margin? I’m not buying it. Personally, I think Hussein is going to be blown out of the water. People are either ducking the polls (like me), or they are lying (like some friends of mine do).


48 posted on 09/30/2012 8:55:13 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: 07Jack

I completely agree with the theory but I have ONE Eeyore aside. This is a VERY different country than the one we knew and loved in 1980. The electorate is not the same.

Still- people I know who were Obama voters are now either plugging nose for Romney or sitting it out.


49 posted on 09/30/2012 8:55:45 AM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: montag813

Bingo.

Romeny’s commercials are vague, generic and easily forgotten.

Hell, all Romney has to do keep hammering the high gas prices on Obama blocking the Keystone Pipeline so his Billionaire buddy Warren Buffet can make even more $$ and that’s 5 points in the polls right there.

But no, never happen.

Republicans should fire everyone of their campaign managers


50 posted on 09/30/2012 8:57:46 AM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson