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Can the Polls Be Believed?
American Thinker ^ | 09/30/2012 | Jim O’Sullivan

Posted on 10/01/2012 8:35:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

A raging war has been underway between Republicans/Romney and the mainstream media (MSM)/polling organizations on the accuracy of many recently reported polls. Both sides have stridently argued their cases in a vicious skirmish that has been decidedly unequal.

The Republicans, the Romney campaign, conservative talk radio, conservative new media and Fox News have valiantly fought the Democrats, the MSM, some polling organizations and the Obama campaign organization. Yet given just the megaphones owned by the MSM and Obama's bully pulpit, the battle has been the equivalent of brandishing a popgun at a howitzer...the voting public seemingly is not hearing the battle's thunder or is still not deeply engaged in the election.

So what are the facts...is there a battle plan, an alliance between Obama, the MSM, and polling organizations designed to destroy Romney's candidacy?

Are the polls presenting biased and inaccurate findings?

Are polling organizations deliberately producing misleading results? In essence are they in cahoots with Obama, the MSM, liberal/progressive democrats? Is there any compelling evidence that the MSM is using polling selectively to promote Barack Obama and other democrat office seekers? And will the constant and continuous bludgeoning of Romney using biased or inaccurate polls damage his presidential chances? The basic argument that the polls are biased begins with the 2008 presidential election outcome. Obama won by capturing an electorate composed of 39% Dems, 32% Reps and 29% Independents; this differential is known as a D+7 spread/party affiliation or D+7 electorate. Barack Obama also defeated John McCain by 7 points in the popular vote. In contrast, G.W. Bush defeated J. Kerry in 2004 with an electorate containing 37% Dems, 37% Reps and 26% Inds. The 2008 election was unique in many respects. Barack Obama was African American, youthful, a skilled speaker, untested, mysterious, cool and the MSM's chosen one.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; polls
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1 posted on 10/01/2012 8:35:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I see almost no anecdotal evidence (i.e. I run across very few people who vocally support Obama).

Then again I generally don’t travel in those circles.


2 posted on 10/01/2012 8:37:39 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Buckeye McFrog

I have seen but ONE yard sign for Obama. I also only see Obama stickers on Holder’s People cars and die-hard old liberal Democrats self-absorbed with their disability and SS checks, and not very many of them.


3 posted on 10/01/2012 8:40:20 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: SeekAndFind

After considering everything, author concludes thusly:

(1) Are the polls producing biased and inaccurate findings? Yes, in far too many cases;

(2) Are polling organizations deliberately producing misleading results? With reservation, Probably no;

(3) Are polling firms in cahoots with Obama, the MSM, and liberal/progressive democrats? Probably no;

(4) Does the MSM use polling selectively to promote Barack Obama and other Democrat office seekers? Categorically yes; and

(5) Will the MSM’s bashing of Romney using polls damage his presidential chances? a No, but with reservation.

If you disagree with the author’s conclusions, please tell us how and why he is wrong...


4 posted on 10/01/2012 8:40:34 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind
Can you believe the polls?

Sure, just like people believe in the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny.

5 posted on 10/01/2012 8:41:19 AM PDT by wbill
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To: Gaffer; Buckeye McFrog

After considering everything, author concludes thusly:

(1) Are the polls producing biased and inaccurate findings? Yes, in far too many cases;

(2) Are polling organizations deliberately producing misleading results? With reservation, Probably no;

(3) Are polling firms in cahoots with Obama, the MSM, and liberal/progressive democrats? Probably no;

(4) Does the MSM use polling selectively to promote Barack Obama and other Democrat office seekers? Categorically yes; and

(5) Will the MSM’s bashing of Romney using polls damage his presidential chances? a No, but with reservation.

If you disagree with the author’s conclusions, please tell us how and why he is wrong...


6 posted on 10/01/2012 8:41:34 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: wbill

After considering everything, author concludes thusly:

(1) Are the polls producing biased and inaccurate findings? Yes, in far too many cases;

(2) Are polling organizations deliberately producing misleading results? With reservation, Probably no;

(3) Are polling firms in cahoots with Obama, the MSM, and liberal/progressive democrats? Probably no;

(4) Does the MSM use polling selectively to promote Barack Obama and other Democrat office seekers? Categorically yes; and

(5) Will the MSM’s bashing of Romney using polls damage his presidential chances? a No, but with reservation.

If you disagree with the author’s conclusions, please tell us how and why he is wrong...


7 posted on 10/01/2012 8:42:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: Gaffer

Maybe meaningless, but I saw a Prius with a Romney sticker on it a couple of days ago.

I wonder if it’s been keyed yet?


8 posted on 10/01/2012 8:47:10 AM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: SeekAndFind

Polling organizations do not conduct polls out of the goodness of their heart as a public service. There are three reasons I see:

1. They are paid to conduct them.

2. They ‘collaborate’ (i.e., are paid) to conduct them by the media.

3. They have some semblance of self-interest at heart. They eventually need to close on the outcome closest to what the outcome will be in order to get 1 and 2 above the next time.

So the operative consideration should be here “who paid them to do it? Who are they working with and who developed the poll questions, and when was the poll conducted and what is their day-by-day track record?”


9 posted on 10/01/2012 8:47:39 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: SeekAndFind
YOU SUCK! GAH, I *HATE* YOU!!!1!!1 NOTHING YOU WRITE MAKES ANY SENSE!!!11!! Are you all MORONS???!? You all go ON and ON and ON, and you think you are making a point, BUT YOU TOTALLY MISS MINE!!! What sort of IDIOT is allowed on this forum with that sort of CLAPTRAP???!?? Can you at LEAST stop EMBARASSING yourself! You know NOTHING about what we are talking about and you COMPLETELY miss the point. Besides, HERE ARE THREE CITATIONS that show you are a CREEP and TOTALLY WRONG about EVERYTHING.

How can ONE MAN be SUCH A FREAKIN LOSER??!? Go read something and get back to me when you have ONE DAMNED CLUE!!!!

You freakin PINHEADED TURD, you purposefully miss my point and TOTALLY MISQUOTE EVERYTHING!!! WHY are you such a FREAK! The forum was SO MUCH BETTER BEFORE YOU SHOWED UP with your pure BS nonsense creepy stupid text. MAN why do we have to suffer such fools??? You are wrong, ALWAYS, about EVERYTHING.

10 posted on 10/01/2012 8:48:00 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The American news media, the 'Pravda Press', is fully Soviet-ized.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Point (4) seems to be in conflict with point (2) IMHO.


11 posted on 10/01/2012 8:48:10 AM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: wbill

I hate to say this, but I heard this in the 2008 election as well. When I heard that Obama was leading in N. Carolina and Indiana, I said that those polls were skewed. But he ended up winning those two states. I don’t rule out voter fraud, of which I’m sure there was plenty, but I’m not completely discounting the polls.

My daughter, who isn’t as much into politics as I am, has decided that she doesn’t like either candidate, so she’s not voting at all. Thankfully, we live in a red state, so it won’t affect Romney winning our state unless something major happens. I’m afraid that the problem is that Romney is just not exciting anyone, so Obama will win by default.

I’ve started anti-anxiety meds because I can’t stand the pressure of what the outcome will be. This is the first time I’ve been on Free Republic in a few days because the polling data is getting me down. I may just have to quit it altogether until at least two weeks after the election if Obama wins re-election, which I fear he will do.


12 posted on 10/01/2012 8:49:53 AM PDT by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

In my area, I’ve seen a lot of Rommney/Ryan yard signs. At a very nice home of an obviously well-to-do black man, there are no Obama signs even though his yard was home to several in 2008.


13 posted on 10/01/2012 8:49:53 AM PDT by tbpiper
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To: SeekAndFind

I believe the polls, enough. If you accumulate the poll results, Romney is not making his sale well enough and he needs to spend his money and vigorously go after his goal.

Also, with today’s voters, nothing “goes without saying”. Like, to Romney, it might go without saying that free enterprise is part of what makes America what it is. But for voters who have been poorly taught or have mixed up their priorities, keep spelling out these basics in easy terms, over and over, and make it clear that those basics are so much better, and so much more urgent, than what the other guy has.


14 posted on 10/01/2012 8:50:50 AM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: Lazamataz
YOU SUCK! GAH, I *HATE* YOU!!!1!!1 NOTHING YOU WRITE MAKES ANY SENSE!!!11!! Are you all MORONS???!? You all go ON and ON and ON, and you think you are making a point, BUT YOU TOTALLY MISS MINE!!! What sort of IDIOT is allowed on this forum with that sort of CLAPTRAP???!?? Can you at LEAST stop EMBARASSING yourself! You know NOTHING about what we are talking about and you COMPLETELY miss the point. Besides, HERE ARE THREE CITATIONS that show you are a CREEP and TOTALLY WRONG about EVERYTHING. How can ONE MAN be SUCH A FREAKIN LOSER??!? Go read something and get back to me when you have ONE DAMNED CLUE!!!!

You freakin PINHEADED TURD, you purposefully miss my point and TOTALLY MISQUOTE EVERYTHING!!! WHY are you such a FREAK! The forum was SO MUCH BETTER BEFORE YOU SHOWED UP with your pure BS nonsense creepy stupid text. MAN why do we have to suffer such fools??? You are wrong, ALWAYS, about EVERYTHING.

I'm thinking "semantic overkill" here but to each his own.

Just MHO but I think your point is made.

15 posted on 10/01/2012 8:51:10 AM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I imagine they coulkd be believed if you only consider those that actually took part in it, but since the results vary widely even with the same questions, I doubt it.


16 posted on 10/01/2012 8:51:35 AM PDT by stuartcr ("When silence speaks, it speaks only to those that have already decided what they want to hear.")
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To: Gaffer

I have seen one yard sign for zero where I live in Kalifornia. He is also running ads here. Why do this, if this state is locked in? (I know I know, motivate the unmotivated base).


17 posted on 10/01/2012 8:52:23 AM PDT by CPO retired
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To: Lazamataz

I hope you get better, I really do...


18 posted on 10/01/2012 8:52:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

I imagine they coulkd be believed if you only consider those that actually took part in it, but since the results vary widely even with the same questions, I doubt it.


19 posted on 10/01/2012 8:52:51 AM PDT by stuartcr ("When silence speaks, it speaks only to those that have already decided what they want to hear.")
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To: SeekAndFind
(2) Are polling organizations deliberately producing misleading results? With reservation, Probably no

The author points to curiously heavy Democratic weighting in the polls. That seems to invalidate his #2 conclusion. Innacurate weighting of the polls is indeed deliberately misleading.

20 posted on 10/01/2012 8:53:20 AM PDT by Right Brother
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To: Buckeye McFrog

No yard signs or bumper stickers anywhere in my area. Both sides are afraid of retaliation from the other. All it took was one president to divide this Nation that much. Hopefully, the damage can be undone.


21 posted on 10/01/2012 8:54:04 AM PDT by factoryrat (We are the producers, the creators. Grow it, mine it, build it.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Why would you say something like that?


22 posted on 10/01/2012 8:54:47 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The American news media, the 'Pravda Press', is fully Soviet-ized.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sadly, after every election, most polls have shown to have been acurate. However I have noticed from the mainstream media,that when reporting on Mitt Romney and his campaign activity,it has always been negative with frowning faces, while O’bummer can do no evil and they seem excited at whatever he does by reporting in glowing terms. This is how they influence the public and the elections.


23 posted on 10/01/2012 8:55:01 AM PDT by Vinylly
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To: Fresh Wind

A neighbor of mine is one of the most conservative guys ever and he drives a Prius. A lady friend of mine is super conservative and she drives a Subaru. (although I give her grief about it every time I see her)

Just sayin. Usually a Prius is driven by a faggity ass lib with a goatee and pencil pants while a Subaru is driven by a wiry, white haired smelly 60 year old hippie “woman”.


24 posted on 10/01/2012 8:55:02 AM PDT by albie ("Work as if you were to live a hundred years. Pray as if you were to die tomorrow." Benjamin Frankli)
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To: Steely Tom

Why would you write something like that?


25 posted on 10/01/2012 8:55:45 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The American news media, the 'Pravda Press', is fully Soviet-ized.)
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To: SeekAndFind

When you are down in the polls campaign like you believe them.

When you are up in the polls campaign like you don’t believe them.


26 posted on 10/01/2012 8:56:18 AM PDT by Iron Munro (US Embassies Come and Go But An Obama Apology Lasts Forever)
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To: murron

Interesting that you say not exciting and anti anxiety in the same statement.

I think Romney is not exciting but that Ob is very exciting- in the opposite direction. He causes much anxiety.

I think that’s what this election is about- voting against Ob.

That makes Romney, his blandness, liberal-ness and his etch-a-scetch-ness look really good.


27 posted on 10/01/2012 8:56:35 AM PDT by stanne
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To: SeekAndFind
1. Yes -faulty sampling models

2. Yes - They get thier monies directly from the the Big Media feeding frenzy.

3. - See answer 2

4. - See answer 2

5. - The way the RNC/GOP have capitulated on almost every coservative issue it's now wonder the MSM believes we coservatives will give up.


28 posted on 10/01/2012 8:57:34 AM PDT by John 3_19-21 (Time to circle the wagons men)
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To: SeekAndFind

In a column by Michael Barone he said the polling response rate those asked to participate in poll in 1997 was 37%. In 2012 it’s now 9%.


29 posted on 10/01/2012 8:58:09 AM PDT by AU72
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To: SeekAndFind
1. Yes faulty sampling models

2. Yes - They get their monies directly from the the Big Media feeding frenzy.

3. - See answer 2

4. - See answer 2

5. - The way the RNC/GOP have capitulated on almost every conservative issue it's now wonder the MSM believes we conservatives will give up.


30 posted on 10/01/2012 8:58:28 AM PDT by John 3_19-21 (Time to circle the wagons men)
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To: CPO retired

I have no misconceptions that a lot of people are ideologically in the tank for him (as best as they have the limited intelligence to understand what the full impact of their collusion with him is). I do however feel that they are not as “down with the struggle” of the huge, huge fabulousness of his first black Presidentness per se.

In other words, they are tacitly ‘for’ him, but not so exuberantly. Some will take the time and trouble to struggle with the ‘big vote’, and others will say “why bother if there isn’t an extra government check involved?”

Turnout...turnout is the key - and WE have them beat at that, hands down. I’m so incensced and pissed at 4 years of lying and collusion, it would take my sudden death to keep me from voting against him, even if it is Romney....I’ll feel better about him over last time when I had to take it up the keester and vote for Krazy McCain.


31 posted on 10/01/2012 8:59:32 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: SeekAndFind
For several elections I have been reading on Free Republic how flawed the polls are. The reality of the next day was that the polls were right.

We tend to rationalize what is wrong with the sampling methods but always miss the ultimate issue. Weak candidates can't win. We've had our share.

President Reagan won because he had the "Shining city on the hill vision" that the country loved and needed. Frankly, I'm not inspired by arguments about vouchers.

32 posted on 10/01/2012 9:03:05 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: Gaffer

“Krazy McCain”

Indeed! I daydream whenever any of my friends start going on about him and how he was in any way good. I am out of the conversation and I know there’s no way out except to let the subject fizzle out.

He is nuts.


33 posted on 10/01/2012 9:03:41 AM PDT by stanne
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To: SeekAndFind

Current polls are not precise and reflect questionable assumptions and wishful thinking on the part of the mainstream media pollsters, who are in the bag for their Golden Boy, Obama. Polls are weighted averages of people who respond to telephone surveys. People who are at home to respond to telephone surveys are mostly the unemployed and elderly - hardly a representative sample of voters. The only vote that counts is the one on Election Day, so get your a$$ to the polls and VOTE - your Life, Liberty and Property may well depend on it.

Dick Morris explained all this on O’Reilly last week and predicted Obama will lose - BIG!


34 posted on 10/01/2012 9:05:31 AM PDT by bopdowah ("Unlike King Midas, whatever the Gubmint touches sure don't turn to Gold!')
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To: stanne

I think his captors broke him and broke his mind.


35 posted on 10/01/2012 9:06:51 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: SeekAndFind

People do not show up and go door to door and make phone calls for losing campaigns

People do not donate money to losing campaigns

People do not bother going out and voting if they think the result is a foregone conclusion

Yes, polls DO hurt a candidate chances.


36 posted on 10/01/2012 9:07:17 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: tbpiper

I think for a lot of reasons people are not being very vocal about their preference. I think a lot of Obama supporters are actually embarrassed to come right out and say it as he’s done such a poor job. But they likely will vote for him again.

Likewise a lot of Romney voters aren’t coming right out and saying it for various reasons (they are in a union, hold a government job, are black/hispanic, work or socialize with too many Liberals, etc.)

Also fear of OWS-style wackos keying your car or putting you on a list for Second Term Retribution of some sort.


37 posted on 10/01/2012 9:10:41 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: bopdowah
A few points to ponder:

1. It is easier to find a snipe, of a Schmoo, than tgo find a person who voted for McCain in 2008, and will now vote for Obama.
2. Enthusiam among blacks, and the young is down considerably...they will not give Obama the margins he got in 2008.
3. Most importantly, there was NO TEA PARTY IN 2008. The TP showed their strength in 2009 and 2010, though the Dems and the MSM did their best to discredit the movement.

38 posted on 10/01/2012 9:11:02 AM PDT by ken5050 (Laura Ingraham:"If the GOP can't beat Obama in this economy; shut down the party!")
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To: SeekAndFind

The polls have been skewed and lying for my entire voting lifetime.

Carter was 8 points ahead of Reagan...
Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Bush...
Gore was 18 points ahead of Bush II...
Kerry was also 18 points ahead of Bush II...

NOW THIS FRAUD!

I can’t wait for the Obama Riots.


39 posted on 10/01/2012 9:11:12 AM PDT by Bon mots (Abu Ghraib: 47 Times on the front page of the NY Times | Benghazi: 2 Times)
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To: bopdowah
A few points to ponder:

1. It is easier to find a snipe, or a Schmoo, than to find a person who voted for McCain in 2008, and will now vote for Obama.
2. Enthusiam among blacks, and the young is down considerably...they will not give Obama the margins he got in 2008.
3. Most importantly, there was NO TEA PARTY IN 2008. The TP showed their strength in 2009 and 2010, though the Dems and the MSM did their best to discredit the movement.

40 posted on 10/01/2012 9:11:17 AM PDT by ken5050 (Laura Ingraham:"If the GOP can't beat Obama in this economy; shut down the party!")
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To: ken5050

Nov 2010 happened.
Chick-fil-A day happened.


41 posted on 10/01/2012 9:14:58 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

41M tea partiers ready to rock & roll on November 6th:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/28/41-Million-Tea-Party-Supporters-Set-to-Vote


42 posted on 10/01/2012 9:28:25 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: SeekAndFind

With all the numbers floating around here is one which may have great significance.

Apparently less than one in ten contacted are even willing to talk to pollsters. Over ninety percent tell ‘em to shove it. Thus, a huge landslide could be utterly undetectable by a polling operation actually looking for the truth.


43 posted on 10/01/2012 9:33:22 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The American news media, the 'Pravda Press', is fully Soviet-ized.)
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To: SeekAndFind

[Can the Polls Be Believed?]

They are, desperately, trying to lure Conservatives away from even thinking about the political movement in 2010 and they use their pollsters to accomplish that. Their complicit pollsters are doing everything possible to please their customers... the media... the newspapers... the pundits...television anchors... liberals... and rino members of Congress. It is an all out assault to undermine American values and beliefs. THEIR movement would be the envy of the most ardent propagandist.

They all will point to the polls to panic, discourage and dispirit members of Conservatives and grass roots Americans who were responsible for our 2010 political movement. They saturate the airwaves, newspapers, all the sources easily available to them, to proclaim our polls are accurate because ALL POLLS are showing the same data...it is indisputable proof that ‘this election is a dead heat’ or ‘the president has surged ahead in the swing states’ or ‘this election is all but over’.

Of course, ALL THE POLLS are showing the same indisputable proof, they have to validate each others ‘professional integrity’ by staying on the same page, don’t they? I mean, how would it look to the public if wildly different data suddenly emerged out of nowhere with no +dems, no + rep? They can’t and won’t let that happen, it would just cause confusion amongst the masses and may even cause them to question their...collective indisputable proof. In short, they would lose the power to influence the direction of our politics.

IMO...Ret


44 posted on 10/01/2012 9:46:07 AM PDT by RetSignman
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To: Lazamataz
Why would you write something like that?

Cause I was thinking it!

45 posted on 10/01/2012 10:36:37 AM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: Gaffer

No question.


46 posted on 10/01/2012 10:42:39 AM PDT by stanne
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To: MNJohnnie

“Can Polls Be Believed?”

The simple answer is `No.”

The MSM is going for the `bandwagon effect.’ Defined: “To join a cause or movement that appears popular and successful.”
It works in marketing and politics. It’s basic human nature and they know they can’t win this time with his ethos or on his record.


47 posted on 10/01/2012 11:07:38 AM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives)
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To: Steely Tom

Why wuz u t’inkin’ somtin like that?


48 posted on 10/01/2012 11:10:18 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The American news media, the 'Pravda Press', is fully Soviet-ized.)
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To: factoryrat
Both sides are afraid of retaliation from the other

That is most certainly a factor. A function of Barry telling his supporters to "get in our faces" in '08. There is a guy down the street who always wears SEIU t-shirts. I always give him a wide berth. Looks about half-crazed. For sure I would not engage him in political discussion on your life.


49 posted on 10/01/2012 11:36:28 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Lazamataz
Why wuz u t’inkin’ somtin like that?

Well, why not take a look at your post #10 and see if you can't spot the reason.

50 posted on 10/01/2012 11:50:02 AM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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