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CNN poll: Obama’s bounce gone, race now statistically tied
hotair.com ^ | 10/1/12 | Allahpundit

Posted on 10/01/2012 4:43:43 PM PDT by Justaham

In CNN’s last poll, taken soon after the Democratic convention, O led by six among likely voters. That lead’s now cut in half, to within the margin of error, despite weeks of media doomsaying about Romney’s campaign. In fact, the last four national polls all have the race within two or three points with a bounce opportunity for Romney looming 48 hours from now. I think the first debate will essentially be an audition for him: Obama’s the ultimate known quantity but, for millions of low-information voters, this’ll be the first time they see Romney in action. If he’s as composed and articulate as he was in the GOP primary debates, he’s bound to see some positive movement among undecideds regardless of what Obama does.

Even more encouraging here: As our Greenroomer Karl pointed out on Twitter, Obama’s lead among registered voters (50/46) is almost identical to his lead among likely voters (50/47), which means there isn’t much difference in the partisan split between the two samples. That’s unusual; typically a sample of likelies is a few points more Republican than a sample of registereds. So, if anything, CNN might be underestimating just how well Romney’s doing right now. Also, note that not only does Romney lead by eight among CNN’s (tiny) sample of independents, but his support from Republicans is even more solid than Obama’s support from the Democrats:

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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1 posted on 10/01/2012 4:43:46 PM PDT by Justaham
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To: Justaham

funny how these polls are wildly in favor of dem candidates months out... yet get closer and closer as we near the elections

the only time polls are ever checked for accuracy is on election day

therefore, they must align their skewed polls with the actual data before the election in order to maintain some level of legitimacy


2 posted on 10/01/2012 4:45:57 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: Justaham

Romney leads with independents 49-41 in this latest CNN poll. They had to have way over-sampled Rats again.


3 posted on 10/01/2012 4:46:56 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: All


Help End The Obama Era In 2012
Your Monthly and Quarterly Donations
Help Keep FR In the Battle!

4 posted on 10/01/2012 4:47:26 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: KansasGirl
They had to have way over-sampled Rats again.

They did. Their sample is D+8. The 2008 turnout was D+7. No way do Democrats repeat that again.

5 posted on 10/01/2012 4:49:05 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76

Mark Belling a radio host in Milwaukee (with insider info) said today on his show that romney pulling out of Wisconsin. Thats very telling in a state that has turned a far to the right ad this one has the last two years. Very scary.


6 posted on 10/01/2012 4:51:38 PM PDT by securityman
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To: Justaham

Sounds like Obama is bouncing around like a rubber ball.
Does this mean the media wants Obama to pay them more money to continue to carry his water? They are liberals and will say any stupid thing that comes to their silly heads.
These people surely are not experts and are not cream of the crop in journalism. They are Democrat Party hacks.


7 posted on 10/01/2012 4:54:16 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: securityman
Mark Belling a radio host in Milwaukee (with insider info) said today on his show that romney pulling out of Wisconsin.

I'm not surprised. Wisconsin has been slipping away in recent weeks. Apparently the cheeseheads miss the good old days of... whatever it is they miss.

8 posted on 10/01/2012 4:57:55 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: sten

The goal is to carry Obama over the finish line anyway they can. They will even pick him up out of a ditch and drag him over the finish line if they must. Lie, cheat, steal, whatever it takes to pick O up, is all in a day’s work for the MSM Democratic Party.


9 posted on 10/01/2012 5:00:01 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: KansasGirl
Funny that translates to a 54.4% - 45.6% advantage. Has any candidate ever won the Presidency by losing the independent vote by 8+ points and losing a higher amount of crossover voters than their opponent? I'm pretty sure that has never happened.
10 posted on 10/01/2012 5:00:28 PM PDT by princeofdarkness (The Obama Administration is circling the wagons. But the Truth Indians are using flaming arrows.)
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To: securityman

If Romney is conceding Wisconsin, Chris Wallace and his MSM b*** buddies are right; it’s over and Romney has McCained us.


11 posted on 10/01/2012 5:01:58 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: ScottinVA

Surprising. Scott Walker’s recall win and Paul Ryan on the ticket and, nevertheless, Romney’s giving up on WI?


12 posted on 10/01/2012 5:03:13 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: securityman
This was reported about ten days or so ago. Since it first came out, Romney campaign announced a major new ad buy. FYI
13 posted on 10/01/2012 5:09:54 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: hinckley buzzard

“This was reported about ten days or so ago. Since it first came out, Romney campaign announced a major new ad buy. FYI”

New ad buy in WI? If Romney has lost WI why is the Marxist going there the day after the debate this week? This isn’t adding up.


14 posted on 10/01/2012 5:13:48 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: musicman

“...millions of low-information voters...”

a.k.a. village idiots

a.k.a Obama voters


15 posted on 10/01/2012 5:14:12 PM PDT by bushbuddy
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To: Justaham

Hopefully, as we get closer to the election more Americans will awake from their spells of temporary amnesia cast upon them by the 0bamamedia.


16 posted on 10/01/2012 5:16:00 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Justaham

Obama NEVER had a lead, that was just the constant lie of the media to make up for the fact that Obama is really trailing. As the election gets closer, to save face, these pollsters will start to look identical showing Romney with a 3-5 point lead


17 posted on 10/01/2012 5:16:59 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: securityman

Disinformation. Romney just had a big ad buy in Wisconsin and WI is Obama’s first stop after debate.

Here’s a source on ad buy from TODAY: http://elections.wispolitics.com/2012/10/rnc-begins-new-tv-ad-in-wisconsin.html?m=1


18 posted on 10/01/2012 5:21:13 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: Justaham

TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT.


19 posted on 10/01/2012 5:24:14 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: Justaham

How did a thread which shows Obama losing ground, get hijacked into a ‘Romney is doomed, he’s pulling out of WI’?


20 posted on 10/01/2012 5:26:20 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: hinckley buzzard; All

They need to run that darn ad where Romney talks directly to the camera a lot. It’s golden.


21 posted on 10/01/2012 5:27:03 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Justaham

How did a thread which shows Obama losing ground, get hijacked into a ‘Romney is doomed, he’s pulling out of WI’?


22 posted on 10/01/2012 5:27:39 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: jwalsh07; hinckley buzzard

Thank you. “Insider information”, my azz. More like “disinformation”.


23 posted on 10/01/2012 5:30:00 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: Cruising For Freedom

I meant to post #23 to you also.


24 posted on 10/01/2012 5:31:53 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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So if Romney is pulling out of Wisc, they why does Obama feel compelled to go there the day after the debate, this doesn’t compute.


25 posted on 10/01/2012 5:38:55 PM PDT by Leto
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To: securityman
Mark Belling a radio host in Milwaukee (with insider info) said today on his show that romney pulling out of Wisconsin

This guy (securityman) is a RAT troll search on his posts. What a bunch of BS.

26 posted on 10/01/2012 5:39:57 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: securityman

Why would barry be going there right after the debate. Sounds like he was fed some BS


27 posted on 10/01/2012 5:40:30 PM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: BlueStateRightist

Yeah.. apparently Romney’s internal polls are saying it’s hitting the point of diminished returns out there. They’ve really turned against Repubs of late. Tommy Thompson is even trailing the reprehensible lesbian Tammy Baldwin.


28 posted on 10/01/2012 5:41:25 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: jjotto

securityman is a drive by troll you are being played.


29 posted on 10/01/2012 5:41:40 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: hinckley buzzard; securityman
This was reported about ten days or so ago. Since it first came out, Romney campaign announced a major new ad buy. FYI

Take anything securityman says with a large grain of salt; he's been a Debbie Downer concern troll since the Wisconsin recall elections (in which he confidently predicted a Walker defeat). He'll show up with his little raincloud whenever things start to look up for our side.

30 posted on 10/01/2012 5:42:31 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (~ It-Is-Later-Than-You-Think ~)
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To: Mike Darancette

They live among us lol


31 posted on 10/01/2012 5:43:01 PM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: Mike Darancette

Thanks for tip.


32 posted on 10/01/2012 5:43:27 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Mike Darancette
This guy (securityman) is a RAT troll search on his posts. What a bunch of BS.

Just did some Google checking...nothing about Romney pulling from WI. That may happen shortly though, unless polling numbers improve.

33 posted on 10/01/2012 5:49:08 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: nhwingut

My thoughts exactly. All of the polls (and Intrade) are moving toward the good guys. If Mitt has even an okay performance on Wednesday night the tide should really start to turn. He just needs to be ‘okay’ for the fence sitters to jump aboard.

Interesting, I was listening to Medved today and he had Michael Barone on. Say what you want about Barone, the guy is extremely knowledgeable when it comes to elections, polling, etc. He predicts that Romney will soon overtake Obama in the skewed polls and will win by a margin slightly less than Obama won by in 2008.


34 posted on 10/01/2012 5:50:26 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: ScottinVA

It ‘may happen’ says who? You?? The skewed polls are already turning doomer.

Good grief....


35 posted on 10/01/2012 5:53:20 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: tatown
All of the polls (and Intrade) are moving toward the good guys.

Intrade was up to about 80 on 9/29 now back to under 77.

36 posted on 10/01/2012 6:03:28 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: Mike Darancette

74 now. The tide is starting to turn.


37 posted on 10/01/2012 6:07:59 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: ScottinVA

I don’t understand it. How can a state go for a guy like Walker - even reconfirming him and backing him after the left threw everything at him - and still go for Obama.

That doesn’t make sense to me.


38 posted on 10/01/2012 6:25:20 PM PDT by Personal Responsibility (In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - 1984)
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To: securityman

Diogenes is that you? Aren’t you sweet.


39 posted on 10/01/2012 6:27:52 PM PDT by DWC (historian)
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To: nhwingut

I know, right? Maybe he’s not going to focus as much because he figures he has it locked up.


40 posted on 10/01/2012 6:40:35 PM PDT by Winstons Julia (Hello OWS? We don't need a revolution like China's; China needs a revolution like OURS.)
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To: Justaham

Doubt there is a tie. Bet Romney has a double-digit lead, but Obama’s media want to keep that a secret just in case they need the “tie” meme for cheating later.


41 posted on 10/01/2012 6:40:49 PM PDT by madison10
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To: BlueStateRightist

Why does leaving a state mean Romney is losing, couldn’t it mean that he is winning and there is no point in spending more money there, or that they think they have the state that Paul Ryan is from?

I think they are calling the game too early.


42 posted on 10/01/2012 6:43:11 PM PDT by madison10
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To: Justaham
"Even more encouraging here: As our Greenroomer Karl pointed out on Twitter, Obama’s lead among registered voters (50/46) is almost identical to his lead among likely voters (50/47), which means there isn’t much difference in the partisan split between the two samples. That’s unusual; typically a sample of likelies is a few points more Republican than a sample of registereds. So, if anything, CNN might be underestimating just how well Romney’s doing right now. Also, note that not only does Romney lead by eight among CNN’s (tiny) sample of independents, but his support from Republicans is even more solid than Obama’s support from the Democrats"

CNN 'holding back' because last chance to show Bobo with faux 'open lead' (still within MoE, but whatever). Ras has built in the slack 'in reverse'. The takeaway is, all the polls are poised for a post-debate breakout Thurs.-Fri. in an attempt to portray Undecideds moving off the dime. Better than 50-50 to be Mittens IF he comes off Presidential while kicking sand in his opponent's face.

Then you'd have a 49-49 or 49-48 going into the weekend that (supposedly) Mitten's shock&awe ad buy unleashes.

You get that scenario, and it'll be hand-to-hand precinct-by-precinct in IA, OH, CO. All ground game from there.

43 posted on 10/01/2012 6:55:07 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, IA = 272EV)
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To: Justaham

Romney surged in the polls right before his convention and they’re tightening right before the first debate, now why would the MSM do that ?

They don’t want to report any Romney bounce after so they quietly up his numbers right before.


44 posted on 10/01/2012 7:32:06 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: Mike Darancette

Yep!


45 posted on 10/01/2012 8:08:23 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Mike Darancette
"This guy (securityman) is a RAT troll search on his posts. What a bunch of BS..."

Yep. There are a couple of them doing their best to demoralze up. Another one calls himself chopper something.

Unfortunately, FR doesn't have an "ignore" button.

Hank

46 posted on 10/01/2012 9:38:32 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: Personal Responsibility
I don’t understand it. How can a state go for a guy like Walker - even reconfirming him and backing him after the left threw everything at him - and still go for Obama.

This bears repeating. Wisconsin has gone all in for rolling back public sector union power. Now we are supposed to believe the same people are going to re-elect Barry the Rat King of Union Kickbacks? That doesn't compute in the least.

47 posted on 10/01/2012 9:43:40 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
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To: KansasGirl
"Romney leads with independents 49-41 in this latest CNN poll. They had to have way over-sampled Rats again."

And another oddity is that the race is only 2-3 points nationally in favor of Obama, but in the battleground states, Obama is doing just fantastically.

I was struck by the comment of one pollster that only 9% of people contacted agree to participate in a poll, which is way down from 36% a decade ago. Is their a political bias in who responds? Would a small businessman (likely a Republican) take the time to respond as readily as an unemployed deadbeat sitting on the couch all day eating his food-stamp cheetos? (likely a Dem). Their assumption is yes.

48 posted on 10/01/2012 9:48:03 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
Unfortunately, FR doesn't have an "ignore" button.

Just narc them out and move on.

49 posted on 10/01/2012 9:59:46 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: Justaham

CNN hedging bets?


50 posted on 10/01/2012 10:01:39 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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