Skip to comments.Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results
Posted on 10/03/2012 5:10:05 PM PDT by Condor 63
There is little suspense left in our presidential horse race, even in most of the so-called swing states, says astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley.
The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.
Bottom line: Obama is well on his way to re-election.
"I think the operative word is disaster if you're a Republican," said Colley on Monday. "I think the operative word is confidence if you're a Democrat."
"These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot."
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.al.com ...
Wow! That's some track record!
I’ll see what he says Nov. 7.
The US is doomed.
Word if your Democrat: Oversampled. Translation: Overconfidence.
And that's how it should be going into the election.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Sorry Wes. When you put rabidly dishonest BS in your models, you get BS out.
Hey, genius Colley: What’s the “operative word” if you’re an American, huh?
The last two were easy.How did this “astrophysicist” do in 2000?
Nevermind today’s Politico poll with Romney leading in the swing states.
“In ‘04, we only missed Hawaii.”
Well, if you can not predict Hawaii, DEMOCRAT all the time, what good are you?
that would mean Obama wins North Carolina, which is impossible.
I successfully predicted the outcome of the last two Presidential elections too. It was based on bowel movements on the day 16 days before the elction.
Romney now up +4 in toss up states!
This is politics, not rocket science...
(or brain surgery, unless you count lobotomized Libs)
I think a lot of people, maybe in the tens of thousands, correctly predicted the last two elections. It did not take rocket science.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe hundreds of thousands of people correctly predicted the outcome of the last two elections. Colley is one of them. I wonder what the other 999,999 people think about this one. They are on a par with Colley.
Hell, I predicted the last election soon as McLame became the nominee... on the one before that I had a pretty good feeling old horse face didn’t have a chance, just because he was on the same plane of political existence as ol’ plugs, Bite-Me. You’d have to have been be an amoeba to have gotten at least one of those wrong.
Wait, they predicted HAWAII was going for Bush in 2004??????
Garbage in garbage out. Brought to you by the same type of scientists that faked data in order to prove man made global warming.
The D/R rations are purely based on conjecture.
Ordinarily I would ask you to post a link to the results but in this case I think I’ll pass...
This guy is basically saying that Obama will win EVERY toss up state.
Because Romney starts with 191 before a single toss up state is counted
OK, well, that’s it. It’s all over. I’m screwed, you’re screwed, we’re all screwed. This guy says so. It’s on the internet, it must be true. Good luck everybody!!
Using his method we could definitely predict a Carter victory in 1980.
Just like a stopped clock (the kind with the hands, not the digital kind, but that would work, too).
He can kiss my butt.
Oooooh Aaaaah! What does the Ouija Board say?
269 to 269
I posted a screed the other day lambasting yet another negative poll for the allies—as opposed to the Obama Axis—and compared the Associated Press/Pimps football poll to their (putative) polling activity, and mentioned as well the baffling BCS (`Bowl Championship Series’) as proof that it’s all just hocus pocus and bad joojoo ...
So here’s asstrophysicist Colley rolling the bones for the BCS, as well as forecasting political results with his Magic 8 ball.
Enough with the negative vibes, and nobody said nuthin’ `bout no Tigers.
In 2012, polling is to politics what lie detectors are to evidence.
Hmmm.... Seems like Colley can be sloppy at times and overly dependent on others.
“LSU was ranked 10th and Boise State 11th in the final BCS standings, which determine who plays for the national title and other lucrative bowl games. But Wes Colley, a research scientist at the University of Alabama-Huntsville, failed to input the Appalachian State-Western Illinois playoff game into his set of rankings.
In the convoluted world of BCS computers, that mistake decided 10th and 11th place in the overall standings. LSU and Boise State flipped spots Monday.
The mistake was caught by CollegeBCS.com’s Jerry Palm, who reviews Colley’s work. Colley said he neglected to include that one score because it wasn’t initially on the database of Peter Wolfe, another BCS computer ranker.”
I too predicted the last two elections. A matter of fact I knew Obama was going to win the first time I saw him speak when running against Clinton.
You can’t take the ASS out of ASStrophysicist!
That’s what my model shows - a tie. It won’t stay there long...
I predicted the (future) election when Obama gave his speach the DNC way back when.
I predicted the election when Clinton looked the camera in the eye and said, “I tried it, but I didn’t inhale.”
This guy simply makes a prediction based upon median of polls. Since the polls always say the same thing - the democrat wins - regardless of who actually wins, of what value is this prediction?
This is the perfect setup to fool conservatives into thinking Obama is ahead, when he’s really behind.
Astrophysicist, eh? (Oh, I get it! He’s a rocket scientist!)
Since many astrophysicists depend heavily on government grants for their income, I think I see what’s driving his prediction...
someone tell them we are not going to Mars...
“someone tell them we are not going to Mars...”
And his mom called and said to clean up his room in the basement..
But.. Where’s your prediction THIS election?
Wezzy needs to mash here...and start the Jaegermeister shooters!!! Cause in another month it ain’t gonna be pretty...
I’m hoping my score after this election is 2 out of 3.
I predicted the last 4, and I did not use scientific methods
This guy does football and basketball picks as well. I think he was part of the original BCS formula for football. I’m serious, not kidding.
Neither do pollsters apparently.