Posted on 10/05/2012 8:59:30 AM PDT by listenhillary
Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. government’s labor statistics agency.
Accusations that the government had manipulated the latest employment report spread across Twitter and other forums Friday after the U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since President Barack Obama’s inauguration. Among those questioning the better-than-expected report was former General Electric Chief Executive Jack Welch, who tweeted the suggestion that the “unbelievable jobs numbers” were fabricated to help Obama’s electoral chances in next month’s presidential election.
But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...
Keep digging ....... pal.
I will watch for weasel words that carefully do not say that they didn't do anything different, just that they didn't change anything about how they manipulated the data. In addition, perhaps they changed the locations where they made the phone calls to areas where people are more likely to start a home business if they lose their salaried job.
Cnbc is outright calling barrys administration liars, I have never heard that in all my years. After the horrendous debate this scandal if it does become one could be even worse for barry
Say that I am a caller to a household and my script asks: Are you a fulltime homemaker who cares for your children?...Voila! We have two more full time jobs filled right there...one as a daycare worker and one as a housekeeper. If they home school, add another one, “educator”, maybe cook. Ask another person if they attend to their elderly relative and call that a full time job too. If you walk your dog, then your are a “dog walker”. In Progressiveville, everything is possible. They use that famous Music Man “Think Method”.
7.8?
Bull$hit.
On the other hand, they work for you.
Revisions of previously announced preliminary statistics reflect the collection of additional and better data. Statistic revisions are entirely justifiable, indeed critical for economists and investors.
But that does not mean we should never question government statistics. This is certainly true of data derived from the Household Survey. The Household Survey is a relatively small sample of a very large, geographically and demographically varied population. The sample always must be adjusted so that it does not vary from the national population in respect to age, sex, race, income, geography and education (and probably a dozen other variables) beyond a prescribed confidence interval.
Like opinion polls, the adjustment methods are fallible. And, like opinion polls, they can be manipulated.
In my opinion, the change in Total Employment in September is a statistical anomaly at best. Year-over-year growth comparisons in this series for the first nine months of 2012 range from 1.6% (August) to 2.2% (June). September's statistic was 2.0%. That is comfortably within the YTD range, but the 0.4% acceleration from August to September is two standard deviations from the mean.
That's reflects odds of about 20 to 1. The nine months of data for 2012 is a small sample, and we should not draw too much from it. But the 2 STDs from the mean outcome is an outlier, and we have reason to doubt that it accurately reflects employment conditions. In other words, the likelihood is that this was either a bad sample or a manipulated sample. Or perhaps a combination of both.
No, the government cannot manipulate economic statistics. But it can intentionally choose a sample that it knows is misleading. There is insufficient evidence to demonstrate malfeasance. But the corollary is also true.
It doesn’t need to manipulate anything. The means by which it measures those who have jobs as. % of those who are seeking jobs is sufficient to produce the honey numbers.
If these had been the first words of this piece I would have saved 10 seconds reading the first hundred words.
By these NEW Guidelines, anyone that attempts to earn a single dollar from their own ingenuity can be claimed as working from home.. Check the Garage Sales in your neighborhood GreenSheet and you’ll find most of them.. BS on a BUN.. UGH!
That is a lie. We see it every month. The numbers are estimated at the start of the month. Then they publish the actual numbers late in the month. The numbers released today are an estimate.
So the guy who has been fudging the number for 4 years claims it is impossible to fudge the numbers and the Mass Media mindlessly accepts his claims
BS. The government does lie.
I have seen a surge of patients in my practice being approved for Social Security Disability. No doubt that 0bama has put the word out to the bureaucrats to approve as many applicants as possible in order to keep people off the workforce stats.
114,000 jobs added in September 2012 drops U3 Unemployment up by 0.3% (when we have a higher total population)
Other than manipulating data, what other plausible explanation is there...?
Here’s a thought. The problems with these numbers are obvious and they are massive.
I wonder if the statisticians at BLS were ordered to cook them, and decided to cook them in a way that would be readily apparant for anyone with a background in business or statistics to see. The political management at BLS and DoL, lacking such, didn’t realize that their statiticians were punking them and let the numbers go out.
Ignore “up”...
Yes, he is. I'm blown away nearly every day when I think about how brilliant he is.
It’s just numbers on a screen...why can’t they be manipulated? or misrepresented? or just lied about?
“Among those questioning the better-than-expected report was former General Electric Chief Executive Jack Welch...”
This was near the front - and where I stopped reading.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.