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Impossible To Manipulate Labor Survey Data—Former BLS Head
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/impossible-to-manipulate-labor-survey-data-former-bls-head/ ^ | 10/05/12 | Geoffrey Rogow

Posted on 10/05/2012 8:59:30 AM PDT by listenhillary

Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. government’s labor statistics agency.

Accusations that the government had manipulated the latest employment report spread across Twitter and other forums Friday after the U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since President Barack Obama’s inauguration. Among those questioning the better-than-expected report was former General Electric Chief Executive Jack Welch, who tweeted the suggestion that the “unbelievable jobs numbers” were fabricated to help Obama’s electoral chances in next month’s presidential election.

But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Extended News; Government
KEYWORDS: magicnumbers; sourcetitlenoturl; unemployment; unexpected; unfrickinexpected
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To: listenhillary

By these NEW Guidelines, anyone that attempts to earn a single dollar from their own ingenuity can be claimed as working from home.. Check the Garage Sales in your neighborhood GreenSheet and you’ll find most of them.. BS on a BUN.. UGH!


51 posted on 10/05/2012 10:16:53 AM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: listenhillary

That is a lie. We see it every month. The numbers are estimated at the start of the month. Then they publish the actual numbers late in the month. The numbers released today are an estimate.


52 posted on 10/05/2012 10:18:03 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: listenhillary
Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012,

So the guy who has been fudging the number for 4 years claims it is impossible to fudge the numbers and the Mass Media mindlessly accepts his claims

53 posted on 10/05/2012 10:20:24 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: listenhillary

BS. The government does lie.
I have seen a surge of patients in my practice being approved for Social Security Disability. No doubt that 0bama has put the word out to the bureaucrats to approve as many applicants as possible in order to keep people off the workforce stats.


54 posted on 10/05/2012 10:26:33 AM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot)
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To: listenhillary
114,000 jobs added in September 2004 drops U3 Unemployment by 0.1%

114,000 jobs added in September 2012 drops U3 Unemployment up by 0.3% (when we have a higher total population)

Other than manipulating data, what other plausible explanation is there...?

55 posted on 10/05/2012 10:36:21 AM PDT by RavenATB
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To: expat2

Here’s a thought. The problems with these numbers are obvious and they are massive.

I wonder if the statisticians at BLS were ordered to cook them, and decided to cook them in a way that would be readily apparant for anyone with a background in business or statistics to see. The political management at BLS and DoL, lacking such, didn’t realize that their statiticians were punking them and let the numbers go out.


56 posted on 10/05/2012 10:37:22 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: RavenATB

Ignore “up”...


57 posted on 10/05/2012 10:38:12 AM PDT by RavenATB
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To: Signalman
This is why Rush is numero uno.

Yes, he is. I'm blown away nearly every day when I think about how brilliant he is.

58 posted on 10/05/2012 10:40:26 AM PDT by babyfreep
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To: listenhillary

It’s just numbers on a screen...why can’t they be manipulated? or misrepresented? or just lied about?


59 posted on 10/05/2012 10:41:43 AM PDT by babyfreep
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To: Gay State Conservative

“Among those questioning the better-than-expected report was former General Electric Chief Executive Jack Welch...”

This was near the front - and where I stopped reading.


60 posted on 10/05/2012 10:43:31 AM PDT by 21twelve (So I [God] gave them over to their stubborn hearts to follow their own devices. Psalm 81:12)
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To: montag813
Thanks for posting this photo, love DIE HARD. Here is some dialog to go along with your photo:

Hans Gruber: Now... you can break the code?

Theo: You didn't bring me along for my charming personality

Hans Gruber: How long will it take? Theo: Thirty minutes to break the code... Two hours for the five mechanicals. The seventh lock... that's out of my hands.

Hans Gruber: What?

Theo: You realize once I break through, the last lock, the time lock is out of my hands?

Time goes by Hans calls Teo of progress update:

Theo: One more to go...then it's up to you.

Loud Bang... The graphic on his screen flashes: "WARNING: ELECTRO-MAGNETIC SEAL ARMED."

THEO: And you better be right, because this one's going to take a miracle.

Hans: “It’s Christmas, Theo. It’s the time of miracles, so be of good cheer…”

More time goes by Theo calls Hans to infomr him of activity on the perimiter:

Theo: Who are those guys?

Hans Gruber: They are the F.B.I.. They're ordering the others to cut the building's power. Regular as clockwork.

Theo: Or a time lock.

Hans Gruber: Precisely. The circuits that cannot be cut are cut automatically in response to a terrorist incident. You asked for miracles, Theo. I give you the F... B... I...

The power in the building is cut, there is another LOUD "BANG" as the time lock releases and the vault door opens displaying a horde of untold riches within... Cue Beethoven's "Ode to Joy"!

DIE HARD = Classic!

61 posted on 10/05/2012 10:51:39 AM PDT by Jmouse007 (Lord deliver us from evil, in Jesus name, amen.)
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To: listenhillary

Maybe back in his day. People prior to Obama and his crowd used to be ethical.

So sir, it is possible, as possible as cheating in an election.


62 posted on 10/05/2012 11:04:08 AM PDT by dforest
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To: listenhillary
It's True, The BLS Data Is Made Up
63 posted on 10/05/2012 11:05:49 AM PDT by Madame Dufarge
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To: dforest

“So the business survey says +114k jobs, the HH survey says +873k. Who you gonna believe, the BLS or the BLS?”

Iowahawk tweet

The household survey is a much smaller sample, and that is what the 7.8 unemployment rate being put forth is based on. It’s much like polling where they call up people on the phone and query them about their unemployment status.


64 posted on 10/05/2012 11:11:00 AM PDT by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
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To: listenhillary

Really?

In The California State Parks division has recently found some $59 million in a private reserve “off the books” accounts, that they never recorded in their annual financial statements.

Anything can be manipulated. Bernie Madoff, Bernard Ebbers, etc...


65 posted on 10/05/2012 11:43:14 AM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: listenhillary

BS - maybe the numbers themselves cannot be manipulated, but the definition of how those numbers are counted can be, and HAS BEEN manipulated.

We now use a figure called U3 for the headline number for unemployment. Prior to about 1992, we used a calculation that was effectively identical to U6. U6 is now at 15%. See Shadow Statistics for information on this purposeful manipulation. http://www.shadowstats.com/

FYI, there’s a short article from Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker from this morning about the absurdity of the U3 number: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=212379


66 posted on 10/05/2012 11:45:43 AM PDT by Ancesthntr (Bibi to Odumbo: Its not going to happen.)
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To: alloysteel

You are lucky!

Yesterday I paid nearly $5 bucks per gallon and had my wallet lifted by $87 bucks!

KuhRayZee!


67 posted on 10/05/2012 11:46:10 AM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: listenhillary; All

Household Survey Magic

Table A-9....go down under non-seasonally adjust and look at the Full time/Part time section.

Full-Time jobs decreased by 536,000
Part-time jobs increased by 1,311,000

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm


68 posted on 10/05/2012 11:57:13 AM PDT by Fithal the Wise
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To: irish_links
In other words, the likelihood is that this was either a bad sample or a manipulated sample.

That was my first question. I haven't lived in the US since 2006. Up until then, I never got unsolicited calls on my cell phone. Has that changed ? Do they do surveys to cell phones now ? If not, that leaves only land lines. Now, if you were out of work for a year and had a cellphone and a regular land line, wouldn't you get rid of the land line as an unnecessary expense ( or if you are really cutting to the bone - no phone at all ( or a prepaid one where the number isn't in any database ) ? Thus, the people that are out of work for a long time are not in the sample.

69 posted on 10/05/2012 7:50:43 PM PDT by TheCipher (Suppose you were an idiot and suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself- Mark Twain)
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