Skip to comments.Impossible To Manipulate Labor Survey Data—Former BLS Head
Posted on 10/05/2012 8:59:30 AM PDT by listenhillary
Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. governments labor statistics agency.
Accusations that the government had manipulated the latest employment report spread across Twitter and other forums Friday after the U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since President Barack Obamas inauguration. Among those questioning the better-than-expected report was former General Electric Chief Executive Jack Welch, who tweeted the suggestion that the unbelievable jobs numbers were fabricated to help Obamas electoral chances in next months presidential election.
But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...
Hans Gruber: Now... you can break the code?
Theo: You didn't bring me along for my charming personality
Hans Gruber: How long will it take? Theo: Thirty minutes to break the code... Two hours for the five mechanicals. The seventh lock... that's out of my hands.
Hans Gruber: What?
Theo: You realize once I break through, the last lock, the time lock is out of my hands?
Time goes by Hans calls Teo of progress update:
Theo: One more to go...then it's up to you.
Loud Bang... The graphic on his screen flashes: "WARNING: ELECTRO-MAGNETIC SEAL ARMED."
THEO: And you better be right, because this one's going to take a miracle.
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More time goes by Theo calls Hans to infomr him of activity on the perimiter:
Theo: Who are those guys?
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Hans Gruber: Precisely. The circuits that cannot be cut are cut automatically in response to a terrorist incident. You asked for miracles, Theo. I give you the F... B... I...
The power in the building is cut, there is another LOUD "BANG" as the time lock releases and the vault door opens displaying a horde of untold riches within... Cue Beethoven's "Ode to Joy"!
DIE HARD = Classic!
Maybe back in his day. People prior to Obama and his crowd used to be ethical.
So sir, it is possible, as possible as cheating in an election.
“So the business survey says +114k jobs, the HH survey says +873k. Who you gonna believe, the BLS or the BLS?”
The household survey is a much smaller sample, and that is what the 7.8 unemployment rate being put forth is based on. It’s much like polling where they call up people on the phone and query them about their unemployment status.
In The California State Parks division has recently found some $59 million in a private reserve “off the books” accounts, that they never recorded in their annual financial statements.
Anything can be manipulated. Bernie Madoff, Bernard Ebbers, etc...
BS - maybe the numbers themselves cannot be manipulated, but the definition of how those numbers are counted can be, and HAS BEEN manipulated.
We now use a figure called U3 for the headline number for unemployment. Prior to about 1992, we used a calculation that was effectively identical to U6. U6 is now at 15%. See Shadow Statistics for information on this purposeful manipulation. http://www.shadowstats.com/
FYI, there’s a short article from Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker from this morning about the absurdity of the U3 number: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=212379
You are lucky!
Yesterday I paid nearly $5 bucks per gallon and had my wallet lifted by $87 bucks!
Household Survey Magic
Table A-9....go down under non-seasonally adjust and look at the Full time/Part time section.
Full-Time jobs decreased by 536,000
Part-time jobs increased by 1,311,000
That was my first question. I haven't lived in the US since 2006. Up until then, I never got unsolicited calls on my cell phone. Has that changed ? Do they do surveys to cell phones now ? If not, that leaves only land lines. Now, if you were out of work for a year and had a cellphone and a regular land line, wouldn't you get rid of the land line as an unnecessary expense ( or if you are really cutting to the bone - no phone at all ( or a prepaid one where the number isn't in any database ) ? Thus, the people that are out of work for a long time are not in the sample.