Obama is still slightly up in the electoral count on Rasmussen, but the gap has closed considerably.
It looks like about 271 Obama and 267 Romney when all toss-ups are given to the current state leader per Rasmussen’s numbers.
Obama is ahead in Nevada 6, Wisconsin 10, and Ohio 18.
If he loses any of those, he loses the election. If he wins all 3, he wins the election.
The most likely Romney win will be in Ohio, but it will also be the costliest.
This is only based on the numbers Rasmussen is showing now. I imagine Rasmussen will come out with new numbers on those states based on post-debate polling.
I think the people who do still support Obama are hoping that he had just one bad night. Romney put Obama on the floor but has not yet delivered the finishing blow.
IMO, Romney has tied the race. If Romney delivers another KO punch, a landslide may really happen.
But the key in that story is the warning that the polling in that chart has been conducted at various times in the past 3 weeks. We have yet to see post Debate polling for most of those states
I don’t think that there is even a good guess as to the electoral vote right now. We really need at least 3 marginally “reliable” polls from each state to get any read at all.
The only poll worth looking at right now is the national.
Specifically, I think the most accurate way to get a handle on the electoral college would be to take the state-by-state polls, and in each state adjust by as straight percentage change in the national polls since the debate. Not great way, but better than anything else out there right now. By the end of the coming week, that method will probably not be needed, though.