Posted on 10/06/2012 2:47:45 PM PDT by dialup_pundit
When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.
In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.
That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote...
Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama won in 2008 by 23 points.
Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100512-628435-polls-show-obama-could-lose-illinois.htm#ixzz28X8nPjpF
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.
Slowly the poll misleading strategy of Dems is fading.
What are the rules of Obama keeping his campaign money? Didn’t Buchanan do this? Be a nice Hawaii house.
More shooting murders.
Unemployment catastrophically high.
Teacher Union marxism displyed only recently.
Now a wholesome mid-westerner is running the Repub ticket as VP, showing that the mid-west can be different.
Chicago may finally be tiring of their decades-long tribulations.
He’s going to lose California, from where I sit!
“He’s going to lose California, from where I sit!”
Granted, I am in Orange County, California but I have seen many more Mitt signs than Obama signs including cars.
Likely? Yes. Done deal? No.
Voter registration in Chicago is down. Voter interest is down as well. Blacks will vote for the O overwhelmingly again, but the numbers likely won't be as large this year as '08. The same for democrats in general. If this holds true and if the GOP does well in collar counties and downstate, it could be an interesting night here in Illinois.
It would be hilarious if Obama won only HI, MA, and VT.
While I still think we will be looking a very close election night, it’s numbers like this that make the notion of a Romney landslide seem at least possible. From what I’ve read, the IL-10 is a swing district, with a history of electing moderate-to-liberal Republicans (Mark Kirk, Dord, etc.) to Congress and being close when it comes to Presidential elections (2008 being a notable exception).
If Obama is losing those folks in Illinois, chances are he is losing similar groups in places like Ohio, Wisconsin and other battleground states.
When and IF Biden endorse Romney-—then all bets are off.
Illinois' 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of Cook County, is an affluent district chock full of the same independent voters that will decide the presidential contest nationally. In 2008, Obama won 61% of the vote there. Al Gore and John Kerry comfortably carried the district in 200 and 2004 respectively.
"For Mr. Obama to be in a statistical tie in an area that he won by around 20 points in 2008 truly reveals the failure of his presidency," said Illinois-based political consultant Paul Miller. "The economy is undoubtedly the key factor, but in suburbs with a large Jewish population, his treatment of Israel is also taking its toll."
The Republican Jewish Coalition, which is the major organization working the Jewish community for Romney, has been targeting Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Illinois has been one of the states with significant Jewish populations which is being essentially ignored as a hopeless cause. Smart or foolish?
One other point: Hard to get a handle on the accuracy of these numbers by congressional district because the districts are all redrawn.
OTOH Mitt is going to lose his state so I’m not sure how this affects the chances of either candidate.
I worked for Nixon-Lodge Campaign in 1959-60, and until all the dead/illegal/bussed-in Cook Cty votes were counted for JFK, we were comfortably ahead in Illinois. Somehow, Mayor Daley always managed to come-up with just enough votes to win every election for decades. Not much has changed. “The Machine” there, is quite corrupt, criminal and formidable.
This time I didn't see a single one.
If anyone out there has a spare $1 billion they’d like to use to set up a Super PAC, this would be an interesting experiment...however, not really worth it to divert any current resources away from the key battlegrounds for the main campaign orgs. Still...Donald Trump - you out there?
I wouldn't bank on it. I have family in Naperville, which is part of DuPage County just outside Chicago. I visit there about once a year. In 2008, the Obama signs were everywhere and he took the county by a 55-44 margin. (In 2004, Bush won by about the same margin.)
Not this year. My family reports that Romney signs are popping up like weeds and nary an Obama sign is to be found. There are a million people in DuPage Country and Romney is likely to win there by double digits (as Bush/Cheney did in 2004).
I'm not predicting that Romney will win statewide but I'm certainly not ruling it out and we shouldn't write it off.
the obamanation cannot lose illinois, “the land of Lincoln”. I can guarantee that every rat and dead pub will rise from the grave and vote that it will never happen.
illinois is the most corrupt state in the union. run by the mafia.
blessings, bobo
In the least that will help the GOP hold more of the House seats than previously expected due to the redistricting skewed so heavily for the Dems.
I lived in Naperville for 20 years. It’s one of the reddest areas of the state. It’s where Cheney called Clymer a “Major League Asshole”
Since 100% of the precincts in Cook County are already counted, I suspect Obama is over the top in Illinois. Based on my Cook County entrance poll, I project Obama the winner in that state.
Very true - however, if you know anyone with a spare $1 billion for us to set up our own Super PAC (vs. having the RNC / Romney campaign and other current Super PACs divert resources from the key battlegrounds) as I said above, let me know...then we could experiment. ;-)
Actually if I remember correctly it was Bush that called him a major league asshole and Cheney replied “Big Time”
Actually Bush said that and Cheney said “Big Time.”
I agree. There is a whole lot of stupid in the Land of Lincoln.
Dang it - coffee through the nose does not feel good. Thanks for the laugh!
I think it is possible for him to lose Illinois. Chicago has an 11% unemployment rate and I think a lot of people are getting tired of his BS.
Illinois is in play.
The race baiting does not work either.
People know what is going on in Chicago and that the Dems are letting it happen in the name of race. They know nasty criminals will bring down cities in the US because people will move out and stay out. Before Rudy, NY city was sunk. Wall Street was looking to relocate because they could not recruit workers.
Liberalism is repeating itself economically and socially.
A favorite aunt died in May. She was a die hard Conservative and despised Obama. At her funeral, a cousin gave her eulogy and told all of us how she regretted not living long enough to vote against O. But, he said ,we think we’ve solved that problem by burying her in Chicago. This was a crowd from Boston so the reviews were mixed.
I grew up in the 11th ward, Mayor Daley’s ward.. On every election night, the faithful would gather and ballot boxes from GOP polls would come in and the new ballots were being filled out and the real ones were burned in 55 gal drums in the alley in the back..
There was a beer company, Nectar Beer, and bar, across the street, Halstead & 37th, that we kids would have to run back and forth to keep all of the workers in booze all night..
Obama is running ads in the Chicago area. None for Romney so far. Tells me there is a concern. Axelrod runs the campaign from the Prudential office building in Chicago.
http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/David-Axelrod-Interview/10737431868-1/
Obama is being taken to the wood shed and is fixing to be bent over the saw horse and given a good ol fashion a$$ whoopin’.
I am loving the scurring of his little rat handlers trying to fend off his first debate failure.
The spending of his war chest on ads in a state (Illinois) that he should have sewn up.
Head people in the Rat party that are either MIA or still putting their feet in their mouths
It is all gravy people, enjoy it.
And what do we have to look forward to next week, Ryan/Biden debate....
If Romney has a chance in Illinois, it will be because the people have finally woken up and realized what Democratic control has done to our state.
The State of Illinois is on the verge of bankruptcy and those in charge are in complete denial and running away from it as fast they can.
We have the highest gas prices in the country (at least until the gas crisis hit CA this week) and the worst business climate. Years of having this state run by the teachers unions and trial lawyers have finally taken its toll.
We can only hope.
It is just an interesting observation.
I live very near Naperville, IL (in fact I once lived there) in Downers Grove. Nary an Obama sign to be seen, in fact nary a sign to be seen at all. Weird election this time around. I know DuPage County where I live will go overwhelmingly for Romney, as well as most of the collar counties surrounding Chicago. I also have friends living in Cook County, and believe me, a whole bunch of them will be voting Romney as well. In fact, I suspect that Chicago is the place where Obama will get the vast majority of his votes, there and a few areas downstate. The rest of the state will go to Romney. The question is, will the collar counties along with the rural areas of IL and most of downstate be able to offset the City of Chicago plus a few downstate areas. It’s going to be close folks, very close.
“I lived in Naperville for 20 years. It’s one of the reddest areas of the state. It’s where Cheney called Clymer a “Major League Asshole””
I was at that rally. I loved Cheney then and I still love him now, cerebrally speaking. He’s my man.
Yep, you are right.
I don’t care about Obama winning Illinois or California. But I would love to see him have to pour money in there.
The Romney strategy right now should be to have Super Pacs expand the field, move into new markets such as Philly, Pittsburgh, LA, Minneapolis, move the needle and force Obama to react.
DRAIN OBAMA DRY. I am hearing that the GOP numbers for Sept will eclipse the Obama $181 million announced earlier today.
Yes, it’s where Cheney said “bigtime” which has become one of my favorite words when talking “politics”.
Obama should not be wasting money on ads in Chicago. That is very significant intel.
My Jewish friends in Wisconsin who voted for Obama in 2008 are supporting Romney this year.
That was a different Daley; and this time, Obama fired his son (William), or at least made being Chief of Staff so unpleasant that he quit.
100% correct! Bet the family farm on it. Too many of the 47% living there.
Absent some major event, NC is now out of reach for Obama and firming for Romney. Obama has baled on most advertising and the DCCC has yanked money for endangered Blue Dogs (Kissell?) - left to fend for themselves.
The Dems have problems in NC up and down the ballot. The GOP candidate for Gov is crusing to victory (open seat w retirement of brain dead Bev Perdue).
Very admirable for your hard work and recollections.
In 1968 Nixon refused to release Lake County until Daley reported the entirety of Cook County - wasn’t going to get burned twice.
Understandably in 1968 in the midst of a see-saw election night Pat Nixon refused to believe that her husband carried Illinois. It was only when she was completely assured that the Daley machine could not and would not overtake the GOP votes in Lake County did she cry with relief and happiness.
Julie Nixon Eisenhower has written a magnificient book about her mother.
I sure love hearing about the possibility that Obama just might lose Illinois!! If Obama, Gov.Quinn, and Durbin’s back door deal to bring GITMO terrorists to Thompson Prison gets attention.....who knows!!
The citizens of Illinois should be outraged about this:
Please see here:
AND FROM TWO YEARS AGO:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUQVUFBQ6NA
AND HERE IS THE FR THREAD:
I also live in DuPage County in Illinois and I have seen MANY Romney signs driving around and one or two Obozo signs. Could this mean something? Maybe.
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