Skip to comments.Obama’s jobs report isn't a conspiracy. But the figures are debatable and the recovery is dubious
Posted on 10/07/2012 5:59:50 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
......there are two problems with the administrations report. First,theres the question of what figure to use to calculate employment levels because there are two data sets available. One is the establishment survey, which is based on payrolls and puts the jobs gained at 114,000an unusually low number for this time of year. The second is the household survey, which is based on what people say they are doing at the moment. The household survey puts the jobs gained at 873,000an unusually high number for this time of year. In fact, the household figure is so high that its likely that its a statistical fluke. The problem is that the media is reporting the generous household figure rather than unkind establishment figure,and few outlets are willing to discuss the discrepancy between the two.
But you dont need to see a conspiracy to still remain pessimistic about the US labour market. The improvement in the unemployment rate is due to four unflattering factors.
1.More people are finding self-employment because they cant get a job in an existing business.
2.States are hiring more teachers.
3.Part time work is up.
4.Many folks have stopped looking for work and are no longer participating in the labour market.
One commentator describes the situation as the economy is merely moving sideways. Business is still having a hard time, so rather than enter the private workforce people are jumping on state payrolls or dropping out of the market. America needs to be creating roughly 250,000 jobs per month to achieve a genuine recovery. Instead,the economy is only returning to the miserable state it was in when Obama took over. For example, its great that half of the new jobs created were among women. But women also suffered the most during the recession, with roughly one million jobs lost since Obama was inaugurated....
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.telegraph.co.uk ...
So the folks across the Atlantic can see the fraud.
Oft times we need overseas media to find the truth. What an indictment of American LSM.
Kudlow was apoplectic that Jack Welch said these were cooked numbers. He believes what this report says that you posted...the economy is baaaaad and this is more likely a fluke than anything else. He believes they will be ultimately revised. He had on several conservative media economists to explain the numbers and the truth about the economy.
One of his experts said the last time the household survey produced such a massive increase was years and years ago when the economy was also GROWING AT 9% at the time. It’s unprecedented that while anemic growth happens, this indicator takes such a great leap.
Rather than charge fraud, the expert said it’s a hallmark of the Obama economy that when a number decreases such as unemployment, or the household survey increases in this case, instead of a sign of economic strength, the numbers reveal the ironic truth of ECONOMIC WEAKNESS.
The truest scandal from the numbers isn’t whether they were cooked...can’t be proven...but rather, that Obama runs around shouting lies to the ignorant and/or bought-off sychopants at his rallies, that these numbers are good news and prove his “policies are working”. BTW, what ARE his policies that are contributing to good news??? There aren’t any.
But there is legion of evidence for his policies that are strangling this economy.
I don’t understand the “conservatives” that are playing along with it on tv. I watched Dobbs make fun of Welch for questioning these ridiculous numbers. WTH?
The UK gives advise............when the mussies were misbehaving the britans were on the internet buying bats to protect themselves, obamacare is in effect people are neglected until dead in thier hospitals, and the UK manages to see Obamas jobs report as legit no conspiracy here move on. laugh out loud
EVERYONE can see it.
You are right.
There is NO GOOD NEWS.
Clint Eastwood: 'When someone isn't doing the job, we've got to let him go!'
Don’t know what Dobbs said, but Kudlow took the same view that Welch was wrong for saying this.
I’ll take a stab at why. There is no way to prove these numbers were cooked. But to say anyway that they were, makes the focus on charges of cooked numbers, unprovable.
Whereas, Kudlow’s point and those of his guests was that the numbers are flukes, misleading, paint an erroneous picture of a terrible economy, and they set about to explain why. Their explanations weren’t that difficult to follow. They were pretty simple.
Therefore, they think it’s a red herring to chase the cooked numbers theory when theory is all it would ever amount to.
They want to nail the bad economy.
They want to nail Obama for running around shouting lies to dumbed-down audiences that these numbers show economic progress, when nothing could be further from the truth.
People who believe in (unproven) conspiracies are considered nuts.
People who believe in far-fetched coincidences are considered naive.
The addition of a half-million part-time jobs last month is described as a “fluke” - not much different than a coincidence.
But a fluke has a 50/50 chance of occurring in a direction that favors or embarrasses the regime. And a fluke is as likely to occur in any month of the year as it is in the month before the election. And a part-time number like this is (as I understand it) a fluke of a magnitude that hasn’t been seen in years. Yeah, those could all be features of a coincidence, but I recall it being said of the Clinton’s “there’s no coincidences in politics”.
One person in BOL could massage the survey data to keep Solis happy - one doesn’t need a conspiracy. But calling any funny-business at BOL a “conspiracy” discourages discussion of the coincidences, just like calling folks who see problems in the BO birth document “birthers” moves that topic off the table as well.
Nobody wants to be thought of as a nut. But I guess they’re happy to be naive if that’s what passes as sophistication among those influenced by the MSM these days.
We’ve been “dancing” with this administration long enough to know the routine - the constantly touted “unexpected” is really so much old hat.
The link above includes diagram comparing Houshold survey job data and ADP survey of business.
But the blogger notes something else:
The number of non-institutional population going on disability has increased dramatically,as has the number of households on the SNAP (food stamp) program. In fact, the number of people going on disability since July 2010 has been larger than the decline in unemployment by near a quarter of a million!
Some telling figures Disabled workers 7/1 2010: 26 000 000
Unemployed 7/1 2010: 14 600 000
Sum: 40 600 000
Disabled workers 10/5 2012: 28 776 000
Unemployed 10/5 2012: 12 088 000
Sum: 40 864 000
Just a comment on the figures above. This is exactly the same thing that happened with us in Sweden after our big financial crash in the early 90s. The long term unemployed moved from the unemployment statistics to the long term disability ranks.
In our case it has taken decades to clean up that mess. The quicker you get going the more chance of getting even the people on disability back in work. However, if one waits too long, it will be a long uphill struggle.
That's the Dems' MO. Get people on the dole and keep 'em there. Make them vote for their government crumbs.
That's the terrible truth behind the socialism in our industrialized western nations.
“Obamas jobs report isn’t a conspiracy. But the figures are debatable and the recovery is dubious”
Pure BS.......for the last 3+ years the unemployment rate has been above 8%. They say in the last month 114,000 jobs created. When Bam took over the rate was 7.9%. So they conveniently do a bogus survey and come up an astronomical survery that says 800,000 jobs created. Sure! one month before the election, done by government workers, who 90% support Bam. Why hasn’t this survey been done before this? So now the rate is 7.8%, convenient for BAM. These Chi-town thugs make Al Capone look like a saint!
Here is the real clinker in the mix:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
Part time employment increased 600,000 people in September?
Some how I do not believe the BS for the BLS.
Another good column from John Kass.
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Forget the debate: Happy days (for Obama) are here again - October 7, 2012 - The presidential campaign is over. So pack it up, Mitt Romney. Forget about that post-debate bump in the polls. Just find a dog, put it on the roof and drive away.