Posted on 10/09/2012 6:53:29 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
Romney’s support is a bit more solid than the president’s at this point in time. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their minds. Forty-one percent (41%) are certain they will vote for Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.
Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now “certain” they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are certain they will vote for the president.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
Certain to vote for Obama....40%...he’s screwed.
Romney is going to win - end of story. I really believe that. There is no way the electorate will be similar to 2008 - Republicans will AT LEAST equal dems or be within a point and Romney is winning independents in nearly every poll I’ve seen, even the skewed, democratic ones. So..
95% of Republicans + 10% of Democrats + 55% of Independents
VS
5% of Republicans + 90% of Democrats + 45% of Independents
With an electorate that is:
36% Democrat
34% Republican
30% Independent
Do the math. Romney wins.
it ain't over till Barbra Streisand sings...
Does that show that Romney will at least win by 5% as a buffer against the fraudulent votes?
ACORN and various other Obama/ChicagoMobMachine/Rahm/Soros&ChavezCountingTheVotes etc...can all of that be countered with enough votes?
The GOP doesn't fight against any of that, and in fact courts the illegal immigrant alien criminal insurgent colonist voters which will virtually all vote for the Obama as he is paying them and the welfare/food stamp crowd to do so.
Thanks. Did you calculate it?
“SWING STATE POLL RELEASED! ROMNEY +2”
That number, by itself, means nothing.
What DOES “mean something” are the numbers in each of the battleground states.
Look at Rasmussen’s updated electoral map here:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
State by state, Romney leads in Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida.
Obama leads in Ohio (has reached 50% mark), Michigan (54%), Wisconsin (49%), Iowa (49%), Colorado (49%), New Mexico (51%), and Nevada (47%, but Romney close behind @ 45%).
Note: Rasmussen’s numbers for Pennsylvania look dated (he had Obama @ 51% in his last survey). Since then, PA looks a little better for Romney, but Obama still leads there.
Although things look good for Mr. Romney in the critical states of Florida and Virginia, without Ohio he has to find at least 18 more electoral votes from the other battleground states. Right now, looks like all he’s getting is four from New Hampshire.
The combination of Wisconsin and Colorado would put Romney over the top, but he needs both to make it and right now it looks unlikely that he’s going to get them. If Romney could edge out Obama in Pennsylvania, he could make it without WI and CO.
This is going to be a bitter fight to the end.
“it ain’t over till Barbra Streisand sings...”
I guess she has put on a little weight. Hahaha
It is 48-46 without leaders. Romney is doing better. And a big Romney night rolled off (Friday night, where R went from 2 down to 2 ahead), so last night must have been good for him as well.
Using ‘04 and ‘00 models.
>>ACORN and various other Obama/ChicagoMobMachine/Rahm/Soros&ChavezCountingTheVotes etc...can all of that be countered with enough votes?<<
They can’t do it in as many places as they used to be able to.
Yes, and that is excellent.
I was referring to the GOP on the national level, the big boys behind the curtain that won’t do something on a massive level against voter fraud.
Since ACORN was shut down and gently reprimanded for their illegal activities, they have opened up shop in virtually every state under different names.
Stronger than ever, and ignored by the GOP.
Don't underestimate Obama and his thugs or count on the GOP to fight them.
Romney will win Ohio.
Yes, he is using D+5. I used linear algebra to reverse-engineer the ratios on Sunday, and confirmed them in a post yesterday.
See here for the math. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2941780/posts?page=73#73
That would make it 54.4% for Romney. Even if Dems got 95% of their own, it would still be 50.6% Romney. And the Indy percentage (55) may be a cautiously low estimate.
Thank you. That is totally interesting. Honestly, using the historical and analytical data, one would have to guess that it would have to be around D+3, even though it points to a more even turnout.
The reason Obama does so well in national polls would be his huge margins in NY, CA, MD, DE, MA, IL, WA, etc.
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